Field of 68 Projection: Field Shrinks By 2 Thanks to Bid-Stealers Charlotte and Richmond

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SelectionSunday

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Our Field of 68 projection through Week #12 adds a pair of bid-stealers, Charlotte and Richmond. The 49ers (American) and Spiders (Atlantic 10) are surprise leaders of their respective conference. The Spiders joined the bid-stealing fray with a win over Dayton, ending the Flyers' 13-game winning streak.

In addition, this week instead of my weekly Big Ten and Summit League power rankings we’ll gander at what the pairings would look like if those conferences held their tournament today.

The automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or, in the event of a tie, the best NET ranking.

WEEK #12 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through Jan. 27)
America East (1): Vermont (107)

American (3): Charlotte (95), FAU (27), Memphis (59)

ACC (3): North Carolina (7), Duke (18), Clemson (28)

ASUN (1): Eastern Kentucky (206)

Atlantic 10 (2): Richmond (69), Dayton (16)

Big East (7): UConn (8), Creighton (12), Marquette (15), Saint John’s (36), Villanova (43), Providence (53), Seton Hall (75)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (114)

Big South (1): High Point (111)

Big Ten (6): Wisconsin (11), Purdue (2), Illinois (13), Michigan State (25), Northwestern (61), Nebraska (62)

Big XII (9): Texas Tech (26), Houston (1), BYU (5), Iowa State (10), Kansas (14), Baylor (17), TCU (29), Oklahoma (35), Texas (42)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (78)

Colonial (1): Drexel (104)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (84)

Horizon (1): Green Bay (196)

Ivy (1): Cornell (79)

MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (163)

MAC (1): Akron (93)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (195)

Missouri Valley (1): Indiana State (24)

Mountain West (5): Utah State (23), San Diego State (19), New Mexico (20), Colorado State (34), Boise State (56)

NEC (1): Central Connecticut (221)

OVC (1): Morehead State (103)

Pac 12 (2): Arizona (4), Utah (37)

Patriot (1): Colgate (155)

SEC (8): Alabama (6), Tennessee (3), Auburn (9), Kentucky (22), Mississippi State (38), Texas A&M (45), South Carolina (52), Ole Miss (57)

SoCon (1): Samford (85)

Southland (1): McNeese (64)

SWAC (1): Alabama State (261)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (157)

Sun Belt (1): Appalachian State (77)

WCC (1): Saint Mary’s (21)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (50)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Texas (42), Nebraska (62), Michigan State (25), Villanova (43)

First 4 Out: Virginia Tech (46), Wake Forest (47), Washington State (41), Nevada (51)

Dirty Dozen to Watch: Colorado (30), Gonzaga (31), Cincinnati (32), Florida (39), Xavier (40), Princeton (44), Virginia (48), Drake (49), Butler (54), Oregon (55), Miami-Florida (63), Kansas State (74)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (7): Dayton (16), San Diego State (19), New Mexico (20), FAU (27), Colorado State (34), Boise State (56), Memphis (59)

Current Bid-Stealers (2): Richmond (69), Charlotte (95)

Moving In (12): Colgate, Cornell, Green Bay, Indiana State, Norfolk State, Ole Miss, Quinnipiac, Richmond, Texas, TCU, UC-Irvine, Vermont

Dropping Out (12): Delaware State, Drake, Kansas State, Lafayette, Oakland, Oregon, Princeton, Saint Peter’s, UC-Davis, UMass-Lowell, Wake Forest, Xavier

IF THE SUMMIT LEAGUE TOURNAMENT WERE HELD TODAY
1st Round (March 8)
#8 North Dakota State (2-4) vs. #9 South Dakota (2-5), 7 p.m. (Midco Sports)

Quarterfinals (March 9)
#1 South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State/South Dakota winner, 6 p.m. (Midco Sports)
#2 North Dakota (4-3) vs. #7 Kansas City (3-4), 8:30 (Midco Sports)

Quarterfinals (March 10)
#4 St. Thomas (4-3) vs. #5 Oral Roberts (4-4), 6 p.m. (Midco Sports)
#3 Denver (4-3) vs. #6 Omaha (4-4), 8:30 p.m. (Midco Sports)

IF THE BIG TEN TOURNAMENT WERE HELD TODAY
Weakling Wednesday (March 13)
#12 Ohio State (3-6) vs. #13 Rutgers (2-5), 5:30 CT (Peacock)
#11 Penn State (3-6) vs. #14 Michigan (2-7), 8 p.m. (Peacock)

