Fraschilla: One Top 40 program coach told me last week that they will no longer recruit HS players but will live in the transfer portal.

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As long as you feel you can consistently draw players of a high enough level to keep you relevant then it isn't a terrible way to go. At least you have a much better idea of what kind of player you are getting.
 







UpAndUnder43 said:
He won’t because that conversation never happened.
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Jeff Goodman said almost the identical thing in a podcast over 2 months ago. Some coaches are saying it. It's surely a little dramatic, but why not if you're a power five and can pull guys who've been developed already. It's a better version of getting one and dones out of high school
 

The other reason I think more coaches will do this is they know with the one time free transfer, the odds of a kid sticking around 4 years is next to none. He isn't happy with his role or doesn't like another player he's gone. If you get a transfer, if he is unhappy then he has to decide ok am I going to a 3rd school plus missing a year? That will obviously happen, but I think far less than another kid who knows he can play next year for sure.
 



leib0039 said:
The other reason I think more coaches will do this is they know with the one time free transfer, the odds of a kid sticking around 4 years is next to none. He isn't happy with his role or doesn't like another player he's gone. If you get a transfer, if he is unhappy then he has to decide ok am I going to a 3rd school plus missing a year? That will obviously happen, but I think far less than another kid who knows he can play next year for sure.
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Yeah. A lot more penalty for transferring if you’ve already transferred. Easier to keep a guy as a role player who has already transferred.
 


This seems similar to the way college hockey functions. Many of the smaller schools pluck from the USHL after those kids have played a few years past high school. It's worked to keep teams like Minnesota from dominating with the best out of high school kids.
 

Will the fans still be interested in the new college basketball? Anecdotally, most of the casual fans I know are losing interest pretty fast. I guess we will see.
 



WoodburyTim said:
Will the fans still be interested in the new college basketball? Anecdotally, most of the casual fans I know are losing interest pretty fast. I guess we will see.
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D1A and D1AA like football.
 


WoodburyTim said:
Will the fans still be interested in the new college basketball? Anecdotally, most of the casual fans I know are losing interest pretty fast. I guess we will see.
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Are casual fans even paying any attention to the transfer portal? The ones I know aren't. I mentioned to a couple that the Gophers had one guy returning and they thought I was joking.
 

“Top 40 program coach” = assistant coach. If it was a head coach he would have said head coach. And who really cares what some random assistant coach said?
 


It's the majority of coaches who feel this way. It's reality. Times change. Adapt or die.
In football PJ went hard after transfers and still is for the coming season. He has said he'll take less high school recruits.
College basketball will do the same. You miss on some guy and tie up a scholarship for four years and it sucks. Lots of benefits to transfers in 2021. They can play right away in almost all cases. Much less guess work. You don't have to wait as long for them to add strength, develop skills, or become acclimated to college life etc etc Plug and play. After the Top 100 why take the chance?
Even then, not all those guys contribute.
Gophers had a bunch of Top 150 recruits who were ordinary.
 


There is a transfer portal bubble right now because of COVID, no doubt. But I think it would be hard to win consistently using that method.
 

I still wonder how big the transfer portal will be next year. A decent number of players in the portal normally would be done playing college basketball, if not for COVID, including new Gophers Luke Loewe and E.J. Stephens. I look at Kentucky, who gets McDonald's All-American by the bagful and future first rounders, yet they have failed to make the NCAA tournament twice in the past nine years. So, I find it hard to believe that a team can rebuild on a regular basis and expect to be successful year-in and year-out. Look at the Gophers last season. They add three D1 transfers to a team that had another ex-D1 standout and finished 13th in the conference. I know that they had injury issues, but I'm not convinced that you can live with transfers alone.
 

howeda7 said:
Are casual fans even paying any attention to the transfer portal? The ones I know aren't. I mentioned to a couple that the Gophers had one guy returning and they thought I was joking.
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I'm sometimes convinced that the only things a casual basketball fan sees are dunks, made 3-pointers, acrobatic drives to the rim and blocked shots. I don't think many of them notice any of the other things it takes to be a good basketball player or team.

Oh, they also seem to notice terrible calls by the referee, but only the ones that go against my team, which is the standard by which you judge a terrible call. :)
 

Chris Monter said:
I still wonder how big the transfer portal will be next year. A decent number of players in the portal normally would be done playing college basketball, if not for COVID, including new Gophers Luke Loewe and E.J. Stephens. I look at Kentucky, who gets McDonald's All-American by the bagful and future first rounders, yet they have failed to make the NCAA tournament twice in the past nine years. So, I find it hard to believe that a team can rebuild on a regular basis and expect to be successful year-in and year-out. Look at the Gophers last season. They add three D1 transfers to a team that had another ex-D1 standout and finished 13th in the conference. I know that they had injury issues, but I'm not convinced that you can live with transfers alone.
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It won't be as big this year, but there were be a several year bubble due to the "free year". There will just be a ton more people who have eligibility post-graduation and/or will be more willing to transfer and sit out a year because of an "extra" year.
 

It was already getting weird, but the weirdness deepems. Like Chris, I think and hope it'll stabilize and settle at a tolerable equilibrium, but there's no telling.
 

howeda7 said:
Are casual fans even paying any attention to the transfer portal? The ones I know aren't. I mentioned to a couple that the Gophers had one guy returning and they thought I was joking.
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No they aren't. That's my point.
 

I think some of this might be an over-reaction.

As others have noted, this year is a unique situation. This is the first year that players can take advantage of the new transfer rule, and you also have a lot of players who picked up an extra year of eligibility due to covid, so there are an unusual number of grad transfers taking place.

In future years, there will be transfers, but remember, you only get one "free" transfer. If Fred Farkle transfers from Podunk U to Directional State, he's eligible immediately. But after that, if Fred decides he wants to transfer to Mid-Major Tech, then he has to sit out a year.

so, in future years, I suspect there will be transfers, but it will be from the pool of guys who are the 9th, 10th, or 11th options on their original teams. In other words, guys that might have some talent, but landed in the wrong system or wrong situation - decent players, but not program changers. I don't think you'll see a lot of starters transferring unless there is a coaching change or something of that ilk.
 

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