Four B1G Ones Coming - Tournament Seeds Final Run - Gophers Defense and Offense System Explained Too

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tripledouble said:
You're right. And, if my memory is correct, K State was the top seed in that regional. Also, I recall that the NCAA tried neutral sites for the first round of the NCAA tourney before they opted to use top 16 seeds as sites. With the explosion of women's basketball popularity, maybe we see them go back to neutral sites in the future. I'm okay with the current system...at least for now.
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To be fair, pretty much everyone agreed that the Gophers were not really a 7 seed. The seed was based on all of the losses the Gophers racked up while Whalen was hurt and uncertainty about whether she'd even be able to return at full strength -- which, we found out in that UCLA game, she really did.
 

ESPN has Tennessee listed as a 5 seed and they just lost to a terrible A&M team. I bet they have us on a 5 line when the next one comes out.
Heck it wouldn’t shock me to see us on a 4 line with a Sunday win.
Just keep winning!
 





MaroonMagic said:
I'm just hoping that if we get a double bye in the Big Ten tournament we don't somehow end up facing Washington as our first opponent. Our 0-3 record with them over the last two seasons and the relative blowouts make me think that Tina Langley just knows how to beat Coach P. I would be so nervous to face them again, even if we would have Tori back for that game.
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Doing my own digging, OSU & MST are the most likely opponent in BIG tourny if we win out. If MI beats IA, we would be #3 seed, meaning we'd play the #6 seed, assuming #6 wins the day before. But there is a realistic path for WASH to jump up to #6 if their cards fall right.
WASH also makes me nervous, but I think we are better now than then, especially w/ Tori. It would be nice to break that streak.
 

We will start with the assumption Minnesota gets a double bye. Other Big Ten teams finish the regular season as most likely outcomes of games, Michigan State losing down the stretch.

Minnesota enters as the #3 seed following their regular-season-ending wins over Michigan State and Illinois.

Quarterfinals: #3 Minnesota vs. #6 Maryland
  • Result: Minnesota 81, Maryland 79 (OT)
  • The Matchup: The Gophers finally overcome the Terrapins’ pressure. Trailing by 6 with two minutes left, Minnesota forces two turnovers and hits a buzzer-beating jumper to send it to overtime. In the extra period, the Gophers’ defense holds Maryland scoreless for the final 90 seconds. This win is a massive "monkey off the back" and surges Minnesota's NET ranking to #7.

Semifinals: #3 Minnesota vs. #2 Michigan
  • Result: Minnesota 74, Michigan 66
  • The Matchup: Carrying momentum from the Maryland win, Minnesota plays their most complete game of the season. They out-rebound the Wolverines and exploit their bench depth. By defeating the #2 team in the conference, the Gophers have officially played their way onto the 3-seed line in nearly every bracketology projection.

Championship: #3 Minnesota vs. #1 UCLA
  • Result: UCLA 77, Minnesota 64
  • The Matchup: The Bruins remain the one puzzle Minnesota can't solve. UCLA’s transition game is too fast, and they pull away in the fourth quarter. Despite the loss, Minnesota leaves Indianapolis as the tournament runners-up with a 23–7 record.


NCAA Tournament Projection: The Sacramento Regional
With a deep conference run and wins over every top Big Ten team except UCLA, the Selection Committee places Minnesota as the #3 seed in the Sacramento Regional.

The First Round Matchup:
As a 3 seed, Minnesota hosts the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena. Their projected opponent is the #14 seed, likely a mid-major champion such as:
  • Idaho (Big Sky Champion): A high-tempo team that relies on three-point shooting.
  • High Point (Big South Champion): A defensive-minded squad that would struggle with Minnesota's size in the paint.

they would face the winner of the No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup in the second round.

Projected 2nd Round Opponents (6 vs. 11 Winner)
Based on the latest February 20, 2026, bracketology from ESPN’s Charlie Creme and NCAA.com, here are the most likely teams traveling to Minneapolis:
  • Tennessee (6 Seed): The Lady Vols are a frequent projection for the 6-seed line. They are a high-rebounding SEC team that would present a significant physical challenge in the paint for the Gophers.
  • North Carolina (6 Seed): Projected as a 6 seed in some regions, the Tar Heels play a fast-paced ACC style. A Minnesota vs. UNC matchup would be a battle of elite backcourts.
  • Rice (11 Seed): Currently projected by Charlie Creme to face Tennessee in the first round. If they pull the 11-over-6 upset, they would bring a disciplined, defensive-first approach to The Barn.
  • Arizona State or Nebraska (11 Seed): Both are currently on the "Last Four In" bubble. If they win their First Four play-in game and then upset a 6 seed, they could set up an all-Big Ten second round in Minneapolis against the Gophers.
The Road Ahead:
If Minnesota wins their first two games at "The Barn," they would head to Sacramento for the Sweet 16, where a potential rematch with #2 seed Michigan or a matchup with a #2 seed like LSU awaits.

***** OR *****

Narrow Loss to Michigan
After successfully vanquishing their "kryptonite" in the Quarterfinals (#6 Maryland), Minnesota faces the #2 seed Michigan Wolverines in the Saturday Semifinals.
  • The Game: It is a back-and-forth thriller that goes down to the final possession. Minnesota leads by one with 12 seconds left, but a Michigan layup and a missed Gopher buzzer-beater result in a 72–71 loss.
  • The Impact: While Minnesota proved they can compete with the conference’s elite, they missed the chance to add a "signature" win over a projected #2 seed in the tournament.

NCAA Seeding: The #4 Seed Hosting Scenario
A loss in the semifinals, combined with their 14–4 regular-season record, leaves Minnesota with a resume that is "on the bubble" between a 3 and 4 seed. Because the 3-seed line is often reserved for teams with multiple wins against the top 10, the committee likely slots them as a high 4 seed.

Tournament MetricMinnesota Status
Final NET Ranking#9 – #11
Final Record22–8
Projected NCAA SeedNo. 4
Hosting RightsYes (Top 16 seeds host at home)

What this means for Minnesota:
As a 4 seed, they still achieve the primary goal: Hosting the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena.
  • First Round: They would likely face a #13 seed (e.g., the champion from the MAC or Sun Belt).
  • Second Round: The challenge gets steeper. They would likely face a #5 seed—a powerhouse team like LSU or Louisville—to determine who advances to the Sweet 16.

Mid-American Conference (MAC) Candidates
  • Miami (OH) RedHawks (Projected 26–0)
    • The Matchup: This is the "Duel of the Streaks." Miami plays a disciplined, slow-tempo game that limits possessions.
    • Minnesota’s Advantage: Size and Strength. The Gophers’ Big Ten-tested frontcourt would likely overwhelm the RedHawks in the paint. If Minnesota’s defense travels to the perimeter to stop Miami's 40% three-point shooting, the Gophers win comfortably.
    • The Danger: If Minnesota has a "cold" shooting night, Miami’s efficiency and lack of turnovers could keep this a one-possession game late into the fourth quarter.
  • Kent State Golden Flashes
    • The Matchup: A veteran squad that relies on heavy ball pressure and transition points.
    • Minnesota’s Advantage: Guard Depth. Minnesota’s backcourt is built to handle the "chaos" style of defense Kent State employs. In a half-court set, the Gophers have more ways to score.
    • The Danger: Kent State thrives on "bid-stealing" energy. If they turn the Gophers over 15+ times, the Williams Arena crowd might get nervous.


