Field of 68 Heading into Championship Week: 15 At-Large Bids Still Available

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SelectionSunday

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Only a few changes over the weekend. We now have 81 teams in the hunt for the 68 spots in the NCAA Tournament field. The most notable change is Illinois going from "not quite locked in" to a "lock". My early guess is Virginia (follows up win over Duke with loss @ Boston College) and Saint Mary's could be among the Selection Committee's most difficult deliberations.

I'll post two more "Field of 68" projections, one next Monday and the final one sometime late Saturday night/early Sunday morning March 16/17.

Conference Leader/#1 Seed in Conference Tournament (31)
#2 New Mexico (Mountain West)
#3 Miami-Florida (ACC)
#4 Kansas (Big 12)
#6 Florida (SEC)
#7 Indiana (Big 10)
#9 Gonzaga (WCC)
#11 Georgetown (Big East)
#19 Memphis (Conference USA)
#23 Belmont (OVC)
#26 Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt)
#28 Saint Louis (A-10)
#30 UCLA (Pac 12)
#36 Creighton (MVC)
#46 Akron (MAC)
#48 Louisiana Tech (WAC)
#52 Bucknell (Patriot)
#62 Valparaiso (Horizon)
#63 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
#69 Stony Brook (America East)
#73 South Dakota State (Summit)
#76 Davidson (Southern)
#100 Montana (Big Sky)
#115 Princeton (Ivy)
#114 Robert Morris (NEC)
#118 Long Beach State (Big West)
#122 Niagara (MAAC)
#133 Mercer (Atlantic Sun)
#159 Northeastern (Colonial)
#171 Norfolk State (MEAC)
#185 Southern (SWAC)
#188 Charleston Southern (Big South)

Locks (22)
#1 Duke
#5 Louisville
#8 Michigan State
#10 Michigan
#12 Marquette
#13 UNLV
#14 Arizona
#15 Syracuse
#16 GOPHERS
#17 Colorado State
#18 Kansas State
#20 North Carolina
#21 Ohio State
#22 Oklahoma
#24 NC State
#25 Oklahoma State
#29 Butler
#31 VCU
#33 Missouri
#35 Illinois
#38 Pitt
#41 Wisconsin

In, But Not Quite Locked In (10) -- 1 or 2 more wins should ice it
#27 Colorado
#32 San Diego State
#37 Saint Mary's
#40 Wichita State
#42 Temple
#43 Cal
#45 LaSalle
#47 Notre Dame
#49 Oregon
#50 Cincinnati

On the Bubble (18) -- roughly 5 of these would make the tournament
#34 Southern Miss
#44 Boise State (LAST 4 IN)
#51 Kentucky (FIRST 4 OUT)
#53 Iowa State (LAST 4 IN)
#54 UMass (FIRST 4 OUT)
#55 Villanova (LAST 4 IN)
#56 Tennessee (LAST 4 IN)
#58 Ole Miss
#60 Alabama (FIRST 4 OUT)
#61 Baylor (FIRST 4 OUT)
#64 Virginia (IN)
#70 Maryland
#71 Saint John's
#78 Providence
#80 Arkansas
#86 Iowa
#92 Xavier
#94 Arizona State

Problematic for Bubble Teams?
The following conferences/teams could be problematic for bubble teams if the prohibitive favorite(s) doesn't win the conference tournament:
Conference USA -- Memphis
MAC -- Akron
MVC -- Creighton or Wichita State
OVC -- Belmont
Sun Belt -- Middle Tennessee
WCC -- Gonzaga or Saint Mary's
WAC -- Louisiana Tech
 

Virginia is really perilous right now. They basically have to sweep their final two conference games (@ FSU, vs Maryland), or make a run to the semis in the ACC tourney, to make the NCAA tournament IMO. The loss to BC really wiped out any momentum they had from the Duke upset.
 

Selection, I am going out on a limb and predicting that someone other than Creighton or Wichita wins the MVC tournamnent, creating a dilemma for the committee, and perhaps bumping a bubble team off.

Also, you are bold in having Kentucky as first four out. My guess is that if they are even close, they are in. And I would not be surprised if they come up with a 6/11 or 5/12 between the Gophers and them. Pretty entertaining for the basketball world.

Finally, I see the Gopers RPI dropped with the win Nit win. What happens to it with a sweep of low end teams Nebraska and Purdue? Does the road factor keep it up, or does it drop even with a win? Curious.
 

Virginia reminds me of Seth Greenberg's Va Tech bubble teams

Yep. Virginia reminds me of Seth Greenberg's Virginia Tech bubble teams. ...

(1) Do very little in nonconference;

(2) Notch a huge win (or two) late in the season against a top-shelf team; but

(3) Follow it up with a bad loss or two to put themselves back on, or further down, the bubble.

