Field of 68 -- Still about 9 bids available; Gophers solidly in but work to do

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SelectionSunday

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Gophers RPI improves by 8 spots over the weekend, jumping from #41 to #33. They're still solidly in the field with work to do (along with 6 others), and are among 59 teams currently holding a spot in the 68-team NCAA tourney field. Current RPI (through Sunday) is noted in parentheses.

AUTOMATICS/CONFERENCE LEADER (32)
Kansas (1)
Arizona (2)
Syracuse (3)
Florida (4)
Wichita State (7)
Creighton (8)
Saint Louis (11)
Cincinnati (14)
Michigan (16)
San Diego State (20)
Gonzaga (22)
Toledo (30)
North Dakota State (47)
Harvard (56)
Belmont (62)
Green Bay (64)
Delaware (65)
Mercer (70)
Middle Tennessee (74)
Stephen F. Austin (77)
Iona (81)
Boston U (90)
Georgia State (98)
Vermont (111)
Cal-Irvine (117)
North Carolina Central (128)
Robert Morris (129)
Davidson (144)
Utah Valley (156)
Weber State (158)
Southern U (187)
Coastal Carolina (219)

VIRTUAL LOCKS (20)
Villanova (5)
Wisconsin (6)
Duke (9)
Iowa State (10)
UCLA (12)
Kentucky (13)
Ohio State (15)
Virginia (17)
Michigan State (18)
UMass (19)
Texas (21)
VCU (23)
Iowa (24)
UConn (25)
New Mexico (26)
Oklahoma (27)
Colorado (28)
North Carolina (31)
Memphis (34)
Louisville (36)

SOLIDLY IN, BUT WORK TO DO (7)
Arizona State (29)
Pitt (32)
GOPHERS (33)
Kansas State (35)
George Washington (37)
Xavier (41)
Cal (46)

ON THE BUBBLE (9 of these 16 would make the field)
Missouri (38)
Richmond (39)
BYU (40)
Saint Joseph's (43)
Oregon (44)
Oklahoma State (45)
Stanford (48)
SMU (49)
Baylor (50)
NC State (51)
Saint John's (52)
Nebraska (53)
Tennessee (54)
Providence (57)
Georgetown (58)
Dayton (59)

ON THE RADAR, BUT NOT QUITE ON THE BUBBLE (11)
Southern Miss (42)
Indiana State (55)
Saint Mary's (60)
Florida State (61)
Boise State (63)
Ole Miss (69)
West Virginia (71)
LSU (72)
Arkansas (75)
Marquette (76)
Louisiana Tech (80)
 

SMU with a road loss to lowly Temple.
Big game coming up in the Summit with South Dakota State visiting North Dakota State. Jackrabbits on a 6 game win streak.
 

SS, is NDSU an at-large consideration if they lose the Summit Tourney?
 

howeda7 said:
SS, is NDSU an at-large consideration if they lose the Summit Tourney?
Click to expand...

No chance.

NDSU is a "RPI tiger". Good RPI, but haven't really beaten anybody. Only top 100 win is over CAA leader Delaware.
 

Is it possible/likely that Nebraska gets in ahead of us? 9 or 10 conference wins seems well within reach for them, but if they were to finish with let's say one more conference win than we do, would they get a better seed than we do, assuming that both teams finish with between 8 and 10 conference wins?
 


Cayman said:
Is it possible/likely that Nebraska gets in ahead of us? 9 or 10 conference wins seems well within reach for them, but if they were to finish with let's say one more conference win than we do, would they get a better seed than we do, assuming that both teams finish with between 8 and 10 conference wins?
Click to expand...

It's possible, but let's see what the teams do down the stretch. Gophers have a better overall resume to this point, but Nebraska owns a head-to-head win and the best win of the two (@ MSU). But put it this way. If both teams finish 9-9 in the Big Ten, I think the Gophers are a lock for the tournament. I can not say the same for Nebraska; 10-8 probably the number they need to feel pretty good heading to Indianapolis.
 