Sun Belt Conference Candidates
  • James Madison Dukes (Preseason Favorites)
    • The Matchup: A very physical, rebounding-focused team. They play "Big Ten lite" basketball.
    • Minnesota’s Advantage: Elite Shooting. While JMU can bang in the post, they often struggle to close out on elite shooters. Minnesota’s ability to "stretch the floor" with their 4-out offensive sets would pull JMU’s bigs away from the rim.
    • The Danger: Peyton McDaniel. The Sun Belt Preseason Player of the Year is a volume scorer who can go for 30+ points. If she gets hot, she can carry the Dukes to an upset.
  • Troy Trojans (Current Conference Leaders)
    • The Matchup: Track Meet. Troy leads the nation in field goal attempts; they shoot within 7 seconds of every possession.
    • Minnesota’s Advantage: Conditioning and Coaching. The Gophers’ defensive discipline is their hallmark this season. By forcing Troy into "bad" shots and securing the defensive rebound, Minnesota can trigger their own fast break.
    • The Danger: Troy’s "exhaustion" strategy. They play 12 players deep. If Minnesota gets into foul trouble or looks tired in the second half, Troy’s relentless pace can become a nightmare.
Summary: Against any of these teams, Minnesota would be a 10–12 point favorite at home. The real test comes 48 hours later in the Second Round, likely against a 5-seed powerhouse.
 
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I agree...
WinMinGophers! said:
We will start with the assumption Minnesota gets a double bye. Other Big Ten teams finish the regular season as most likely outcomes of games, Michigan State losing down the stretch.

Minnesota enters as the #3 seed following their regular-season-ending wins over Michigan State and Illinois.

Quarterfinals: #3 Minnesota vs. #6 Maryland
  • Result: Minnesota 81, Maryland 79 (OT)
  • The Matchup: The Gophers finally overcome the Terrapins’ pressure. Trailing by 6 with two minutes left, Minnesota forces two turnovers and hits a buzzer-beating jumper to send it to overtime. In the extra period, the Gophers’ defense holds Maryland scoreless for the final 90 seconds. This win is a massive "monkey off the back" and surges Minnesota's NET ranking to #7.

Semifinals: #3 Minnesota vs. #2 Michigan
  • Result: Minnesota 74, Michigan 66
  • The Matchup: Carrying momentum from the Maryland win, Minnesota plays their most complete game of the season. They out-rebound the Wolverines and exploit their bench depth. By defeating the #2 team in the conference, the Gophers have officially played their way onto the 3-seed line in nearly every bracketology projection.

Championship: #3 Minnesota vs. #1 UCLA
  • Result: UCLA 77, Minnesota 64
  • The Matchup: The Bruins remain the one puzzle Minnesota can't solve. UCLA’s transition game is too fast, and they pull away in the fourth quarter. Despite the loss, Minnesota leaves Indianapolis as the tournament runners-up with a 23–7 record.


NCAA Tournament Projection: The Sacramento Regional
With a deep conference run and wins over every top Big Ten team except UCLA, the Selection Committee places Minnesota as the #3 seed in the Sacramento Regional.

The First Round Matchup:
As a 3 seed, Minnesota hosts the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena. Their projected opponent is the #14 seed, likely a mid-major champion such as:
  • Idaho (Big Sky Champion): A high-tempo team that relies on three-point shooting.
  • High Point (Big South Champion): A defensive-minded squad that would struggle with Minnesota's size in the paint.
The Road Ahead:
If Minnesota wins their first two games at "The Barn," they would head to Sacramento for the Sweet 16, where a potential rematch with #2 seed Michigan or a matchup with a #2 seed like LSU awaits.

OR

Narrow Loss to Michigan
After successfully vanquishing their "kryptonite" in the Quarterfinals (#6 Maryland), Minnesota faces the #2 seed Michigan Wolverines in the Saturday Semifinals.
  • The Game: It is a back-and-forth thriller that goes down to the final possession. Minnesota leads by one with 12 seconds left, but a Michigan layup and a missed Gopher buzzer-beater result in a 72–71 loss.
  • The Impact: While Minnesota proved they can compete with the conference’s elite, they missed the chance to add a "signature" win over a projected #2 seed in the tournament.

NCAA Seeding: The #4 Seed Hosting Scenario
A loss in the semifinals, combined with their 14–4 regular-season record, leaves Minnesota with a resume that is "on the bubble" between a 3 and 4 seed. Because the 3-seed line is often reserved for teams with multiple wins against the top 10, the committee likely slots them as a high 4 seed.

Tournament MetricMinnesota Status
Final NET Ranking#9 – #11
Final Record22–8
Projected NCAA SeedNo. 4
Hosting RightsYes (Top 16 seeds host at home)

What this means for Minnesota:
As a 4 seed, they still achieve the primary goal: Hosting the First and Second Rounds at Williams Arena.
  • First Round: They would likely face a #13 seed (e.g., the champion from the MAC or Sun Belt).
  • Second Round: The challenge gets steeper. They would likely face a #5 seed—a powerhouse team like LSU or Louisville—to determine who advances to the Sweet 16.
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I agree... 3 seed in BTT... beating MD... then beating Michigan and losing to UCLA. Winning two games gives us a 4 seed in tournament, otherwise 5 seed.
 

** COACH DAWN PLITZUWEIT'S MINNESOTA GOPHERS SYSTEM **

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What I write clarifies Coach P's system further. It expands on other comments such as these:

Read: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threa...ense-system-explained-too.121014/post-3282405

Read: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threads/big-game-15-gophers-badgers-feb-15th.121016/post-3283698

Read: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threa...-host-ohio-state-feb-18th.121038/post-3284526


CLARIFYING POINTS

1. Coach's P's system is designed to starve other teams of easier points off turnovers.

GOPHERS DEFENSE LEADS THE ENTIRE NCAA IN FEWEST TURNOVERS!

Ohio State defense averaged a whopping 22.79 turnovers per conference game, entering the game against Minnesota. Minnesota completely shut that down.

Another team with better talent may beat Minnesota, but they are still going to be starved of the easier points off turnovers.


2. Coach P's system is designed to limit points off fast transitions by the other team. Gophers play disciplined time-consuming offense. That limits the possessions for the other team and tries to starve them of fast break transition points.

Minnesota has the best defense in the Big Ten. Gophers suppress.scoring.

This one is hard to achieve. It breaks down sometimes.

That will be the battle against Michigan State. Gophers will probably win that. Read analysis here:

Read: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threa...t-michigan-state-feb-22nd.121066/post-3285760


Maryland and Michigan are Kryptonite Dangers

Michigan often plays five guards so it's more difficult to shut down the transition game. Michigan also creates chaos on defense to generate opportunities. Gophers offense needs to stay disciplined against Michican.

Michigan snapshot:

Other B1G conference games 2025-26

Boom to bust. Former power Indiana losing to Purdue at the end of the 3rd. #12 Ohio State at #10 Iowa at 1 PM. Gophers-Badgers at 2 PM. Buy your tickets for the Minnesota-Nebraska game February 12. Nebraska fans will be there. Get your tickets now.
gopherhole.com gopherhole.com

Maryland is famous for having fast, effective guards -- usually tall. It's hard to cut off a fast, tall guard breaking away, hard to force Maryland into their regular half-court offense.

I think Gophers would beat Michigan. I'm not sure about Maryland. Ohio State is not much of a threat.

3. Gophers sometimes become discombobulated on offense and allow runs of transition points. This team sometimes loses it for a stretch and recovers. Gophers are not UConn, well maybe for 2.5-3 quarters of action.

Coach P ALWAYS calls a time out when this happens.

4. Everyone is a transition strike opportunity. Coach wants several players that can bring the ball down court and strike, often from 3. The Coach P system can (and usually) works well with a forward/wing in place of a big. That adds a transition strike player threat.

A slightly taller GG could replace Sophie Hart's role.

Having Hart in a 4-1 system is a modification of Coach's P system that prefers positionless players that can defense, shoot 3s, and bring the ball up for fast break opportunities.

Coach P's system next season may again utilize a big 4-1 system. Gophers would need to replace Sophie Hart.

