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Game Preview: North Dakota State 12/22/11 & J.B.'s Jottings
The Gophers take on NDSU and freshman guard Lawrence Alexander
By J.B. Bauer
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/126047?referrer_id=388419
The Gophers (11-1) return to action against a familiar opponent after more than a week since their last game. North Dakota State (8-2, 1-1 Summit) will visit The Barn for a 7pm CT contest Thursday night. There is no live television for this game, but video is available via Gopher All-Access.
North Dakota State is 7-2 this season, excluding their 92-50 home victory over NAIA team Mayville St. this past Saturday. NDSU's most recent DI game was a 3-point loss on December 10 at Arizona State.
While head coach Saul Phillips' team is young, they should be able to compete in the Summit League this year and based on how their kids have progressed thus far, the Bison look like they could be a force in their conference over the next few years.
Last year, Minnesota trampled the Bison 84-65 thanks to a 24-point outing by senior Blake Hoffarber. While a number of the kids that will play Thursday for NDSU participated in that contest, most of them were freshman with just a few games under their belt. Their experience and roles are far different than last year. Several things to know about their team:
They've started four sophomores and one freshman in all of their games.
The heights of the starting lineup are: 6'1", 6'3", 6'7", 6'7" and 6'8".
A broken jaw had kept senior Eric Carlson out of competition until he made his first appearance of the year on Saturday. He had 4 points and 9 rebounds in 18 minutes off the bench.
Unlike many opponents the Gophers have seen this year, there isn't one or two primary go to guys. Each of the starters are involved in the offense and just as likely as the next guy to take the shot.
The Bison are generally not big on the three-point shot. 62% of their 3FGA have come from two players (starter Dylan Hale and reserve Mike Felt). While the team is shooting 37.9% from deep, all players excluding Felt are converting at just 32.7%.
NDSU isn't especially strong on offense or defense, but they've shot very well so far this year (53.0% eFG% against DI opponents) and have limited their opponents to an extremely low 42.1% eFG%.
Only one Bison opponent has shot better than 44.2% eFG% this year (San Francisco, 49.1%). The only time the Gophers have shot less than 44.2% eFG% was in their opener against Bucknell (42.7%) and Minnesota has failed to shoot 50.0% eFG% or better in just two games all season.
Coach Phillips has consistently had teams that limit the frequency of turnovers and that is again true this season. There have been two rough games where the turnover rate was quite high this year, but I don't expect turnovers to be a big issue for NDSU on Thursday.
There are seven Bison from the state of Minnesota.
NDSU loves to take charges.
Ultimately this one, like most games, will come down to shooting. Minnesota should certainly win, however North Dakota State is a far better team than anyone faced by the Gophers during their 4-0 December performance. There are a lot of people feeling good about the post-Mbakwe-injury-Gophers and that's fine - Minnesota is 5-0. Remember, though, Minnesota's competition has been poor except for Virginia Tech, who nearly upset the Gophers. It is extremely important for the U to win on Thursday and finish the nonconference portion of the schedule with a 12-1 record.
#3 Mike Felt
6'3" 185 SO
Felt comes off the bench, but gets solid minutes. He's a shooter and a serious threat from the outside. When he puts it up, there's a great chance it's going to go in. Gophers can't give him any space or they'll pay for it. Averaging 11.0 points in just under 22 minutes per game. Felt has hit 46.8% of his 3FGA (29/62) this year and proved last year he can convert at that rate for a full season (42/89 for 47.2% in 2010-11).
#22 Lawrence Alexander
6'3" 175 FR
This freshman guard has been terrific. He's a nifty player with fairly long arms, averaging 11.3 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.4 rpg, and 2.1 spg. He can drive to the bucket or take the jump shot and is a good passer who has not turned the ball over much. He's too skilled to sit back and just take threes, but is capable of hitting them (7/23 for 30.4%). Late bloomer; great addition to the NDSU program. Alexander went to Peoria Manual HS in Illinois and spent last year in the new prep program at St. John's Northwestern Military Academy in Delafield, WI.
