Final Field of 68 Projection (wee hours of the morning March 17)

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SelectionSunday

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My final look at the projected Field of 68 for the 2013 NCAA Tournament.

FIELD OF 68
America East (1): Albany (131)

ACC (4): Duke (1), Miami (4), North Carolina (16), NC State (33)

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast (93)

Atlantic 10 (4): Saint Louis (21), Butler (23), VCU (25), Temple (42)

Big East (8): Louisville (3), Georgetown (9), Syracuse (12), Marquette (13), Notre Dame (36), Pitt (43), Cincinnati (48), Villanova (52)

Big Sky (1): Montana (83)

Big South (1): Liberty (287)

B1G (7): Michigan State (8), Indiana (10), Ohio State (11), Michigan (18), Wisconsin (28), GOPHERS (34), Illinois (38)

Big 12 (5): Kansas (7), Kansas State (17), Oklahoma State (26), Oklahoma (39), Iowa State (44)

Big West (1): Pacific (106)

Colonial (1): James Madison (182)

Conference USA (1): Memphis (14)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (58)

Ivy (1): Harvard (91)

MAAC (1): Iona (97)

MAC (1): Akron (45)

MEAC (1): North Carolina A&T (213)

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton (27), Wichita State (37)

Mountain West (5): New Mexico (2), Colorado State (20), UNLV (22), San Diego State (32), Boise State (41)

Northeast (1): LIU (178)

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (19)

Pac 12 (5): Arizona (15), UCLA (24), Colorado (40), Oregon (49), Cal (53)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (51)

SEC (4): Florida (5), Missouri (35), Ole Miss (50), Kentucky (56)

Southern (1): Davidson (61)

Southland (1): Northwestern State (95)

SWAC (1): Southern U (179)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (62)

Sun Belt (2): Middle Tennessee State (29), Western Kentucky (151)

West Coast (2): Gonzaga (6), Saint Mary's (30)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (57)

Last 4 In: Middle Tennessee State (29), Saint Mary's (30), **Ole Miss (50), Kentucky (56)
First 4 Out: LaSalle (46), UMass (58), Tennessee (59), Virginia (74)

**(edit Sunday morning -- if Ole Miss earns the SEC's automatic bid Sunday with a win over Florida, Villanova then joins my "last 4 in")

Others Considered: Alabama (60), Baylor (67), Maryland (69), Iowa (78)

BCS Teams in the Field: 33
Non-BCS Teams in the Field: 35

Notes
(1) I had a hard time taking either/both Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State, but that's how weak the bubble is. I know, especially, that I'm taking a huge gamble with MTSU. I don't ever remember taking a team with exactly one (that's right, 1) RPI top-100 win, but that's exactly what I'm doing.

MTSU was the only possible "bid stealer" among the smaller conferences, so I have a hunch the Selection Committee will find a way to slide them into the field. The Blue Raiders didn't beat anyone of significance other than Ole Miss (last 4 in), but I think they'll be rewarded for their dominance (19-1) of the Sun Belt (albeit a weak conference), having the #9 non conference SOS in the country, and a hard-to-ignore #29 RPI. If it makes the field, MTSU absolutely will be the committee's most controversial selection, even moreso than the defending national champs (Kentucky).

(2) The one team I left out that I really wanted to include was Tennessee. The Vols (#59) finished strong by going 8-2 in their last 10, had 9 RPI top-100 wins (best among my final group of bubble teams), and a solid #44 non conference SOS, but they were done in by season sweeps courtesy of Alabama and Ole Miss. The loss to fellow bubbler Alabama in the SEC Tournament, perhaps, was the Vols' fatal blow.

(3) If Southern Miss gets into the field, I'm going to hurl. The Golden Eagles (#31) are this season's "RPI tiger". ... sexy RPI, but a lotta' nothin' to brag about, not even a regular-season championship.

(4) Just slinging some crap at the wall, I'll project the Gophers as a #10 seed with a Round of 64 matchup vs. Mike Brey's Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Destination? Hopefully KCMO (Kansas City).

(5) My preseason Final Four -- Indiana (national champ), Louisville, Michigan State, and Missouri -- all will make the field. Hoping they all get placed in different regions.

Let 'er rip, folks. Always interested in hearing reasonable discussion about who I should have left out and who I should have included.

