You’ll never see 50/50 from Fleck (or from many successfully coaches who have to build a team that can win in November in a northern climate). In 2019 we had great “balance” with 60% rushing and 40% passing. In 2021 we seemed very out of balance with 70% rushing and 30% passing. The statistical difference isn’t that big great, but it was very, very noticeable. For instance, we rushed on average 43 times per game in 2019, and 46 times per game in 2021. We attempted 25 passes per game in 2019, and 20 passes per game in 2021. Here’s the key difference: we passed for 3293 yards (253 per game) in 2019, but only 2106 yards (162 per game) in 2021. We passed for 2.1 TDs per game in 2019, but only 0.9 per game in 2021. The lack of results in our passing game (esp. red zone passing) was a bigger problem than the ratio of run to pass. We ran fewer plays per game in 2021 (5-6 less per game), because we ran the play clock down to zero seemingly in every situation, not just strategically.
All this means to me what is obvious to many. We lacked confidence in our passing game in 2021 as a balanced component of our offense. And we had one of the biggest and most experienced OL to ever set foot on a college field (older and 30 pounds heavier on average than the Vikings’ OL). And we had a seemingly inexhaustible stable of quality RBs. And we had an historically good defense. Thus the 70/30 ratio, eat the clock strategy. It fit.
I bet that PJ and Ciarocca return to a balanced offense in 2022: a 60/40 ratio. We will continue to run the ball 44 or 45 times per game, but we will pass the ball more often. We will gain the extra plays per game simply by wasting the play clock strategically rather than habitually. And it will work great if the coaches regain confidence in our passing game. Our obvious lack of confidence in 2021 has many components: Tanner seemed rusty and often not trusted, perhaps because he is a better RPO/play action passer than a drop back/check down QB; the receiving corp was banged up and doesn’t have inexhaustible depth; the play calling and route trees seemed, at times (not always), to be somewhat disconnected from what the defense seemed to be giving.
If Ciarocca can restore confidence in the passing game (by playing to Tanner’s strengths), the run/pass ratio will change (to 60/40) but the results of the passing game, in terms or total yards and TDs, could improve markedly.
2022, even with all the new personnel, should prove very interesting.