Or Gophers can go with a forward/guard for that at the 5. Incoming elite recruit Natalie Kussow is 5' 10". Tori Oehrlein is 5' 9". Neither of them can fill that role. Makena Christian is 6' 0". Maybe...

5. The offense is a motion offense. Players make reads on the fly and then act with pre-practiced options such as A B or C, with lots of off ball screening. That creates a sense of motion, to A to B to C, that confuses defenses while getting players open for looks, often 3's.

To summarize:

1. The Gophers starve other teams of points off turnovers. Right there the other team has been cut points they usually can count on.
Turnover reliant teams like Ohio State are nullified.

2. Gophers try to starve break-away transition points, but Gophers sometimes become discombobulated and let runs happen.
Talented transition teams like Maryland and Michigan are the real danger.

3. Gophers do not have a deep bench, having been deprived of Taylor Woodson due to injury. Minnesota is at risk of falling apart in the last 2 minutes due to being gassed.

4. Gophers prefer to be positionless so.everyone is a fast transition strike threat. Defense stifles and Gophers strike off the defense. The current system is.modifed with Sophie Hart because she is so.good and worth the trade off. She creates new problems for opposing offenses and defenses.

2025-26 Defensive Statistics & Rankings
  • Points Allowed per Game (Scoring Defense): 56.5 (Ranked 10th-21st nationally, 1st in the Big Ten).
  • Fewest Turnovers (Offensive Control): 9.8 per game (1st in the nation).
  • Turnover Margin: +9.6 (Extremely high, indicating high defensive pressure leading to opponent turnovers).
  • Steals: 8.6 per game.
  • Defensive Rating: 84.2 (Points allowed per 100 possessions).
  • Scoring Margin: +11.0 (Reflecting strong defensive impact on overall game control)
5. Offense is a motion offense.

6. Mara Braun is back! Having potent shooters can bury an opponent starved of turnover points and some transition points. Gophers earlier this season just didn't have their ace sniper at full operational capabilities.

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Mara Braun -- Last 3 Games Box Score

DateOpponentPointsReboundsAssistsStealsBlocks
Feb 18vs #10 Ohio State189321
Feb 15@ Wisconsin203210
Feb 12vs Nebraska155412
 
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************** PRESS RELEASE **************
***** Amaya Battle Acknowledgement *****
* * To Those in the Know, Gophers Hole * *

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During game two of Four B1G Ones Coming, Amaya Battle achieved an ultimate Gophers milestone:
  • Passed Lindsay Whalen for 2nd All-Time in Assists: On Wednesday, February 18, 2026, during a 74–61 victory over No. 10 Ohio State, Battle surpassed Gophers legend Lindsay Whalen (578 assists) to move into second place on the program's all-time assists list. She finished the game with five assists, bringing her career total to 583.
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Up next is #18 Michigan State -- Led by Minnesota Gophers point guard Amaya Battle:

BIG Game 17: Gophers host Michigan State, Feb 22nd!

Game is set for 5:00PM and will be on FS1! Pack the Barn and send the seniors off with a win! More to come....
gopherhole.com gopherhole.com
 


Barring catastrophe for any of the teams vying for a double BYE in the Big Ten tournament, it seems like it's going to be between the Gophers and OSU for the 4 and 5 seed now. I kind of like the opportunity to beat them again and add to our resume, but not sure we'd be able to do it twice.
 



Now it's up to 22 turnovers by USC against Ohio State.

Can Ohio State actually upset Michigan with their turnover defense?

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I didn't realize Ohio State was this big of a threat.

It ain't gonna happen...
 

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This doesn't change:

Friday, March 6

Minnesota wins their game that day, they host.

Minnesota doesn't win on that day, they go on the road.

It could be Ohio State as the opponent -- Minnesota wins that. Ohio State defense is the killer.of turnover causing.opponenta. It could be Maryland -- advantage Maryland.

This assumes Gophers win at least one regular season game.


Gophers must win Friday, March 6 ito host - that is *IT*
 
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This was an off game for Gophers losing to Michigan State. Couldn't get the offense going other than over 20 points for hot Tori McKinney.

When Gophers play to average or better on offense, they probably win.

When they shot under.400, they lost all conference games. And that's what happened against tall and physical Michigan State.

When Gophers (rarely) gave up 17 or more points on turnovers in conference games, they lost all games but one.


DateOpponentField Goal %Pts Allowed off TurnoversResult
Dec 7vs. #7 Maryland52.1%18 (2 OT)L 99-100 (2OT)
Dec 29at Indiana48.3%10W 71-48
Jan 5at #9 Michigan39.7%14L 60-70
Jan 8vs. Northwestern50.0%7W 79-47
Jan 11vs. #21 USC43.1%12W 63-62
Jan 14vs. #3 UCLA36.5%20L 58-76
Jan 18at Washington35.6%15L 54-67
Jan 21at Oregon41.2%4W 65-60
Jan 25vs. Wisconsin46.2%12W 88-53
Jan 28at Penn State54.1%11W 87-66
Feb 1vs. Purdue49.2%9W 88-55
Feb 5at #10 Iowa51.6%16W 91-85
Feb 8at Rutgers44.4%8W 63-52
Feb 12vs. Nebraska47.5%13W 84-67
Feb 15at Wisconsin48.4%26W 83-60
Feb 18vs. #10 Ohio State45.8%7W 74-61
Feb 22vs. #18 Michigan State33.3%17L 61-75


Looking ahead to tournaments, Gophers are in a strong position -- unless they have a bad shooting night.

HAVE TO BE CONSISTENT
 

GETTING TO HOST THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS OF NCAA TOURNAMENT

After today's loss to Michigan State, their margin for error is nearly zero.

Updated Hosting Outlook (As of Feb 22, 2026)

To host the first two rounds, a team must be a top-16 national seed (No. 4 seed or higher). Before today, the Gophers were on the "hosting bubble," but this loss creates a significant barrier.

  • Michigan State's Surge: By winning in Minneapolis, the Spartans (22-6, 11-6 Big Ten) completed a crucial resume-building week that likely moves them ahead of Minnesota for a potential hosting spot.
  • Ohio State's Resilience: Despite a recent loss to Maryland, the Buckeyes (23-5, 12-5 Big Ten) remain a stronger hosting candidate than Maryland because of their higher overall ranking (No. 10) and stronger NET profile.
  • Maryland's "Spoiler" Role: Maryland (22-6, 10-6 Big Ten) is indeed less likely to host than Ohio State, but their recent five-game win streak—including a 99-66 blowout of Purdue today—makes them a major threat to take "Quad 1" wins away from others in the conference tournament.

Primary Competitors to Watch
These teams are currently in the 12–20 range and are fighting for the final hosting spots (Seeds 13–16):

TeamStatus vs. MinnesotaWhy they are a threat
Michigan StateAheadOwns the head-to-head win as of today.
Ohio StateAheadHigher national ranking (No. 10) and better Quad 1 record.
TCULikely AheadRanked No. 11 and just beat No. 15 Iowa State.
Ole MissVulnerableLost 85-48 to South Carolina today, potentially dropping out of the top 16.
Duke / IowaBubbleBoth are hovering near the 4/5 seed line; Duke lost to Clemson today, which helps Minnesota slightly.


2026 Big Ten Women’s Tournament Bracket (Projected)
The tournament will be held from March 4–8 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

SeedTeamConf. RecordTournament Status
1UCLA16-0Double-Bye
2Michigan13-2Double-Bye
3Iowa12-3Double-Bye
4Minnesota12-4Double-Bye (Current)
5Ohio State12-5Single-Bye
6Michigan State11-6Single-Bye

Potential Quarterfinal Matchups for Minnesota
If the Gophers maintain their No. 4 seed, they would receive a double-bye directly into the Quarterfinals on Friday, March 6.
  • Most Likely Opponent: The winner of the No. 5 vs. No. 12/13 matchup. Currently, this would likely be Ohio State.


