Field of 68 Projection

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Breakin' The Plane said:
On Pitino's KFAN show today, he said they'd be in with a win tonight. Not sure I'm that confident.
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Richard is usually pretty smart with this kind of stuff, but if that's what he specifically said don't think I'd be saying that for my players to hear.

So let's say the Gophers win tonight, and they believe their coach. Human nature might be to have a letdown @ Maryland, especially after your coach has declared you're in with previous win. Never give them a reason to take the foot off the gas.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Richard is usually pretty smart with this kind of stuff, but if that's what he specifically said don't think I'd be saying that for my players to hear.

So let's say the Gophers win tonight, and they believe their coach. Human nature might be to have a letdown @ Maryland, especially after your coach has declared you're in with previous win. Never give them a reason to take the foot off the gas.
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It was a very odd exchange. Grimm specifically led up to the question talking about NCAA hopes and asked Pitino if he addressed that with the team and dealing the the pressure.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Richard is usually pretty smart with this kind of stuff, but if that's what he specifically said don't think I'd be saying that for my players to hear.

So let's say the Gophers win tonight, and they believe their coach. Human nature might be to have a letdown @ Maryland, especially after your coach has declared you're in with previous win. Never give them a reason to take the foot off the gas.
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I do think with a very soft bubble that winning tonight does clinch a berth and that is what will be great to see- Gophers fighting for a spot and Purdue fighting for a BIG 10 title.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Richard is usually pretty smart with this kind of stuff, but if that's what he specifically said don't think I'd be saying that for my players to hear.

So let's say the Gophers win tonight, and they believe their coach. Human nature might be to have a letdown @ Maryland, especially after your coach has declared you're in with previous win. Never give them a reason to take the foot off the gas.
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If the team isn’t going to give their best effort in every game then they’re a crappy team.

People read way too much into this kind of stuff imo
 




Wednesday's Bubblicious

Florida and Seton Hall with the biggest resume opportunities tonight. The others simply in "can not lose" mode tonight.

Creighton (Providence)
Florida (LSU)
Georgetown (@ DePaul)
NC State (Georgia Tech)
Ohio State (@ Northwestern)
Seton Hall (Marquette)
 

SelectionSunday said:
Florida and Seton Hall with the biggest resume opportunities tonight. The others simply in "can not lose" mode tonight.

Creighton (Providence)
Florida (LSU)
Georgetown (@ DePaul)
NC State (Georgia Tech)
Ohio State (@ Northwestern)
Seton Hall (Marquette)
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Northwestern is our friend tonight. Bite the Buckeyes and demoralize them before they bring Kaleb Wesson back.
 



Gophers need another win. I hope that its Maryland.
 

Block M said:
Gophers need another win. I hope that its Maryland.
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Maryland on the road is a tall order. That would be sweet indeed. We will need contributions like last night PLUS good games from Oturu and Gabe to make that happen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 





SelectionSunday said:
Richard is usually pretty smart with this kind of stuff, but if that's what he specifically said don't think I'd be saying that for my players to hear.

So let's say the Gophers win tonight, and they believe their coach. Human nature might be to have a letdown @ Maryland, especially after your coach has declared you're in with previous win. Never give them a reason to take the foot off the gas.
Click to expand...
I'd rather they feel the pressure come off and come out loose. The defensive intensity might be slightly lower but when you come out relaxed your shooting can be much better.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Richard is usually pretty smart with this kind of stuff, but if that's what he specifically said don't think I'd be saying that for my players to hear.

So let's say the Gophers win tonight, and they believe their coach. Human nature might be to have a letdown @ Maryland, especially after your coach has declared you're in with previous win. Never give them a reason to take the foot off the gas.
Click to expand...

Take their foot off the gas because the coach is probably right by stating they are in with a win? Jesus christ, why do people on this board try to make every situation a negative. He is simply stating that a win over #11 Purdue should solidify the team's tournament birth. Hell, if I was on the team and the coach told me that I would be fired up, ready to play.
 

Maryland did what they wanted in the second half against the Gophers the first time. Hopefully the Gophers re-watch that second half and play with more toughness. Maryland's inside players are a tough match up for our bigs, but I would love to see a win. If the Gophers were to lose their next two games, I wonder if there is a decent chance they could be in one of the play in games?
 