SS PROJECTING THE AT-LARGES/STATS/MISCELLANEOUS
SS Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2011-12)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
Totals: 678/720 (94.2%)
Last 5 Years: 171/176 (97.2%)
Last 10 Years: 330/346 (95.4%)

SS At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
Last 3 Years: 104/108 (96.3%)
Since Field of 68: 71/74 (95.9%)

Jerry Palm (CBS) At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 34/34 -- perfect --
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State instead)
Last 3 Years: 104/108 (96.3%)
Since Field of 68: 70/74 (94.6%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN) At-Large Projections since 2009-10
2009-10: 33/34 (Illinois; Florida in instead)
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
Last 3 Years: 103/108 (95.4%)
Since Field of 68: 70/74 (94.6%)

Five Worst At-Larges by RPI (circa expansion to 68)
67. USC – 2010-11 (First Four)
64. Marquette -- 2010-11 (#11 seed)
57. Clemson -- 2010-11 (First Four)
57. West Virginia -- 2011-12 (#10 seed)
55. Florida State -- 2010-11 (#10 seed)

RPIs of First Four At-Larges (Best to Worst)
31. UAB (2010-11)
37. Cal (2011-12)
40. Iona (2011-12)
45. BYU (2011-12)
49. VCU (2010-11)
52. USF (2011-12)
57. Clemson (2010-11)
67. USC (2010-11)
 

Thanks SS. What you do is amazing and greatly appreciated here.

Why Kentucky over, say, La Salle? Was the late Florida win just too much to ignore?
 

Thanks a lot Selection Sunday. Regardless of how the season has transpired, I've been waiting for your list and seeing the Gophers name in there. I appreciate your contributions! Now.......let's go Gophers, make a run.
 

I love your work and your percentage of accuracy, SS. Thanks very much.
 



Great stuff as always, you are as good as any out there!!

Go Gophers!!
 


Many thanks for the analysis, SS!

Kentucky's an interesting case. Last night's ESPN projection had them BEYOND the last four OUT. Will be interesting to see where they fall.
 

As long as Iowa didn't make it....I'm happy.
 



fryguy22 said:
Thanks SS. What you do is amazing and greatly appreciated here.

Why Kentucky over, say, La Salle? Was the late Florida win just too much to ignore?
Click to expand...

If Kentucky gets in, yes, the Wildcats' win over the Gators (without Nerlens Noel) will be a big reason. At least they will have proven they can beat a high-level tournament team without Noel. There's nothing special about UK's resume, but it's really not any different than those of the other bubble teams. It might be enough, it might not. When push came to shove, the bad loss to Vandy in the SEC quarters didn't scare me off completely (it was only their second bad loss), and the Wildcats' 3-5 record vs. the top 50 was solid among the other bubblers.

Kentucky over LaSalle (among others) was a tough call. LaSalle was the only one of my final bubble teams with less than two bad losses. However, the one thing I really didn't like about the Explorers' resume was their 1-7 road/neutral record vs. the top 100. In addition, I couldn't get past the fact that other than back-to-back wins over Butler and VCU in late January, all I saw was a team that beat the teams it was expected to beat and lost to the teams it was supposed to lose to.

Please allow me a side note. I really hope I'm wrong about LaSalle. When Explorers head coach Dr. John Giannini was the head man at the University of Maine, my older brother became a friend of Giannini, and during the season wrote the Black Bears' weekly basketball newsletter.
 

FTF - Bracket Projections

I have the Gophers as the top #9 seed.

I do not have Kentucky in the field. The depth of their resume simply isn't there. I opted for Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LaSalle instead.