2nd Round (March 14)
#8 Indiana (4-5) vs. #9 Iowa (4-5), 11 a.m. (BTN)
#5 Maryland (5-5) vs. Ohio State/Rutgers winner, 1:30 p.m. (BTN)
#7 Michigan State (4-5) vs. #10 Minnesota (4-5), 5:30 p.m. (BTN)
#6 Nebraska (5-5) vs. Penn State/Michigan winner, 8 p.m. (BTN)

Quarterfinals (March 15)
#1 Wisconsin (8-1) vs. Indiana/Iowa winner, 11 a.m. (BTN)
#4 Illinois (6-3) vs. Maryland/Ohio State/Rutgers winner, 1:30 (BTN)
#2 Purdue (7-2) vs. Michigan State/Minnesota winner, 5:30 (BTN)
#3 Northwestern (6-3) vs. Nebraska/Penn State/Michigan winner, 8 p.m. (BTN)

STATE OF MINNESOTA IN THE RANKINGS
NET: Minnesota #92, St. Thomas #153
KenPom: Minnesota #84, St. Thomas #142
Haslametrics: Minnesota #73, St. Thomas #126
 


Blizzard said:
SS, sorry if this has been covered before. What is the case for Michigan State being anywhere near the tournament?
Click to expand...
Good question. As always, a big part of it is who you’re sharing the bubble with. All bubble teams have warts on their resume, so you have to sift through records vs. all 4 quads, road records, overall SOS, non-conference SOS, strength of record, etc.

IMO what’s hurting them the most is their poor road record (1-4) and the fact they’ve lost most of their games vs. the top shelf opponents, Baylor being the exception.

What’s helping them is their non-conference SOS, which does include 3 pretty good wins (also Butler & Indiana State) & the fact they have no bad losses (Quads 3 & 4).

Spartans don’t have much margin for error. Need to continue to beat the teams they’re supposed to, mixed in with a win or two over teams that likely will make the NCAA (Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Good question. As always, a big part of it is who you’re sharing the bubble with. All bubble teams have warts on their resume, so you have to sift through records vs. all 4 quads, road records, overall SOS, non-conference SOS, strength of record, etc.

IMO what’s hurting them the most is their poor road record (1-4) and the fact they’ve lost most of their games vs. the top shelf opponents, Baylor being the exception.

What’s helping them is their non-conference SOS, which does include 3 pretty good wins (also Butler & Indiana State) & the fact they have no bad losses (Quads 3 & 4).

Spartans don’t have much margin for error. Need to continue to beat the teams they’re supposed to, mixed in with a win or two over teams that likely will make the NCAA (Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue).
Click to expand...

Thanks. That makes good sense.
 

If the Big Ten gets only 6 teams in. Gophers need to finish 7th or 8th to get an Automatic bid to the NIT.
 


The top 2 teams in the NET that don’t make the NCAA from ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 12 & SEC will receive automatic NIT bid and guaranteed to host 1st round game.

So right now if we assumed Illinois, MSU, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue & Wisconsin received NCAA bids, the Big Ten’s NIT auto qualifiers would be Iowa & OSU.

www.ncaa.org

NIT announces changes to tournament selection format - NCAA.org

The NIT Board of Managers has announced changes for the 2024 National Invitation Tournament that impact how teams qualify.
www.ncaa.org www.ncaa.org
 

SelectionSunday said:
The top 2 teams in the NET that don’t make the NCAA from ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 12 & SEC will receive automatic NIT bid and guaranteed to host 1st round game.

So right now if we assumed Illinois, MSU, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue & Wisconsin received NCAA bids, the Big Ten’s NIT auto qualifiers would be Iowa & OSU.

www.ncaa.org

NIT announces changes to tournament selection format - NCAA.org

The NIT Board of Managers has announced changes for the 2024 National Invitation Tournament that impact how teams qualify.
www.ncaa.org www.ncaa.org
Click to expand...

Gonna be tough with our NET sitting in the 90's right now. Also, MD is ahead of us as well. I think OSU can be caught given they seem to be in a tailspin.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Our Field of 68 projection through Week #12 adds a pair of bid-stealers, Charlotte and Richmond. The 49ers (American) and Spiders (Atlantic 10) are surprise leaders of their respective conference. The Spiders joined the bid-stealing fray with a win over Dayton, ending the Flyers' 13-game winning streak.

In addition, this week instead of my weekly Big Ten and Summit League power rankings we’ll gander at what the pairings would look like if those conferences held their tournament today.

The automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or, in the event of a tie, the best NET ranking.

