FiveThirtyEight: Where should the Big Ten expand next?

WindyCityGopher

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Quite a bit of analysis to look at here (which is very football-driven), but an interesting exercise to break down the contenders from the pretenders for future expansion. I particularly love that when broaching the idea of relegation that Silver has Minnesota in the Upper Division of a proposed 24-team conference.

From Silver: Having given up on the Big Ten being a Midwestern conference, I’m actually on board with its newest additions: UCLA and USC. At least they’re schools with great football traditions — and historical connections to the Big Ten through frequent Rose Bowl matchups.

So screw it. At this point, it’s a big game of “Risk” with two superconferences, and the Big Ten is playing for keeps against the Southeastern Conference. Which schools should the Big Ten add next?


 


RockChalk

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Oregon would be awesome. Wonderful BB and FB teams for sure.
 





PMWinSTP

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Nike Money and a national brand. Media market size are less important with streaming rising and cable continuing to die
Eyeballs are eyeballs regardless of how they are watching. I'll take Stanford, Washington and Cal before the Ducks.
 

Dave H

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I get that, for sure. I'm just being selfish from a team point of view. They would compete in both FB & BB immediately in the Big 10

I would bet they wouldn't. The jump in competition would almost certainly hold them down. The PAC12 is not The Big Ten and USC will find that out as well. It isn't like Oregon is super dominate in a mediocre PAC anyways. (in football I couldn't even tell you what PAC12 basketball is like these days)

When Phil Knight dies Oregon goes by way of the Dodo anyways.

There are way better choices than Oregon.
 




PMWinSTP

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They have most of the state, so 4 million, way more than IA or Nebraska.

Adding OR and Washington is a no brainer.
I will be surprised if Oregon is among the four to get B1G to 20.
 


PMWinSTP

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I would bet they wouldn't. The jump in competition would almost certainly hold them down. The PAC12 is not The Big Ten and USC will find that out as well. It isn't like Oregon is super dominate in a mediocre PAC anyways. (in football I couldn't even tell you what PAC12 basketball is like these days)

When Phil Knight dies Oregon goes by way of the Dodo anyways.

There are way better choices than Oregon.
Pac12 had three teams in the Elite Eight in 2021.
 

Lion King

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Quite a bit of analysis to look at here (which is very football-driven), but an interesting exercise to break down the contenders from the pretenders for future expansion. I particularly love that when broaching the idea of relegation that Silver has Minnesota in the Upper Division of a proposed 24-team conference.

From Silver: Having given up on the Big Ten being a Midwestern conference, I’m actually on board with its newest additions: UCLA and USC. At least they’re schools with great football traditions — and historical connections to the Big Ten through frequent Rose Bowl matchups.

So screw it. At this point, it’s a big game of “Risk” with two superconferences, and the Big Ten is playing for keeps against the Southeastern Conference. Which schools should the Big Ten add next?



Why not go for it all and get teams from Canada, England , China & Brazil, no matter how bad , when it's all about the money, it makes allot of sense.
 



Bfan

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All things considered -- first football but also basketball and other sports -- I've heard these teams mentioned:

17. Oregon
18. Stanford
19. Washington
20. Notre Dame
21. Cal
22. Duke
23. North Carolina
24. Toss up: Probably Pitt. A team in Florida would expand the national presence.

Coast to coast, the big stage
 

goldenboy

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I’ve also heard Arizona mentioned, at least a couple of times, mostly because of the media market.
 

jovs

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All things considered -- first football but also basketball and other sports -- I've heard these teams mentioned:

17. Oregon
18. Stanford
19. Washington
20. Notre Dame
21. Cal
22. Duke
23. North Carolina
24. Toss up: Probably Pitt. A team in Florida would expand the national presence.

Coast to coast, the big stage
Nice list, what about Georgia Tech
 

eker0016

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They have most of the state, so 4 million, way more than IA or Nebraska.

Adding OR and Washington is a no brainer.
Also the West Coast is growing while the Rust Belt is static. Here are the populations (millions).

YearOregonWashingtonOhioMichigan
20003.95.911.49.9
20224.3 (+10%)7.8 (+32%)11.7 (+2.5%)10 (+1%)

These conference alignment moves are made with a decades long future view. Lock down the flagship universities for each of these states.

Completely unrelated: I live in Oregon and would love to watch B10 football play here.
 

TruthSeeker

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Also the West Coast is growing while the Rust Belt is static. Here are the populations (millions).

YearOregonWashingtonOhioMichigan
20003.95.911.49.9
20224.3 (+10%)7.8 (+32%)11.7 (+2.5%)10 (+1%)

These conference alignment moves are made with a decades long future view. Lock down the flagship universities for each of these states.

Completely unrelated: I live in Oregon and would love to watch B10 football play here.
Where is the projected growth for the next 20 years? That's the better question.

Climate change via wildfires and drought are going to alter migration patterns. The West will burn and dry up. The Great Salt Lake is almost gone. Utah is in huge trouble right now. The Colorado River can't support existing populations.

Think along those terms. That's how you find the best long-term schools.
 


eker0016

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Where is the projected growth for the next 20 years? That's the better question.

Climate change via wildfires and drought are going to alter migration patterns. The West will burn and dry up. The Great Salt Lake is almost gone. Utah is in huge trouble right now. The Colorado River can't support existing populations.

Think along those terms. That's how you find the best long-term schools.
We shall see. My area (Rogue Valley) has had bad fires the last couple years and people are still moving here. I think the wetter areas like Portland/Seattle and other coastal areas will do just fine.

I think a greater threat to the population growth in the PNW is the cost of living/family size. Most of the people I know here have 0-2 kids, while friends from the midwest all seem to have 2-4 kids.
 

jovs

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Where is the projected growth for the next 20 years? That's the better question.

Climate change via wildfires and drought are going to alter migration patterns. The West will burn and dry up. The Great Salt Lake is almost gone. Utah is in huge trouble right now. The Colorado River can't support existing populations.

Think along those terms. That's how you find the best long-term schools.
Arizona will be the worst, desalination and piping of water is not going to be cheap, it is going to be very expensive to live there, desalinating and piping water to much of California won't be as bad.
 

mngolf

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All things considered -- first football but also basketball and other sports -- I've heard these teams mentioned:

17. Oregon
18. Stanford
19. Washington
20. Notre Dame
21. Cal
22. Duke
23. North Carolina
24. Toss up: Probably Pitt. A team in Florida would expand the national presence.

Coast to coast, the big stage
Pitt not happening. And the Oregon talks right now with B1G are probably along the lines of "you'd need to take a smaller piece of the B1G pie to join." Question would be if Phil is willing to supplement them in perpetuity.
 


Unregistered User

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I disregarded the entire thing when they used USNWR for academics. Surprised 538 would use such a flawed metric.
 


Some guy

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Eyeballs are eyeballs regardless of how they are watching. I'll take Stanford, Washington and Cal before the Ducks.
How can you say eyeballs are eyeballs and then say you’d take Stanford and cal over oregon?

Oregon gets much better tv numbers?
 

jovs

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How can you say eyeballs are eyeballs and then say you’d take Stanford and cal over oregon?

Oregon gets much better tv numbers?
I would, long term Washington, Cal, and Stanford will be the better programs, Nike money isn't guaranteed, especially when Knight is gone.
 

Some guy

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I would, long term Washington, Cal, and Stanford will be the better programs, Nike money isn't guaranteed, especially when Knight is gone.
Nike money could come and go and nobody at Cal would care about sports

In the most recent board of regents meeting for the UC system they openly discussed dropping to D3
 






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