#42 Marshall Bjorkland
6'8" 240 SO
Was a star player for Sibley East HS in Arlington, MN and now is the post player for the Bison. He's averaging 11.7 points and 6.3 rebounds per game this year after being a good contributor as a freshman (8.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg). Bjorkland is excellent on the offensive boards. When he shoots, it's because he has a good shot available (he's flirting with a 70% FG%, but does not have much range). Could be a real headache for Minnesota.
#24 Taylor Braun
6'7" 205 SO
Good size gives Braun great versatility. Defensively can matchup against multiple positions. With the ball, he can shoot from the outside, but also slash to the inside. Braun is averaging a team-high 14.1 ppg while pulling down 6.4 rpg. Just 6/14 from deep, but capable. He can shoot, dribble and pass well, is good rebounder and draws contact from the defense. Capable of having a big night.
#25 Eric Carlson
6'6" 220 SR
Broke his jaw in an exhibition game about 7 weeks ago and saw his first game action on Saturday. Last year Carlson averaged 10.1 ppg and 4.5 rpg, down from 14.8 ppg and 6.9 rpg as a sophomore.
Carlson has a lot of experience and is capable of rebounding, but hasn't proven to be a very efficient offensive weapon. He played with former Gopher Jamal Abu-Shamala at Shakopee HS, including the 2005 state championship team (Eric was a sophomore, Jamal a senior).
#32 TrayVonn Wright
6'7" 180 SO
Wright is the athlete on the team and possesses good ups and length. TrayVonn is very good as a shot blocker and uses his physical tools to rebound, but his shooting is suspect. He's averaging 8.5 ppg and 6.2 rpg.
#21 Dylan Hale
6'1" 175 SO
Lefty from the Twin Cities started off at Texas State. After a year, he transferred to NDSU and sat out in 2010-11. Hale is averaging 6.2 ppg, but shooting just 29.0% overall, including 25.6% 3FG (11/43). The former Washburn (where he teamed with Gopher football TE-turned-DE Ra'Shede Hageman) and St. Paul Central talent won't let his poor shooting deter him from trying on Thursday -- Minnesota just can't let him get back on track. At Texas State, Hale shot 35.3% from deep (36/102).
J.B.'s Jottings
Minnesota opens the Big Ten season with a game in Champaign on Tuesday, December 27. #25/#24 Illinois is 11-1 this year, with their only blemish being a 64-46 loss to UNLV in Chicago this past Saturday. The Illini bounced back to handle Cornell 64-60 Monday night with the help of 19 points and a career-high 16 rebounds by emerging sophomore Meyers Leonard. It's possible Illinois will be pushed out of the Top 25 by the time they face Minnesota, as they play a very good #9/#8 Missouri team in St. Louis on Thursday (8pm CT start time on ESPN2).
In July 2010, the North Dakota Board of Higher Education approved a $32 million fundraising campaign for the renovation and expansion of the Bison Sports Arena. The project plans include a new basketball court, bleachers and practice gym, a new athlete weight training area and expanded locker rooms. More than $20 million has been raised and construction is expected to take 2 years once it begins.
Dope Duo - Here, I'll name the two players who contributed the most to the Gophers in each game, based on calculations which are consistently applied to each game and player. These calculations result in a measurement of player performance - not necessarily the best single measurement, but it will be calculated consistently and objectively. The Dope Duo for the Central Michigan game was Julian Welch (15 pts, 4 ast, 1 reb, season-high 2 blks, 5/9 FG (1/3 3FG), 4/4 FT in 25 min) and Joe Coleman (season-high 12 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl, 4/5 FG (1/1 3FG), 3/4 FT in 15 min).
Rodney Williams continues to carry a high offensive rating, but his usage numbers remain low (only Elliason and Ingram are used in fewer of the team's possessions when they are on the court). As much as people talk about him "moving to power forward", I think he's looked frustrated more often than not when trying to post up inside. It won't get anymore comfortable in Big Ten play. The competition gets bigger, stronger and more physical. His points will continue to come from transition opportunities, cuts to the basket where a nice pass is delivered and offensive boards. That said, he will have games like the Central Michigan contest in which he only put up 3 shots (and went to the line for 2 FTA). Nonetheless, he's still a huge weapon when he's rebounding, blocking shots and passing as well as he did against the Chippewas.
