SelectionSunday
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ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN – Welcome to the final “Field of 68” projection for the 2025-26 college basketball season, which includes some thoughts on all the “last 4 in” and “first 4 out” bubble teams. In multiple-bid leagues an * denotes the automatic qualifier or highest remaining seed in the championship game. NET rankings are in parentheses.
I have projected the NCAA Tournament field since the 1991-92 season, compiling a 94.5% clip (1,091 of 1,155) on the at-large selections. There have been only four perfect seasons, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2013-14, and 2016-17. I’m way overdue for perfection; it’s time!
FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (3/15/26, 4:39 p.m.)
America East (1): UMBC (196)
American (1): South Florida (44)
ACC (7): *Duke (1), Virginia (12), Louisville (16), North Carolina (24), Miami (32), Clemson (34), NC State (36)
ASUN (1): Queens (189)
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis (30), *VCU (43)
Big East (3): UConn (10), *Saint John’s (15), Villanova (35)
Big Sky (1): Idaho (144)
Big South (1): High Point (76)
Big Ten (9): Michigan (2), Illinois (8), *Purdue (9), Michigan State (11), Nebraska (14), Wisconsin (25), Iowa (27), Ohio State (29), UCLA (31)
Big XII (8): *Arizona (3), Houston (5), Iowa State (7), Texas Tech (19), Kansas (21), BYU (23), TCU (39), UCF (51)
Big West (1): Hawaii (101)
Coastal (1): Hofstra (88)
Conference USA (1): Kennesaw State (155)
Horizon (1): Wright State (127)
Ivy (1): Penn (148)
MAAC (1): Siena (183)
MAC (2): *Akron (54), Miami U (64)
MEAC (1): Howard (203)
Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (72)
Mountain West (1): Utah State (26)
NEC (1): LIU (197)
OVC (1): Tennessee State (172)
Patriot (1): Lehigh (275)
SEC (11): Florida (4), Vanderbilt (13), *Arkansas (17), Alabama (18), Tennessee (20), Kentucky (28), Georgia (33), Texas (42), Texas A&M (44), Oklahoma (48), Missouri (58)
SoCon (1): Furman (186)
Southland (1): McNeese (56)
SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (300)
Summit (1): North Dakota State (114)
Sun Belt (1): Troy (125)
WCC (3): *Gonzaga (6), Saint Mary’s (22), Santa Clara (40)
WAC (1): Cal Baptist (98)
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Last 4 In: Texas A&M (44), Texas (42), Miami U (64), last team in Oklahoma (48)
First 4 Out: first team out San Diego State (47), SMU (37), New Mexico (46), Cal (68)
Next 4 Out: Auburn (38), Stanford (61), Indiana (41), Virginia Tech (55)
Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: LIU (197), Howard (203), Lehigh (275), Prairie View A&M (300)
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Saint Mary's (22), Saint Louis (30), Santa Clara (40), Miami U (64)
Multiple-Bid Conferences (8): SEC (11), Big Ten (9), Big XII (8), ACC (7), Big East (3), WCC (3), Atlantic 10 (2), MAC (2)
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LAST 4 IN & FIRST 4 OUT (records are vs. DI opponents)
Last 4 In (Why They’re In)
Texas A&M (21-11, 6-10 vs. the projected field) – The Aggies didn’t have any non-conference wins of great significance, but they made up for it with three road wins over SEC opponents projected to make the field (Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma). They also won two of three games vs. Oklahoma, the final team projected into the field.
Texas (17-14, 7-10 vs. the projected field) – The Longhorns lost five of their last six games, but they’re in on the strength of six Quad 1 wins (6-9 record), two more than any of my final eight bubble teams. They also had the strongest overall strength of schedule (SOS) at #20.
Miami U (28-1, 2-0 vs. the projected field) -- A perfect regular season will (and should) be rewarded by the Selection Committee. Note to RedHawks head coach Travis Steele. … don’t whine about your seed, whatever it is.
(Last Team In) Oklahoma (19-15, 5-12 vs. the projected field) – If there’s a 15+-loss team from the SEC deserving of an at-large bid it’s OU, not overly discussed Auburn. Though it’s not a selection criterion (I think it should be), the Sooners finished strong, winning six of their final seven games, including wins over projected tournament qualifiers Texas A&M, Missouri, and Texas. They also have the best Torvik/T-Rank (#40) and among final bubble teams the most wins (10) vs. Quads 1 & 2 combined. In addition, they have no losses outside of Quads 1 & 2.