WorkingMyTailOff said:
Maryland did what they wanted in the second half against the Gophers the first time. Hopefully the Gophers re-watch that second half and play with more toughness. Maryland's inside players are a tough match up for our bigs, but I would love to see a win. If the Gophers were to lose their next two games, I wonder if there is a decent chance they could be in one of the play in games?
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I really think we are in even if we lose the next 2.

I would venture some will have us on a 10 right now and the same after a loss to MD.

Arizona St, Indiana, Clemson, Temple, Xavier, TCU...
Those teams are all unlikely to pass us at this point.
That's a lot of teams that have to leapfrog us after we play two decent teams.

Losing to MD and beating Illinois would probably have us at a 10.
Lose both = 11.
 

The biggest worry for the gophers not getting in isn’t the fellow bubble teams it’s the bid stealers from the smaller conferences. Buffalo, Wofford, Gonzaga, VCU, Belmont, Nevada and Washington are who we really need to win. But let’s win at Maryland and remove all doubt!
 

The Bubble said:
The biggest worry for the gophers not getting in isn’t the fellow bubble teams it’s the bid stealers from the smaller conferences. Buffalo, Wofford, Gonzaga, VCU, Belmont, Nevada and Washington are who we really need to win. But let’s win at Maryland and remove all doubt!
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Bingo.

There are a lot of them out there, as you pointed out.

Kevin Pauga, the KPI rankings/statistical guy, made a good point I saw. When factoring in those final at-large bids, he said historically on average 2.8 bids get stolen per season. I think odds are this year that number will be higher (4-6?). So even if your team (in this case the Gophers) is perceived to be a couple spots above the "last 4 in", there are likely to be some anxious moments during Championship Week and then on Selection Sunday.

I agree with The Bubble, beat Maryland and be done with it.
 
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From SI's bubble watch:

Minnesota (19–11, NET: 56, Q1: 3–8, Q2: 7–3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

Minnesota did what Alabama couldn’t, notching a signature win at home over a high-level at-large team. Tuesday’s win over Purdue has the Golden Gophers a much better bet for the tournament than they were 24 hours prior. They could lock up a bid by upsetting Maryland in College Park on Friday, but they do not need that game to get an invite. Minnesota won’t be in any jeopardy of missing out on the dance if it avoids a bad loss in the Big Ten tournament, and even that likely wouldn’t knock the Gophers out of the field.
 

Jerry Palm has us as a #10 seed.


Other 10's

Florida
St. John's
Washington

11's
Temple
Alabama
Ohio St
TCU

12's
Belmont
Texas
NC St
Georgetown
St. Mary's


That's a lot of teams that have to pass us for us to be in danger after losing to MD and Illinois.
Few of those teams have chances for another signature win.
 

ESPN Joe say #11 seed.

Last 4 byes
Ole Miss
Minnesota
St. John's
Arizona State

Last Four In
Alabama
Seton Hall
Temple
TCU

First Four Out
Clemson
Saint Mary's
Furman
Murray State

Next Four Out
Indiana
Georgetown
Xavier
Creighton

A team like Indiana or Clemson has some big games remaining to make good upwards movement, but them gaining another Q2 or Q3 win isn't going to carry a lot of water.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Bingo.

There are a lot of them out there, as you pointed out.

Kevin Pauga, the KPI rankings/statistical guy, made a good point I saw. When factoring in those final at-large bids, he said historically on average 2.8 bids get stolen per season. I think odds are this year that number will be higher (4-6?). So even if your team (in this case the Gophers) is perceived to be a couple spots above the "last 4 in", there are likely to be some anxious moments during Championship Week and then on Selection Sunday.

I agree with The Bubble, beat Maryland and be done with it.
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If your conference is historical a 1-bid conf, and even if you have a highly ranked team ... if they suddenly, somehow "blow it" in the tourny ..... too bad, they don't deserve an at-large! Probably cheated the tourny to try to get two teams from the conf.
 

Which small conference teams are we worried about not winning their tournament?

Belmont - Ohio Valley
Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun?

