Final Field of 68 Projection: Biggest Questions? Does SEC get 14 & does Mountain West get at least 4?

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SelectionSunday

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ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN – Without further ado, the final Field of 68 projection for the 2024-25 college basketball season. Please note, I am trying to match what I think the Selection Committee will do.

FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (4:40 p.m. March 16)
Automatic Qualifiers (31)
America East: Bryant (141)
American: Memphis (50)
ACC: Duke (1)
ASUN: Lipscomb (84)
Atlantic 10: VCU (31)
Big East: Saint John’s (13)
Big Sky: Montana (143)
Big South: High Point (82)
Big Ten: Michigan (25)
Big XII: Houston (3)
Big West: UC-San Diego (35)
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington (102)
Conference USA: Liberty (60)
Horizon: Robert Morris (139)
Ivy: Yale (72)
MAAC: Mount Saint Mary’s (236)
MAC: Akron (91)
MEAC: Norfolk State (183)
Missouri Valley: Drake (56)
Mountain West: Colorado State (47)
NEC: Saint Francis (297)
OVC: SIU-Edwardsville (216)
Patriot: American (226)
SEC: Florida (4)
SoCon: Wofford (131)
Southland: McNeese (58)
SWAC: Alabama State (274)
Summit: Omaha (160)
Sun Belt: Troy (99)
WCC: Gonzaga (8)
WAC: Grand Canyon (92)

At-Large Selections (37)
ACC (2): Clemson (22), Louisville (23)

Big East (3): Marquette (26), UConn (32), Creighton (38)

Big Ten (8): Maryland (10), Michigan State (11), Wisconsin (15), Illinois (17), Purdue (19), UCLA (27), Oregon (29), Indiana (54)

Big XII (7): Texas Tech (7), Iowa State (9), Arizona (12), Kansas (20), BYU (24), Baylor (30), West Virginia (51)

Mountain West (4): Utah State (37), New Mexico (42), Boise State (44), San Diego State (52)

SEC (12): Auburn (2), Tennessee (5), Alabama (6), Kentucky (15), Missouri (16), Texas A&M (18), Ole Miss (28), Georgia (33), Mississippi State (34), Texas (39), Arkansas (40), Oklahoma (43)

WCC (1): Saint Mary’s (21)
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Last 4 In: San Diego State, Texas, Indiana, (last team in) Boise State

First 4 Out: (first team out) Vanderbilt (48), Xavier (45), Wake Forest (69), Ohio State (41)

Next 4 Out: North Carolina (36), UC-Irvine (62), Dayton (67), SMU (46)

Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: American (226), Mount Saint Mary’s (236), Alabama State (274), Saint Francis (297)

Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (5): Saint Mary’s (21), Utah State (37), New Mexico (42), Boise State (43), San Diego State (52)

BEST 3 WINS FOR LAST 4 IN/FIRST 4 OUT/NEXT 4 OUT
Last 4 In
San Diego State – vs. Houston (3), UC-San Diego (35), vs. Creighton (38),
Texas – Kentucky (15), vs. Texas A&M (18), @ Mississippi State (34)
Indiana -- @ Michigan State (11), Purdue (19), @ Ohio State (41)
Boise State -- vs. Saint Mary’s (21), Clemson (22), vs. New Mexico (42)

First 4 Out
Vanderbilt -- Tennessee (5), Kentucky (15), @ Texas A&M (18)
Xavier -- @ Marquette (26), UConn (32), Creighton (38)
Wake Forest – vs. Michigan (25), North Carolina (36), @ SMU (46)
Ohio State – Maryland (10), vs. Kentucky (15), @ Purdue (19)

Next 4 Out
North Carolina – vs. UCLA (27), SMU (46), vs. Dayton (67)
Dayton – Marquette (25), @ VCU (31), vs. UConn (32)
UC-Irvine -- @ UC-San Diego (35), @ Northern Iowa (93), @ Cal State Northridge (105)
SMU – Pitt (61), vs. LSU (89), @ Notre Dame (103)

