SelectionSunday
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ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN – Without further ado, the final Field of 68 projection for the 2024-25 college basketball season. Please note, I am trying to match what I think the Selection Committee will do.
FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (4:40 p.m. March 16)
Automatic Qualifiers (31)
America East: Bryant (141)
American: Memphis (50)
ACC: Duke (1)
ASUN: Lipscomb (84)
Atlantic 10: VCU (31)
Big East: Saint John’s (13)
Big Sky: Montana (143)
Big South: High Point (82)
Big Ten: Michigan (25)
Big XII: Houston (3)
Big West: UC-San Diego (35)
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington (102)
Conference USA: Liberty (60)
Horizon: Robert Morris (139)
Ivy: Yale (72)
MAAC: Mount Saint Mary’s (236)
MAC: Akron (91)
MEAC: Norfolk State (183)
Missouri Valley: Drake (56)
Mountain West: Colorado State (47)
NEC: Saint Francis (297)
OVC: SIU-Edwardsville (216)
Patriot: American (226)
SEC: Florida (4)
SoCon: Wofford (131)
Southland: McNeese (58)
SWAC: Alabama State (274)
Summit: Omaha (160)
Sun Belt: Troy (99)
WCC: Gonzaga (8)
WAC: Grand Canyon (92)
At-Large Selections (37)
ACC (2): Clemson (22), Louisville (23)
Big East (3): Marquette (26), UConn (32), Creighton (38)
Big Ten (8): Maryland (10), Michigan State (11), Wisconsin (15), Illinois (17), Purdue (19), UCLA (27), Oregon (29), Indiana (54)
Big XII (7): Texas Tech (7), Iowa State (9), Arizona (12), Kansas (20), BYU (24), Baylor (30), West Virginia (51)
Mountain West (4): Utah State (37), New Mexico (42), Boise State (44), San Diego State (52)
SEC (12): Auburn (2), Tennessee (5), Alabama (6), Kentucky (15), Missouri (16), Texas A&M (18), Ole Miss (28), Georgia (33), Mississippi State (34), Texas (39), Arkansas (40), Oklahoma (43)
WCC (1): Saint Mary’s (21)
_____________________
Last 4 In: San Diego State, Texas, Indiana, (last team in) Boise State
First 4 Out: (first team out) Vanderbilt (48), Xavier (45), Wake Forest (69), Ohio State (41)
Next 4 Out: North Carolina (36), UC-Irvine (62), Dayton (67), SMU (46)
Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: American (226), Mount Saint Mary’s (236), Alabama State (274), Saint Francis (297)
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (5): Saint Mary’s (21), Utah State (37), New Mexico (42), Boise State (43), San Diego State (52)
BEST 3 WINS FOR LAST 4 IN/FIRST 4 OUT/NEXT 4 OUT
Last 4 In
San Diego State – vs. Houston (3), UC-San Diego (35), vs. Creighton (38),
Texas – Kentucky (15), vs. Texas A&M (18), @ Mississippi State (34)
Indiana -- @ Michigan State (11), Purdue (19), @ Ohio State (41)
Boise State -- vs. Saint Mary’s (21), Clemson (22), vs. New Mexico (42)
First 4 Out
Vanderbilt -- Tennessee (5), Kentucky (15), @ Texas A&M (18)
Xavier -- @ Marquette (26), UConn (32), Creighton (38)
Wake Forest – vs. Michigan (25), North Carolina (36), @ SMU (46)
Ohio State – Maryland (10), vs. Kentucky (15), @ Purdue (19)
Next 4 Out
North Carolina – vs. UCLA (27), SMU (46), vs. Dayton (67)
Dayton – Marquette (25), @ VCU (31), vs. UConn (32)
UC-Irvine -- @ UC-San Diego (35), @ Northern Iowa (93), @ Cal State Northridge (105)
SMU – Pitt (61), vs. LSU (89), @ Notre Dame (103)
AT-LARGES/RECORD vs. THE FIELD
Auburn (17-5)
Tennessee (16-6)
New Mexico (8-4)
Alabama (15-8)
Michigan State (9-5)
Maryland (8-5)
Texas A&M (11-8)
Kentucky (12-9)
Oregon (9-7)
BYU (7-5)
Texas Tech (7-5)
UConn (6-5)
UCLA (7-6)
Illinois (9-8)
Ole Miss (11-10)
Missouri (10-10
Saint Mary’s (3-3)
San Diego State (7-7) – last 4 in
Utah State (6-6)
Purdue (8-9)
