Field of 68 Projection (through Feb. 15)

[SelectionSunday]

We have three newcomers to the field since the beginning of the week. Gophers opponent Texas-Arlington replaces Arkansas State as the Sun Belt leader, Colorado State replaces Boise State as the Mountain West leader, and Georgetown replaces Wake Forest as one of the "last 4 in". An * denotes conference leader or, in the event of a tie, best RPI.

FIELD OF 68 (through Feb. 15) – RPI rank in parentheses
America East (1): Vermont (53)

American (2): *SMU (21), Cincinnati (16)

ACC (8): *North Carolina (8), Louisville (5), Florida State (11), Duke (12), Virginia (15), Notre Dame (24), Virginia Tech (34), Miami (50)

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast (96)

Atlantic 10 (2): *VCU (27), Dayton (29)

Big East (7): *Villanova (2), Butler (13), Xavier (14), Creighton (17), Seton Hall (40), Providence (57), Georgetown (61)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (177)

Big South (1): North Carolina-Asheville (73)

B1G (7): *Wisconsin (25), Maryland (18), Purdue (19), Minnesota (23), Northwestern (39), Michigan State (42), Michigan (58)

Big XII (7): *Kansas (3), Baylor (1), Oklahoma State (28), West Virginia (30), Iowa State (47), TCU (49), Kansas State (55)

Big West (1): UC Davis (197)

Colonial (1): North Carolina-Wilmington (44)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (37)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (70)

Ivy (1): Princeton (64)

Metro Atlantic (1): Monmouth (48)

MAC (1): Akron (35)

MEAC (1): NCCU (194)

Missouri Valley (2): *Illinois State (31), Wichita State (43)

Mountain West (1): Colorado State (106)

Northeast (1): Mount Saint Mary’s (167)

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (63)

Pac 12 (5): *Arizona (6), Oregon (7), UCLA (22), Cal (32), USC (33)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (93)

SEC (4): *Florida (9), Kentucky (10), South Carolina (26), Arkansas (36)

Southern (1): Furman (92)

Southland (1): New Orleans (170)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (123)

Summit (1): North Dakota State (99)

Sun Belt (1): Texas-Arlington (41)

West Coast (2): *Gonzaga (4), Saint Mary’s (20)

WAC (1): Bakersfield (95)


Last 4 In: Kansas State (55), Providence (57), Michigan (58), Georgetown (61)

First 4 Out: Wake Forest (38), Georgia (52), Houston (56), Syracuse (79)

Others Considered (8): Nevada (45), Tennessee (46), Clemson (51), Ohio State (65), Ole Miss (66), Georgia Tech (78), Utah (80), Marquette (81)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (16), Saint Mary’s (20), Dayton (29), Wichita State (43)

New to the Field (3): Colorado State, Georgetown, Texas-Arlington

Gophers vs. the Projected Field (5-5): beat Texas-Arlington, beat Mount Saint Mary’s, beat Arkansas, lost to Florida State, lost to Michigan State, beat Purdue, beat Northwestern, lost to Michigan State, lost to Wisconsin, lost to Maryland

 

[37score]

We have three newcomers to the field since the beginning of the week. Gophers opponent Texas-Arlington replaces Arkansas State as the Sun Belt leader, Colorado State replaces Boise State as the Mountain West leader, and Georgetown replaces Wake Forest as one of the "last 4 in". An * denotes conference leader or, in the event of a tie, best RPI.

FIELD OF 68 (through Feb. 15) – RPI rank in parentheses
America East (1): Vermont (53)

American (2): *SMU (21), Cincinnati (16)

ACC (8): *North Carolina (8), Louisville (5), Florida State (11), Duke (12), Virginia (15), Notre Dame (24), Virginia Tech (34), Miami (50)

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast (96)

Atlantic 10 (2): *VCU (27), Dayton (29)

Big East (7): *Villanova (2), Butler (13), Xavier (14), Creighton (17), Seton Hall (40), Providence (57), Georgetown (61)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (177)

Big South (1): North Carolina-Asheville (73)

B1G (7): *Wisconsin (25), Maryland (18), Purdue (19), Minnesota (23), Northwestern (39), Michigan State (42), Michigan (58)

Big XII (7): *Kansas (3), Baylor (1), Oklahoma State (28), West Virginia (30), Iowa State (47), TCU (49), Kansas State (55)