WEEK #12 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through Jan. 27)
America East (1): Vermont (107)

American (3): Charlotte (95), FAU (27), Memphis (59)

ACC (3): North Carolina (7), Duke (18), Clemson (28)

ASUN (1): Eastern Kentucky (206)

Atlantic 10 (2): Richmond (69), Dayton (16)

Big East (7): UConn (8), Creighton (12), Marquette (15), Saint John’s (36), Villanova (43), Providence (53), Seton Hall (75)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (114)

Big South (1): High Point (111)

Big Ten (6): Wisconsin (11), Purdue (2), Illinois (13), Michigan State (25), Northwestern (61), Nebraska (62)

Big XII (9): Texas Tech (26), Houston (1), BYU (5), Iowa State (10), Kansas (14), Baylor (17), TCU (29), Oklahoma (35), Texas (42)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (78)

Colonial (1): Drexel (104)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (84)

Horizon (1): Green Bay (196)

Ivy (1): Cornell (79)

MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (163)

MAC (1): Akron (93)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (195)

Missouri Valley (1): Indiana State (24)

Mountain West (5): Utah State (23), San Diego State (19), New Mexico (20), Colorado State (34), Boise State (56)

NEC (1): Central Connecticut (221)

OVC (1): Morehead State (103)

Pac 12 (2): Arizona (4), Utah (37)

Patriot (1): Colgate (155)

SEC (8): Alabama (6), Tennessee (3), Auburn (9), Kentucky (22), Mississippi State (38), Texas A&M (45), South Carolina (52), Ole Miss (57)

SoCon (1): Samford (85)

Southland (1): McNeese (64)

SWAC (1): Alabama State (261)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (157)

Sun Belt (1): Appalachian State (77)

WCC (1): Saint Mary’s (21)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (50)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Texas (42), Nebraska (62), Michigan State (25), Villanova (43)

First 4 Out: Virginia Tech (46), Wake Forest (47), Washington State (41), Nevada (51)

Dirty Dozen to Watch: Colorado (30), Gonzaga (31), Cincinnati (32), Florida (39), Xavier (40), Princeton (44), Virginia (48), Drake (49), Butler (54), Oregon (55), Miami-Florida (63), Kansas State (74)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (7): Dayton (16), San Diego State (19), New Mexico (20), FAU (27), Colorado State (34), Boise State (56), Memphis (59)

Current Bid-Stealers (2): Richmond (69), Charlotte (95)

Moving In (12): Colgate, Cornell, Green Bay, Indiana State, Norfolk State, Ole Miss, Quinnipiac, Richmond, Texas, TCU, UC-Irvine, Vermont

Dropping Out (12): Delaware State, Drake, Kansas State, Lafayette, Oakland, Oregon, Princeton, Saint Peter’s, UC-Davis, UMass-Lowell, Wake Forest, Xavier

IF THE SUMMIT LEAGUE TOURNAMENT WERE HELD TODAY
1st Round (March 8)
#8 North Dakota State (2-4) vs. #9 South Dakota (2-5), 7 p.m. (Midco Sports)

Quarterfinals (March 9)
#1 South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State/South Dakota winner, 6 p.m. (Midco Sports)
#2 North Dakota (4-3) vs. #7 Kansas City (3-4), 8:30 (Midco Sports)

Quarterfinals (March 10)
#4 St. Thomas (4-3) vs. #5 Oral Roberts (4-4), 6 p.m. (Midco Sports)
#3 Denver (4-3) vs. #6 Omaha (4-4), 8:30 p.m. (Midco Sports)

IF THE BIG TEN TOURNAMENT WERE HELD TODAY
Weakling Wednesday (March 13)
#12 Ohio State (3-6) vs. #13 Rutgers (2-5), 5:30 CT (Peacock)
#11 Penn State (3-6) vs. #14 Michigan (2-7), 8 p.m. (Peacock)

2nd Round (March 14)
#8 Indiana (4-5) vs. #9 Iowa (4-5), 11 a.m. (BTN)
#5 Maryland (5-5) vs. Ohio State/Rutgers winner, 1:30 p.m. (BTN)
#7 Michigan State (4-5) vs. #10 Minnesota (4-5), 5:30 p.m. (BTN)
#6 Nebraska (5-5) vs. Penn State/Michigan winner, 8 p.m. (BTN)

Quarterfinals (March 15)
#1 Wisconsin (8-1) vs. Indiana/Iowa winner, 11 a.m. (BTN)
#4 Illinois (6-3) vs. Maryland/Ohio State/Rutgers winner, 1:30 (BTN)
#2 Purdue (7-2) vs. Michigan State/Minnesota winner, 5:30 (BTN)
#3 Northwestern (6-3) vs. Nebraska/Penn State/Michigan winner, 8 p.m. (BTN)

STATE OF MINNESOTA IN THE RANKINGS
NET: Minnesota #92, St. Thomas #153
KenPom: Minnesota #84, St. Thomas #142
Haslametrics: Minnesota #73, St. Thomas #126
Click to expand...
Great job with this thread. Constant updates are awesome. Much appreciated!
 