I know RPI isn't used anymore but by that traditional measure, Lipscomb would have zero chance (RPI of 74)
Belmont at 40-42 would be unlikely at large.

But with this newfangled NET, maybe.
 

Face The Facts said:
Which small conference teams are we worried about not winning their tournament?

Belmont - Ohio Valley
Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun?

I know RPI isn't used anymore but by that traditional measure, Lipscomb would have zero chance (RPI of 74)
Belmont at 40-42 would be unlikely at large.

But with this newfangled NET, maybe.
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Gonzaga for sure.

It is not just limited to "small conferences" this year. Washington losing in the Pac12 would eat up a bid (plus hurt the Gophers NET/SOS et al). The Big East is also a strong candidate for a bid stealer.
 

Gophers_4life said:
If your conference is historical a 1-bid conf, and even if you have a highly ranked team ... if they suddenly, somehow "blow it" in the tourny ..... too bad, they don't deserve an at-large! Probably cheated the tourny to try to get two teams from the conf.
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Every year there are teams from mid-major conferences that people like you say "don't play anybody and don't deserve an at-large bid" who go on to beat power conference teams. Here's just last year's list of mid-majors beating power conference teams:

#11 seed St. Bonaventure beat #11 seed UCLA
#16 UMBC beat #1 Virginia
#13 Buffalo beat #4 Arizona State (with the #1 draft pick)
#11 Loyola-Chicago beat #6 Miami Florida
#7 Nevada beat #10 Texas
#13 Marshall also beat #4 Wichita but Wichita isn't a power 6 team
 

I don't know how we are "safe" yet Lunardi and co. barely moved us up at all after last night. We are not safe. We need to win one more game.
 

Face The Facts said:
Which small conference teams are we worried about not winning their tournament?

Belmont - Ohio Valley
Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun?

I know RPI isn't used anymore but by that traditional measure, Lipscomb would have zero chance (RPI of 74)
Belmont at 40-42 would be unlikely at large.

But with this newfangled NET, maybe.
Click to expand...

The ones I list below are I believe locks if they lose in tourney besides maybe Belmont:
VCU A-10 - no real at large candidates outside very long shot Davidson
Wofford SoCon - some people have Furman potentially but I don’t see it with them given history of at larges for mid majors
Gonzaga WCC - St Mary’s has zero valuable wins so to get one they would need the automatic anyways by beating Gonzaga
Belmont OVC- Ja Morant factor at Murray St shouldn’t get them in regardless how good he is
Buffalo MAC - no one else in conference remotely worth a bid
Pac 12 and Mountain West Washington and Nevada with back up choices to win those being Arizona St and Utah st are fine with me as they currently are both probably in.
Also I am slightly worried about Big East as I don’t trust Marquette or this Villanova squad to 100% win that tourney.
 

Face The Facts said:
Which small conference teams are we worried about not winning their tournament?

Belmont - Ohio Valley
Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun?

I know RPI isn't used anymore but by that traditional measure, Lipscomb would have zero chance (RPI of 74)
Belmont at 40-42 would be unlikely at large.

But with this newfangled NET, maybe.
Click to expand...

Wofford. Buffalo. VCU. Nevada.
Gonzaga to a lesser extent.

Power 6 conferences aren't immune to it either. Could easily see a bid-stealer in the Pac 12 or Big East.

None of it really has anything to do with NET. Belmont would be under consideration with a loss in the conf tourney final either way. Lipscomb won't get in without winning their tourney -- committee looks at the whole resume.
 

cjbfbp said:
Every year there are teams from mid-major conferences that people like you say "don't play anybody and don't deserve an at-large bid" who go on to beat power conference teams. Here's just last year's list of mid-majors beating power conference teams:

#11 seed St. Bonaventure beat #11 seed UCLA
#16 UMBC beat #1 Virginia
#13 Buffalo beat #4 Arizona State (with the #1 draft pick)
#11 Loyola-Chicago beat #6 Miami Florida
#7 Nevada beat #10 Texas
#13 Marshall also beat #4 Wichita but Wichita isn't a power 6 team
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Small conferences can win games and upsets happen, but not frequently enough to take more bids away from major conferences.
 

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