AT-LARGES/RECORD vs. THE FIELD
Auburn (17-5)
Tennessee (16-6)
New Mexico (8-4)
Alabama (15-8)
Michigan State (9-5)
Maryland (8-5)
Texas A&M (11-8)
Kentucky (12-9)
Oregon (9-7)
BYU (7-5)
Texas Tech (7-5)
UConn (6-5)
UCLA (7-6)
Illinois (9-8)
Ole Miss (11-10)
Missouri (10-10
Saint Mary’s (3-3)
San Diego State (7-7) – last 4 in
Utah State (6-6)
Purdue (8-9)
Boise State (6-7) – last team in
Iowa State (6-7)
Arkansas (9-11)
Clemson (3-4)
Wisconsin (6-8)
Arizona (8-11)
Creighton (5-7)
Marquette (5-7)
Louisville (4-6)
Oklahoma (8-12)
West Virginia (5-8)
Mississippi State (6-11)
Kansas (5-10)
Georgia (6-12)
Texas (6-12) – last 4 in
Baylor (5-11)
Indiana (3-10) – last 4 in

RECORD vs. THE FIELD/FIRST 4 OUT & NEXT 4 OUT
Dayton (4-2)
Vanderbilt (6-12)
UC-Irvine (1-2)
Xavier (3-7)
Ohio State (4-11)
North Carolina (2-10)
SMU (1-5)
Wake Forest (1-6)

My record projecting the at-larges since the 1991-92 season:

Projecting the At-Large Qualifiers (1991-92 through 2023-24)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 (perfect)
2014-15: 33/36
2015-16: 32/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 33/36
2018-19: 34/36
2019-20: Scamdemic-2020
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 34/36
2022-23: 34/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 1057/1118 (94.5%)
Buzz King Since Field Expanded to 68: 450/472 (95.3%)

Jerry Palm Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 35/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 35/36
2015-16: 34/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 35/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 35/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 34/36
TOTALS: 455/472 (96.4%)

Joe Lunardi Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 34/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 37/37 (perfect)
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 34/36
2015-16: 33/36
2016-17: 35/36
2017-18: 34/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 454/472 (96.2%)

Worst 5 At-Large Rankings since 2019 Move to NET
#77 Rutgers (2022) – lost in First Four
#73 Saint John’s (2019) – lost in First Four
#72 Wichita State (2021) – lost in First Four
#70 Michigan State (2021) – lost in First Four
#67 Pitt (2023) – lost in 2nd round
 
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Your prognostications and Stan's get er done's are likely the best parts of GH. 🙂.
Thanks for doing these, amazing how accurate you are, and here's to hoping the gophs are annually included starting in the very near future.
 
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Holy Man said:
I have duty this morning but my quick reaction is that I’m shocked to see Indiana in the field.
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I’m actually surprised, too. That’s a good indicator of how bad things are at the bottom of the at-large pool. Hoosiers, Boise State, Texas, and Vanderbilt were the 4 I really struggled with. If I had to pinpoint one reason I took the Hoosiers, it’s the win @ MSU + having zero losses outside of Quad 1.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I’m actually surprised, too. That’s a good indicator of how bad things are at the bottom of the at-large pool. Hoosiers, Boise State, Texas, and Vanderbilt were the 4 I really struggled with. If I had to pinpoint one reason I took the Hoosiers, it’s the win @ MSU + having zero losses outside of Quad 1.
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Perhaps the horrible bubble is an omen to the money grabbers that expanding the tournament is a really bad idea.

Major brain storming without thoughtful analysis, but I wonder if expanded conferences, fewer non conference games and far less opportunities for the mid majors to get quality wins softens the bubble. It’s still goes against all common sense for a 7-13 conference team to make it, but it will happen ( not sure about Oklahoma) and everyone will say, “You have to be kidding.”
 

Holy Man said:
I have duty this morning but my quick reaction is that I’m shocked to see Indiana in the field.
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Let me add Oklahoma to my list. 6-12 in conference should not qualify for the tournament. What does a fan base of a 6-12 team feel like? Hard to get excited about that.
 

Holy Man said:
Let me add Oklahoma to my list. 6-12 in conference should not qualify for the tournament. What does a fan base of a 6-12 team feel like? Hard to get excited about that.
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But they were 6-0 in the OOC against P5 teams, and beat Michigan, Louisville and Arizona all teams that made the conference tournament championship game in the other power conferences. Plus their overall record is 20-13. They have a pretty strong resume relative to teams around the cut line. My guess is they're in the 8/9 game.
 



