Final Field of 12 projection (what I think committee will do & what I would do)

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SelectionSunday

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Two versions for our final look. Thanks for following along.

FINAL FIELD Of 12 PROJECTION(S)
What I Think the Committee Will Do
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Ohio State/#9 Tennessee (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Arizona State vs. #5 Texas/#12 *Clemson (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)

#2 *Georgia vs. #7 Notre Dame/#10 Indiana (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)
#3 *Boise State vs. #6 Penn State/#11 Alabama (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

First 2 Out: SMU, Miami

What I Would Do
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Tennessee/#9 Notre Dame (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Arizona State vs. #5 Penn State/#12 SMU (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)

#2 *Georgia vs. #7 Ohio State/#10 Indiana (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)
#3 *Boise State vs. #6 Texas/#11 *Clemson (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

First 2 Out: Alabama, BYU
 







SelectionSunday said:
Two versions for our final look. Thanks for following along.

FINAL FIELD Of 12 PROJECTION(S)
What I Think the Committee Will Do
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Ohio State/#9 Tennessee (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Arizona State vs. #5 Texas/#12 *Clemson (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)

#2 *Georgia vs. #7 Notre Dame/#10 Indiana (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)
#3 *Boise State vs. #6 Penn State/#11 Alabama (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

First 2 Out: SMU, Miami

What I Would Do
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Tennessee/#9 Notre Dame (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Arizona State vs. #5 Penn State/#12 SMU (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)

#2 *Georgia vs. #7 Ohio State/#10 Indiana (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)
#3 *Boise State vs. #6 Texas/#11 *Clemson (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

First 2 Out: Alabama, BYU
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I agree with spot on in terms of what I would do versus what will happen
 

I just find it annoying that some years quality wins matter
Some years bad losses matter

The one that matters year to year is whichever one favors the top brands in the conversation
 

Some guy said:
if they leave our SMU for bama there is a pretty good argument to then leave Texas out for ole Miss or South Carolina using the same logic

Texas nearly identical resume to SMU
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Yep.

Currently, both (Texas & SMU) have zero Top 25 wins and no bad losses (outside the top 25), difference being both Texas losses are to (presumably to be #2) Georgia while SMU's are to lower-end Top 25 opponents (BYU, Clemson).

In my opinion, Texas -- though I think deserving of selection -- will be the most over-ranked playoff team except for Notre Dame.
 



I also agree with your take, and if they put in Bama over SMU I would absolutely start to get a plan for forfeiting championship games. If you get penalized for losing an extra game by 3 on a 56yd FG then there is 0 reason to risk playing that game ever again.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Yep.

Currently, both (Texas & SMU) have zero Top 25 wins and no bad losses (outside the top 25), difference being both Texas losses are to (presumably to be #2) Georgia while SMU's are to lower-end Top 25 opponents (BYU, Clemson).

In my opinion, Texas -- though I think deserving of selection -- will be the most over-ranked playoff team except for Notre Dame.
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I think teams with bad losses are the teams that are over-ranked
Which makes me think Notre dame, Ohio State, and bama will be the most overranked teams. Even if bama is 12
 

I hope they don't put Indiana and Ohio State in round 1.

Maybe the committee doesn't care at all, but they should. There's 100 different reasonable permutations of the Rd 1 seeds and matchups out there, and they can easily and fairly tweak them to avoid games between conference foes who played each other in November.

My dad's a dual IU/ND fan and doesn't want that pairing, but I don't think the committee should give a hoot about that. Just conference games between teams that played this season.
 

Alabama will get in and no one will play a conference championship next season.

With a 12 team playoff, there is no reason for conference championships anymore. 12 teams is also too many for a playoff. 3 loss teams have no business playing for a national title. They should have only expanded to 6-8 teams.
 



GopherWeatherGuy said:
Alabama will get in and no one will play a conference championship next season.

With a 12 team playoff, there is no reason for conference championships anymore. 12 teams is also too many for a playoff. 3 loss teams have no business playing for a national title. They should have only expanded to 6-8 teams.
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Agree. Drop the championship games and award the title to the team that won the regular season. Give co-championship recognition to anyone that tied, and the bye to the team that was #1 based on the tiebreaker system you create.

Also, make the SEC play 9 conference games and stop playing Chattanooga in November. Helps find a regular season winner. Minnesota prepared for its rivalry week game by playing Penn State and did just fine.
 

Some guy said:
I think teams with bad losses are the teams that are over-ranked
Which makes me think Notre dame, Ohio State, and bama will be the most overranked teams. Even if bama is 12
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Fair point.

Penn State is basically Texas but has a Top 25 win (Illinois). Texas does not. That's why I think Penn State should be ahead of Texas.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Fair point.

Penn State is basically Texas but has a Top 25 win (Illinois). Texas does not. That's why I think Penn State should be ahead of Texas.
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It's wild to think about this but Minnesota has a Top 25 win against Illinois. What if one of those field goals goes in against North Carolina, and there's not that bad call on the onside kick vs Michigan and a play or two goes different vs Penn State?

Minnesota's very much in the playoff with losses to Iowa and Rutgers and an array of big wins. Probably hosting a first round game.

This season is showing us that the bar for a 12 team playoff isn't super high.
 