Cayman said:
Is it possible/likely that Nebraska gets in ahead of us? 9 or 10 conference wins seems well within reach for them, but if they were to finish with let's say one more conference win than we do, would they get a better seed than we do, assuming that both teams finish with between 8 and 10 conference wins?
Click to expand...


I'd actually say this is unlikely.

If Nebraska finishes one game ahead of the Gophers, their RPI would still likely be 20 points lower.
RPI "doesn't matter" if it's really close, at least that's the way it used to be, but last year it looked like RPI was the main thing the committee used for selecting major conference teams.

I think Purdue had a better record than the Gophers last year, but the conference has an unbalanced schedule and thus the RPI is a better picture of the overall picture.

Nebraska ALMOST has to win out to be considered due to poor non-conference.
 

Nebraska needs to 5-1 from here, then go 1-1 in the BTT to have an RPI over 50.
 

Surprisingly, "last place Illinois" would be another decent (top 100) win on our resume if we get it... they're still at #86 on RPI.

At this point, I think I would bet on both the Gophers and Nebraska (currently #52) doing what they need to do down the stretch to make the tournament, giving the B1G seven teams.
 



Face The Facts said:
I'd actually say this is unlikely.

If Nebraska finishes one game ahead of the Gophers, their RPI would still likely be 20 points lower.
RPI "doesn't matter" if it's really close, at least that's the way it used to be, but last year it looked like RPI was the main thing the committee used for selecting major conference teams.

I think Purdue had a better record than the Gophers last year, but the conference has an unbalanced schedule and thus the RPI is a better picture of the overall picture.

Nebraska ALMOST has to win out to be considered due to poor non-conference.
Click to expand...

So you're saying 11-7 in conference would not get them in? 10-8?
 

5-1 in their last 6 games gives them a record of 11-7 in the B1G....and they can get there with their remaining schedule. If the Gophers lose at Michigan, at Ohio State, and to Iowa they finish at 8-10 if they beat Penn State and Illinois. If the Gophers and Nebraska have similar B1G tournaments and Nebraska finishes 2 games ahead of the Gophers they are in at least as good of a position as the Gophers to get the B1G 6th bid. If that happens I think both teams go.

Nebraska has Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin and Northwestern at home along with Indiana and Illinois on the road. That is a super easy schedule coming down the stretch and they already have one less loss than the Gophers in the B1G. If there is a two game difference between Nebraska and the Gophers, my only concern would be that the committee would see a definite split between the top if the B1G and the bottom of the B1G.

Personally, I don't think the B1G is as strong this year as it has been in the past, especially with all of MSU's injuries and the McGary injury for Michigan. Also Indiana, Purdue and Illinois not very good this year either. I know everyone keeps on saying they are the best conference, but I don't see it this year.

Whoever set up the Gophers schedule is a genius. When you figure that their best two non conference wins were against Richmond on the road and Florida State at home and all they have to do is go 8-10 in the B1G to be a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament the person making the schedule must have done something right. I'm sure Syracuse staying undefeated hasn't hurt their RPI either.
 

station19 said:
So you're saying 11-7 in conference would not get them in? 10-8?
Click to expand...


11-7 (19-11 overall) with a 1-1 BTT record would put them at an RPI of about 45 and they'd be in.

If they go 10-8 in conference play, they'd have to go 2-1 in BTT play most likely for a similar RPI.
 

I'm not sure what helps the Gophers RPI the most, but the fact they barely ever play really low ranked teams seems to help.
They find opponents from smaller conference who they can beat, who are likely to do well in their conference.
 



If Nebraska goes 5-1 or even 4-2 their last 6 games I think they are in for sure......

5-1 gives them a 10-2 record in their last 12 games including a win @ MSU.

4-2 gives them a 10-8 record in the B1G, 9-3 record in their last 12 games a win @ MSU and a head to head win against us. If we finish 8-10 in the B1G and we get in and they don't.....there is something wrong if our B1G Tournaments are similar. Like I've said, if that happens I think both teams make it.
 

ethomasp31 said:
If Nebraska goes 5-1 or even 4-2 their last 6 games I think they are in for sure......

