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JimmyJamesMD said:
SS, so if we win our last 2 road games, does that help our RPI.

I'm curious because let's say we win those two, win the first round of the BTT, then lose in the second round, that puts us at 23-10.

There are so many weak teams this year. It's tough for me to see us be 23-10, with a RPI of lets say 11 or 12, and not be a 5 or 6 seed, at least.

I guess my real question is can these last two road games propel us into a solid seed if we win them?
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I'm not SS but in a vacuum, yes, it helps our RPI in a very small way to win our last two games (rpiforecast predicts an RPI of 14.3 with wins in our last two regular-season games, vs our current RPI of 16).

Wins in our last two, plus a neutral court win at the BTT followed by a quarterfinals loss puts us probably keeps us around 15th-20th in the RPI. A quarterfinals win would probably bump us up slightly - to maybe 14th or so - but I will say it's really tough to predict where exactly it will go because at this point so much else is going into our formula that's not under our control.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I doubt winning both will help the RPI much. It's been pretty difficult for the Gophers to improve on that #15 range, and beating Nebraska and Purdue won't move the needle much.
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So under my 22-10 scenerio, what kind of seed can we expect? I feel like Lunardi is underseeding us.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
So under my 22-10 scenerio, what kind of seed can we expect? I feel like Lunardi is underseeding us.
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As I mentioned in the bracketology thread, compared to other bracket projections, he is underseeding us, at least in comparison to other people who make projections. A 10 seed is the upper-bound (i.e., highest numeric value) of the most recent half a hundred or so bracket projections to come out.

I will say he's typically pretty good at what he does, so I'd be interested to know his reasoning behind the seeding.

I would say 23-10 (2 wins regular season, 1-1 in the BTT) gets us a 6 or 7 which seems to be about the consensus right now. Each win after the first round of the BTT bumps us up a line.
 

Gopher07 said:
I'm not SS but in a vacuum, yes, it helps our RPI in a very small way to win our last two games (rpiforecast predicts an RPI of 14.3 with wins in our last two regular-season games, vs our current RPI of 16).

Wins in our last two, plus a neutral court win at the BTT followed by a quarterfinals loss puts us probably keeps us around 15th-20th in the RPI. A quarterfinals win would probably bump us up slightly - to maybe 14th or so - but I will say it's really tough to predict where exactly it will go because at this point so much else is going into our formula that's not under our control.
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Makes sense. Thanks!
 

Gopher07 said:
As I mentioned in the bracketology thread, compared to other bracket projections, he is underseeding us, at least in comparison to other people who make projections. A 10 seed is the upper-bound (i.e., highest numeric value) of the most recent half a hundred or so bracket projections to come out.

I will say he's typically pretty good at what he does, so I'd be interested to know his reasoning behind the seeding.
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Thanks again!
 


Gopher07 said:
As I mentioned in the bracketology thread, compared to other bracket projections, he is underseeding us, at least in comparison to other people who make projections. A 10 seed is the upper-bound (i.e., highest numeric value) of the most recent half a hundred or so bracket projections to come out.

I will say he's typically pretty good at what he does, so I'd be interested to know his reasoning behind the seeding.

I would say 23-10 (2 wins regular season, 1-1 in the BTT) gets us a 6 or 7 which seems to be about the consensus right now. Each win after the first round of the BTT bumps us up a line.
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I was a little surprised by his ranking as well especially considering some of the teams ahead of the Gophers. Missouri has just two wins over top 50 RPI teams. The Gophers have five. San Diego St. is 3-6 against Top 50. And I'm not sure why the Pac-12 is getting so much love this year. Their performance in the non-conference schedule was terrible (other than Arizona). The top six teams went a combined 7-12 against top 50 teams. Arizona went 4-0 so take them out and that's just 3-12. USC realistically could go 11-7 in the conference for crying out loud.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I was a little surprised by his ranking as well especially considering some of the teams ahead of the Gophers. Missouri has just two wins over top 50 RPI teams. The Gophers have five. San Diego St. is 3-6 against Top 50. And I'm not sure why the Pac-12 is getting so much love this year. Their performance in the non-conference schedule was terrible (other than Arizona). The top six teams went a combined 7-12 against top 50 teams. Arizona went 4-0 so take them out and that's just 3-12. USC realistically could go 11-7 in the conference for crying out loud.
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The only thing I can think is that he weighs more heavily the team's recent performance. But SDSU is 6-4 in their last 10, Missou is 6-4, we're 5-5. So even that doesn't make much sense.

I dunno, guess he just hates Gophers.
 

Gopher07 said:
The only thing I can think is that he weighs more heavily the team's recent performance. But SDSU is 6-4 in their last 10, Missou is 6-4, we're 5-5. So even that doesn't make much sense.

I dunno, guess he just hates Gophers.
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Does not hate the Gophers. I met the guy once and he has great respect for Tubby and the B1G. Very nice guy, by the way, and I think the original "Bracketologist." There are always outliers and he is one this year.
 