Listed below are a few field goal shooting statistics comparing current year to date to 2010-11 nonconference games:
Minnesota has allowed an eFG% of 46.9%, up slightly from 46.5% allowed in nonconference games last season. Opponent 2FG% is 41.8% compared to 41.5% a year ago and 3FG% has risen to 37.9% from 36.0%. Part of the negative impact of the increased 3FG% is offset by teams shooting three-pointers less frequently. This season, 33.7% of the opposition's shots have been three-pointers, whereas last year that figure was a very high 40.5%.
The Gophers have shot the ball better this year, with their eFG% at a highly respectable 54.1%, up from 52.1% last year. Both their 2FG% (54.7% vs. 52.2%) and 3FG% (34.8% vs. 34.6%) have improved. Though the percent of made three-point shots has risen, three-pointers have reduced eFG% due to Minnesota taking fewer shots from beyond the arc. Just 25.5% of the team's field goal attempts are three-pointers, while last year 32.0% of the time Minnesota was shooting from distance.
In conference play, Minnesota's two-point field goal shooting will decrease, however I think they could maintain their three-point field goal percentage. Prior to the season beginning, I forecasted Austin Hollins and Julian Welch to lead the team in three-pointers made and to date, that has occurred. However, combined they have made only 25 three-pointers and this team could use more. I'd give those two as well as Oto Osenieks and, at times, Andre Hollins the OK to launch more often.
The top two shooters (eFG%) for Minnesota so far this year (excluding Trevor Mbakwe's 60.4% ) have been Rodney Williams (63.3%, which is ridiculously good) and Julian Welch 57.8%. Only two players are shooting less than 50% (Chip Armelin at 48.5% and Maverick Ahanmisi at 47.2%).
As expected, the pace of play has slowed compared to last year despite Tubby Smith's "plan to get back to playing pressure defense and run a fast-break style offense". By my estimates, average possessions for Minnesota this year are 63.8 per game, down from 69.7 in last year's nonconference games (note: these figures will be slightly different from kenpom.com's raw tempo numbers because my calculation is a tiny bit more precise). Adjusting those estimates for schedule, considering the preferred pace of each opponent and when each game was played, the gap becomes slightly larger (65.5 and 72.2, respectively).
The Gophers take on NDSU and freshman guard Lawrence Alexander
By J.B. Bauer
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/126047?referrer_id=388419
The Gophers (11-1) return to action against a familiar opponent after more than a week since their last game. North Dakota State (8-2, 1-1 Summit) will visit The Barn for a 7pm CT contest Thursday night. There is no live television for this game, but video is available via Gopher All-Access.
North Dakota State is 7-2 this season, excluding their 92-50 home victory over NAIA team Mayville St. this past Saturday. NDSU's most recent DI game was a 3-point loss on December 10 at Arizona State.
While head coach Saul Phillips' team is young, they should be able to compete in the Summit League this year and based on how their kids have progressed thus far, the Bison look like they could be a force in their conference over the next few years.
Last year, Minnesota trampled the Bison 84-65 thanks to a 24-point outing by senior Blake Hoffarber. While a number of the kids that will play Thursday for NDSU participated in that contest, most of them were freshman with just a few games under their belt. Their experience and roles are far different than last year. Several things to know about their team:
They've started four sophomores and one freshman in all of their games.
The heights of the starting lineup are: 6'1", 6'3", 6'7", 6'7" and 6'8".
A broken jaw had kept senior Eric Carlson out of competition until he made his first appearance of the year on Saturday. He had 4 points and 9 rebounds in 18 minutes off the bench.
Unlike many opponents the Gophers have seen this year, there isn't one or two primary go to guys. Each of the starters are involved in the offense and just as likely as the next guy to take the shot.
The Bison are generally not big on the three-point shot. 62% of their 3FGA have come from two players (starter Dylan Hale and reserve Mike Felt). While the team is shooting 37.9% from deep, all players excluding Felt are converting at just 32.7%.
NDSU isn't especially strong on offense or defense, but they've shot very well so far this year (53.0% eFG% against DI opponents) and have limited their opponents to an extremely low 42.1% eFG%.
Only one Bison opponent has shot better than 44.2% eFG% this year (San Francisco, 49.1%). The only time the Gophers have shot less than 44.2% eFG% was in their opener against Bucknell (42.7%) and Minnesota has failed to shoot 50.0% eFG% or better in just two games all season.