5-1 gives them a 10-2 record in their last 12 games including a win @ MSU.

4-2 gives them a 10-8 record in the B1G, 9-3 record in their last 12 games a win @ MSU and a head to head win against us. If we finish 8-10 in the B1G and we get in and they don't.....there is something wrong if our B1G Tournaments are similar. Like I've said, if that happens I think both teams make it.
Click to expand...

It's the whole body of work. They started out 8-8.
 

Yeah I understand that......but when you look at the RPI, one of the columns is L12 which is the record in the last 12 games....just like record against top 50 teams....SOS and so on. My guess Is the record in their last 12 games is built into the computer algorithm that kicks out the RPI. I know the BIG doesn't have a balanced schedule.....but if Nebraska is two games ahead of the Gophers in the B1G, the two teams will be looked at similarly. If they are 3 games ahead, including a win on the road against MSU, I think Nebraska would have an edge.


Like I've said, I think the Gophers will do enough to get in the tournament, but I also suspect that Nebraska will as well. Beat Illinois and the Gophers should be looking really good to make the dance....lose that game and we are in trouble.
 

Your last 10 or last 12 games aren't going to move a team with an RPI of 65 above a team with an RPI of 45.
 

Nebraska has an RPI of 52 right now....ours is 33. If they win 5 of their last 6 games or 4 of the next 6, and we lost 3 of our last 5 games are going to moving closer together. How much do you think their RPI will move if they win 5 of their next 6 games? How about if we lost 3 of our last 5?
 

With Nebraska's remaining schedule, 10-8 looks very attainable. I think if they pick up another road/neutral win and/or beat Wisconsin they'll fall on the right side of the bubble in Dayton.

The Huskers and St John's are both interesting case studies, did nothing in Non-conference and now are on a roll.
 

ethomasp31 said:
Nebraska has an RPI of 52 right now....ours is 33. If they win 5 of their last 6 games or 4 of the next 6, and we lost 3 of our last 5 games are going to moving closer together. How much do you think their RPI will move if they win 5 of their next 6 games? How about if we lost 3 of our last 5?
Click to expand...

Nebraska(14-10)
Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1036.31.07%
19-1145.99.87%
18-1257.625.65%
17-1371.233.93%
16-1483.621.68%
15-1596.26.89%
14-16111.60.90%

<tbody>
</tbody>

Minnesota (16-9)
Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-920.40.64%
20-1026.97.56%
19-1134.129.19%
18-1243.141.85%
17-1353.818.13%
16-1466.62.62%

<tbody>
</tbody>
 

Gold Vision said:
Nebraska(14-10)
Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1036.31.07%
19-1145.99.87%
18-1257.625.65%
17-1371.233.93%
16-1483.621.68%
15-1596.26.89%
14-16111.60.90%

<tbody>
</tbody>

Minnesota (16-9)
Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-920.40.64%
20-1026.97.56%
19-1134.129.19%
18-1243.141.85%
17-1353.818.13%
16-1466.62.62%

<tbody>
</tbody>
Click to expand...

This seems a little more reasonable than the posts suggesting we'll drop to 60 if we go 8-10 and lose the first game in the BTT. Nevertheless, it still suggests a nerve-wracking opening BTT game if we "only" finish 8-10, with a loss possibly dropping us to the low 40's or possibly even 50ish ... meaning a nervous and possibly disappointing Selection Sunday.

So still a ways to go for us.
 

WanderingGopher said:
This seems a little more reasonable than the posts suggesting we'll drop to 60 if we go 8-10 and lose the first game in the BTT. Nevertheless, it still suggests a nerve-wracking opening BTT game if we "only" finish 8-10, with a loss possibly dropping us to the low 40's or possibly even 50ish ... meaning a nervous and possibly disappointing Selection Sunday.

So still a ways to go for us.
Click to expand...

It's definitely not perfect, but it gives a reasonable snap shot. Probabilities are based on Current Sagarin Rankings.
 

