Final Field of 68 Projection (March 15, 2:25 a.m.)

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SelectionSunday

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Here's my final projection, with a few notes at the end. I'm setting the over/under at 33.5 for the number of at-large selections of the 36 I get correct. Struggled with the last 5 or 6, usually I struggle with the last 2 or 3. Please note the Sunday contingency at the end of the projection. RPIs noted in parentheses.

FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION FOR 2015
America East (1): Albany (99)

American (3): SMU (13), Temple (34), Cincinnati (37)

ACC (6): Duke (6), Virginia (7), North Carolina (11), Notre Dame (15), Louisville (21), NC State (40)

Atlantic Sun (1): North Florida (162)

Atlantic 10 (3): VCU (17), Dayton (29), Davidson (35)

Big East (6): Villanova (2), Providence (22), Georgetown (25), Xavier (31), Butler (32), Saint John's (44)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (76)

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina (125)

Big Ten (6): Wisconsin (4), Maryland (12), Michigan State (23), Ohio State (39), Iowa (43), Purdue (54)

Big XII (7): Kansas (3), Iowa State (9), Baylor (10), Oklahoma (18), West Virginia (24), Texas (42), Oklahoma State (49)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (96)

Colonial (1): Northeastern (86)

Conference USA (2): **Old Dominion (46), UAB (139)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (50)

Ivy (1): Harvard (52)

Metro Atlantic (1): Manhattan (168)

MAC (1): Buffalo (28)

MEAC (1): Hampton (251)

Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa (14), Wichita State (16)

Mountain West (4): San Diego State (26), Colorado State (30), Boise State (41), Wyoming (72)

Northeast (1): Robert Morris (171)

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (105)

Pac 12 (3): Arizona (5), Utah (19), Oregon (27)

Patriot (1): Lafayette (122)

SEC (5): Kentucky (1), Arkansas (20), Georgia (38), Ole Miss (56), LSU (57)

Southern (1): Wofford (47)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (33)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (118)

Summit (1): North Dakota State (91)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (61)/Georgia Southern (109) winner (game is Sunday)

West Coast (1): Gonzaga (8)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (104)
______________________________________

**SUNDAY CONTINGENCY: If Connecticut beats SMU in the American championship game, the Huskies will replace Old Dominion, the final team in my Field of 68.

Last 4 In: Davidson (35), Ohio State (39), Boise State (41), **Old Dominion (46)

First 4 Out: BYU (36), Tulsa (45), Indiana (60), Murray State (62)

Others Considered: UCLA (48), Louisiana Tech (53), Richmond (58), Miami-Florida (66)

NOTES
(1) I'm taking a flyer on my final team (Old Dominion) even though the Monarchs lost their opening Conference USA Tournament game, and finished with 5 bad losses (RPI 101+). I like ODU's #43 non-conference SOS rank as well as its 6-2 record vs. the RPI top 100. There are some decent wins in there with VCU, LSU, and Richmond, as well as ones over C-USA regular-season champion Louisiana Tech, Colonial regular-season champion William & Mary, and Sun Belt regular-season champion Georgia State (playing for the automatic bid Sunday). As noted in the contingency above, ODU is out if UConn knocks off SMU.

(2) There were 3 regular-season champions with suspect resumes who failed to win their conference tournaments, Davidson (A-10), Boise State (Mountain West), and Murray State (Ohio Valley). Murray State got the most attention because of its 25-game winning streak and undefeated run through the OVC regular season, but the 2 I took for the field were Davidson and Boise State. I was especially leery of taking Davidson because of its #235 non-conference SOS rank, so I won't be surprised if I miss that one. I feel quite a bit better about Boise because the Broncos swept San Diego State.

(3) The SEC is/was a bubble mess. I didn't know who to take and who to leave out, as the resumes and RPIs of Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss were all over the place. Texas A&M's slide at the end made it easy to exclude the Aggies, but somewhat surprisingly I decided to take all 3 of Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss, and didn't put any of them in the "last 4 in". I did that with much trepidation. Won't be surprised if at least 1 of them (most likely Ole Miss) ends up in the First 4 in Dayton.

