Field of 68 Projection: Michigan Enters Field As Last Team In

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SelectionSunday

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TINLEY PARK, IL -- We’re now only two weeks from Selection Sunday. Here’s how I see the Field of 68 looking as Championship Week gets underway Monday in the Northeast Conference.

We have 5 new teams in the field this week: Bryant; Michigan (at-large); Northern Iowa; SMU (at-large); and Texas Southern. They replace Belmont (at-large), Dayton (at-large), Rutgers (at-large), Southern, and Wagner.

*Automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are noted with an *. Auto qualifiers own the best conference record or are the highest remaining seed in their conference tournament.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through Feb. 27)
America East (1): Vermont (63)

American (2): *Houston (3), SMU (47)

ACC (5): *Duke (9), North Carolina (40), Wake Forest (43), Notre Dame (46), Miami (62)

ASUN (1): Jacksonville State (138)

Atlantic 10 (1): Davidson (45)

Big East (7): Villanova (7), UConn (17), *Providence (25), Seton Hall (32), Marquette (34), Xavier (36), Creighton (67)

Big Sky (1): Montana State (134)

Big South (1): Longwood (142)

Big Ten (7): Purdue (12), Illinois (14), Iowa (18), Ohio State (20), *Wisconsin (21), Michigan State (33), Michigan (37)

Big XII (6): Baylor (5), *Kansas (6), Texas Tech (10), Texas (15), Iowa State (35), TCU (49)

Big West (1): Long Beach (152)

Colonial (1): UNC-Wilmington (188)

Conference USA (1): North Texas (38)

Horizon (1): Cleveland (175)

Ivy (1): Princeton (108)

MAAC (1): Iona (76)

MAC (1): Toledo (78)

MEAC (1): Norfolk (183)

Missouri Valley (2): Loyola (31), *Northern Iowa (97)

Mountain West (4): Colorado State (27), *Boise (29), San Diego State (30), Wyoming (39)

NEC (1): Bryant (218)

OVC (1): Murray (24)

Pac 12 (3): *Arizona (2), UCLA (13), USC (26)

Patriot (1): Colgate (137)

SEC (6): Kentucky (4), Tennessee (8), *Auburn (11), LSU (16), Alabama (22), Arkansas (23)

SoCon (1): Chattanooga (70)

Southland (1): New Orleans (254)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (203)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (71)

Sun Belt (1): Texas State (118)

WCC (4): *Gonzaga (1), Saint Mary’s (19), San Francisco (28), BYU (50)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (86)
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Last 4 In: BYU, Xavier, San Diego State, Michigan (last team in)

First 4 Out: Memphis (42; first team out), Oregon (58), Florida (51), VCU (53)

8 to Watch: Virginia Tech (41), Indiana (44), Oklahoma (48), UAB (54), Dayton (55), Belmont (60), Saint Bonaventure (79), Rutgers (83)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (8): BYU, Colorado State, Loyola-Chicago, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, San Francisco, SMU, Wyoming
 


Never say never, but I gotta' say no. Best win is Wazzu. Need a couple quality wins better than that to supplement that perfect 18-0 Summit League record.

Hoping that scenario doesn't happen.
 


Man, more teams from the WCC than from the Pac-12. I know I'm old because I'm old enough to remember when the P12 was a good basketball conference.
 


justthefacts said:
Man, more teams from the WCC than from the Pac-12. I know I'm old because I'm old enough to remember when the P12 was a good basketball conference.
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Colorado and Oregon are on the edge, and while teams like Utah and Oregon State have really fallen (at least this year), it's super strong at the top and just one year ago Oregon State had a nice finish. Any one of the 3 (AZ, USC, UCLA) can make a big run come tourney time. WCC has really improved, most notably USF. They have more length/size than most B1G teams.
 

Michigan has to be about one of your your last teams in at the moment. Don't think it's going to end well for them.
Edit: Apologies, failed to see the title .
 
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justthefacts said:
Man, more teams from the WCC than from the Pac-12. I know I'm old because I'm old enough to remember when the P12 was a good basketball conference.
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I'm surprised that San Fran is sitting at a 10 seed on CBS right now. ESPN has them in the last 4 in but I would be surprised if they end up making it in. They will most likely get BYU their first game and then play Gonzaga if they win. I just dont get how you put a WCC team who has gone 23-9, 10-6 in conference over a team like Indiana or Michigan if they take down BYU and lose to Zaga.
 