LOSING THE DOUBLE BYE

If the Minnesota Golden Gophers win their final game against Illinois and Ohio State wins its remaining two games (against Michigan and Michigan State), the Big Ten Tournament seeds for the top of the bracket would be as follows:

In this specific scenario, Ohio State would secure the final double-bye, and Minnesota would fall to the #5 seed.

SeedTeamBig Ten RecordStatus
1UCLA17-1 or 18-0Double-Bye
2Michigan14-4 or 15-3Double-Bye
3Ohio State14-5Double-Bye
4Iowa13-5 or 14-4Double-Bye
5Minnesota13-5Single-Bye

Why Minnesota Drops to the #5 Seed
  • Ohio State's Record: By winning out, the Buckeyes finish at 14-5 in conference play.
  • Minnesota's Record: By beating Illinois, the Gophers finish at 13-5.
  • The Standings Gap: Even with a win, Minnesota's five conference losses (Iowa, Michigan, UCLA, Maryland, and Michigan State) put them half a game behind a 14-win Ohio State team.
Impact on the Tournament Path
  • No Double-Bye: As the #5 seed, Minnesota would not receive a double-bye. They would have to play their first game on Thursday, March 5, in the second round.
  • The Quarterfinal Matchup: If Minnesota wins their Thursday game, they would advance to face the #4 seed (likely Iowa or Michigan) on Friday, March 6.
  • NCAA Hosting Risk: Dropping to the #5 seed in the conference tournament makes it significantly harder to remain a Top-16 national seed. To host the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, Minnesota would likely need to reach at least the Big Ten semifinals to offset the loss of the double-bye.


Two scenarios break down for hosting chances:

Scenario 1: Win vs. Illinois + Double-Bye + 1 Tournament Win on Friday, March 6, 2026

This is the most realistic path to a hosting spot.
  • The Result: Minnesota finishes the season at 23-7.
  • The Impact: Beating Illinois provides a vital Quad 1 win. Reaching the Big Ten semifinals (by winning your first game after a double-bye) adds another high-quality win, likely against a top-25 opponent.
  • Hosting Likelihood: High. Most bracketologists agree that a 24-7 finish (including the Illinois win and two tournament wins) makes them "undeniable" for a top-16 seed. A 23-7 finish with a semifinal appearance would keep them right on the hosting line (the No. 4/5 seed bubble).
  • Dependency: They would need teams like Ole Miss or Oklahoma (currently at the bottom of the top 16) to lose early in their respective conference tournaments.

Scenario 2: Win vs. Illinois + No Double-Bye + 2 Tournament Wins

This path is more dangerous because it means Minnesota finished 5th or lower in the Big Ten standings.
  • The Result: Minnesota finishes at 24-7.
  • The Impact: While they have one more total win than in Scenario 1, the lack of a "double-bye" implies they struggled against the top tier of the Big Ten (UCLA, Michigan, Ohio State, etc.) during the regular season.
  • Hosting Likelihood: Moderate to High. The committee values "late-season performance" and "NET ranking" (where Minnesota is currently a very strong No. 8). Winning two games in the tournament—even without a double-bye—would likely mean beating a top-4 seed in the quarterfinals, which could be the "signature win" needed to secure a No. 4 seed.

The Main "Road Blocks"
Even with these wins, these teams could still push Minnesota to the road:
  1. Michigan State: Today's head-to-head win gives them a massive advantage in the eyes of the committee. If both teams have similar records, the Spartans will almost certainly be seeded higher.
  2. Ohio State: Despite their recent loss, their No. 10 ranking and strong resume make them much more likely to host than Minnesota unless the Gophers beat them again in the Big Ten Tournament.
  3. National "At-Large" Candidates: Teams like TCU and Vanderbilt are currently ranked ahead of Minnesota in the committee's top 16.


SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Gophers are #5 in B1G Tournament and Lost Double-Bye

In this scenario analysis, we assume Minnesota finishes the regular season with the #5 seed after losing to Michigan State and seeing Ohio State win out. This forces the Gophers into a "single-bye" path, meaning they must win two games to reach the semifinals and strengthen their case to host the NCAA first and second rounds.

Game 1: The Second Round
  • Opponent: #12 Nebraska or #13 Purdue.
  • The Setup: As the #5 seed, Minnesota bypasses the first round and faces the winner of the #12 vs. #13 seed matchup on Thursday, March 5.
  • Projected Outcome: Minnesota Wins. The Gophers have an elite NET ranking (No. 8) and a top-tier defense (allowing only 56.7 PPG). Against a bottom-tier team like Nebraska or Purdue, Minnesota's size and defensive pressure would likely result in a comfortable 15+ point victory, mirroring their dominant wins over similar conference opponents earlier this season.

Game 2: The Quarterfinals
  • Opponent: #4 Iowa (or potentially #4 Ohio State).
  • The Setup: This is a high-stakes rematch on Friday, March 6. Minnesota already has a signature road win over then-No. 10 Iowa this season.
  • Projected Outcome: A "Quad 1" Battle.
    • The Scenario: If they face Iowa, it will be a clash of styles: Minnesota's top-25 defense against the Hawkeyes' high-octane offense.
    • How it ends: In a tournament environment, Minnesota's ability to control the pace of the game is key. If the Gophers can replicate their road performance where they neutralized Iowa's primary scorers, they win a close, defensive battle—likely 68-64.
    • The "Hosting" Impact: Winning this game secures the "Signature Win" needed to offset the loss of the double-bye and likely locks Minnesota into a No. 4 seed for the NCAA Tournament, allowing them to host at Williams Arena.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Gophers secure #4 and double-bye in Big Ten Tournament

In this scenario, where the Minnesota Golden Gophers (21-7, 12-5 Big Ten) secure the #4 seed and win their first tournament game, they position themselves as a lock to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament at Williams Arena.


The Path: Big Ten Tournament
To secure the #4 seed, Minnesota must beat Illinois in their season finale and hope for a stumble from Ohio State. As the #4 seed, they receive a double-bye directly into the Quarterfinals.

  • Quarterfinal Matchup: #5 Ohio State or #5 Michigan State.
    • The Setup: As the #4 seed, Minnesota faces the winner of the #5 seed vs. #12/13 seed. This sets up a "Rubber Match" against either Ohio State (whom they recently beat 74-61) or Michigan State (who just beat them 75-61).
    • Projected Outcome: Minnesota wins a defensive grind. Riding their elite NET ranking (No. 8) and a top-10 defense, the Gophers thrive in the tournament's physical environment. In a high-stakes rematch, Minnesota’s balance—led by Sophie Hart's post presence and Mara Braun's scoring—allows them to secure a 65-60 victory.

The Hosting Impact
By reaching the Big Ten Semifinals through this win, the Gophers solidify their resume for the NCAA Selection Committee.

  • Hosting Status: Confirmed. Winning a Quarterfinal game as a top-4 conference seed typically cements a team as a Top-16 National Seed. This gives Minnesota the right to host the first and second rounds of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, where they would likely be a #4 seed in their region.
  • Next Opponent: In the Semifinals on Saturday, March 7, they would most likely face the #1 seed, No. 2 UCLA, for a chance to vault even higher in the national rankings.
 
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Competitor: Michigan State

If both Michigan State and Minnesota perform well in the Big Ten Tournament, it is highly probable that both teams will host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

The NCAA awards hosting rights to the top 16 overall national seeds (the top four seeds in each of the four regions). Because the Big Ten is currently viewed as one of the strongest conferences in the country, the selection committee has already indicated that as many as six Big Ten teams could earn hosting spots.