(4) Now to the Big Ten team I left out, Indiana, and one I kept in, Ohio State. I really, really, really wanted to exclude Ohio State because of its pedestrian resume, atrocious non-conference SOS rank (#217) and lack of high-quality wins (Maryland the only RPI top-50 win), but I just couldn't pull the trigger because the Buckeyes had zero bad losses. No need to thank me for your gift Buckeyes, you're welcome. Your punishment is a spot in the First 4, even though I know the Selection Committee isn't likely to send you to Dayton.

Unlike The Ohio State, Tom Crean's Hoosiers actually had multiple high-quality wins, 4 to be exact (Maryland, SMU, Butler), including one over the Buckeyes. But I just couldn't look past the Hoosiers' awful finish to the season, when they blew multiple opportunities to pick up that one extra quality win that was needed to seal a NCAA bid, most notably Iowa and Michigan State in Bloomington to end the season, and then Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. Bag one of those and I have no doubt the Hoosiers aren't in the position they are now, sweating out Selection Sunday.

(5) One of the very final things I look at when picking the last few at-larges is the record of each of my final 8 bubble teams vs. teams I projected into the field. Those records were as follows (in alphabetical order): Boise State (3-5); BYU (1-5); Davidson (2-4); Indiana (5-12); Murray State (1-3); Ohio State (3-9); Old Dominion (2-1, 3-1 if Georgia State wins later today); and Tulsa (2-6).

(6) Generally speaking, the Selection Committee doesn't like bubble teams who have non-conference SOS rankings in the 200s. I chose 2 such teams, the previously mentioned Buckeyes (#217) and Davidson (#235).

(7) LSU (#57) has the worst RPI of my at-large selections. SEC comrade Ole Miss was next at #56.

(8) Last year I was a perfect 36 for 36 on the at-larges, only the 3rd time I've hit perfection in the 23 years I've been doing this. The last time I missed more than 2 was the 2005-06 season.

I apologize in advance for any typos you may find, but it's late & time to go to bed. I'll try to address any questions and/or disagreements you have with my selections, but please note I'll be wrapping up my stay in Chicago with the Badgers-Sparty title game before heading back to Minny. Time will be short, but will do my best. Thanks for following along, and I hope to be back next year at this same time Bat time and same Bat channel.
 

Always enjoy this post, though this is always a really negative day for me when the bracket is unveiled and the Gophers are nowhere to be found. What stands out to me is that the Mountain West could get 4 bids as could the American, while the Pac 12 will likely have just 3. It's tough to imagine UCLA not ending up with a bid if they were in one of those conferences. It seems like its been a trend for awhile now of the Pac 12 not sending numbers to the dance and you'd think the conference would take steps to remedy that. The other interesting thing to me is how weak the at larges likely to be seeded 7 and lower this year are. Other than the Zags (because they haven't played tournament level opposition in forever), I'd be pretty shocked to see a 1 or 2 seed go down before the Sweet 16.
 

Not questioning the results, because you obviously known 100 times more about the bubble than I do, but this line surprised me, " But I just couldn't look past the Hoosiers' awful finish to the season," That implies that you weighted the final part of the season more heavily than earlier parts and we know the committee doesn't do that.
 

So Selection Sunday?

Nobody is more qualified to "guess" if the Gophers are in or out of the NIT.
What do you think after analyzing the field?
My conclusion was it's very hard to go past 50/50. And in some ways other
than bias and Big Ten member and defending champs it's bleak but we are a top
100 team and 68 and 32 is 100. But I spent an hour, you spent the winter doing this.
Thank you for your contributions!
 

I'm not doing a bracket this year.

I'm surprised how you believe Ohio State is bubble worthy.
Most have them around an 8 or a 9.
Not even close to the bubble.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Also, many already have Old Dominion out.

Although last year you were the only (along with maybe one or two out of 150+ who saw NC State slide into the tournament so kudos for that.
 


60's Guy said:
Nobody is more qualified to "guess" if the Gophers are in or out of the NIT.
What do you think after analyzing the field?
My conclusion was it's very hard to go past 50/50. And in some ways other
than bias and Big Ten member and defending champs it's bleak but we are a top
100 team and 68 and 32 is 100. But I spent an hour, you spent the winter doing this.
Thank you for your contributions!
Click to expand...