There probably is nothing about college football that bothers me more…

Regardless if it is a one year team-of-a-lifetime or a multi year knocking on the door situation, the blatant advantages showered on the “brands” of college football for playoff placement makes it really hard for non-brands to get a foothold.

The brands have so many built in advantages at every turn and on top of all that they still get the benefit of the doubt when things shake out for playoffs.
 

fmlizard said:
I hope they don't put Indiana and Ohio State in round 1.

Maybe the committee doesn't care at all, but they should. There's 100 different reasonable permutations of the Rd 1 seeds and matchups out there, and they can easily and fairly tweak them to avoid games between conference foes who played each other in November.

My dad's a dual IU/ND fan and doesn't want that pairing, but I don't think the committee should give a hoot about that. Just conference games between teams that played this season.
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I don’t mind same conference in round 1, but it would be awesome to move teams 5-12 around to avoid rematches in round 1-2

Sometimes unavoidable. But Ohio state Oregon in second round would be dumb.
Texas Georgia in second round would be dumb

Etc
 

The move to 12 is going to come with bumps in the road, I would've liked to go with 8.

Get rid of the championship games? Disagree. Last night was awesome.
 

balds said:
The move to 12 is going to come with bumps in the road, I would've liked to go with 8.

Get rid of the championship games? Disagree. Last night was awesome.
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They were great games. But they still don't make a lot of sense in the playoff era. A few teams get a bye - that's great. But the teams that lost now had to play an extra game. And teams that idled got a week of rest + may end up seeded higher than the conference runner-up. High risk-reward for playing in the CCG.

Plus if SMU gets left out of the CFP, it's an even bigger detriment to participating.
 


Nax5 said:
They were great games. But they still don't make a lot of sense in the playoff era. A few teams get a bye - that's great. But the teams that lost now had to play an extra game. And teams that idled got a week of rest + may end up seeded higher than the conference runner-up. High risk-reward for playing in the CCG.

Plus if SMU gets left out of the CFP, it's an even bigger detriment to participating.
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Championship games didn’t even really make sense in a 4 team playoff era

You guarantee one of the top teams in the conference an extra loss.
Once the playoff format had more at larges than conference champion spots, championship games were obsolete.
Everyone had to have one because TCU and Baylor got passed for Ohio state in 2014…but in a 12 team playoff both of them go
 

btowngopher said:
If they can make more money by having the conf championship games then they will keep them. That’s how they make all decisions in this sport.
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Yup.

But if the money you make from having it is outweighed by the money you lose from losing a playoff spot
 

This season and maybe most?...if it were 16 teams almost everybody with a legit argument is in the bracket.
Gophers were not that far from being in...lol...I mean like fmllzard said...it was very doable.
Really would like the bracket to avoid conference opponents in round one.
No matter what? Way more fun than four teams!
And i lean to avoiding conference championship games. Doubt that happens.
 

Here's my change as to how you select the 12:
  • Teams in the P4 that get into their conference championship game are automatically in.
  • The top two (or may one) ranked teams from other conferences that played in their championship game are in.
  • Leaving two (or maybe three) spots for teams that did not play in a championship game.
The key is that getting to your conference's championship game means you have a much better shot of making it into the playoffs.
 

I think, and hope, the CFP retains SMU over Alabama. It would set a terrible precedent to punish a team that loses a close conference championship game while rewarding a team for not playing. Past precedent like not punishing TCU in 2022 for losing to K State in the conference championship probably has SMU staying in.

If a team like SMU with a weak SOS gets its doors blown off in the championship game (like I thought was going to happen in the first half vs Clemson), that might be another story.

The CFP would probably do better for themselves by not publishing rankings until after the last games are played. They've boxed themselves in; but I like it the way it is.
 

HitMeAgainIAmStillMoving said:
Holding out hope SMU gets in over Alabama. But TV pays the bills and how many people even know where SMU is?
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Full Speed Ahead said:
Texas/Dallas is a lot bigger TV market than Alabama/Tuscaloosa, but ESPN will always work to protect the SEC.
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I was going to say the same. Dallas/Fort Worth is a massive football crazy market. Regardless, Alabama has a national brand while SMU was on absolutely no ones radar until this year in the ACC.

I have some secondhand ties to SMU. They have a lot of money, crazy boosters, and are going nowhere but up. The 1980s are calling except booster spending is legal now...and encouraged.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Fair point.

Penn State is basically Texas but has a Top 25 win (Illinois). Texas does not. That's why I think Penn State should be ahead of Texas.
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Agree.
The difference in Texas’ favor is Texas only lost to one team.
Penn state lost to two teams.
 

Full Speed Ahead said:
Here's my change as to how you select the 12:
  • Teams in the P4 that get into their conference championship game are automatically in.
  • The top two (or may one) ranked teams from other conferences that played in their championship game are in.
  • Leaving two (or maybe three) spots for teams that did not play in a championship game.
The key is that getting to your conference's championship game means you have a much better shot of making it into the playoffs.
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The biggest mistake of the playoff was a 12 team playoff with only 5 autobids

It should be a 12 team playoff for any conference champ in top 25…up to 9.

This year there would be 6 with 6 at larges

If they were only going to have 5 autobids they should’ve made it an 8 or 10 team playoff.
 

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