Field of 68 Projection (March 10, 2014)

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SelectionSunday

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This is my final projection until the wee hours of Sunday morning. Enjoy Championship Week.

RPI is noted in parentheses. Teams in ALL CAPS BOLD have earned an automatic bid.

FIELD OF 68
America East (1): Stony Brook (152)

American (5): Cincinnati (15), Louisville (22), UConn (28), Memphis (29), SMU (45)

ACC (4): Duke (5), Syracuse (10), Virginia (12), North Carolina (21)

Atlantic Sun (1): MERCER (80)

Atlantic 10 (6): VCU (13), UMass (17), Saint Louis (18), George Washington (30), Dayton (39), Saint Joseph's (42)

Big East (3): Villanova (4), Creighton (7), Xavier (48)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (169)

Big South (1): COASTAL CAROLINA (197)

Big Ten (7): Wisconsin (6), Michigan (9), Ohio State (23), Michigan State (24), Nebraska (41), Iowa (49), Gophers (51)

Big XII (7): Kansas (3), Iowa State (11), Oklahoma (20), Texas (32), Baylor (34), Oklahoma State (40), Kansas State (47)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (106)

Colonial (1): Delaware (76)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (70)

Horizon (1): Wright State (165)

Ivy (1): HARVARD (50)

MAAC (1): Iona (58)

MAC (1): Western Michigan (87)

MEAC (1): North Carolina Central (109)

Missouri Valley (1): WICHITA STATE (5)

Mountain West (2): San Diego State (14), New Mexico (16)

Northeast (1): Robert Morris (117)

Ohio Valley (1): EASTERN KENTUCKY (100)

Pac 12 (6): Arizona (1), Oregon (25), UCLA (27), Colorado (31), Arizona State (37), Stanford (43)

Patriot (1): Boston U (82)

SEC (4): Florida (2), Kentucky (19), Tennessee (44), Arkansas (62)

Southern (1): Wofford (161)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (67)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (260)

Summit (1): North Dakota State (38)

Sun Belt (1): Georgia State (75)

West Coast (2): Gonzaga (26), BYU (33)

WAC (1): Utah Valley (132)
_________________________________________

Last 4 In: Saint Joseph's (42), SMU (45), Gophers (51), Arkansas (62)

First 4 Out: Pitt (46), Providence (54), Cal (55), Green Bay (63)

Still Under Consideration (7): Southern Miss (35), Missouri (52), Georgetown (53), Saint John's (57), Florida State (59), NC State (66), Illinois (68)
 


Wow looks good to me!
 

So do both St. Joe's and Xavier make it? EG's analysis suggested otherwise (not sure if they play each other in first game of Big East or not). I'm with PitinoFan in not understanding how Arkansas can still be in, but I'll take your word for it.

I'll look for at least two wins in Indy for us to solidify our bid, and hope for the best if we come up short of that.
 

Did our RPI drop after beating Penn State? Last time I looked earlier in the week, we were in the mid-40's.

I'm starting to hate RPI. Can be very misleading in that it seems to take no account of WHEN you played somebody. I can only assume our RPI is dropping partly because our prior opponents are not winning games right now. Richmond is nosediving without Cedric Lindsay, but they were a top-40ish team most of the year and we should be getting credit for a good road win for that game.
 


Do these RPI's include Sunday's games? If so, surprised the Gophs are out of the 40's, even with Sunday's win. They do indeed have some work to do in Indianapolis.

My, how Iowa has fallen. At one point I was seeing them as a Final Four hopeful, and now look at them. (FWIW, Amelia wrote over the weekend that she STILL sees Iowa as the most likely Big Ten team to reach the Final Four.)
 

Don't like Pitt or SMU

PitinoFan said:
I don't understand how Arkansas is still in.....
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I completely understand what you're sayin'. Razorbacks are one of those teams with a higher RPI that I'm valuing more than quite a few teams with a better RPI. Getting routed by Alabama was an eye-opener, for sure, but even with that stinker the Hogs have finished strong.

Pitt and SMU are two teams getting plenty of bracket love where I'm not seein' it. Even though I have one of 'em in (SMU) and the other one (Pitt) barely on the outside looking in, can't understand the love they're getting from the bracketologists.
 


Holy Man said:
So do both St. Joe's and Xavier make it? . ... not sure if they play each other in first game of Big East or not.
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Yes, I think both can make it. If Saint Joe's ends up playing Dayton in the A-10 quarterfinals, that could be a de facto play-in game. I like Dayton's resume much better than Saint Joe's, but Saint Joe's swept the season series. If they play a 3rd time, odds are I'd lock in the winner of that game, with the other one still having a chance for a bid.

Xavier drew Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals. I think X is the Big East's best chance for a 3rd bid after 'Nova and Creighton, but they could be in some trouble if they lose to Marquette.
 



SelectionSunday said:
I completely understand what you're sayin'. Razorbacks are one of those teams with a higher RPI that I'm valuing more than quite a few teams with a better RPI. Getting routed by Alabama was an eye-opener, for sure, but even with that stinker the Hogs have finished strong.

