Maybe what they have to do as not enough NIL to get best transfers as well as keep top undergrads. The portal has a lot of mercenaries who wouldn't necessarily care about RTB.
Because so many top teams now rely on the portal for big numbers each year, a helpful mathematical certainty (for next tier teams) occurs: there will be fewer spots on the top teams for top HS players than there once were. The five stars and highest rated four stars will all still find a place on those teams. But many four stars and higher-rated three stars will have to look one tier below the helmet +
nouveau riche schools for a place to land out of HS. {This is actually happening now.} The Gophs are now getting more four stars than they used to (so, of course, are Iowa and some others of our ilk), and that trend should continue. If PJ can smartly farm this opportunity and then apply NIL and revenue sharing efficiently over the years, he should be able to keep many of the best players he develops (e.g., Anthony Smith, Darius Taylor, Drake Lindsay), though he might lose a few with the absolute highest market value (e.g., Koi Perich)--though only after those highest value players have helped the team for a couple of seasons.
A HS development program--one now starting off with higher rated recruits--will form the team's base; PJ will add selectively and efficiently from the transfer portal each year to fill gaps. It is a good strategy, I think, for a school
in the Gophers' financial strata to maximize outcomes. A high likelihood design for a national championship team? Probably not. A high likelihood design for consecutive winning seasons with occasions of being ranked and maybe even a sniff at the CFP? Yes. If a financial backer like Phil Knight shows up, the design can change. Until then, folks can complain about not winning national championships, but I'll happily accept a strategy, consistently applied, that aims to maximize outcomes given the actual and relative state of the team's financial resources.
Some think that PJ's strategy is stupid because the helmet schools will simply steal all our good players. Again, I think the math portrays the improbability of this fear. There are 136 Div I football teams and 129 more in Div II (and many more in Div III and junior colleges). If, say, the top 15 Div I teams are the only "predators" the Gophers must fear, those predators will have more than 25,000 players on lesser schools to pick over each year. Yet, even if the top 15 schools turnover a quarter of their roster annually
solely in transfer portal players (most actually won't get near this number except in a troubled year), that would cap at about 450 the number of players the top 15 predators will gobble up annually through the portal. And most of these 450 players will be "lateral transfers" from other helmet schools, plus "back fill," "depth" and "upside chance" players; only a few, maybe 75?, will be outright steals of top performing players from schools on the Gophers' and lower tiers.
The Gophers, because of the substantial revenue-sharing and NIL they do have, are in the
next financial tier: they, along with 245 other schools, are "prey" to the top 15; they are uneasy roommates with the next 25 or so; and they are a sheer predator as to the remaining, giant flock of prey. It simply cannot be as bad for the Gophers--"we'll just be a farm team"--as the Chicken Little types feel. It is mathematically impossible. There are simply too many other "develppment" schools who are simultaneously prey for the truly few helmet +
nouveau riche schools. The Gophers will keep the vast majority of the top players the team develops, but will occasionally lose a tippy-top player whose obscenely high market value rationally outstrips his deep loyalty to the Gophers. And we'll just spread that guy's earmarked payments to other players we want to keep or grab in the portal.
I think PJ is at his best when adapting to situations like this, where he can methodically consult and plan over time, and adopt strategies that are essentially within his own control. He is trying to find the best way for the Gophs to live smartly and prosper within their budget. He might continue to stub his toe on lightning reaction, game day matters--where he isn't always at his best--but I think he and his coaches are maturing in that aspect too. Maybe a little less obsessive micro-managing, more up-tempo play, and let Drake cook? Go Gophers!