Impact of Shared Success
  • Both as Hosts: If both reach the Big Ten semifinals or finals, they would likely both secure a No. 3 or No. 4 national seed. In this scenario, they would not compete for a single spot; instead, they would both be rewarded with home-court advantage at the Breslin Center (MSU) and Williams Arena (Minnesota).
  • Improved Seeding: A deep run by both could push one or both teams up to a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. This provides an even greater advantage, as higher seeds are generally matched against lower-ranked opponents (seeds 14–16) in the first round.
  • The "Head-to-Head" Factor: While Michigan State’s 75-61 win over Minnesota on February 22 gives them a slight edge in the "seed list" order, Minnesota’s superior NET ranking (No. 8) acts as a massive buffer. Even with the loss, Minnesota remains firmly in the conversation to host if they avoid an early exit in Indianapolis.

Competitor: Ohio State

To outperform Ohio State and secure an NCAA Tournament hosting seed (Top 16 overall), Minnesota must perform deeper into the Big Ten Tournament than the Buckeyes.

If Minnesota beats Ohio State again in the conference tournament, they will almost certainly secure the hosting rights for Williams Arena.

Minnesota is also fighting to stay ahead of national "bubble" teams like Ole Miss and Oklahoma.

Why Minnesota Must Outperform the Field
  • The Committee Gap: In the February 14 reveal, the committee ranked five other Big Ten teams in the top 16, but left Minnesota out entirely, despite their No. 8 NET ranking. This suggests the committee currently values Ohio State’s "Quad 1" wins and schedule strength more than Minnesota’s efficiency metrics.
  • The Michigan State Problem: By losing to Michigan State on February 22, the Gophers allowed the Spartans to jump them in the "hosting hierarchy". Minnesota now likely needs to finish at least one round further than Michigan State or Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament to reclaim a hosting spot.
  • National Pressure: Outside of the Big Ten, teams like Ole Miss (No. 15) and Oklahoma (No. 16) are the "gatekeepers". Minnesota's goal is to perform well enough in Indianapolis to "bump" one of those teams out of the Top 16.

1. Leverage the Head-to-Head and NET Advantage
Minnesota's primary advantage in the "hosting race" is its No. 8 NET ranking, which is higher than Ohio State's No. 10.

  • Signature Win: Minnesota holds a direct head-to-head victory over the Buckeyes, a 74-61 win on February 18.
  • Resume Comparison: The NCAA selection committee uses an "observable component" alongside data. By beating a top-10 Ohio State team convincingly, Minnesota proved it can win "Quad 1" games at an elite level.
2. The Big Ten Tournament "Tiebreaker"
The most direct way to pass Ohio State is to finish further in the conference tournament held in Indianapolis (March 4–8).
  • Scenario for Success: If both teams meet in the Quarterfinals, the winner likely secures a hosting spot, while the loser falls to a 5-seed and must travel.
  • Avoid the "Single-Bye": Ohio State currently leads Minnesota in the loss column (5 losses vs. 4 for Minnesota). If Minnesota wins its regular-season finale against Illinois (March 1) and Ohio State loses to Michigan or Michigan State, Minnesota can reclaim the #4 seed and a double-bye.
3. Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Quad 1 Wins
The committee prioritizes Quad 1 wins (wins against top-25 teams at home or top-45 on the road).

Summary of Key Metrics (As of Feb 22, 2026)

Metric MinnesotaOhio StateWinner for Hosting
NET Ranking#8#10Minnesota
Head-to-Head1-00-1Minnesota
Top 16 Reveal RankUnranked#9Ohio State
Remaining Q1 OppsIllinois, B1G TourneyMichigan, MSUEven
 

WinMinGophers! said:
Competitor: Michigan State

If both Michigan State and Minnesota perform well in the Big Ten Tournament, it is highly probable that both teams will host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

The NCAA awards hosting rights to the top 16 overall national seeds (the top four seeds in each of the four regions). Because the Big Ten is currently viewed as one of the strongest conferences in the country, the selection committee has already indicated that as many as six Big Ten teams could earn hosting spots.

Impact of Shared Success
  • Both as Hosts: If both reach the Big Ten semifinals or finals, they would likely both secure a No. 3 or No. 4 national seed. In this scenario, they would not compete for a single spot; instead, they would both be rewarded with home-court advantage at the Breslin Center (MSU) and Williams Arena (Minnesota).
  • Improved Seeding: A deep run by both could push one or both teams up to a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. This provides an even greater advantage, as higher seeds are generally matched against lower-ranked opponents (seeds 14–16) in the first round.
  • The "Head-to-Head" Factor: While Michigan State’s 75-61 win over Minnesota on February 22 gives them a slight edge in the "seed list" order, Minnesota’s superior NET ranking (No. 8) acts as a massive buffer. Even with the loss, Minnesota remains firmly in the conversation to host if they avoid an early exit in Indianapolis.

Competitor: Ohio State

To outperform Ohio State and secure an NCAA Tournament hosting seed (Top 16 overall), Minnesota must perform deeper into the Big Ten Tournament than the Buckeyes.

If Minnesota beats Ohio State again in the conference tournament, they will almost certainly secure the hosting rights for Williams Arena.

Minnesota is also fighting to stay ahead of national "bubble" teams like Ole Miss and Oklahoma.

Why Minnesota Must Outperform the Field
  • The Committee Gap: In the February 14 reveal, the committee ranked five other Big Ten teams in the top 16, but left Minnesota out entirely, despite their No. 8 NET ranking. This suggests the committee currently values Ohio State’s "Quad 1" wins and schedule strength more than Minnesota’s efficiency metrics.
  • The Michigan State Problem: By losing to Michigan State on February 22, the Gophers allowed the Spartans to jump them in the "hosting hierarchy". Minnesota now likely needs to finish at least one round further than Michigan State or Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament to reclaim a hosting spot.
  • National Pressure: Outside of the Big Ten, teams like Ole Miss (No. 15) and Oklahoma (No. 16) are the "gatekeepers". Minnesota's goal is to perform well enough in Indianapolis to "bump" one of those teams out of the Top 16.

1. Leverage the Head-to-Head and NET Advantage
Minnesota's primary advantage in the "hosting race" is its No. 8 NET ranking, which is higher than Ohio State's No. 10.

  • Signature Win: Minnesota holds a direct head-to-head victory over the Buckeyes, a 74-61 win on February 18.
  • Resume Comparison: The NCAA selection committee uses an "observable component" alongside data. By beating a top-10 Ohio State team convincingly, Minnesota proved it can win "Quad 1" games at an elite level.
2. The Big Ten Tournament "Tiebreaker"
The most direct way to pass Ohio State is to finish further in the conference tournament held in Indianapolis (March 4–8).
  • Scenario for Success: If both teams meet in the Quarterfinals, the winner likely secures a hosting spot, while the loser falls to a 5-seed and must travel.
  • Avoid the "Single-Bye": Ohio State currently leads Minnesota in the loss column (5 losses vs. 4 for Minnesota). If Minnesota wins its regular-season finale against Illinois (March 1) and Ohio State loses to Michigan or Michigan State, Minnesota can reclaim the #4 seed and a double-bye.
3. Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Quad 1 Wins
The committee prioritizes Quad 1 wins (wins against top-25 teams at home or top-45 on the road).

Summary of Key Metrics (As of Feb 22, 2026)

Metric MinnesotaOhio StateWinner for Hosting
NET Ranking#8#10Minnesota
Head-to-Head1-00-1Minnesota
Top 16 Reveal RankUnranked#9Ohio State
Remaining Q1 OppsIllinois, B1G TourneyMichigan, MSUEven
Click to expand...
Does every post have to be so long? Can we just get the shortened version? Lots of valuable information but I just need cliff notes lol:)
 

In the Michigan State game thread, I moved the one about shooting percent by game and turnover points allowed per game to here, cutting it there.

I pasted it here instead, the one about shooting percentages per game and points off turnovers allowed.

Doing a scenario analysis of getting to host is what I am.dying to know. I really want to see the NCAA tournament here.

That is a long read.

I bring a lot.of content here. It is hard to not be who I am.