Boise State (6-7) – last team in
Iowa State (6-7)
Arkansas (9-11)
Clemson (3-4)
Wisconsin (6-8)
Arizona (8-11)
Creighton (5-7)
Marquette (5-7)
Louisville (4-6)
Oklahoma (8-12)
West Virginia (5-8)
Mississippi State (6-11)
Kansas (5-10)
Georgia (6-12)
Texas (6-12) – last 4 in
Baylor (5-11)
Indiana (3-10) – last 4 in
RECORD vs. THE FIELD/FIRST 4 OUT & NEXT 4 OUT
Dayton (4-2)
Vanderbilt (6-12)
UC-Irvine (1-2)
Xavier (3-7)
Ohio State (4-11)
North Carolina (2-10)
SMU (1-5)
Wake Forest (1-6)
My record projecting the at-larges since the 1991-92 season:
Projecting the At-Large Qualifiers (1991-92 through 2023-24)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 (perfect)
2014-15: 33/36
2015-16: 32/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 33/36
2018-19: 34/36
2019-20: Scamdemic-2020
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 34/36
2022-23: 34/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 1057/1118 (94.5%)
Buzz King Since Field Expanded to 68: 450/472 (95.3%)
Jerry Palm Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 35/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 35/36
2015-16: 34/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 35/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 35/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 34/36
TOTALS: 455/472 (96.4%)
Joe Lunardi Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 34/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 37/37 (perfect)
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 34/36
2015-16: 33/36
2016-17: 35/36
2017-18: 34/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 454/472 (96.2%)
Worst 5 At-Large Rankings since 2019 Move to NET
#77 Rutgers (2022) – lost in First Four
#73 Saint John’s (2019) – lost in First Four
#72 Wichita State (2021) – lost in First Four
#70 Michigan State (2021) – lost in First Four
#67 Pitt (2023) – lost in 2nd round
FINAL FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (4:40 p.m. March 16)
Automatic Qualifiers (31)
America East: Bryant (141)
American: Memphis (50)
ACC: Duke (1)
ASUN: Lipscomb (84)
Atlantic 10: VCU (31)
Big East: Saint John’s (13)
Big Sky: Montana (143)
Big South: High Point (82)
Big Ten: Michigan (25)
Big XII: Houston (3)
Big West: UC-San Diego (35)
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington (102)
Conference USA: Liberty (60)
Horizon: Robert Morris (139)
Ivy: Yale (72)
MAAC: Mount Saint Mary’s (236)
MAC: Akron (91)
MEAC: Norfolk State (183)
Missouri Valley: Drake (56)
Mountain West: Colorado State (47)
NEC: Saint Francis (297)
OVC: SIU-Edwardsville (216)
Patriot: American (226)
SEC: Florida (4)
SoCon: Wofford (131)
Southland: McNeese (58)
SWAC: Alabama State (274)
Summit: Omaha (160)
Sun Belt: Troy (99)
WCC: Gonzaga (8)
WAC: Grand Canyon (92)
At-Large Selections (37)
ACC (2): Clemson (22), Louisville (23)
Big East (3): Marquette (26), UConn (32), Creighton (38)
Big Ten (8): Maryland (10), Michigan State (11), Wisconsin (15), Illinois (17), Purdue (19), UCLA (27), Oregon (29), Indiana (54)
Big XII (7): Texas Tech (7), Iowa State (9), Arizona (12), Kansas (20), BYU (24), Baylor (30), West Virginia (51)
Mountain West (4): Utah State (37), New Mexico (42), Boise State (44), San Diego State (52)
SEC (12): Auburn (2), Tennessee (5), Alabama (6), Kentucky (15), Missouri (16), Texas A&M (18), Ole Miss (28), Georgia (33), Mississippi State (34), Texas (39), Arkansas (40), Oklahoma (43)
WCC (1): Saint Mary’s (21)
_____________________
Last 4 In: San Diego State, Texas, Indiana, (last team in) Boise State
First 4 Out: (first team out) Vanderbilt (48), Xavier (45), Wake Forest (69), Ohio State (41)