Big West (1): UC Davis (197)

Colonial (1): North Carolina-Wilmington (44)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (37)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (70)

Ivy (1): Princeton (64)

Metro Atlantic (1): Monmouth (48)

MAC (1): Akron (35)

MEAC (1): NCCU (194)

Missouri Valley (2): *Illinois State (31), Wichita State (43)

Mountain West (1): Colorado State (106)

Northeast (1): Mount Saint Mary’s (167)

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (63)

Pac 12 (5): *Arizona (6), Oregon (7), UCLA (22), Cal (32), USC (33)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (93)

SEC (4): *Florida (9), Kentucky (10), South Carolina (26), Arkansas (36)

Southern (1): Furman (92)

Southland (1): New Orleans (170)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (123)

Summit (1): North Dakota State (99)

Sun Belt (1): Texas-Arlington (41)

West Coast (2): *Gonzaga (4), Saint Mary’s (20)

WAC (1): Bakersfield (95)


Last 4 In: Kansas State (55), Providence (57), Michigan (58), Georgetown (61)

First 4 Out: Wake Forest (38), Georgia (52), Houston (56), Syracuse (79)

Others Considered (8): Nevada (45), Tennessee (46), Clemson (51), Ohio State (65), Ole Miss (66), Georgia Tech (78), Utah (80), Marquette (81)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (16), Saint Mary’s (20), Dayton (29), Wichita State (43)

New to the Field (3): Colorado State, Georgetown, Texas-Arlington

Gophers vs. the Projected Field (5-5): beat Texas-Arlington, beat Mount Saint Mary’s, beat Arkansas, lost to Florida State, lost to Michigan State, beat Purdue, beat Northwestern, lost to Michigan State, lost to Wisconsin, lost to Maryland

What do you like about Georgetown / Michigan over Wake Forest?

 

[upnorthkid]

in regards to seeding, what lines do you see the BT teams ending up on and how many do the Gophers pass relative to our final conference seed?

 

[KillmeNow]

A week ago, I only had 5 from the Big East getting in, and was wondering if it wouldn't be more like 3 or 4?? And kind of think your 7 is too many, but at the same time, the field is looking so weak out there, I can't think of who else would get in over those BE teams???

 

[SM_25]

What do you like about Georgetown / Michigan over Wake Forest?

Michigan is a talented team. They were a pretty decent team last year that returned almost everyone. Not to mention the rise of DJ Wilson. If they are on shooting they can be a very dangerous team. Walton, Wagner, Robinson, Rakmon, Irvin can light it up at any moment. Sundays game is going to be a good one.

 

[SelectionSunday]

What do you like about Georgetown / Michigan over Wake Forest?

Wake Forest it's hard for me to look past the 1-8 record vs. the RPI top 50. Has only 2 wins vs. teams projected into the field (Miami, Bucknell). 5-11 vs. the RPI top 100.

Georgetown has wins over Oregon, Syracuse, Creighton, Butler, among others.

Michigan is 9-8 vs. the top 100. Quality non-conference win over SMU, decent one over Marquette.

That's a sampling.

 

[SelectionSunday]

A week ago, I only had 5 from the Big East getting in, and was wondering if it wouldn't be more like 3 or 4?? And kind of think your 7 is too many, but at the same time, the field is looking so weak out there, I can't think of who else would get in over those BE teams???

Will be surprised if Big East ends up with 7. Probably end up 5 or 6.

 

[Holy Man]

Selection any chance the loser of Arlington and Arkansas State gets an at large?
Also looks fewest mid majors bids in years. Any data on that?

 

[SelectionSunday]

I'd give UT Arlington a chance. Certainly better resume than Wichita State. Arkansas State, no chance.

 

[Gopher07]

Michigan bolsters their resume with a win over Wisconsin tonight


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[SelectionSunday]

in regards to seeding, what lines do you see the BT teams ending up on and how many do the Gophers pass relative to our final conference seed?

Just a guess:

Maryland a 4.
Michigan a 7.
Michigan State a 8-9.
Minnesota a 7.
Northwestern a 10.
Purdue a 3.
Wisconsin a 5.

 

[37score]

Just a guess:

Maryland a 4.
Michigan a 7.
Michigan State a 8-9.
Minnesota a 7.
Northwestern a 10.
Purdue a 3.
Wisconsin a 5.