Coach Phillips has consistently had teams that limit the frequency of turnovers and that is again true this season. There have been two rough games where the turnover rate was quite high this year, but I don't expect turnovers to be a big issue for NDSU on Thursday.
There are seven Bison from the state of Minnesota.
NDSU loves to take charges.
Ultimately this one, like most games, will come down to shooting. Minnesota should certainly win, however North Dakota State is a far better team than anyone faced by the Gophers during their 4-0 December performance. There are a lot of people feeling good about the post-Mbakwe-injury-Gophers and that's fine - Minnesota is 5-0. Remember, though, Minnesota's competition has been poor except for Virginia Tech, who nearly upset the Gophers. It is extremely important for the U to win on Thursday and finish the nonconference portion of the schedule with a 12-1 record.
#3 Mike Felt
6'3" 185 SO
Felt comes off the bench, but gets solid minutes. He's a shooter and a serious threat from the outside. When he puts it up, there's a great chance it's going to go in. Gophers can't give him any space or they'll pay for it. Averaging 11.0 points in just under 22 minutes per game. Felt has hit 46.8% of his 3FGA (29/62) this year and proved last year he can convert at that rate for a full season (42/89 for 47.2% in 2010-11).
#22 Lawrence Alexander
6'3" 175 FR
This freshman guard has been terrific. He's a nifty player with fairly long arms, averaging 11.3 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.4 rpg, and 2.1 spg. He can drive to the bucket or take the jump shot and is a good passer who has not turned the ball over much. He's too skilled to sit back and just take threes, but is capable of hitting them (7/23 for 30.4%). Late bloomer; great addition to the NDSU program. Alexander went to Peoria Manual HS in Illinois and spent last year in the new prep program at St. John's Northwestern Military Academy in Delafield, WI.
#42 Marshall Bjorkland
6'8" 240 SO
Was a star player for Sibley East HS in Arlington, MN and now is the post player for the Bison. He's averaging 11.7 points and 6.3 rebounds per game this year after being a good contributor as a freshman (8.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg). Bjorkland is excellent on the offensive boards. When he shoots, it's because he has a good shot available (he's flirting with a 70% FG%, but does not have much range). Could be a real headache for Minnesota.
#24 Taylor Braun
6'7" 205 SO
Good size gives Braun great versatility. Defensively can matchup against multiple positions. With the ball, he can shoot from the outside, but also slash to the inside. Braun is averaging a team-high 14.1 ppg while pulling down 6.4 rpg. Just 6/14 from deep, but capable. He can shoot, dribble and pass well, is good rebounder and draws contact from the defense. Capable of having a big night.
#25 Eric Carlson
6'6" 220 SR
Broke his jaw in an exhibition game about 7 weeks ago and saw his first game action on Saturday. Last year Carlson averaged 10.1 ppg and 4.5 rpg, down from 14.8 ppg and 6.9 rpg as a sophomore.
Carlson has a lot of experience and is capable of rebounding, but hasn't proven to be a very efficient offensive weapon. He played with former Gopher Jamal Abu-Shamala at Shakopee HS, including the 2005 state championship team (Eric was a sophomore, Jamal a senior).
#32 TrayVonn Wright
6'7" 180 SO
Wright is the athlete on the team and possesses good ups and length. TrayVonn is very good as a shot blocker and uses his physical tools to rebound, but his shooting is suspect. He's averaging 8.5 ppg and 6.2 rpg.
#21 Dylan Hale
6'1" 175 SO
Lefty from the Twin Cities started off at Texas State. After a year, he transferred to NDSU and sat out in 2010-11. Hale is averaging 6.2 ppg, but shooting just 29.0% overall, including 25.6% 3FG (11/43). The former Washburn (where he teamed with Gopher football TE-turned-DE Ra'Shede Hageman) and St. Paul Central talent won't let his poor shooting deter him from trying on Thursday -- Minnesota just can't let him get back on track. At Texas State, Hale shot 35.3% from deep (36/102).