I still think Rutgers is going to get in. Those February wins will out due a bad loss in November, you can count on one finger the teams that have the quad one wins they do and they more likely than not will have a road win over the Big Ten Regular season champs and since the NET became the primary focus teams have been far more rewarded for good wins than punished for bad losses
 



Thanks SS. I know you do this because you have a passion for it and not for our benefit, but we all appreciate your efforts and enjoy your analysis. I smile every time you outdo the media pundits!
 

What does Rutgers need to do to get in? I think their net is high, however they have some mighty big wins.
 

justthefacts said:
Man, more teams from the WCC than from the Pac-12. I know I'm old because I'm old enough to remember when the P12 was a good basketball conference.
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Didn't the Pac-12 have four teams in the Sweet Sixteen and have three of them make it to the Elite Eight last year?
 

BarnBurner said:
What does Rutgers need to do to get in? I think their net is high, however they have some mighty big wins.
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My general feeling on Rutgers is they're gonna' get in if they win their last 2 of regular season, @ Indiana and Penn State at the RAC. Short of that, let's say they split those 2, I think they'd need to win a couple in Indianapolis, one of which for sure likely would be a high-end (Quad 1 or 2) opponent. Rutgers could be one of the toughest calls for the committee. I tend to lean toward teams (like Rutgers) with high-end wins, but those bad losses leave a mark, as well.
 



Piggy-backing on BB"s question, I'm going to follow up on this thread later today with more specifics on where I see bubble teams relative to how close they are to making the field.
 

SelectionSunday said:
My general feeling on Rutgers is they're gonna' get in if they win their last 2 of regular season, @ Indiana and Penn State at the RAC. Short of that, let's say they split those 2, I think they'd need to win a couple in Indianapolis, one of which for sure likely would be a high-end (Quad 1 or 2) opponent. Rutgers could be one of the toughest calls for the committee. I tend to lean toward teams (like Rutgers) with high-end wins, but those bad losses leave a mark, as well.
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am I remembering correct that those losses for Rutgers were early on when they had injury issues?
 

JayBobDobbins said:
am I remembering correct that those losses for Rutgers were early on when they had injury issues?
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Not sure about injuries (maybe Baker was out?), but they were a couple terrible losses, Lafayette and UMass. It's also possible the committee will remember RU losing to the Gophers when they were down 3 starters.
 

Fleckoff said:
I still think Rutgers is going to get in. Those February wins will out due a bad loss in November, you can count on one finger the teams that have the quad one wins they do and they more likely than not will have a road win over the Big Ten Regular season champs and since the NET became the primary focus teams have been far more rewarded for good wins than punished for bad losses
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This is simply false. All games are taken into account equally. No matter the time of the year they are played.

The only "exception" that can be given is if certain losses happened while missing key players.

But winning games in February have absolutely no weight over losses in November. The numbers are all the same.
 

Here's a breakdown of how I'm viewing the Field of 68 and (potential) bubble teams as we enter the last week of the regular season/start of conference tournaments. The win totals "needed" are based only on remaining regular season games (most teams have 2 or 3), regardless of how they do in their conference tournament. Please note, when categorizing teams I've taken into consideration the strength (or lack thereof) of their remaining opponents.

LOCKED & LOADED (28) -- These teams are a lock for the tourney field even if they lose all their remaining games (including opening conference tournament game):
1 Alabama
2 Arizona
3 Arkansas
4 Auburn
5 Baylor
6 Colorado State
7 Duke
8 Gonzaga
9 Houston
10 Illinois
11 Kansas
12 Kentucky
13 LSU
14 Marquette
15 Michigan State
16 Murray
17 Ohio State
18 Providence
19 Purdue
20 Saint Mary's
21 Tennessee
22 Texas
23 Texas Tech
24 UCLA
25 UConn
26 USC
27 Villanova
28 Wisconsin

