Field of 68: Gophers Sit Roughly 5 Spots Below Bubble Cutline

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SelectionSunday

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With 4 weeks remaining in the regular season, the Gophers remain just outside of my Field of 68 projection. I have the Maroon & Gold among the "first 8 out", roughly 5 spots below the bubble cutline. At some point they need to distance themselves from their .500ish overall record (currently 12-11). The hunch here is the Gophers need to be at least 3 games over .500 on Selection Sunday if they intend to earn an at-large bid.

The Big Ten leads all conferences with 10 teams projected into the field. The Big East is next with 6, followed by the Big XII, Pac 12, and SEC with 5 each. Other conferences currently projecting to receive multiple bids are the ACC (4), American (3), Atlantic 10 (3), WCC (3), and SoCon (2).

The current conference leader in a multiple-bid conference is noted with an *.

FIELD OF 68 (through games played Feb. 9)
America East (1): Vermont (83)

American (3): *Houston (29), Cincinnati (46), Wichita State (50)

ACC (4): Duke (6), *Louisville (7), Florida State (13), Virginia (52)

ASUN (1): North Florida (178)

Atlantic 10 (3): *Dayton (5), VCU (35), Rhode Island (36)

Big East (6): *Seton Hall (12), Butler (14), Marquette (17), Villanova (18), Creighton (24), Xavier (44)

Big Sky (1): Montana (144)

Big South (1): Winthrop (121)

Big Ten (10): *Maryland (8), Michigan State (11), Penn State (19), Ohio State (21), Purdue (26), Iowa (28), Rutgers (31), Michigan (32), Wisconsin (33), Illinois (34)

Big XII (5): *Baylor (3), Kansas (4), West Virginia (9), Texas Tech (20), Oklahoma (49)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (116)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (131)

Conference USA (1): North Texas (90)

Horizon (1): Wright State (123)

Ivy (1): Yale (57)

MAAC (1): Rider (195)

MAC (1): Bowling Green (155)

MEAC (1): North Carolina A&T (265)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (37)

Mountain West (1): San Diego State (1)

NEC (1): Robert Morris (213)

OVC (1): Murray State (138)

Pac 12 (5): Arizona (10), *Colorado (16), Oregon (25), USC (47), Arizona State (54)

Patriot (1): Colgate (122)

SEC (5): *Auburn (15), Kentucky (22), LSU (27), Arkansas (38), Florida (45)

SoCon (2): East Tennessee State (43), *Furman (72)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (84)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (191)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (125)

Sun Belt (1): Little Rock (137)

WCC (3): *Gonzaga (2), BYU (23), Saint Mary's (39)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (114)
_______________________________________
Last 4 In: Oklahoma (49), Wichita State (50), Virginia (52), Arizona State (54)

First 8 Out: Stanford (30), Minnesota (40), Mississippi State (41), Alabama (42), Utah State (48), Georgetown (53), Richmond (55), Memphis (59)

Non-Power 7 At-Larges (5): BYU (23), VCU (35), Rhode Island (36), Saint Mary's (39), East Tennessee State (43)
______________________________
Movin' On In (9): Arizona State, Cincinnati, Hofstra, Montana, Murray State, Prairie View A&M, Rider, Texas Tech, VCU

Movin' On Out (9): Austin Peay, Eastern Washington, Indiana, Memphis, Monmouth, Stanford, Texas Southern, Tulsa, William & Mary

Next Field of 68 Update: Monday, February 17
 
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What is Pitinos status if Gophs miss tourney?
 





PMWinSTP said:
Really...thanks for sharing. Too controversial for a thread about making the tourney. Interesting.
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A whole thread could be devoted to talking about Pitino's future with this team. No need to derail this one.
 


PMWinSTP said:
Really...thanks for sharing. Too controversial for a thread about making the tourney. Interesting.
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You’re welcome! I would just prefer this not turn into another pissing match about Pitino. This is about the bracket, not about Pitino. We have enough pissing matches on GopherHole to last a lifetime, we don’t need another one!
 