Resume nuggets:

Teams with 4 or more wins vs. the current NET top 50:

6
Arizona
Kansas
Marquette
Purdue
UConn

5
Houston
Wisconsin

4
Alabama
Baylor
Memphis
North Carolina
Northwestern
South Carolina
Tennessee
Utah
 




MONSTER games tonight for bubble teams Virginia Tech & Texas.

The Hokies get the Dukies in Blacksburg, while the 'Horns host #1 in the NET Houston.
 

Need to ask where NET fits into qualifying for tournament. B1G has only four in top 50. You have a number of at larges with pretty low NET rankings. Intuitively this doesn’t look good for B1G but seems odd that teams in 80’s would get in. Is there enough trend data to see how NET effects at larges yet?
 

Holy Man said:
Need to ask where NET fits into qualifying for tournament. B1G has only four in top 50. You have a number of at larges with pretty low NET rankings. Intuitively this doesn’t look good for B1G but seems odd that teams in 80’s would get in. Is there enough trend data to see how NET effects at larges yet?
Click to expand...
The worst NET ranking to ever receive an at-large bid was #77 by Rutgers two seasons ago.
 



RogueGopher said:
If the Big Ten gets only 6 teams in. Gophers need to finish 7th or 8th to get an Automatic bid to the NIT.
Click to expand...

I don't agree with that interpretation. The NIT selection this season is supposed to be completely determined by NET and there are no limits to the number of teams from a conference who can make that tournament.

What you are referring to are the automatic qualifiers from each of the power conferences. The top two (who do not make the NCAA tournament) in NET ranking from each of the 6 power conferences are automatic qualifiers. Then, the four highest remaining NET teams (regardless of conference) are also automatic qualifiers. Those 16 teams will be the home teams for the first round.

The remaining 16 teams are chosen based on NET ranking.

I think the Gophers have to fall within the mid-eighties in NET ranking to be confident of receiving an NIT bid. Right now they don't look like they could finish as an automatic qualifier.

There are 100 spaces total in the NCAA and NIT tournaments but about 12 or 13 of the teams in the NCAA tournament will be from conferences without any team ranking within the Top 100 so they will displace an equivalent amount of teams from those Top 100. Of course, there is also the chance of a small number of bid stealers who might displace Top 100 teams.
 


TwistingMyMelon said:
I don't agree with that interpretation. The NIT selection this season is supposed to be completely determined by NET and there are no limits to the number of teams from a conference who can make that tournament.

What you are referring to are the automatic qualifiers from each of the power conferences. The top two (who do not make the NCAA tournament) in NET ranking from each of the 6 power conferences are automatic qualifiers. Then, the four highest remaining NET teams (regardless of conference) are also automatic qualifiers. Those 16 teams will be the home teams for the first round.

The remaining 16 teams are chosen based on NET ranking.

I think the Gophers have to fall within the mid-eighties in NET ranking to be confident of receiving an NIT bid. Right now they don't look like they could finish as an automatic qualifier.

There are 100 spaces total in the NCAA and NIT tournaments but about 12 or 13 of the teams in the NCAA tournament will be from conferences without any team ranking within the Top 100 so they will displace an equivalent amount of teams from those Top 100. Of course, there is also the chance of a small number of bid stealers who might displace Top 100 teams.
Click to expand...

I mentioned earlier if we can somehow get ahead of MD in the NET, I think that will be good enough because I can see OSU flaming out like they did last year. The only problem is if Nebraska fades a little and doesn't make the tournament, which would give us basically no chance at the auto NIT bid. Iowa seems to be in good shape for the NIT auto bid at this point.
 



RockChalk said:
www.cbssports.com

Bracketology Bubble Watch: Gonzaga faces must-win game with showdown vs. Kentucky up next

Jerry Palm breaks down the teams on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

No sniff for the Gopher yet according to Jerry
Click to expand...
Disappointing, yet not surprising tbh. One of the obvious cons of a weak nonconference schedule. If we keep winning our home games, play Purdue hard, and beat Nebraska on the road, then I think we'll be included. We're on our way up tho.
 

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