Final Field of 68 Projection (wee hours of the morning March 17)

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Bad Gopher said:
We could finally settle one of the debates in these parts.
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Ha! There will be a lot of debates settled in the next few weeks. Are we in? That should be easy. Can we recover and make a run? Will Tubby survive? If not, who's on the short list? Where does Shilling go? Any player departures?
 

bga1 said:
Ha! There will be a lot of debates settled in the next few weeks. Are we in? That should be easy. Can we recover and make a run? Will Tubby survive? If not, who's on the short list? Where does Shilling go? Any player departures?
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I'm not one of these reality TV drama junkies, but I'm kinda digging the drama you lay out. This is going to be rich and juicy.
 

howeda7 said:
Great work, SS. I agree with you, I think Kentucky is getting in. A) They're the defending champs. B) They're Kentucky. The idea of LaSalle getting in over them is hard to see.
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So much for that. Close SS.
 




With all due respect to those who predict the 68 teams it's really only a matter of predicting the last couple of spots. The rest of the field is given.

31 at-large bid plus about 30-32 other teams are locks. That means all you have to do is predict the last 4-5 teams. Again, more power to you but the odds are not exactly stacked against you.
 

B1GSportsGuy said:
With all due respect to those who predict the 68 teams it's really only a matter of predicting the last couple of spots. The rest of the field is given.

31 at-large bid plus about 30-32 other teams are locks. That means all you have to do is predict the last 4-5 teams. Again, more power to you but the odds are not exactly stacked against you.
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In some years it's that way, in other years where there may be a lot of upsets in conference tourneys, it can be a lot tougher.
 

B1GSportsGuy said:
With all due respect to those who predict the 68 teams it's really only a matter of predicting the last couple of spots. The rest of the field is given.

31 at-large bid plus about 30-32 other teams are locks. That means all you have to do is predict the last 4-5 teams. Again, more power to you but the odds are not exactly stacked against you.
Click to expand...

Also, they try to predict the seed each team will get. That's nearly impossible
 

mcal24 said:
Also, they try to predict the seed each team will get. That's nearly impossible
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That's where most of the contest is. Needing to get the seeds correct.
I've entered my site, www.37score.com against the experts on www.bracketmatrix.com this year where you get added points based on the seeding.

They haven't tabulated the results yet, but I did beat Lunardi and Palm this year from what I can tell so far.
 





Final Tally: Missed 1 (Had Kentucky instead of LaSalle). ...

. ... but am very happy for LaSalle head coach Dr. John Giannini. ... very deserving of his first NCAA Tournament appearance at the D-I level.

Below are updated numbers, as well as my track record vs. Lunardi and Palm over the last 4 years. The three of us are tied over the last 4 years (140 of 145), while Lunardi and I are one ahead of Palm (107-of-111 to 106-of-111) since the field expanded to 68 teams. A tip of the cap to Joey Brackets, who got 'em all right this year.

Thanks to all those that followed along.

Beat UCLA!

Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2012-13)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
Totals: 714/757 (94.3%)
Last 5 Years: 174/179 (97.2%)

SS At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; LaSalle instead)
Last 4 Years: 140/145 (96.6%)
Since Field of 68: 107/111 (96.4%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com) At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 37/37 – perfect --
Last 4 Years: 140/145 (96.6%)
Since Field of 68: 107/111 (96.4%)

Jerry Palm (CBSSports.com) At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee instead)
Last 4 Years: 140/145 (96.6%)
Since Field of 68: 106/111 (95.5%)

Five Worst At-Larges by RPI (since expansion to 68)
67. USC – 2010-11 (First Four)
64. Marquette -- 2010-11 (#11 seed)
57. Clemson -- 2010-11 (First Four)
57. West Virginia -- 2011-12 (#10 seed)
55. Florida State -- 2010-11 (#10 seed)

RPIs of First Four At-Larges (Best to Worst)
28. Middle Tennessee (2012-13)
29. Saint Mary’s (2012-13)
31. UAB (2010-11)
37. Cal (2011-12)
40. Iona (2011-12)
41. Boise State (2012-13)
45. BYU (2011-12)
46. LaSalle (2012-13)
49. VCU (2010-11)
52. USF (2011-12)
57. Clemson (2010-11)
67. USC (2010-11)
 

B1GSportsGuy said:
With all due respect to those who predict the 68 teams it's really only a matter of predicting the last couple of spots. The rest of the field is given.

31 at-large bid plus about 30-32 other teams are locks. That means all you have to do is predict the last 4-5 teams. Again, more power to you but the odds are not exactly stacked against you.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the encouragement, and the positivity!
 




SelectionSunday said:
. ... but am very happy for LaSalle head coach Dr. John Giannini. ... very deserving of his first NCAA Tournament appearance at the D-I level.

Below are updated numbers, as well as my track record vs. Lunardi and Palm over the last 4 years. The three of us are tied over the last 4 years (140 of 145), while Lunardi and I are one ahead of Palm (107-of-111 to 106-of-111) since the field expanded to 68 teams. A tip of the cap to Joey Brackets, who got 'em all right this year.

Thanks to all those that followed along.

Beat UCLA!

Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2012-13)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
Totals: 714/757 (94.3%)
Last 5 Years: 174/179 (97.2%)

SS At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; LaSalle instead)
Last 4 Years: 140/145 (96.6%)
Since Field of 68: 107/111 (96.4%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com) At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 37/37 – perfect --
Last 4 Years: 140/145 (96.6%)
Since Field of 68: 107/111 (96.4%)

Jerry Palm (CBSSports.com) At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee instead)
Last 4 Years: 140/145 (96.6%)
Since Field of 68: 106/111 (95.5%)

Five Worst At-Larges by RPI (since expansion to 68)
67. USC – 2010-11 (First Four)
64. Marquette -- 2010-11 (#11 seed)
57. Clemson -- 2010-11 (First Four)
57. West Virginia -- 2011-12 (#10 seed)
55. Florida State -- 2010-11 (#10 seed)

RPIs of First Four At-Larges (Best to Worst)
28. Middle Tennessee (2012-13)
29. Saint Mary’s (2012-13)
31. UAB (2010-11)
37. Cal (2011-12)
40. Iona (2011-12)
41. Boise State (2012-13)
45. BYU (2011-12)
46. LaSalle (2012-13)
49. VCU (2010-11)
52. USF (2011-12)
57. Clemson (2010-11)
67. USC (2010-11)
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You should have entered in bracketmatrix.com this year if you hadn't.
He does a total score with points awarded for seeding correctly.
 

Thanks FTF, and well done! With your switch from Tennessee to Middle Tennessee, you were perfect, correct? I had a hunch Kentucky could come back and bite me.

I don't do the seeding stuff, only the at-large projection. The seeding is heavy stuff!
 

SelectionSunday said:
Thanks FTF, and well done! With your switch from Tennessee to Middle Tennessee, you were perfect, correct? I had a hunch Kentucky could come back and bite me.

I don't do the seeding stuff, only the at-large projection. The seeding is heavy stuff!
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No kidding. All of those rules are nuts. I just learned a new one: You can't play a team in the first round that you already played this year. I think Palm was pissed because they have UNLV and California playing in the first round after playing earlier this year. That's a stupid rule.
 

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