How bad is MBB this year when a just over .500 team still has a decent chance to go dancing at this point in the season.
 

Are Ohio State and Michigan still comfortably in because of quality non-conference wins? Purdue up above the bubble after beating Iowa?
 

Cayman said:
Are Ohio State and Michigan still comfortably in because of quality non-conference wins? Purdue up above the bubble after beating Iowa?
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OSU and Michigan just need to avoid imploding and they’ll get in. As you said, that’s where getting quality non-conference wins comes into play.

Purdue had a huge week with the Iowa win + the win at Indiana. I definitely have the Boilers above the bubble at this point.
 





SelectionSunday said:
Hoping that’s not THE RESULT that keeps Gophers out. Still stings.
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I think if they miss it'll be easy to point to that game (and that's fair), but the loss at home to DePaul is the one that'll especially sting in my mind.

On the flip, crazy to think that if the Utah, DePaul, and Purdue games had flipped ever so slightly differently, we'd be looking at a 7-8 seeded team right now.
 

I'm sorry guys, but I just don't see this as a season the Gophers make the dance. They are way too inconsistent. I have a question though, when Ohio State pretty well loses the rest of their games here coming up and the Gophers go 3-4. Are we in?
 




SelectionSunday said:
No, unless they win the Big Ten Tournament.
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Maybe this is far fetched, but say the Gophers go 3-4 but a couple of the wins are on the road then win 3 (or 4 if playing on Wednesday) to get to the Big 10 title game. 18-16, puncher's chance? I would think that would rack up quite a few Quad 1 & 2s.
 

SoCon with two?? That’s BS. Why does a low-major ever deserve more than one bid.
 

MplsGopher said:
SoCon with two?? That’s BS. Why does a low-major ever deserve more than one bid.
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The best team (#43 NET East Tennessee State) currently is tied for first place with Furman, but Furman would be the #1 seed in SoCon tourney because of head to head. At this point I'd say ETSU and Northern Iowa are the mid-majors from traditionally 1-bid leagues with the best chance to receive at-large bids if they don't win their conference tourney.
 

Ope3 said:
Maybe this is far fetched, but say the Gophers go 3-4 but a couple of the wins are on the road then win 3 (or 4 if playing on Wednesday) to get to the Big 10 title game. 18-16, puncher's chance? I would think that would rack up quite a few Quad 1 & 2s.
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Sure, anything's possible! I tend to evaluate scenarios that only involve a bubble team advancing as far as the conference tourney semis. That's usually where they peter out.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The best team (#43 NET East Tennessee State) currently is tied for first place with Furman, but Furman would be the #1 seed in SoCon tourney because of head to head. At this point I'd say ETSU and Northern Iowa are the mid-majors from traditionally 1-bid leagues with the best chance to receive at-large bids if they don't win their conference tourney.
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I’m sure you’re technically correct about those teams. But SoCon is a low major. It’s on the same level as the Summit League.

If a great team from the Summit or SoCon loses their conf tourny: too f’ing bad. You missed your one ticket. You don’t get to take away a spot from a more deserving high major.
 

We differ on two. I have Memphis and Indiana IN. I have Furman (with the same difference in how we do the conference champ as last week) and VCU OUT.

Last Four IN: Florida, Indiana, Memphis, Virginia
First Four OUT: NC State, Georgetown, Minnesota, VCU

FWIW, I also would have ETSU IN as an at-large.
 

bizzle22 said:
We differ on two. I have Memphis and Indiana IN. I have Furman (with the same difference in how we do the conference champ as last week) and VCU OUT.

Last Four IN: Florida, Indiana, Memphis, Virginia
First Four OUT: NC State, Georgetown, Minnesota, VCU

FWIW, I also would have ETSU IN as an at-large.
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ETSU definitely has a legit shot to get an at-large.
 

What’s the lowest KenPom rating a team has had that missed the dance? Gophers currently sitting at 31 in KenPom and 40 in the Net.
 


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