How are you basing the probability of each finish? Looking at Nebraska's schedule and where the games are played, I think they have a better than 36% chance to finish with at least 4 wins.
 

ethomasp31 said:
How are you basing the probability of each finish? Looking at Nebraska's schedule and where the games are played, I think they have a better than 36% chance to finish with at least 4 wins.
Click to expand...

Sagarin Predictor. Not my calcs. At Illinois is the swing game.
 


Selection Sunday, how the heck does Stephen F. Austin get away without playing any big time schools? They must never have any decent pay days. I thought most of the small schools had to go get clobbered to fill the coffers. The 21 game win streak is impressive. (I was checking on Lamar after reading the Knight news.)
 

fan of Ray Williams said:
Selection Sunday, how the heck does Stephen F. Austin get away without playing any big time schools? They must never have any decent pay days. I thought most of the small schools had to go get clobbered to fill the coffers. The 21 game win streak is impressive. (I was checking on Lamar after reading the Knight news.)
Click to expand...

SFA has been pretty decent the past few years, so it's a little surprising they don't schedule at least 2-3 decent opponents, even if they're all on the road. Texas is the only high major opponent they played this season. It's possible they're one of those (decent) low-major programs the high-majors don't want to touch.
 

I could be wrong, but...

WanderingGopher said:
This seems a little more reasonable than the posts suggesting we'll drop to 60 if we go 8-10 and lose the first game in the BTT. Nevertheless, it still suggests a nerve-wracking opening BTT game if we "only" finish 8-10, with a loss possibly dropping us to the low 40's or possibly even 50ish ... meaning a nervous and possibly disappointing Selection Sunday.

So still a ways to go for us.
Click to expand...

WG, I think you are missing something. We are currently 16-9 (Chaminade does not count). If we finish 2-3 to be 18-12 an then lose the first BTT game against someone on the 100 RPI range we could wind up at the "60-ish" range as 18-13.

Sagarin link provided in the link says: 18-13 58.06% 61.0 13.62%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Minnesota.html

Sagarin shows Purdue, Indiana, Penn State and Northwestern with an expected regular season ending RP over 100.

BUT, I could be wrong :D
 

Section201 said:
WG, I think you are missing something. We are currently 16-9 (Chaminade does not count). If we finish 2-3 to be 18-12 an then lose the first BTT game against someone on the 100 RPI range we could wind up at the "60-ish" range as 18-13.

Sagarin link provided in the link says: 18-13 58.06% 61.0 13.62%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Minnesota.html

Sagarin shows Purdue, Indiana, Penn State and Northwestern with an expected regular season ending RP over 100.

BUT, I could be wrong :D
Click to expand...


This is the part I don't get.
They are an RPI of 43 with an 18-12 record.
But if they go 18-13 (including the BTT tournament, it goes to 61.
A single loss to an unknown team (expected to be an RPI of about 100-110 should not drop your score after 30 games to the point of moving the RPI to 61.

Meanwhile, the same site says that if they go 17-13, they have an RPI of 53.9.
 

Face The Facts said:
This is the part I don't get.
They are an RPI of 43 with an 18-12 record.
But if they go 18-13 (including the BTT tournament, it goes to 61.
A single loss to an unknown team (expected to be an RPI of about 100-110 should not drop your score after 30 games to the point of moving the RPI to 61.
Click to expand...

+1 That's the biggest surprise to me as well. So if we finish 2-3 our RPI is likely around 43. And then if we lose the BTT opener we drop all the way to 61?? (putting us perhaps on the wrong side of the bubble). Even if he's projecting early conf tourney losses for some of our prior opponents as well, I don't remember ever seeing a team drop 18 RPI spots for a single loss that late in the season.

Aside from the math, I think it would be ridiculous if a loss to say, Indiana, in Indianapolis were to knock us out of the tourney. I don't care what Indiana's RPI says, that is a very talented team and would be one heck of a tough game in INDY for the BTT opener.
 

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