Seed Team
1.0 Gonzaga
1.0 Louisville
1.0 Indiana
1.0 Duke

2.0 Kansas
2.0 Miami
2.0 Georgetown
2.0 Ohio State

3.0 Florida
3.0 Michigan State
3.0 Michigan
3.0 New Mexico

4.0 Kansas State
4.0 Syracuse
4.0 Oklahoma State
4.0 Marquette

5.0 Arizona
5.0 Saint Louis
5.0 Memphis
5.0 UCLA

6.0 Wisconsin
6.0 Virginia Commonwealth
6.0 Notre Dame
6.0 North Carolina

7.0 Butler
7.0 Pittsburgh
7.0 Colorado State
7.0 UNLV

8.0 Creighton
8.0 San Diego State
8.0 Illinois
8.0 North Carolina State

9.0 Minnesota
9.0 Temple
9.0 Missouri
9.0 Oregon

10.0 Colorado
10.0 Cincinnati
10.0 Oklahoma
10.0 Wichita State

11.0 Iowa State
11.0 Belmont
11.0 Boise State
11.0 Saint Mary's College

12.0 Villanova
12.2 California
12.1 La Salle
12.1 Tennessee
12.2 Ole Miss
12.0 Akron

13.0 Bucknell
13.0 New Mexico State
13.0 Valparaiso
13.0 Davidson

14.0 South Dakota State
14.0 Montana
14.0 Florida Gulf Coast
14.0 Harvard


15.0 Northwestern State
15.0 Iona
15.0 Pacific
15.0 Albany

16.0 Western Kentucky
16.0 Long Island

Play-in Game 1
16.1 Southern
16.1 North Carolina A&T

Play-in game 2
16.2 Liberty
16.2 James Madison

Out
Virginia
Kentucky
Southern Miss
Middle Tennessee
 

I just posted my bracket as well.

I don't have Kentucky in. There isn't much depth to the Kentucky resume. A couple good wins, a few bad losses, but nothing good in between.

I took LaSalle and Tennessee both.

I left MTSU out. They have a very high RPI, but from a small conference, there just isn't the power of wins that these other teams have.

They are in my first four out.

Out
Virginia
Kentucky
Southern Miss
Middle Tennessee

Toughest decision was choosing Ole Miss (last team in) over Virginia
 

Thanks for posting. Always enjoy seeing other projections. It looks like we differ on 2. ... LaSalle and Tennessee (yours) vs. Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State (mine).
 




SelectionSunday said:
Thanks for posting. Always enjoy seeing other projections. It looks like we differ on 2. ... LaSalle and Tennessee (yours) vs. Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State (mine).
Click to expand...

Correct. The more I compared Tenn vs MTSU and Kentucky, I felt I had to take Tennessee.
 

Here is what I came up with
1. Indiana
1. Louisville
1. Gonzaga
1. Duke

2. Kansas
2. Miami
2. Ohio State
2. Georgetown

3. Florida
3. Michigan State
3. New Mexico
3. Syracuse

4. Michigan
4. Arizona
4. Wisconsin
4. Kansas State

5. Oklahoma State
5. Saint Louis
5. Butler
5. North Carolina

6. VCU
6. UCLA
6. Marquette
6. Pittsburgh

7. Creighton
7. Oregon
7. Memphis
7. UNLV

8. Missouri
8. Illinois
8. Notre Dame
8. Colorado State

9. Minnesota
9. NC State
9. Cincinnati
9. San Diego State

10. Colorado
10. Iowa State
10. Wichita State
10. Villanova

11. Saint Mary's
11. Oklahoma
11. California
11. Temple

12. Belmont
12. South Dakota State
12. LaSalle/Ole Miss
12. Middle Tennessee/Boise State

13. Valparaiso
13. Davidson
13. Akron
13. Bucknell

14. Montana
14. Harvard
14. Florida Gulf Coast
14. New Mexico State

15. Pacific
15. Albany
15. James Madison
15. Northwestern State

16. Iona
16. Western Kentucky
16. LIU Brooklyn/Southern
16. Liberty/NC A&T
 

For my 1000th (or 1001st, I've lost track) post I'll just say thanks for your input over the course of the season, and no Selection Sunday is complete without SS's final field picks. It's been a frustrating year and your voice of reason during the season is always welcome on this often bi-polar forum. I'll gladly take a 10 seed at this point and...I have no idea how this team will react. It's a new season, (kinda) so let's go and win some. It will be a very interesting few weeks for many reasons.
 


Assuming the brackets they posted today are final, here are the differences I have with Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm:

Lunardi and I differ on 1. He has LaSalle in the field, in their place I have Kentucky.

Palm and I differ on 2. He has LaSalle and Tennessee in the field, in their places I have Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State.

It appears Kentucky is my key team.
 

If Kentucky is that close to getting in, they're getting in. Due to #1, their history, #2, they travel well, #3, TV ratings higher, and #4 they are the defending champs. I know in a vacuum we'd all like to believe their credentials are based on this years resume and thats it, but I have a tough time beliving it.
 

I agree that Kentucky won't be held out. Too much tradition, too many fans that pack seats. Too much delicious chatter among TV types. The committee knows Kentucky is good for the Tourney and won't miss a chance to spice things up.

I'm hearing some late chatter for SF Austin to get in. That will be interesting. They had 4 losses by a combined 12 points. Also beat OU, one of the teams sharing the bubbble with them.

