First time since 2005

[Schnauzer]

This is the first Gopher/Badger matchup since 2005 where I feel the Gophers actually have the better team. And of course, one only needs to look at 2005 to acknowledge the better team doesn't always win. Not to mention the Gophers are actually seen by Vegas as underdogs at home on Saturday. When is the last time the Gophers were favored either on the road or at home against Wisconsin?

I do think that the Gophers have been regularly getting disrespectful spreads this season as the betting public tends to take their time letting go of old bias thinking.

 

[GhostofBronko]

I do think that the Gophers have been regularly getting disrespectful spreads this season as the betting public tends to take their time letting go of old bias thinking.

Are the computers having trouble letting go too? We're ranked lower by Sagarin, FPI, SP+, etc.

 

[WinLoseOrTy]

Are the computers having trouble letting go too? We're ranked lower by Sagarin, FPI, SP+, etc.

Sagarin has Gophers at 20th, behind two 4 loss teams (Texas A&M and Iowa State) and just ahead of 6 loss TCU (28th).

FPI has Gophers at 17th, once again behind 4 loss Texas A&M. 5 loss Washington is at 20th.

SP+ has Gophers at 14th, ahead of all 4+ loss teams and only 3 loss Auburn ahead. Clearly it is the best model of the 3.

 

[Panthadad2]

The Gophers have beaten the spread in 7 of 8 conference games (missed Iowa by 1 pt). So yeah, the "prediction" services have been off. This all goes back to the nonconference games where the Gophs were very vanilla and didn't outperform. Those noncom results are still holding down the statistical models used for predictions.

 

[tmvander]

My guess is that a lot of those sites use too much data and run formulas based off of how efficient you were against certain teams etc. Barely winning our first 4 games probably hurts these dumb formulas.

 

[northeast_mpls_guy]

The Gophers have beaten the spread in 7 of 8 conference games (missed Iowa by 1 pt). So yeah, the "prediction" services have been off. This all goes back to the nonconference games where the Gophs were very vanilla and didn't outperform. Those noncom results are still holding down the statistical models used for predictions.

This. The models don't seem to account well for teams that play like crap in the early games and then figure it out as the season goes on. Vegas likes to set their lines on the models which normally makes sense as most teams don't seem to deviate all that much from their average. Models that have built in a recency bias have typically performed worse than those that don't. This Gophers team is the exception, not the norm.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

What about 2014?