Gophers7633 said:
But they were 6-0 in the OOC against P5 teams, and beat Michigan, Louisville and Arizona all teams that made the conference tournament championship game in the other power conferences. Plus their overall record is 20-13. They have a pretty strong resume relative to teams around the cut line. My guess is they're in the 8/9 game.
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Something has to give. I get it but there isn’t a better image of backing in than a 6-12 team getting in the tournament. The numbers probably justify it, but I’d rather see a mid major in the tournament.
 

I saw UCSD for the first time last night and they could be interesting. Their coach, Eric Olen, has a parallel story to Johnny Tauer, having been their coach since before they went D-1. I haven't paid attention to what kind of seed they're expected to get, but it's probably in that 10/11/12 range. They'll be a popular upset pick.
 

Holy Man said:
Let me add Oklahoma to my list. 6-12 in conference should not qualify for the tournament. What does a fan base of a 6-12 team feel like? Hard to get excited about that.
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I thought they were safely in but either Oklahoma or Indiana are in trouble.
 





Holy Man said:
Something has to give. I get it but there isn’t a better image of backing in than a 6-12 team getting in the tournament. The numbers probably justify it, but I’d rather see a mid major in the tournament.
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Agreed. The NCAA tournament should be a reward for a good season (your performance), not something that occurs because of your place on an index (heavily influenced by your primary opposition's performance). Of course, there is also the factor of conference expectations. The decision makers know that power conference coaches' job longevities are very dependent upon making the NCAA tournament while that is not as crucial for mid-major coaches.
 


14 of 16 teams in a single conference feels just disgusting

Edit for typo
 
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Missed 3.

Boise State, Indiana, West Virginia.

North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Xavier made it instead.

In my more than 30 years of doing this, North Carolina is the most egregious selection I’ve come across. The Tar Heels were 2-10 vs. the field, and one of those wins was American U. 🤮 🤮
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Missed 3.

Boise State, Indiana, West Virginia.

North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Xavier made it instead.

In my more than 30 years of doing this, North Carolina is the most egregious selection I’ve come across. The Tar Heels were 2-10 vs. the field, and one of those wins was American U. 🤮 🤮
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Extra incentive to root for the Aztecs.
 

upnorthkid said:
14 of 18 teams in a single conference feels just disgusting
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Umm, if that's bad how do feel about 14 of 16, which are currently in the SEC?

Last I checked anyway that's how many are in that Conference. They might have added Clemson & FSU since dinner.
 

Ope3 said:
Umm, if that's bad how do feel about 14 of 16, which are currently in the SEC?

Last I checked anyway that's how many are in that Conference. They might have added Clemson & FSU since dinner.
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Thank you for catching my typo,
 

upnorthkid said:
Thank you for catching my typo,
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Honestly (and I'm not being flippent) Conference size and membership is pretty hard to keep track of these days.

There were a couple of match ups in the Bracket, where I was like..how can those teams play that soon from the same Conference? Then I realized that they aren't any longer.

Some are currently in the Big 10. Which now has 18 teams. Go figure...

If my life depended on answering "How many teams are currently in the Big 12?", well let's just say I would be in some jeopardy. It would be a jump ball without Googling.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Missed 3.

Boise State, Indiana, West Virginia.

North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Xavier made it instead.

In my more than 30 years of doing this, North Carolina is the most egregious selection I’ve come across. The Tar Heels were 2-10 vs. the field, and one of those wins was American U. 🤮 🤮
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Their AD being the Selection Chair had nothing to do with it. Nothing!
 

We’ve decided the SEC is stacked yet they haven’t won the tournament in 13 years.

We’ll see where it all ends up in the end.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
We’ve decided the SEC is stacked yet they haven’t won the tournament in 13 years.

We’ll see where it all ends up in the end.
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I'd still happily take the SEC vs the field. You?
 



golfing18now said:
I'd still happily take the SEC vs the field. You?
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I don’t gamble.

Deep conference, but the ESPN experts all picked chalk for final 8. 1v2. They don’t seem to think it’s a deep tournament.
 

Who is doing the Gopher Hole tournament bracket this year?
 

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