My hunch is if Virginia win those lose two they'll get in, but certainly that's far from a given.
 

Holy Man said:
Selection, I am going out on a limb and predicting that someone other than Creighton or Wichita wins the MVC tournamnent, creating a dilemma for the committee, and perhaps bumping a bubble team off.

Also, you are bold in having Kentucky as first four out. My guess is that if they are even close, they are in. And I would not be surprised if they come up with a 6/11 or 5/12 between the Gophers and them. Pretty entertaining for the basketball world.

Finally, I see the Gopers RPI dropped with the win Nit win. What happens to it with a sweep of low end teams Nebraska and Purdue? Does the road factor keep it up, or does it drop even with a win? Curious.
Click to expand...

MVC definitely should be a fun tournament. There's really not a a ton of difference from 1 to 10. I'm taking Evansville in my conference tourney pool.

Losing road games not as damaging as losing home games. Would estimate the Gophers' RPI would drop to the mid- to high-20's if they drop both games this week
 


Louisiana Tech does not deserve at large consideration. Didn't play or beat anyone.
 

From the Barn said:
Louisiana Tech does not deserve at large consideration. Didn't play or beat anyone.
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Hard to argue. Home win over Southern Miss is all they have outside the WAC.

If they win at Denver and New Mexico State (both top 100 teams) this week, I think they'd get strong consideration with a 18-0 conference mark (even though the WAC sucks). I suspect Denver will knock 'em off, though.
 

Holy Man said:
Also, you are bold in having Kentucky as first four out. My guess is that if they are even close, they are in. And I would not be surprised if they come up with a 6/11 or 5/12 between the Gophers and them. Pretty entertaining for the basketball world.
Click to expand...

I agree. Kentucky is in unless it loses the last 2 conference games as well as the opener of the SEC tourney. The NCAA and their TV partner would love to have Kentucky in the play-in game on Tuesday or Wednesday. Huge for ratings. And I agree that the play-in could coincide with Minnesota's 5th or 6th seed to add in the Tubby vs UK angle.

Other angles/story lines to watch for in seedings and potential 1st or 2nd round matchups:

- Minnesota vs Colorado St or Cal or VCU (seeding might not work out) - Iverson or Cobb vs old team or Shaka vs Teague
- Duke(1 or 2 seed) vs Butler (7 thru 10 seed) - NC rematch
- Kansas (1 or 2 seed) vs UNC (7 thru 10 seed) - 'Ol Roy vs Kansas
or
- Kansas (1 or 2 seed) vs Missouri (7 thru 10 seed) - Hated rivals
- Kansas St (3 seed) vs Illinois (6 seed) - Weber vs Illinois
- Michigan St(2 or 3 seed) vs Iowa St(10 or 11 seed). Lucious vs Old team
- Marquette(4 seed) vs St Louis (5 seed) - Majerus memorial game
- Wisconsin(5 seed) vs Virginia (12 seed) - Bennett vs Wisconsin part 2
- UNC vs UCLA - Drew III and Wear Twins vs old team
 

Pewterschmidt said:
I agree. Kentucky is in unless it loses the last 2 conference games as well as the opener of the SEC tourney. The NCAA and their TV partner would love to have Kentucky in the play-in game on Tuesday or Wednesday. Huge for ratings. And I agree that the play-in could coincide with Minnesota's 5th or 6th seed to add in the Tubby vs UK angle.

Other angles/story lines to watch for in seedings and potential 1st or 2nd round matchups:

- Minnesota vs Colorado St or Cal or VCU (seeding might not work out) - Iverson or Cobb vs old team or Shaka vs Teague
- Duke(1 or 2 seed) vs Butler (7 thru 10 seed) - NC rematch
- Kansas (1 or 2 seed) vs UNC (7 thru 10 seed) - 'Ol Roy vs Kansas
or
- Kansas (1 or 2 seed) vs Missouri (7 thru 10 seed) - Hated rivals
- Kansas St (3 seed) vs Illinois (6 seed) - Weber vs Illinois
- Michigan St(2 or 3 seed) vs Iowa St(10 or 11 seed). Lucious vs Old team
- Marquette(4 seed) vs St Louis (5 seed) - Majerus memorial game
- Wisconsin(5 seed) vs Virginia (12 seed) - Bennett vs Wisconsin part 2
- UNC vs UCLA - Drew III and Wear Twins vs old team[/QUOTE

The rest, fine, but that one...stretching it a bit. Not a lot of classic A.D. vs. coach match-ups that i look forward to.
Click to expand...
 



mnsports1 said:
Pewterschmidt said:
I agree. Kentucky is in unless it loses the last 2 conference games as well as the opener of the SEC tourney. The NCAA and their TV partner would love to have Kentucky in the play-in game on Tuesday or Wednesday. Huge for ratings. And I agree that the play-in could coincide with Minnesota's 5th or 6th seed to add in the Tubby vs UK angle.