J.B.'s Jottings
Minnesota opens the Big Ten season with a game in Champaign on Tuesday, December 27. #25/#24 Illinois is 11-1 this year, with their only blemish being a 64-46 loss to UNLV in Chicago this past Saturday. The Illini bounced back to handle Cornell 64-60 Monday night with the help of 19 points and a career-high 16 rebounds by emerging sophomore Meyers Leonard. It's possible Illinois will be pushed out of the Top 25 by the time they face Minnesota, as they play a very good #9/#8 Missouri team in St. Louis on Thursday (8pm CT start time on ESPN2).
In July 2010, the North Dakota Board of Higher Education approved a $32 million fundraising campaign for the renovation and expansion of the Bison Sports Arena. The project plans include a new basketball court, bleachers and practice gym, a new athlete weight training area and expanded locker rooms. More than $20 million has been raised and construction is expected to take 2 years once it begins.
Dope Duo - Here, I'll name the two players who contributed the most to the Gophers in each game, based on calculations which are consistently applied to each game and player. These calculations result in a measurement of player performance - not necessarily the best single measurement, but it will be calculated consistently and objectively. The Dope Duo for the Central Michigan game was Julian Welch (15 pts, 4 ast, 1 reb, season-high 2 blks, 5/9 FG (1/3 3FG), 4/4 FT in 25 min) and Joe Coleman (season-high 12 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl, 4/5 FG (1/1 3FG), 3/4 FT in 15 min).
Rodney Williams continues to carry a high offensive rating, but his usage numbers remain low (only Elliason and Ingram are used in fewer of the team's possessions when they are on the court). As much as people talk about him "moving to power forward", I think he's looked frustrated more often than not when trying to post up inside. It won't get anymore comfortable in Big Ten play. The competition gets bigger, stronger and more physical. His points will continue to come from transition opportunities, cuts to the basket where a nice pass is delivered and offensive boards. That said, he will have games like the Central Michigan contest in which he only put up 3 shots (and went to the line for 2 FTA). Nonetheless, he's still a huge weapon when he's rebounding, blocking shots and passing as well as he did against the Chippewas.
Listed below are a few field goal shooting statistics comparing current year to date to 2010-11 nonconference games:
Minnesota has allowed an eFG% of 46.9%, up slightly from 46.5% allowed in nonconference games last season. Opponent 2FG% is 41.8% compared to 41.5% a year ago and 3FG% has risen to 37.9% from 36.0%. Part of the negative impact of the increased 3FG% is offset by teams shooting three-pointers less frequently. This season, 33.7% of the opposition's shots have been three-pointers, whereas last year that figure was a very high 40.5%.
The Gophers have shot the ball better this year, with their eFG% at a highly respectable 54.1%, up from 52.1% last year. Both their 2FG% (54.7% vs. 52.2%) and 3FG% (34.8% vs. 34.6%) have improved. Though the percent of made three-point shots has risen, three-pointers have reduced eFG% due to Minnesota taking fewer shots from beyond the arc. Just 25.5% of the team's field goal attempts are three-pointers, while last year 32.0% of the time Minnesota was shooting from distance.
In conference play, Minnesota's two-point field goal shooting will decrease, however I think they could maintain their three-point field goal percentage. Prior to the season beginning, I forecasted Austin Hollins and Julian Welch to lead the team in three-pointers made and to date, that has occurred. However, combined they have made only 25 three-pointers and this team could use more. I'd give those two as well as Oto Osenieks and, at times, Andre Hollins the OK to launch more often.
The top two shooters (eFG%) for Minnesota so far this year (excluding Trevor Mbakwe's 60.4% ) have been Rodney Williams (63.3%, which is ridiculously good) and Julian Welch 57.8%. Only two players are shooting less than 50% (Chip Armelin at 48.5% and Maverick Ahanmisi at 47.2%).
As expected, the pace of play has slowed compared to last year despite Tubby Smith's "plan to get back to playing pressure defense and run a fast-break style offense". By my estimates, average possessions for Minnesota this year are 63.8 per game, down from 69.7 in last year's nonconference games (note: these figures will be slightly different from kenpom.com's raw tempo numbers because my calculation is a tiny bit more precise). Adjusting those estimates for schedule, considering the preferred pace of each opponent and when each game was played, the gap becomes slightly larger (65.5 and 72.2, respectively).