1 MORE REGULAR SEASON WIN LOCKS UP A BID (6) -- all currently in Field of 68 projection
1 Boise
2 Iowa
3 Iowa State
4 Notre Dame
5 San Francisco
6 Seton Hall

2 MORE REGULAR SEASON WINS LOCKS UP A BID (10)
1 Creighton (in Field of 68)
2 Davidson (in Field of 68)
3 Indiana (out)
4 Memphis (first team out)
5 Miami-Florida (in Field of 68)
6 Michigan (in Field of 68 as last team in)
7 North Carolina (in Field of 68)
8 Rutgers (out)
9 TCU (in Field of 68)
10 Wyoming (in Field of 68)

TRUEST OF THE TRUE BUBBLERS (can go either way) (10)
1 BYU (in Field of 68 among last 4 in)
2 Dayton (out)
3 Florida (among first 4 out)
4 Loyola-Chicago (in Field of 68)
5 Oregon (among first 4 out)
6 San Diego State (in Field of 68 among last 4 in)
7 SMU (in Field of 68)
8 VCU (among first 4 out)
9 Wake Forest (in Field of 68)
10 Xavier (in Field of 68 among last 4 in)

LONGSHOTS/WIN ALL REMAINING GAMES + DO DAMAGE IN CONFERENCE TOURNEY (6)
1 Kansas State
2 Oklahoma
3 Saint Bonaventure
4 UAB
5 Virginia
6 Virginia Tech
 
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Florida sure isn’t performing. White in trouble?
 


howeda7 said:
Does South Dakota State get an at large if they lose in the Summit Tournament?
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Only have a chance if they lose the championship game, and it would probably have to be against Oral Roberts. But probably not, too many years have I hoped the summit would be ranked one or two seeds higher every selection Sunday and they never are. The conference seems to be getting better, few teams at the bottom are pretty bad though.
 

South Dakota St is the one team I really don't want to see as Wisconisn's opponent. Hopefully we'll be seeded high enough to avoid them.
 

Badgerman said:
South Dakota St is the one team I really don't want to see as Wisconisn's opponent. Hopefully we'll be seeded high enough to avoid them.
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Would be hard to see them match up, Jacks could be a 13th seed, Wisco too good for 4th seed
 


MUgopher32 said:
This is simply false. All games are taken into account equally. No matter the time of the year they are played.

The only "exception" that can be given is if certain losses happened while missing key players.

But winning games in February have absolutely no weight over losses in November. The numbers are all the same.
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If so, there are two opposing philosophies being applied to the field. If early season bad losses hurt a team more than late season good wins help a team, then the selection committee is ignoring that teams can improve as the season goes along. On the other hand, recency certainly is being applied to team rankings, as beating a ranked team early gets constantly readjusted to the point where (if that opponent drops greatly) that win may not help much by the end of the year. I certainly value teams playing well at the end of the year more than those limping into the finish line.
 


goldenboy said:
If so, there are two opposing philosophies being applied to the field. If early season bad losses hurt a team more than late season good wins help a team, then the selection committee is ignoring that teams can improve as the season goes along. On the other hand, recency certainly is being applied to team rankings, as beating a ranked team early gets constantly readjusted to the point where (if that opponent drops greatly) that win may not help much by the end of the year. I certainly value teams playing well at the end of the year more than those limping into the finish line.
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HUH?

bad losses in november dont hurt more than good losses late help. They are weighted exactly the same.

Its all about the metrics and the strength of the teams you played over the course of the year. The NET is constantly updating.

So, lets say today March 2nd is the date of a teams resume. If that team had a Q4 loss in November, its Q4 because right now on March 2nd that is where that team falls. If same team beat a 20 NET team at home last week. That is a Q1 win because that is where that team falls right now. So when looking at their resume they have 1 great win and 1 awful loss.

They are equal. The committee cant just flat out ignore that a team had abysmal losses because it was Novemeber. They have stated as much as well.

The only thing the committe does is take injuries into account for the losing team.

For example: If Andre Curbelo was proven to be an impact enough player that Illinois was far better with him in on the court than withouth. Games they lost with Curbelo may be forgiven. While on the flip side, the team that beat them without Curbelo will never be punished. It would still look like a Q1 win(if thats where they fall).
 

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