I actually think it's more like:

Purdue - 4
Maryland - 5
Wisconsin - 5
Minnesota - 6-7
Northwestern - 10
Michigan St - 11
Michigan - 11

 

[SelectionSunday]

Also looks fewest mid majors bids in years. Any data on that?

Definitely not a good year for mid-majors. There just aren't many out there worthy of considering for an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament. There are going to be a lot of at-larges with 11-13 losses, maybe even an 18-14 or two.

As far as non-Power 6 at-large potential, as of today I'd categorize like this:

Locks (win conference or not): Cincinnati, Dayton, Saint Mary's, SMU

Close to Lock: VCU

25 to 50% Chance for At-Large: Illinois State, Middle Tennessee (has strongest case), Texas-Arlington, Wichita State

Consider, But Extreme Longshot: Akron, Nevada, UNC-Wilmington

As far as at-large bids to non-Power 6 conferences (I still consider Big East a power league until proven otherwise)? In the last 3 seasons:

2013-14: 10
2014-15: 7
2015-16: 6

Will be interesting to see if the downward trend continues.

 

[37score]

Definitely not a good year for mid-majors. There just aren't many out there that I'll consider for an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament. There are going to be a lot of at-larges with 11-13 losses, maybe even an 18-14 or two.

As far as non-Power 6 at-large potential, as of today I'd categorize like this:

Locks (win conference or not): Cincinnati, Dayton, Saint Mary's, SMU

Close to Lock: VCU

Decent to Good Chance for At-Large: Illinois State, Middle Tennessee (has strongest case), Texas-Arlington, Wichita State

Consider, But Extreme Longshot: Akron, Nevada, UNC-Wilmington

Do any of these teams have a coach with MN ties whom we could cheer for during Championship week?

 

[SelectionSunday]

Do any of these teams have a coach with MN ties whom we could cheer for during Championship week?

I'm assuming you're referring to Musselman.

Not on this list, but I'm pulling for current SoCon leader Furman, coached by former U of M manager/grad/assistant Niko Medved.

 

[Holy Man]

Thanks for the info, Selection. Would love to see Niko in the tournament, as well.

 

[gregbrady]

Definitely not a good year for mid-majors. There just aren't many out there worthy of considering for an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament. There are going to be a lot of at-larges with 11-13 losses, maybe even an 18-14 or two.

As far as non-Power 6 at-large potential, as of today I'd categorize like this:

Locks (win conference or not): Cincinnati, Dayton, Saint Mary's, SMU

Close to Lock: VCU

25 to 50% Chance for At-Large: Illinois State, Middle Tennessee (has strongest case), Texas-Arlington, Wichita State

Consider, But Extreme Longshot: Akron, Nevada, UNC-Wilmington

As far as at-large bids to non-Power 6 conferences (I still consider Big East a power league until proven otherwise)? In the last 3 seasons:

2013-14: 10
2014-15: 7
2015-16: 6

Will be interesting to see if the downward trend continues.

Seems crazy that some coaches are for expanding the field.


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[SelectionSunday]

Seems crazy that some coaches are for expanding the field.


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Self preservation. More teams that make an NCAA Tournament, the less number of coaches that get fired. It's fine the way it is (going back to 64 would be perfect), but I suspect we'll be at at least 96 within the next 5-6 years.

 

[Holy Man]

Self preservation. More teams that make an NCAA Tournament, the less number of coaches that get fired. It's fine the way it is (going back to 64 would be perfect), but I suspect we'll be at at least 96 within the next 5-6 years.

Which will render moot basically all discussion we are having here. Sad day if that happens. The system seems flawed even now when we talk about teams that are 3-9 in conference (someone in the ACC) still being on the bubble. The price of the too many team conferences.

 

[e.bigelow]

Self preservation. More teams that make an NCAA Tournament, the less number of coaches that get fired. It's fine the way it is (going back to 64 would be perfect), but I suspect we'll be at at least 96 within the next 5-6 years.

Good lord. I don't follow the things people say about increasing the tourney very closely, but 96 seems ridiculous.

 

[ruppertflywheel]

I certainly hope not. I don't like the fact that the Power 5 Conferences with under 20 wins and under .500 in Conference play are considered. This is absolutely BS.....