Other angles/story lines to watch for in seedings and potential 1st or 2nd round matchups:

- Minnesota vs Colorado St or Cal or VCU (seeding might not work out) - Iverson or Cobb vs old team or Shaka vs Teague
- Duke(1 or 2 seed) vs Butler (7 thru 10 seed) - NC rematch
- Kansas (1 or 2 seed) vs UNC (7 thru 10 seed) - 'Ol Roy vs Kansas
or
- Kansas (1 or 2 seed) vs Missouri (7 thru 10 seed) - Hated rivals
- Kansas St (3 seed) vs Illinois (6 seed) - Weber vs Illinois
- Michigan St(2 or 3 seed) vs Iowa St(10 or 11 seed). Lucious vs Old team
- Marquette(4 seed) vs St Louis (5 seed) - Majerus memorial game
- Wisconsin(5 seed) vs Virginia (12 seed) - Bennett vs Wisconsin part 2
- UNC vs UCLA - Drew III and Wear Twins vs old team[/QUOTE

The rest, fine, but that one...stretching it a bit. Not a lot of classic A.D. vs. coach match-ups that i look forward to.
Click to expand...

It would be the biggest storyline locally. It's not just Shaka vs Teague. It's Tubby vs the coach that is most discussed to be his replacement. But I agree that the committee would unlikely take that into consideration.
Click to expand...
 

SelectionSunday said:
MVC definitely should be a fun tournament. There's really not a a ton of difference from 1 to 10. I'm taking Evansville in my conference tourney pool
Click to expand...

Let's Go Drake! They can definitely upset anyone, although I highly doubt they make a big run. Should be a fun tourney either way. I'm taking Wichita St. in this one.
 

I'm liking the Gophers chances of heading west this year. To me, as long as Gonzaga is a #1 seed, that's the region I'd most prefer to play no matter what the seed.
 

Pewterschmidt said:
Kansas (1 or 2 seed) vs Missouri (7 thru 10 seed) - Hated rivals
Click to expand...

I'll be at the Sprint Center, so this is the one I'm really hoping for. Would be really cool to see those two go at it, especially the very first year after Mizzou bolts from the Big 12.
 



I have a sneaky feeling that ALL of March Madness is going to create a tremendous betting frenzy in Vegas.

GO GOPHERS!!!
 

Pewterschmidt said:
It would be the biggest storyline locally. It's not just Shaka vs Teague. It's Tubby vs the coach that is most discussed to be his replacement. But I agree that the committee would unlikely take that into consideration.
Click to expand...

While reading over a Wisconsin board, most of them seem to think that it's absolutely ridiculous that some Gopher fans think we have a shot at Shaka Smart, of course most them also didn't seem to know that VCU's AD is now here. Our biggest rivals didn't even know we got a new AD. The Shaka-to-Minnesota thing just seems to be a pipe dream, the only ones that think there's any chance in hell that it happens are Minnesota fans. There just seems to be this belief that Shaka Smart will be knocking at Minnesota's door if Teague snaps his fingers, personally I highly doubt we get him, and I doubt that the "Fire Tubby, hire Smart" thing is even a blip on the national radar. Same thing with playing Cal or Colorado State, I don't think Minnesota or either of those programs are nationally relevant enough to make it a big deal if we were to play each other.
 

Cayman said:
While reading over a Wisconsin board, most of them seem to think that it's absolutely ridiculous that some Gopher fans think we have a shot at Shaka Smart, of course most them also didn't seem to know that VCU's AD is now here. Our biggest rivals didn't even know we got a new AD. The Shaka-to-Minnesota thing just seems to be a pipe dream, the only ones that think there's any chance in hell that it happens are Minnesota fans. There just seems to be this belief that Shaka Smart will be knocking at Minnesota's door if Teague snaps his fingers, personally I highly doubt we get him, and I doubt that the "Fire Tubby, hire Smart" thing is even a blip on the national radar. Same thing with playing Cal or Colorado State, I don't think Minnesota or either of those programs are nationally relevant enough to make it a big deal if we were to play each other.
Click to expand...

Wisconsin fans think? Now that would be a new experience for them.
 

Shaka

Shaka Smart appears to be a very good basketball coach. However, there are a lot of quality basketball coaches across the country, head or otherwise. Some of the talk on here, Smart is made out to be the second coming for any program that hired him. Could be, but just not buying that he's some sorta' sure-fire home run.