I'm hoping the Gophers get an 11 and play out West against someone like Colorado St. or UNLV...win that and perhaps get Oregon or Arizona as a 3 seed.
 

ZebH82 said:
I agree that Kentucky won't be held out. Too much tradition, too many fans that pack seats. Too much delicious chatter among TV types. The committee knows Kentucky is good for the Tourney and won't miss a chance to spice things up.

I'm hearing some late chatter for SF Austin to get in. That will be interesting. They had 4 losses by a combined 12 points. Also beat OU, one of the teams sharing the bubbble with them.

I'm hoping the Gophers get an 11 and play out West against someone like Colorado St. or UNLV...win that and perhaps get Oregon or Arizona as a 3 seed.
Click to expand...

Yeah but man is their strength of schedule horrible (299th out of 347). They played four games against top 100 teams, three of which were against NW St. To put it into another perspective, they lost to SE Louisiana, a team who did not win a single game in the non-conference, yet won 11 games in the same conference SF Austin played in.
 

I would love to see Kentucky miss out.
 



I've posted the final seedings with options for whether OSU or Wisconsin wins.
I'm competing with my site www.37score.com and 100 other bracketologist wannabe's on bracketmatrix.com so you can all rip me apart later on how I do.

Here is my final bracket if OSU wins. If Wiscy wins, they move up to a #3 flipping spots with Michigan and Michigan becomes the #4.
Changes since this morning. I kicked out Tennessee after Ole Miss won today. I had both in this morning, but felt Ole Miss would move to a 11 seed with the win.
That left me with Tennessee and MTSU. I switched allegiences and took the small school instead of the extra SEC team. I envisioned the committee with a bracket all finished except for Tennessee and Ole Miss as entrants with an either / or scenario since they were both bubble teams, which would give MTSU the nod in. With Ole Miss winning, I didn't think the committee could have them come back and play Tuesday already when they won their championship, so I moved them up to the 11 line.

Seeds if OSU Wins:
1.0 Gonzaga
1.0 Louisville
1.0 Kansas
1.0 Indiana
2.0 Miami
2.0 Duke
2.0 Ohio State
2.0 Georgetown
3.0 Florida
3.0 Michigan State
3.0 New Mexico
3.0 Michigan
4.0 Kansas State
4.0 Syracuse
4.0 Saint Louis
4.0 Wisconsin
5.0 Oklahoma State
5.0 Marquette
5.0 Arizona
5.0 UNLV
6.0 UCLA
6.0 North Carolina
6.0 Virginia Commonwealth
6.0 Memphis
7.0 Notre Dame
7.0 Butler
7.0 Pittsburgh
7.0 Colorado State
8.0 Creighton
8.0 San Diego State
8.0 Oregon
8.0 North Carolina State
9.0 Illinois
9.0 Minnesota
9.0 Temple
9.0 Missouri
10.0 Colorado
10.0 Cincinnati
10.0 Oklahoma
10.0 Wichita State
11.0 Iowa State
11.0 Belmont
11.0 Ole Miss
11.0 Boise State
12.0 Saint Mary's College
12.1 Villanova
12.2 California
12.2 La Salle
12.1 Middle Tennessee
12.0 Akron
13.0 Bucknell
13.0 New Mexico State
13.0 Valparaiso
13.0 Davidson
14.0 South Dakota State
14.0 Montana
14.0 Florida Gulf Coast
14.0 Harvard
15.0 Northwestern State
15.0 Iona
15.0 Pacific
15.0 Albany
16.0 Western Kentucky
16.0 Long Island
16.2 James Madison
16.1 Southern
16.1 North Carolina A&T
16.2 Liberty
 

ZebH82 said:
I agree that Kentucky won't be held out. Too much tradition, too many fans that pack seats. Too much delicious chatter among TV types. The committee knows Kentucky is good for the Tourney and won't miss a chance to spice things up.

I'm hearing some late chatter for SF Austin to get in. That will be interesting. They had 4 losses by a combined 12 points. Also beat OU, one of the teams sharing the bubbble with them.

I'm hoping the Gophers get an 11 and play out West against someone like Colorado St. or UNLV...win that and perhaps get Oregon or Arizona as a 3 seed.
Click to expand...

Maybe the chatter results from somehow, some way getting a team from Texas into the tournament
 

Great work, SS. I agree with you, I think Kentucky is getting in. A) They're the defending champs. B) They're Kentucky. The idea of LaSalle getting in over them is hard to see.
 



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