Pitt and SMU are two teams getting plenty of bracket love where I'm not seein' it. Even though I have one of 'em in (SMU) and the other one (Pitt) barely on the outside looking in, can't understand the love they're getting from the bracketologists.
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I am confused by the love that Tennessee is getting. I watched some of their blowout win over another bubble team Missouri and was amazed the announcers were basically saying that that locked the Vols in. I just don't see how. I think the TN resume is CLEARLY worse than our's. They have four hideous losses and only one truly good win (over Virginia before they got good). Their next best win is Xavier. The Gophers have a better win than Tennessee's best win and more Top 50 wins than Tennessee. And, fewer bad losses, all while playing in a clearly superior conference and a stronger SOS. I guess Tennessee has more 50-100 wins, but that isn't a great accomplishment in the crappy SEC.

I mean you tell me:

TENNESSEE (19-11):
RPI: 44
SOS: 25
RECORD VS T50: 2-4
WINS VS T100: 7
BEST WINS: #12, #47
BAD LOSSES (T100+): #101, #110, #141 (twice)

MINNESOTA (18-12):
RPI: 51
SOS: 7
RECORD VS T50: 3-8
WINS VS. T100: 6
BEST WINS: #9, #23, #49
BAD LOSSES (T100+): #134, #139
 


It would be fun to play Louisville in the NCAA tournament.
 

tjgopher said:
I am confused by the love that Tennessee is getting. I watched some of their blowout win over another bubble team Missouri and was amazed the announcers were basically saying that that locked the Vols in. I just don't see how. I think the TN resume is CLEARLY worse than our's. They have four hideous losses and only one truly good win (over Virginia before they got good). Their next best win is Xavier. The Gophers have a better win than Tennessee's best win and more Top 50 wins than Tennessee. And, fewer bad losses, all while playing in a clearly superior conference and a stronger SOS. I guess Tennessee has more 50-100 wins, but that isn't a great accomplishment in the crappy SEC.

I mean you tell me:

TENNESSEE (19-11):
RPI: 44
SOS: 25
RECORD VS T50: 2-4
WINS VS T100: 7
BEST WINS: #12, #47
BAD LOSSES (T100+): #101, #110, #141 (twice)

MINNESOTA (18-12):
RPI: 51
SOS: 7
RECORD VS T50: 3-8
WINS VS. T100: 6
BEST WINS: #9, #23, #49
BAD LOSSES (T100+): #134, #139
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Yep, Tennessee is another great example of too much bracket love.

In fairness, announcers doing a game involving a bubble team love to proclaim "They're a lock" after said team wins the game they're doing. These are the same guys who if you asked them to select the field (looking at you, Dukie V) would have 85 teams in the tournament because they're afraid to hurt anyone's feelings. Only the best analysts don't play up to their audience, but those guys are few & far between.
 





I'd feel better about this projection if CLemson and Colorado hadn't gift-wrapped games to Pitt and Cal this week-end. I fear Pitt especially is in.
 

howeda7 said:
I'd feel better about this projection if CLemson and Colorado hadn't gift-wrapped games to Pitt and Cal this week-end. I fear Pitt especially is in.
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Absolutely. What a choke-job by Clemson. If Pitt makes the tourney Jamie Dixon better make sure Brad Brownell is on his Christmas card list.
 



Iowa on the 8 line? Their resume is one big ten win better than ours and RPI nearly identical...
 

afurry91 said:
Iowa on the 8 line? Their resume is one big ten win better than ours and RPI nearly identical...
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And they still have votes in both polls. It's pathetic. I think they could go out and lose to NW and still be in.
 

Regarding SMU, they're ranked in both polls. Has a ranked team ever not made it in post-1985?
 

Unless some of these bubblers make solid runs in their conf tourneys, it's going to be tough for the bracketologists to do well choosing. Really tough to differentiate between some of these teams. I hope the committe falls in love with our SOS
 

afurry91 said:
Iowa on the 8 line? Their resume is one big ten win better than ours and RPI nearly identical...
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Iowa doesn't have any losses to RPI 100+ teams.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
 

howeda7 said:
Regarding SMU, they're ranked in both polls. Has a ranked team ever not made it in post-1985?
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I thought Georgetown was #20 one year and didn't get in. If true, that was somewhere in the mid-to-late 80's. Or maybe I dreamt that.
 


Just looking across the interwebs today - most have the Gophers out. Looks like we need a win or 2 in the BTT.
 

ChicagoGopher said:
Just looking across the interwebs today - most have the Gophers out. Looks like we need a win or 2 in the BTT.
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I honestly think beating PSU puts us in. May not be worth much, but we were 8-10 last year with pretty similar significant wins and bad losses, and we lost our first BTT game and still got in at 8-11. Maybe the bubble was weaker or our RPI was higher, but I think it would be hard to turn down a 20 win Big Ten team with a mid-40's RPI.
 

SS, are the Gophers your last team in?
 

mcal24 said:
I honestly think beating PSU puts us in. May not be worth much, but we were 8-10 last year with pretty similar significant wins and bad losses, and we lost our first BTT game and still got in at 8-11. Maybe the bubble was weaker or our RPI was higher, but I think it would be hard to turn down a 20 win Big Ten team with a mid-40's RPI.
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The thing is, it will take 2 wins to get the RPI to the low to mid 40s. Consider that their RPI actually dropped a point in the last 24 hours.

That conference record is an eyesore for a lot of folks.
 

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