First 4 Out (Why They’re Out)
(First Team Out) San Diego State (21-11, 1-5 vs. the projected field) – SDSU’s undoing mostly was due to its failure to capitalize on an aggressive (#43) non-conference schedule, toughest among the final group of bubble teams. The Aztecs whiffed on opportunities vs. Arizona, Michigan, and Baylor, losing the three games by a total of 73 points. They were trudging uphill all season after that and managed only one win (Utah State) vs. the projected field.
SMU (20-13, 3-8 vs. the projected field) – On Feb. 23 the Mustangs were 19-8, in cruise control, and looking like a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Then they lost five of their last six, three to opponents not projected to make the tourney field. The Mustangs were bad on the road (3-8) and other than Miami U (#363) had the worst non-conference SOS (#192) among the bubble teams.
New Mexico (22-10, 2-3 vs. the projected field) – The Lobos have notable non-conference wins against Santa Clara and VCU as well as a win over San Diego State, but their resume is otherwise barren. A pair of Quad 3 losses to Colorado State and New Mexico State (no other bubble teams had more than one) are a couple the Lobos would like to have back.
Cal (20-11, 4-4 vs. the projected field) – The Bears were firmly in the mix for an at-large bid but faded with losses in three of their last four games, all to opponents (Pitt, Wake Forest, Florida State) not projected to make the tournament. If that didn’t do them in, the non-conference schedule ranking (#326) likely did. Oski’s decent resume included wins over projected tourney qualifiers North Carolina, UCLA, and Miami (FL), as well as SMU and a sweep of late-season bubble team (“next 4 out”) Stanford. Truly a resume that was all over the place.
Bracket Musings
1. If Santa Clara does not receive an at-large bid, it will be highway robbery. I have a bad feeling the Selection Committee will look for any reason to keep the deserving Broncos out of the bracket, and what they’ll grab for is the Broncos’ Quad 4 loss to Loyola-Chicago way back in December.
2. Indiana should be nowhere near the tournament. If the Hoosiers get a bid, it will be more egregious than North Carolina’s “it pays to be a blueblood” inclusion last season.
3. I think of all the games in a college basketball season, and it kinda’ feels like the final piece of my at-large bubble puzzle came down to one game. VCU defeated South Florida 78-66 in a Nov. 26 neutral-site exempt tournament quarterfinal. The importance? Because of that win, I will keep the Rams in the final projection even if they lose to Dayton on Selection Sunday. If that single result were reversed and both VCU and South Florida lose Sunday, I would’ve kept the Bulls as one of the “last 4 in” and put VCU in the “first 4 out”. Any random game throughout the course of a season can be the difference-maker in March.
I have projected the NCAA Tournament field since the 1991-92 season, compiling a 94.5% clip (1,091 of 1,155) on the at-large selections. There have been only four perfect seasons, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2013-14, and 2016-17. I’m way overdue for perfection; it’s time!
FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (3/15/26, 4:39 p.m.)
America East (1): UMBC (196)
American (1): South Florida (44)
ACC (7): *Duke (1), Virginia (12), Louisville (16), North Carolina (24), Miami (32), Clemson (34), NC State (36)
ASUN (1): Queens (189)
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis (30), *VCU (43)
Big East (3): UConn (10), *Saint John’s (15), Villanova (35)
Big Sky (1): Idaho (144)
Big South (1): High Point (76)
Big Ten (9): Michigan (2), Illinois (8), *Purdue (9), Michigan State (11), Nebraska (14), Wisconsin (25), Iowa (27), Ohio State (29), UCLA (31)
Big XII (8): *Arizona (3), Houston (5), Iowa State (7), Texas Tech (19), Kansas (21), BYU (23), TCU (39), UCF (51)
Big West (1): Hawaii (101)
Coastal (1): Hofstra (88)
Conference USA (1): Kennesaw State (155)
Horizon (1): Wright State (127)
Ivy (1): Penn (148)
MAAC (1): Siena (183)
MAC (2): *Akron (54), Miami U (64)
MEAC (1): Howard (203)
Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (72)
Mountain West (1): Utah State (26)
NEC (1): LIU (197)
OVC (1): Tennessee State (172)
Patriot (1): Lehigh (275)
SEC (11): Florida (4), Vanderbilt (13), *Arkansas (17), Alabama (18), Tennessee (20), Kentucky (28), Georgia (33), Texas (42), Texas A&M (44), Oklahoma (48), Missouri (58)
SoCon (1): Furman (186)
Southland (1): McNeese (56)
SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (300)
Summit (1): North Dakota State (114)
Sun Belt (1): Troy (125)
WCC (3): *Gonzaga (6), Saint Mary’s (22), Santa Clara (40)
WAC (1): Cal Baptist (98)
--------------------------------
Last 4 In: Texas A&M (44), Texas (42), Miami U (64), last team in Oklahoma (48)
First 4 Out: first team out San Diego State (47), SMU (37), New Mexico (46), Cal (68)
Next 4 Out: Auburn (38), Stanford (61), Indiana (41), Virginia Tech (55)
Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: LIU (197), Howard (203), Lehigh (275), Prairie View A&M (300)
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Saint Mary's (22), Saint Louis (30), Santa Clara (40), Miami U (64)
Multiple-Bid Conferences (8): SEC (11), Big Ten (9), Big XII (8), ACC (7), Big East (3), WCC (3), Atlantic 10 (2), MAC (2)
-------------------------------
LAST 4 IN & FIRST 4 OUT (records are vs. DI opponents)
Last 4 In (Why They’re In)
Texas A&M (21-11, 6-10 vs. the projected field) – The Aggies didn’t have any non-conference wins of great significance, but they made up for it with three road wins over SEC opponents projected to make the field (Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma). They also won two of three games vs. Oklahoma, the final team projected into the field.