It would be interesting to see how his preferred VCU "wreaking havoc" style would fly in the Big 10. I suspect he'd find it much more difficult to pull that off in the B1G than in the CAA and A-10. There's this little thing called lock-down defense (usually in the half court) that most of the coaches in the Big 10 prefer, and master. If Shaka ever gets to coach in the Big 10 and gets that style to work, then I'll know he's truly a coaching magician.
 

Cayman said:
While reading over a Wisconsin board, most of them seem to think that it's absolutely ridiculous that some Gopher fans think we have a shot at Shaka Smart, of course most them also didn't seem to know that VCU's AD is now here. Our biggest rivals didn't even know we got a new AD. The Shaka-to-Minnesota thing just seems to be a pipe dream, the only ones that think there's any chance in hell that it happens are Minnesota fans. There just seems to be this belief that Shaka Smart will be knocking at Minnesota's door if Teague snaps his fingers, personally I highly doubt we get him, and I doubt that the "Fire Tubby, hire Smart" thing is even a blip on the national radar. Same thing with playing Cal or Colorado State, I don't think Minnesota or either of those programs are nationally relevant enough to make it a big deal if we were to play each other.
Click to expand...

I'm not implying that Shaka would be the likely next head coach. I'm just stating that it would be a big storyline locally if those 2 teams played. No name is discussed more than Shaka's when talking about a replacement for Tubby. Whether you or I think it's a pipe dream that we get him is not my point. My point is what would get the masses talking and watching. Simple as that. Good fodder.
 

Dr.Don said:
I have a sneaky feeling that ALL of March Madness is going to create a tremendous betting frenzy in Vegas.

GO GOPHERS!!!
Click to expand...

And here are the latest betting odds.

Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana with odds of 11-4.

Cardinal Angelo Scola from Italy with odds of 3-1

Cardinal Marc Ouellet from Canada with odds of 6-1

Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone from Italy with odds of 6-1

Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco from Italy with odds of 8-1

Cardinal Leonardo Sandri from Argentina with odds of 12-1

:cool02:

Can you tell what color the smoke is?
 


I have to believe Kentucky and UVa have inside tracks on the bubble. While there are two istances recently of leaving out the defending champs (Florida and UNC) they weren't really close to making it. You know they want them in the field, especially since it's Kentucky. And they can swear they don't pay attention to the conferences, but leaving out a team thats 4 games over .500 in conference and having only 4 teams in from the ACC when they have two of the top 6 teams in the field is also hard to believe.
 

Wasn't Virginia Tech left out of the tournament a few years ago with a pretty similar resume to Virginia?
 


station19 said:
And here are the latest betting odds.

Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana with odds of 11-4.

Cardinal Angelo Scola from Italy with odds of 3-1

Cardinal Marc Ouellet from Canada with odds of 6-1

Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone from Italy with odds of 6-1

Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco from Italy with odds of 8-1

Cardinal Leonardo Sandri from Argentina with odds of 12-1

:cool02:

Can you tell what color the smoke is?
Click to expand...


I'll take O'Malley to block on a long shot.
 


SelectionSunday said:
MVC definitely should be a fun tournament. There's really not a a ton of difference from 1 to 10. I'm taking Evansville in my conference tourney pool.

Losing road games not as damaging as losing home games. Would estimate the Gophers' RPI would drop to the mid- to high-20's if they drop both games this week
Click to expand...

I didn't think RPI considered home/away. I thought it was straight up .25(winning percentage)+.5(opponents winning percentage)+.25(opponents opponents winning percentage).
 

SelectionSunday said:
In 2010, Virginia Tech finished 23-8, 10-6 in the ACC and did not receive a bid. Nonconference schedule was dreadful
Click to expand...

I stand corrected. Both UVa and VT could solve the problem by playing VCU/Richmond instead of Longwood/VMI. But they won't do it.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I didn't think RPI considered home/away. I thought it was straight up .25(winning percentage)+.5(opponents winning percentage)+.25(opponents opponents winning percentage).
Click to expand...

Unless something has changed recently, for RPI calculations a road win = 1.4 (wins) while a home win = .6 (wins).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Unless something has changed recently, for RPI calculations a road win = 1.4 (wins) while a home win = .6 (wins).
Click to expand...

SS, so if we win our last 2 road games, does that help our RPI.

I'm curious because let's say we win those two, win the first round of the BTT, then lose in the second round, that puts us at 23-10.

There are so many weak teams this year. It's tough for me to see us be 23-10, with a RPI of lets say 11 or 12, and not be a 5 or 6 seed, at least.

I guess my real question is can these last two road games propel us into a solid seed if we win them?
 

I doubt winning both will help the RPI much. It's been pretty difficult for the Gophers to improve on that #15 range, and beating Nebraska and Purdue won't move the needle much.
 

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