Maybe I.use this thread as my long analysis thread and stay.out.of the game threads for sports talk. And stay out of the other conference games thread. Those for sports talk.
 

Gophers are locked into a top 7 seed in the B1G tournament. Unlikely to fall to seven but mathematically possible.

One loss by MSU and/or Maryland, would move them up 5 and/or 6
If MN wins at Illinois, they are #5 and #4 with another loss by tOSU.

MN at Illinois
MSU hosts tOSU
Maryland hosts Northwestern and at Michigan
tOSU hosts Michigan and at MSU
Michigan at tOSU and hosts Maryland
Iowa hosts Illinois and at Wisconsin
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Gophers are locked into a top 7 seed in the B1G tournament. Unlikely to fall to seven but mathematically possible.

One loss by MSU and/or Maryland, would move them up 5 and/or 6
If MN wins at Illinois, they are #5 and #4 with another loss by tOSU.

MN at Illinois
MSU hosts tOSU
Maryland hosts Northwestern and at Michigan
tOSU hosts Michigan and at MSU
Michigan at tOSU and hosts Maryland
Iowa hosts Illinois and at Wisconsin
Click to expand...
Ugh! It was right there for the taking! Still we stay out of Wednesday play in games and out of the 8/9 seed. It will make interesting basketball watching this week while the Gophers are on a bye. I hope the Gophers fester enough to come roaring out of the gate next Sunday against Illinois, still so much to play for.
 

Ohio State just fell to Michigan in overtime.

Illinois up next for the Gophers on Big Ten Network: The path to host is ahead.

Minnesota/Illinois

Game is now airing on the Big Ten network. BTN pick up the game. Gametime is 1 pm central.
gopherhole.com gopherhole.com

Michigan looks beatable in March. Madness!
 

This is a longer one. Stick to the other threads if you want brief.

This is meant for clarity using AI, then you add to conversations from what clarity this gets you.

Drawing on this comment about current expert outlook: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threads/week-of-2-23-bracketologies.121113/

Current Expert Projections (as of Feb 26, 2026)

SourceProjected SeedStatus
CBS Sports#4 SeedHost (Fort Worth 1 Subregional)
ESPN (Charlie Creme)#5 SeedNext in line (#17 overall)
Autumn Johnson
(NCAA)		#5 SeedNext in line (#18 overall)
The Athletic (NYT)#4 SeedHost (NET Rank: #8)



Path to Hosting (Top 16 Seed) in NCAA Tournament
To secure a #4 seed or better and host at Williams Arena, Minnesota likely needs to achieve a 24–7 overall record. Here are the key scenarios:

  • The "Strong Case" Scenario: Beat Illinois and win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament to reach the semifinals. Experts suggest a 24–7 finish with a semifinal appearance would likely be enough for a top-16 seed.

Projected Top 4 Seeds (Double-Bye) in Big Ten Tournament

SeedTeamConference RecordStatus
1UCLA17–0Clinched #1 Seed
2Iowa13–3Control own destiny for #2
3Michigan13–3Tied with Iowa; Iowa holds tiebreaker
4Minnesota12–5Projects to #4 with a win


Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeds (5–15)
The following teams occupy the single-bye and first-round slots for the tournament beginning March 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse:

  • #5 Ohio State: Dropped to 12–5 in conference play after losing to Michigan. Because Minnesota holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Buckeyes are currently the top single-bye seed.
  • #6 Maryland: Currently 11–6. The Terrapins have won six straight games to climb into this spot.
  • #7 Michigan State: Also 11–6; they recently beat Minnesota and are neck-and-neck with Maryland.
  • #8 Illinois: Currently 9–7. They host Minnesota on March 1 in a game with major seeding implications.
  • #9 Washington: Sits at 9–8. They hold a slim lead over USC due to recent results.
  • #10 USC: Now 9–8 after back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Penn State.
  • #11 Oregon: Currently 8–9. They remain a lock for the tournament field.
  • #12 Nebraska: Sits at 6–11; they have struggled recently, losing two of their last three.
  • #13 Indiana: Currently 5–12. They are fighting to improve their resume for an at-large NCAA bid.
  • #14 Wisconsin: Also 5–12; likely to play in the Wednesday opening round.
  • #15 Penn State: Currently 4–13 after their upset win over USC kept their postseason hopes alive.
Note: The bottom three teams (Purdue, Northwestern, and Rutgers) are currently projected to miss the 15-team tournament field.


Projected Quarterfinal Opponent - Big Ten Tournament
As the #4 seed, Minnesota's first game would be on Friday, March 6, against the winner of the Thursday "Second Round" game featuring the #5 seed.

  • Most Likely Opponent: #5 Ohio State
    Following their loss to Michigan, Ohio State (12–5) has fallen into a tie with Minnesota for the final double-bye spot. Because Minnesota holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, if the Gophers beat Illinois, Ohio State is pushed to the #5 seed.
  • The Path to the Quarterfinal:
    To reach the Gophers, the #5 seed must first defeat the winner of a Wednesday "First Round" game, which typically features lower seeds like #12 Nebraska or #13 Indiana.
Potential Big Ten Quarterfinal Matchup (Friday, March 6)

SeedTeamScenario
#4 MinnesotaGolden GophersDouble-bye to Quarterfinals
#5 Ohio StateBuckeyesMust win on Thursday to face Minnesota
#12 NebraskaCornhuskersMust win Wednesday AND can take out Ohio State


Likely Big Ten Tournament Semifinal Opponent
UCLA (unless they were upset by opponent in semifinals, likely opponent Illinois or USC)


Big Ten Tournament Tournament Structure for 2026
The 2026 tournament features a 15-team field following conference expansion.
  • Wednesday (First Round): Seeds #10–15 compete.
  • Thursday (Second Round): Seeds #5–9 enter, playing against Wednesday's winners.
  • Friday (Quarterfinals): The top four seeds (UCLA, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota) debut against the Thursday winners.

Who is the Bigger Threat to Minnesota: Maryland or Ohio State?

The Verdict: The Terrapins are currently playing "their best basketball" according to head coach Brenda Frese. While Ohio State is the higher seed (#5), Maryland currently represents the more dangerous statistical threat.

No. 14 Maryland is currently playing its best basketball of the season, entering late February on a six-game winning streak. Their style of play is defined by high-intensity pressure and a dominant interior presence.

Performance Breakdown
  • Transition Game: Maryland thrives when they can push the pace. Head coach Brenda Frese recently emphasized that their transition game is at its best when they apply defensive pressure. In their December 100–99 win over Minnesota, Maryland exploited this, outscoring the Gophers 29–11 in fast-break points.
  • Paint Scoring: The Terrapins are a "paint-first" team. They consistently outmuscle opponents inside, as seen in their February 25 win over Northwestern where they outscored the Wildcats 54–38 in the paint. They averaged 54 paint points in their first matchup with Minnesota as well.
  • Winning Streak: Maryland has "caught fire" in February, rattling off six consecutive victories. This streak includes a major 76–75 comeback win over then-#8 Ohio State.


Gophers in the NCAA Tournament

Potential First-Round Matchups
Based on current bracketology for February 26, 2026, here are the most likely opponents the Gophers would face in Minneapolis:
  • Gonzaga (WCC Champion): CBS Sports currently projects Gonzaga as the #13 seed in the same region where they have Minnesota as a #4 seed.
  • Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN Champion): A perennial "giant killer" often found on the 12 or 13-seed line.
  • Drake or South Dakota State: Both regional mid-major powers are currently projected in the 12–14 seed range and could be moved to Minneapolis for geographic proximity.
  • Other Potential 13-Seeds: Recent projections from ESPN and NCAA.com include teams like Cleveland State (Horizon), North Texas (AAC), or Ball State (MAC).
The Second-Round Scenario
The winner of the #4 vs. #13 game faces the winner of the #5 vs. #12 matchup. If the Gophers advance, potential second-round opponents hosted at Williams Arena could include:
  • #5 Seed: Teams currently on this line include Kentucky, LSU, or Maryland.
  • #12 Seed: High-performing mid-majors like Middle Tennessee or UNLV.