Texas (17-14, 7-10 vs. the projected field) – The Longhorns lost five of their last six games, but they’re in on the strength of six Quad 1 wins (6-9 record), two more than any of my final eight bubble teams. They also had the strongest overall strength of schedule (SOS) at #20.
Miami U (28-1, 2-0 vs. the projected field) -- A perfect regular season will (and should) be rewarded by the Selection Committee. Note to RedHawks head coach Travis Steele. … don’t whine about your seed, whatever it is.
(Last Team In) Oklahoma (19-15, 5-12 vs. the projected field) – If there’s a 15+-loss team from the SEC deserving of an at-large bid it’s OU, not overly discussed Auburn. Though it’s not a selection criterion (I think it should be), the Sooners finished strong, winning six of their final seven games, including wins over projected tournament qualifiers Texas A&M, Missouri, and Texas. They also have the best Torvik/T-Rank (#40) and among final bubble teams the most wins (10) vs. Quads 1 & 2 combined. In addition, they have no losses outside of Quads 1 & 2.
First 4 Out (Why They’re Out)
(First Team Out) San Diego State (21-11, 1-5 vs. the projected field) – SDSU’s undoing mostly was due to its failure to capitalize on an aggressive (#43) non-conference schedule, toughest among the final group of bubble teams. The Aztecs whiffed on opportunities vs. Arizona, Michigan, and Baylor, losing the three games by a total of 73 points. They were trudging uphill all season after that and managed only one win (Utah State) vs. the projected field.
SMU (20-13, 3-8 vs. the projected field) – On Feb. 23 the Mustangs were 19-8, in cruise control, and looking like a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Then they lost five of their last six, three to opponents not projected to make the tourney field. The Mustangs were bad on the road (3-8) and other than Miami U (#363) had the worst non-conference SOS (#192) among the bubble teams.
New Mexico (22-10, 2-3 vs. the projected field) – The Lobos have notable non-conference wins against Santa Clara and VCU as well as a win over San Diego State, but their resume is otherwise barren. A pair of Quad 3 losses to Colorado State and New Mexico State (no other bubble teams had more than one) are a couple the Lobos would like to have back.
Cal (20-11, 4-4 vs. the projected field) – The Bears were firmly in the mix for an at-large bid but faded with losses in three of their last four games, all to opponents (Pitt, Wake Forest, Florida State) not projected to make the tournament. If that didn’t do them in, the non-conference schedule ranking (#326) likely did. Oski’s decent resume included wins over projected tourney qualifiers North Carolina, UCLA, and Miami (FL), as well as SMU and a sweep of late-season bubble team (“next 4 out”) Stanford. Truly a resume that was all over the place.
Bracket Musings
1. If Santa Clara does not receive an at-large bid, it will be highway robbery. I have a bad feeling the Selection Committee will look for any reason to keep the deserving Broncos out of the bracket, and what they’ll grab for is the Broncos’ Quad 4 loss to Loyola-Chicago way back in December.
2. Indiana should be nowhere near the tournament. If the Hoosiers get a bid, it will be more egregious than North Carolina’s “it pays to be a blueblood” inclusion last season.
3. I think of all the games in a college basketball season, and it kinda’ feels like the final piece of my at-large bubble puzzle came down to one game. VCU defeated South Florida 78-66 in a Nov. 26 neutral-site exempt tournament quarterfinal. The importance? Because of that win, I will keep the Rams in the final projection even if they lose to Dayton on Selection Sunday. If that single result were reversed and both VCU and South Florida lose Sunday, I would’ve kept the Bulls as one of the “last 4 in” and put VCU in the “first 4 out”. Any random game throughout the course of a season can be the difference-maker in March.
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