On the Bubble (18) -- roughly 5 of these would make the tournament
#34 Southern Miss
#44 Boise State (LAST 4 IN)
#51 Kentucky (FIRST 4 OUT)
#53 Iowa State (LAST 4 IN)
#54 UMass (FIRST 4 OUT)
#55 Villanova (LAST 4 IN)
#56 Tennessee (LAST 4 IN)
#58 Ole Miss
#60 Alabama (FIRST 4 OUT)
#61 Baylor (FIRST 4 OUT)
#64 Virginia (IN)
#70 Maryland
#71 Saint John's
#78 Providence
#80 Arkansas
#86 Iowa
#92 Xavier
#94 Arizona State
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Iowa defeats Illinois 63-55

Up next home vs Nebraska. A win puts them at 9-9 and 20-11.

1 BTT win and they are 21-11 and in the dance IMO.
 



station19 said:
Iowa defeats Illinois 63-55

Up next home vs Nebraska. A win puts them at 9-9 and 20-11.

1 BTT win and they are 21-11 and in the dance IMO.
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Iowa's record isn't the problem. The problem is who their record is against. They need at least two BTT wins.
 

station19 said:
Iowa defeats Illinois 63-55

Up next home vs Nebraska. A win puts them at 9-9 and 20-11.

1 BTT win and they are 21-11 and in the dance IMO.
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If Iowa makes it without making it to the BTT semi's, it will be a classic version of a rising tide lifts all boats. The NC schedule was awful and they lost some brutal games there. Their B1G season has been admirable given their youth and crappy start, but an RPI in the 70's and a horrible schedule don't scream tournament team to me. Note that at this time, their best win of the year is against us, and I am not sure the committee is going to look at that like an upset of a blue blood. I put them in the long shot group, but they do have a shot at the semi's if Gessell (Sp?) is able to come back for BTT.
 


Can't see Iowa getting in with 1 BTT win. Beating Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, or Purdue doesn't help 'em. All it means is they avoided a bad loss. Need to get to the semis to be in the mix (means they've added a top-25 or top-50 win), maybe even need to get the finals.

Nonconference SOS is 310. Selection Committee really frowns on that kind of nonconference SOS number.
 



Quick question for all you tournament experts. Is there any realistic chance the Gophers end up in Kansas City or Dayton without a protected top 4 seed? I'd like to make it out to see them for the first weekend, but don't really want to drive much further than Dayton.
 

afurry91 said:
Is there any realistic chance the Gophers end up in Kansas City or Dayton without a protected top 4 seed?
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Yes, as good a chance as any of the other sites, maybe better. Gotta' believe at least 1 Big Ten team will get sent to KC. Most likely would be Illinois, Gophers, or Wisconsin (or Iowa if they make it).

Pretty safe bet that Indiana goes to Lexington, Michigan and Michigan State go to Auburn Hills, and Ohio State goes to Dayton, so that lessens the chance of other Big 10 teams going there.
 

station19 said:
Iowa defeats Illinois 63-55

Up next home vs Nebraska. A win puts them at 9-9 and 20-11.

1 BTT win and they are 21-11 and in the dance IMO.
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SelectionSunday said:
Can't see Iowa getting in with 1 BTT win. Beating Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, or Purdue doesn't help 'em. All it means is they avoided a bad loss. Need to get to the semis to be in the mix (means they've added a top-25 or top-50 win), maybe even need to get the finals.

Nonconference SOS is 310. Selection Committee really frowns on that kind of nonconference SOS number.
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Not getting an endorsement from the big guy makes my prediction look weak.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Can't see Iowa getting in with 1 BTT win. Beating Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, or Purdue doesn't help 'em. All it means is they avoided a bad loss. Need to get to the semis to be in the mix (means they've added a top-25 or top-50 win), maybe even need to get the finals.

Nonconference SOS is 310. Selection Committee really frowns on that kind of nonconference SOS number.
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I agree. Iowa is in a slightly worse spot than the Gophers in 2010. Their best bet is to make the BTT finals and know that the Committee won't want to have 2 brackets going until the last minute and will put them in. I don't have enough B1G pride to root for it to happen.
 

I don't see any way Iowa gets in short of winning the automatic berth. Even a run to the finals and a loss there puts their RPI at what, mid 50s? Considering the weakness of the rest of their resumé, that's not good enough.
 

dpodoll68 said:
I don't see any way Iowa gets in short of winning the automatic berth. Even a run to the finals and a loss there puts their RPI at what, mid 50s? Considering the weakness of the rest of their resumé, that's not good enough.
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I think with a run to the finals they'd be right around 50 (rpiforecast says 23-12 would put them at 49.9). They would have probably 5 top 50 wins at that point (could change depending on where Illinois ends up) which would probably be enough to get in, if some other teams on the bubble stumble. Anything short of a run to the finals and there's no chance they're in though.
 

dpodoll68 said:
I don't see any way Iowa gets in short of winning the automatic berth. Even a run to the finals and a loss there puts their RPI at what, mid 50s? Considering the weakness of the rest of their resumé, that's not good enough.
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Most of the last four in, first four out group is in the upper 40's to upper 50's range. I think there is a good chance they get in if they make it to the finals.
 

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