Historical Context: 4 vs. 13
While #4 seeds are heavy favorites, #13 seeds have historically won about 21% of first-round matchups in the women's tournament. Notable recent upsets include Yale over Auburn (2024) and Portland over various higher seeds.


Finally, there are many games left to play. Lots can happen. This is meant to provide some clarity. Could be wrong. Gophers have to sustain a winning streak.


Illinois Up Next

Illinois enters the March 1 regular-season finale as a formidable opponent with a 19–8 overall record (9–7 in the Big Ten). Under fourth-year coach Shauna Green, they have specialized in high-efficiency offense and marquee upsets, including a historic top-10 victory over Maryland earlier this season.

Illinois is a team that lives almost entirely in the half-court. They are widely considered one of the slowest teams in the country, prioritizing a deliberate and physical style of play over fast-break opportunities.

Transition Offense: A Major Weakness
  • Minimal Fast-Break Scoring: Illinois generates only 6.4% of its points on the fast break. This ranks them 361st out of 365 teams nationally, indicating an almost total lack of transition offense.
  • Lack of Disruption: The Illini do not force many turnovers, ranking among the worst in Division I for opponent turnover rate and steals. Because they don't create "chaos" defensively, they rarely get the steals necessary to ignite a fast break.

Half-Court Offense: Their Bread and Butter
  • Deliberate Execution: Illinois plays a "slow" and "disciplined" game, often using a large portion of the shot clock to hunt for high-quality shots.
  • Interior Focus: Their half-court sets revolve around exploiting their positional size, particularly in the paint, where they often dominate scoring margins.
  • Offensive Rebounding: Instead of running back on defense or pushing for quick shots, they often crash the offensive glass to extend possessions in the half-court.

How They Win: Explosive Offense & Paint Dominance
  • High-Octane Scoring: Illinois ranks among the nation's elite offenses, averaging 77.9 points per game (27th in NCAA).
  • Interior Control: They frequently dominate the "points in the paint" battle, outscoring recent opponents like Northwestern 54–38 and Washington 44–22 near the basket.
  • Perimeter Accuracy: When their inside game is established, they become lethal from deep; they recently set a season-high with 12 made three-pointers on 66.7% shooting.
  • Cleaning the Glass: A primary pillar of their success is offensive rebounding. They often convert second-chance opportunities into double-digit scoring advantages (e.g., 26 second-chance points vs. Washington).
Key Matchup: Minnesota's #21 ranked scoring defense will be tested by Illinois’ elite interior scoring.

Why This Matters for Minnesota
In the March 1 regular-season finale, Minnesota's No. 21-ranked scoring defense will face an Illinois team that won't try to outrun them. The game will likely be a physical, half-court battle where the Gophers must focus on post-defense and limiting Illinois' second-chance points rather than defending the fast break.


Why Illinois Lost: Defensive Lapses & Overtime Struggles
  • Defensive Consistency: Their scoring defense is ranked significantly lower than their offense (192nd in NCAA), often allowing opponents to "dice up" their rotations and find open lanes.
  • Late-Game Execution: Illinois has struggled to close out tight contests, losing several games this season in overtime (including back-to-back OT losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin).
  • Physicality & Energy: In late-season losses, the team has appeared to "run out of energy," struggling with defensive answers when key players log heavy minutes or when opponents outmatch their physicality on the boards.
 
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WinMinGophers! said:
This is a longer one. Stick to the other threads if you want brief.

Drawing on this comment about current expert outlook: https://gopherhole.com/boards/threads/week-of-2-23-bracketologies.121113/

Current Expert Projections (as of Feb 26, 2026)

SourceProjected SeedStatus
CBS Sports#4 SeedHost (Fort Worth 1 Subregional)
ESPN (Charlie Creme)#5 SeedNext in line (#17 overall)
Autumn Johnson
(NCAA)		#5 SeedNext in line (#18 overall)
The Athletic (NYT)#4 SeedHost (NET Rank: #8)



Path to Hosting (Top 16 Seed) in NCAA Tournament
To secure a #4 seed or better and host at Williams Arena, Minnesota likely needs to achieve a 24–7 overall record. Here are the key scenarios:

  • The "Strong Case" Scenario: Beat Illinois and win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament to reach the semifinals. Experts suggest a 24–7 finish with a semifinal appearance would likely be enough for a top-16 seed.

Projected Top 4 Seeds (Double-Bye) in Big Ten Tournament

SeedTeamConference RecordStatus
1UCLA17–0Clinched #1 Seed
2Iowa13–3Control own destiny for #2
3Michigan13–3Tied with Iowa; Iowa holds tiebreaker
4Minnesota12–5Projects to #4 with a win


Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeds (5–15)
The following teams occupy the single-bye and first-round slots for the tournament beginning March 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse:

  • #5 Ohio State: Dropped to 12–5 in conference play after losing to Michigan. Because Minnesota holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Buckeyes are currently the top single-bye seed.
  • #6 Maryland: Currently 11–6. The Terrapins have won six straight games to climb into this spot.
  • #7 Michigan State: Also 11–6; they recently beat Minnesota and are neck-and-neck with Maryland.
  • #8 Illinois: Currently 9–7. They host Minnesota on March 1 in a game with major seeding implications.
  • #9 Washington: Sits at 9–8. They hold a slim lead over USC due to recent results.
  • #10 USC: Now 9–8 after back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Penn State.
  • #11 Oregon: Currently 8–9. They remain a lock for the tournament field.
  • #12 Nebraska: Sits at 6–11; they have struggled recently, losing two of their last three.
  • #13 Indiana: Currently 5–12. They are fighting to improve their resume for an at-large NCAA bid.
  • #14 Wisconsin: Also 5–12; likely to play in the Wednesday opening round.
  • #15 Penn State: Currently 4–13 after their upset win over USC kept their postseason hopes alive.
Note: The bottom three teams (Purdue, Northwestern, and Rutgers) are currently projected to miss the 15-team tournament field.


Projected Quarterfinal Opponent - Big Ten Tournament
As the #4 seed, Minnesota's first game would be on Friday, March 6, against the winner of the Thursday "Second Round" game featuring the #5 seed.

  • Most Likely Opponent: #5 Ohio State
    Following their loss to Michigan, Ohio State (12–5) has fallen into a tie with Minnesota for the final double-bye spot. Because Minnesota holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, if the Gophers beat Illinois, Ohio State is pushed to the #5 seed.
  • The Path to the Quarterfinal:
    To reach the Gophers, the #5 seed must first defeat the winner of a Wednesday "First Round" game, which typically features lower seeds like #12 Nebraska or #13 Indiana.
Potential Big Ten Quarterfinal Matchup (Friday, March 6)

SeedTeamScenario
#4 MinnesotaGolden GophersDouble-bye to Quarterfinals
#5 Ohio StateBuckeyesMust win on Thursday to face Minnesota
#12 NebraskaCornhuskersMust win Wednesday AND Thursday to face Minnesota


Likely Big Ten Tournament Semifinal Opponent
UCLA (unless they were upset by opponent in semifinals, likely opponent Illinois or USC)


Big Ten Tournament Tournament Structure for 2026
The 2026 tournament features a 15-team field following conference expansion.
  • Wednesday (First Round): Seeds #10–15 compete.
  • Thursday (Second Round): Seeds #5–9 enter, playing against Wednesday's winners.
  • Friday (Quarterfinals): The top four seeds (UCLA, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota) debut against the Thursday winners.

Who is the Bigger Threat to Minnesota: Maryland or Ohio State?