Next 4 Out: North Carolina (36), UC-Irvine (62), Dayton (67), SMU (46)
Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: American (226), Mount Saint Mary’s (236), Alabama State (274), Saint Francis (297)
Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (5): Saint Mary’s (21), Utah State (37), New Mexico (42), Boise State (43), San Diego State (52)
BEST 3 WINS FOR LAST 4 IN/FIRST 4 OUT/NEXT 4 OUT
Last 4 In
San Diego State – vs. Houston (3), UC-San Diego (35), vs. Creighton (38),
Texas – Kentucky (15), vs. Texas A&M (18), @ Mississippi State (34)
Indiana -- @ Michigan State (11), Purdue (19), @ Ohio State (41)
Boise State -- vs. Saint Mary’s (21), Clemson (22), vs. New Mexico (42)
First 4 Out
Vanderbilt -- Tennessee (5), Kentucky (15), @ Texas A&M (18)
Xavier -- @ Marquette (26), UConn (32), Creighton (38)
Wake Forest – vs. Michigan (25), North Carolina (36), @ SMU (46)
Ohio State – Maryland (10), vs. Kentucky (15), @ Purdue (19)
Next 4 Out
North Carolina – vs. UCLA (27), SMU (46), vs. Dayton (67)
Dayton – Marquette (25), @ VCU (31), vs. UConn (32)
UC-Irvine -- @ UC-San Diego (35), @ Northern Iowa (93), @ Cal State Northridge (105)
SMU – Pitt (61), vs. LSU (89), @ Notre Dame (103)
AT-LARGES/RECORD vs. THE FIELD
Auburn (17-5)
Tennessee (16-6)
New Mexico (8-4)
Alabama (15-8)
Michigan State (9-5)
Maryland (8-5)
Texas A&M (11-8)
Kentucky (12-9)
Oregon (9-7)
BYU (7-5)
Texas Tech (7-5)
UConn (6-5)
UCLA (7-6)
Illinois (9-8)
Ole Miss (11-10)
Missouri (10-10
Saint Mary’s (3-3)
San Diego State (7-7) – last 4 in
Utah State (6-6)
Purdue (8-9)
Boise State (6-7) – last team in
Iowa State (6-7)
Arkansas (9-11)
Clemson (3-4)
Wisconsin (6-8)
Arizona (8-11)
Creighton (5-7)
Marquette (5-7)
Louisville (4-6)
Oklahoma (8-12)
West Virginia (5-8)
Mississippi State (6-11)
Kansas (5-10)
Georgia (6-12)
Texas (6-12) – last 4 in
Baylor (5-11)
Indiana (3-10) – last 4 in
RECORD vs. THE FIELD/FIRST 4 OUT & NEXT 4 OUT
Dayton (4-2)
Vanderbilt (6-12)
UC-Irvine (1-2)
Xavier (3-7)
Ohio State (4-11)
North Carolina (2-10)
SMU (1-5)
Wake Forest (1-6)
My record projecting the at-larges since the 1991-92 season:
Projecting the At-Large Qualifiers (1991-92 through 2023-24)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 (perfect)
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 (perfect)
2014-15: 33/36
2015-16: 32/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 33/36
2018-19: 34/36
2019-20: Scamdemic-2020
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 34/36
2022-23: 34/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 1057/1118 (94.5%)
Buzz King Since Field Expanded to 68: 450/472 (95.3%)
Jerry Palm Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 35/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 35/36
2015-16: 34/36
2016-17: 36/36 (perfect)
2017-18: 35/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 35/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 34/36
TOTALS: 455/472 (96.4%)
Joe Lunardi Since Field Expanded to 68
2010-11: 34/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 37/37 (perfect)
2013-14: 35/36
2014-15: 34/36
2015-16: 33/36
2016-17: 35/36
2017-18: 34/36
2018-19: 35/36
2019-20:
2020-21: 36/37
2021-22: 35/36
2022-23: 35/36
2023-24: 35/36
TOTALS: 454/472 (96.2%)
Worst 5 At-Large Rankings since 2019 Move to NET
#77 Rutgers (2022) – lost in First Four
#73 Saint John’s (2019) – lost in First Four
#72 Wichita State (2021) – lost in First Four
#70 Michigan State (2021) – lost in First Four
#67 Pitt (2023) – lost in 2nd round
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