I think they answer is no they don't make it. They are barely a top 100 RPI team and there are teams outside the top 100 that get automatic bids to the NCAA, and probably others that will have automatic bids to the NIT.
 

justthefacts said:
Not questioning the results, because you obviously known 100 times more about the bubble than I do, but this line surprised me, " But I just couldn't look past the Hoosiers' awful finish to the season," That implies that you weighted the final part of the season more heavily than earlier parts and we know the committee doesn't do that.
Click to expand...

Excellent question, completely understand. Hoosiers have more quality wins than any of my last 4 in/first 4 out, so I guess I'm confessing it mattered to me how the Hoosiers finished. Human element to this process. Couldnt get past the fact IU's last 5 wins were Rutgers twice, Michigan, Northwestern, and the Gophers. I'd say IU and BYU were my first 2 teams out, for what that's worth.
 

60's Guy said:
Nobody is more qualified to "guess" if the Gophers are in or out of the NIT.
What do you think after analyzing the field?
My conclusion was it's very hard to go past 50/50. And in some ways other
than bias and Big Ten member and defending champs it's bleak but we are a top
100 team and 68 and 32 is 100. But I spent an hour, you spent the winter doing this.
Thank you for your contributions!
Click to expand...

Short answer is no. CBI if they choose to accept a bid.
 

Face The Facts said:
many already have Old Dominion out.

Although last year you were the only (along with maybe one or two out of 150+ who saw NC State slide into the tournament so kudos for that.
Click to expand...

Full disclosure. I'd probably prefer UConn win today & just take care of the ODU dilemma. It's a much bigger reach than NC State was last year.
 



ethomasp31 said:
I think they answer is no they don't make it. They are barely a top 100 RPI team and there are teams outside the top 100 that get automatic bids to the NCAA, and probably others that will have automatic bids to the NIT.
Click to expand...

Right now there are 11 automatic qualifiers to the NIT. If there were only nine, the Gophers' chances would be much better. Montana losing on their own home court after having a decent lead didn't help. Wyoming's victory didn't really hurt the Gophers' chances because Wyoming would have been in the NIT anyway. There is another potential automatic qualifier in Georgia State but I expect them to win today.

With 11 qualifiers they still have a chance but I would have to agree that it is probably less than 50%. Stranger things have happened, though. Iowa was selected in 2012 with an RPI well outside the top 100 and a 17-16 record.
 

Nice job SS, only differences I have is Indiana and BYU in for Old Dominion and Boise State the last spot comes down to BYU and Boise State for me but I went with BYU.
 

Goldy Gopher said:
Nice job SS, only differences I have is Indiana and BYU in for Old Dominion and Boise State the last spot comes down to BYU and Boise State for me but I went with BYU.
Click to expand...

There is also a fair chance that Indiana, Boise State, and BYU make it and Ole Miss is left out. I agree that ODU will not be selected. The committee has not been generous to that conference in the past and the fact that a team with a record barely over .500 that would not have received serious NIT consideration could sweep through that conference tournament didn't do anything to enhance that conference's reputation.
 

I trust SS ONLY on these projections.

Thank you, SS.
 



Seems the weakness of the bubble muddied the picture even more than usual. I hope you beat the blowhard Lunardi.
 

I still don't understand why teams don't get credit for conference finish because all games are created equal and then non-conference RPI means more than conference RPI.

Both of those things being true is completely contradictory.
 

So I'm on the UNC, VCU, MSU, UNI, and Harvard bandwagon this year.

And any team playing Wisconsin, Kentucky, NDSU, and Duke.

So in short, I'm cheering for every team except for Wisconsin, Kentucky, NDSU, and Duke.
 

Indiana in as a 10 seed facing Wichita State in their first game.
 

Indiana getting in I would think helps us for the NIT


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

I'd put Notre Dame in the Final Four in a heartbeat...if they were not in UK's region.
 



I don't get Texas. 3-12 against the top 50 is terrible. The Gophers have the same winning percentage against top 50 opponents.
 




Looks like Wisconsin and Arizona are together in the West (who's 1 is TBD, but doesn't really matter).
 




UCLA, Texas, Indiana all safely in. SMH. This is what drives me nuts about NCAA tourney selection ... every year there's some different criteria emphasized. This year clearly power conf bubble teams are getting in. Road record not emphasized.

The Gophers would have made the field last year with this selection committee.
 

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