Fresno 2nd best Big Ten win

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Would it be difficult for someone to re-do the average recruiting rankings by only taking the top 10 or top 15 players per class into account? Probably too much work, oh well.
 

dpodoll68 said:
They aren't. In 2017 (not holding it against him, just pointing it out) we finished 6th out of 7 Big Ten West teams in the 247 composite. In 2018 (Fleck's first full class), we finished 2nd in the West, but 3rd in average recruit ranking - we placed ahead of wisconsin in the overall rankings because we had 25 recruits to their 20. In 2019, again we are rated highly in September because Fleck gets a lot of early commits. And even with this inflation, we're still currently 3rd in the Big Ten West, behind Nebraska and Purdue. We're barely ahead of wisconsin at the moment, and we have 24 commits to their 13. Right now, our average recruit rating is 13th in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers. Unless we get some massive ratings revisions upward, we will again finish 5th or 6th in the Big Ten West like we did in 2017.

These 2017-2019 classes will be the backbone of the team in 2020 and 2021, Fleck's 4th/5th years when we should be rolling and finding out whether he can win big here. This is not to say that he can't win big here with this level of recruiting, because he certainly can - it's just that the upgraded talent level (at least on paper) is a myth.
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While everything you said is true, I will argue the upgraded talent is clearly passing the eye test. Our QB and WR play is so much better than it was, it is barely worth comparing.
 

Sparlimb said:
While everything you said is true, I will argue the upgraded talent is clearly passing the eye test. Our QB and WR play is so much better than it was, it is barely worth comparing.
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Or the smell test.......our QB and WR’s don’t stink.
 


dpodoll68 said:
They aren't. In 2017 (not holding it against him, just pointing it out) we finished 6th out of 7 Big Ten West teams in the 247 composite. In 2018 (Fleck's first full class), we finished 2nd in the West, but 3rd in average recruit ranking - we placed ahead of wisconsin in the overall rankings because we had 25 recruits to their 20. In 2019, again we are rated highly in September because Fleck gets a lot of early commits. And even with this inflation, we're still currently 3rd in the Big Ten West, behind Nebraska and Purdue. We're barely ahead of wisconsin at the moment, and we have 24 commits to their 13. Right now, our average recruit rating is 13th in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers. Unless we get some massive ratings revisions upward, we will again finish 5th or 6th in the Big Ten West like we did in 2017.

These 2017-2019 classes will be the backbone of the team in 2020 and 2021, Fleck's 4th/5th years when we should be rolling and finding out whether he can win big here. This is not to say that he can't win big here with this level of recruiting, because he certainly can - it's just that the upgraded talent level (at least on paper) is a myth.
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That's not really how it works. 247 basically weights the class according to the top ranked players, and we had more highly rated recruits than Wisconsin. We had 5 over .88, they had 2 over .88. If you look at their curve, anything beyond the top 16 commits matter very little. Wisconsin was slightly ahead of us on Rivals, but their rankings are a little different. We actually had a higher average, but they still only rank the teams according to the top 20 commits. Anything beyond that doesn't matter.
 


This last page or so sort of illustrates the absurdity of living and dying on recruting rankings. Subtracting out players, collating to starters only etc. If you do that to MN you have to do that for our competitors. The classes PJ is bringing in have a chance to be competitive with the top tier talent teams and for the next several years at least that’s the best we can ask for. Things are trending up.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
That's not really how it works. 247 basically weights the class according to the top ranked players, and we had more highly rated recruits than Wisconsin. We had 5 over .88, they had 2 over .88. If you look at their curve, anything beyond the top 16 commits matter very little. Wisconsin was slightly ahead of us on Rivals, but their rankings are a little different. We actually had a higher average, but they still only rank the teams according to the top 20 commits. Anything beyond that doesn't matter.
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I'm pretty sure that is how it works. Do you have anything to support your statement that the rankings are based only on the top 20 commits? Here's an image tweeted by Shannon Terry, 247Sports Founder/CEO:

B9BxaevIMAImW7D.png


To quote, "c is a specific team's total number of commits." It doesn't say "c is a specific team's total number of commits up to a maximum of 20."

And, if you go in and play around with the class calculator, you'll see that dropping players from the bottom of our class reduces our class score. Right now, we're 30th in the country with 24 commits and a class score of 192.18. If you pretend that the bottom 4 didn't happen, it puts us at 189.37, which drops us down to 31st and barely ahead of wisconsin at 32.

The bottom recruits definitely don't move the rankings as much as the top recruits, but they do impact the score.
 


dpodoll68 said:
I'm pretty sure that is how it works. Do you have anything to support your statement that the rankings are based only on the top 20 commits? Here's an image tweeted by Shannon Terry, 247Sports Founder/CEO:

B9BxaevIMAImW7D.png


To quote, "c is a specific team's total number of commits." It doesn't say "c is a specific team's total number of commits up to a maximum of 20."

And, if you go in and play around with the class calculator, you'll see that dropping players from the bottom of our class reduces our class score. Right now, we're 30th in the country with 24 commits and a class score of 192.18. If you pretend that the bottom 4 didn't happen, it puts us at 189.37, which drops us down to 31st and barely ahead of wisconsin at 32.

The bottom recruits definitely don't move the rankings as much as the top recruits, but they do impact the score.
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You weren't clear on what rankings you were using. Rivals does not consider more than 20 in their team rankings and states that in their method.

247 doesn't specify a maximum, but as you can see by what you posted, it tails off significantly once you get to 16+. You are right that removing the bottom recruits does change the class ranking, but your quote is 'we placed ahead of wisconsin in the overall rankings because we had 25 recruits to their 20.' That's not always the case. Currently only 2 spots separate Georgia and Texas A&M, with A&M being lower even though they have 25 recruits compared to Georgia's 19.
 




dpodoll68 said:
They aren't. In 2017 (not holding it against him, just pointing it out) we finished 6th out of 7 Big Ten West teams in the 247 composite. In 2018 (Fleck's first full class), we finished 2nd in the West, but 3rd in average recruit ranking - we placed ahead of wisconsin in the overall rankings because we had 25 recruits to their 20. In 2019, again we are rated highly in September because Fleck gets a lot of early commits. And even with this inflation, we're still currently 3rd in the Big Ten West, behind Nebraska and Purdue. We're barely ahead of wisconsin at the moment, and we have 24 commits to their 13. Right now, our average recruit rating is 13th in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers. Unless we get some massive ratings revisions upward, we will again finish 5th or 6th in the Big Ten West like we did in 2017.

These 2017-2019 classes will be the backbone of the team in 2020 and 2021, Fleck's 4th/5th years when we should be rolling and finding out whether he can win big here. This is not to say that he can't win big here with this level of recruiting, because he certainly can - it's just that the upgraded talent level (at least on paper) is a myth.
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Composite ratings in both ‘17 and ‘18 showed no clear separation for any team in the West... We aren’t getting 3 star guys while Purdue pulls in 5 star guys. I expect the last couple of players in ‘19 will bump us up, and I do not hold a long snapper or kicker against Fleck as Special Teams can make or break a game (ask Daniel Carlson).
 

PoockItInfor6 said:
Composite ratings in both ‘17 and ‘18 showed no clear separation for any team in the West... We aren’t getting 3 star guys while Purdue pulls in 5 star guys. I expect the last couple of players in ‘19 will bump us up, and I do not hold a long snapper or kicker against Fleck as Special Teams can make or break a game (ask Daniel Carlson).
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I’m enjoying the ride, I expect you’ll be soon enough.
 

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