The Verdict: The Terrapins are currently playing "their best basketball" according to head coach Brenda Frese. While Ohio State is the higher seed (#5), Maryland currently represents the more dangerous statistical threat.

No. 14 Maryland is currently playing its best basketball of the season, entering late February on a six-game winning streak. Their style of play is defined by high-intensity pressure and a dominant interior presence.

Performance Breakdown
  • Transition Game: Maryland thrives when they can push the pace. Head coach Brenda Frese recently emphasized that their transition game is at its best when they apply defensive pressure. In their December 100–99 win over Minnesota, Maryland exploited this, outscoring the Gophers 29–11 in fast-break points.
  • Paint Scoring: The Terrapins are a "paint-first" team. They consistently outmuscle opponents inside, as seen in their February 25 win over Northwestern where they outscored the Wildcats 54–38 in the paint. They averaged 54 paint points in their first matchup with Minnesota as well.
  • Winning Streak: Maryland has "caught fire" in February, rattling off six consecutive victories. This streak includes a major 76–75 comeback win over then-#8 Ohio State.


Gophers in the NCAA Tournament

Potential First-Round Matchups
Based on current bracketology for February 26, 2026, here are the most likely opponents the Gophers would face in Minneapolis:
  • Gonzaga (WCC Champion): CBS Sports currently projects Gonzaga as the #13 seed in the same region where they have Minnesota as a #4 seed.
  • Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN Champion): A perennial "giant killer" often found on the 12 or 13-seed line.
  • Drake or South Dakota State: Both regional mid-major powers are currently projected in the 12–14 seed range and could be moved to Minneapolis for geographic proximity.
  • Other Potential 13-Seeds: Recent projections from ESPN and NCAA.com include teams like Cleveland State (Horizon), North Texas (AAC), or Ball State (MAC).
The Second-Round Scenario
The winner of the #4 vs. #13 game faces the winner of the #5 vs. #12 matchup. If the Gophers advance, potential second-round opponents hosted at Williams Arena could include:
  • #5 Seed: Teams currently on this line include Kentucky, LSU, or Maryland.
  • #12 Seed: High-performing mid-majors like Middle Tennessee or UNLV.

Historical Context: 4 vs. 13
While #4 seeds are heavy favorites, #13 seeds have historically won about 21% of first-round matchups in the women's tournament. Notable recent upsets include Yale over Auburn (2024) and Portland over various higher seeds.


Finally, there are many games left to play. Lots can happen. This is meant to provide some clarity. Could be wrong. Gophers have to sustain a winning streak.


Illinois Up Next

Illinois enters the March 1 regular-season finale as a formidable opponent with a 19–8 overall record (9–7 in the Big Ten). Under fourth-year coach Shauna Green, they have specialized in high-efficiency offense and marquee upsets, including a historic top-10 victory over Maryland earlier this season.

Illinois is a team that lives almost entirely in the half-court. They are widely considered one of the slowest teams in the country, prioritizing a deliberate and physical style of play over fast-break opportunities.

Transition Offense: A Major Weakness
  • Minimal Fast-Break Scoring: Illinois generates only 6.4% of its points on the fast break. This ranks them 361st out of 365 teams nationally, indicating an almost total lack of transition offense.
  • Lack of Disruption: The Illini do not force many turnovers, ranking among the worst in Division I for opponent turnover rate and steals. Because they don't create "chaos" defensively, they rarely get the steals necessary to ignite a fast break.

Half-Court Offense: Their Bread and Butter
  • Deliberate Execution: Illinois plays a "slow" and "disciplined" game, often using a large portion of the shot clock to hunt for high-quality shots.
  • Interior Focus: Their half-court sets revolve around exploiting their positional size, particularly in the paint, where they often dominate scoring margins.
  • Offensive Rebounding: Instead of running back on defense or pushing for quick shots, they often crash the offensive glass to extend possessions in the half-court.

How They Win: Explosive Offense & Paint Dominance
  • High-Octane Scoring: Illinois ranks among the nation's elite offenses, averaging 77.9 points per game (27th in NCAA).
  • Interior Control: They frequently dominate the "points in the paint" battle, outscoring recent opponents like Northwestern 54–38 and Washington 44–22 near the basket.
  • Perimeter Accuracy: When their inside game is established, they become lethal from deep; they recently set a season-high with 12 made three-pointers on 66.7% shooting.
  • Cleaning the Glass: A primary pillar of their success is offensive rebounding. They often convert second-chance opportunities into double-digit scoring advantages (e.g., 26 second-chance points vs. Washington).
Key Matchup: Minnesota's #21 ranked scoring defense will be tested by Illinois’ elite interior scoring.

Why This Matters for Minnesota
In the March 1 regular-season finale, Minnesota's No. 21-ranked scoring defense will face an Illinois team that won't try to outrun them. The game will likely be a physical, half-court battle where the Gophers must focus on post-defense and limiting Illinois' second-chance points rather than defending the fast break.


Why Illinois Lost: Defensive Lapses & Overtime Struggles
  • Defensive Consistency: Their scoring defense is ranked significantly lower than their offense (192nd in NCAA), often allowing opponents to "dice up" their rotations and find open lanes.
  • Late-Game Execution: Illinois has struggled to close out tight contests, losing several games this season in overtime (including back-to-back OT losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin).
  • Physicality & Energy: In late-season losses, the team has appeared to "run out of energy," struggling with defensive answers when key players log heavy minutes or when opponents outmatch their physicality on the boards.
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I don't know if you used ChatGPT or some sort of AI for some of this, but the historical context is incorrect. Yale v Auburn was a men's tourney March Madness upset, and the NCAA website says that 13 seeds are 10-124 all time, a win rate a lot lower than 21%. I appreciate the long informative write-ups, but am always a little irked when AI messes things up that aren't correct.
 

LegalGopher said:
I don't know if you used ChatGPT or some sort of AI for some of this, but the historical context is incorrect. Yale v Auburn was a men's tourney March Madness upset, and the NCAA website says that 13 seeds are 10-124 all time, a win rate a lot lower than 21%. I appreciate the long informative write-ups, but am always a little irked when AI messes things up that aren't correct.
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Thank.you.

I use Google AI, previously explained my conversational method. It takes conversation work to nudge it to where I want and catch errorsI tell it and reask. I do not always catch errors.

Thank you for the correction.

Anyone else, please jump.in too. Add value.

My goal is to write way above my basketball level of understanding. Women basketball has very little to.read out there so this hopefully gives some value added clarity. Take the ball and go from there.
 

ILLINOIS GAME MASSIVE HIGH STAKES TO HOST NCAA TOURNAMENT

Beating Illinois ALSO likely blocks Maryland from facing Minnesota in the quarterfinals of Big Ten Tournament.

Only one scenario where Minneaota has to face Maryland, if Gophers beat Illinois:

Michigan State upsets Ohio State, combined with Maryland winning a difficult road game at Michigan.

Then Maryland would beat out Ohio State for the #5 spot.

Maryland would then face Minnesota in the quarterfinals if Maryland beat their first opponent likely Nebraska or Washington.

Unlikely to happen.

Except for...

Madness.
 

WinMinGophers! said:
ILLINOIS GAME MASSIVE HIGH STAKES TO HOST NCAA TOURNAMENT

Beating Illinois ALSO likely blocks Maryland from facing Minnesota in the quarterfinals of Big Ten Tournament.

Only one scenario where Minneaota has to face Maryland, if Gophers beat Illinois:

Michigan State upsets Ohio State, combined with Maryland winning a difficult road game at Michigan.

Then Maryland would beat out Ohio State for the #5 spot.

Maryland would then face Minnesota in the quarterfinals if Maryland beat their first opponent likely Nebraska or Washington.

Unlikely to happen.

Except for...

Madness.
Click to expand...
I would love for a second chance at Maryland. I am sure the team does too.
 

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