Field of 68: Gophers Drop Out of Consideration (for now)

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SelectionSunday

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The Gophers' gut-ripping home loss to Iowa has dropped them completely off my at-large board, for now. That's what happens when your record slips to 12-12 with 6 games to play. They face two "must wins" this week, at home vs. highly dysfunctional Indiana and on the road in sleepy Evanston vs. last-place Northwestern. Anything less than a pair of wins and it's "lights out" on the Gophers' NCAA Tournament chances.

An * denotes the conference leader/projected #1 conference tournament seed in a multiple-bid conference.

FIELD OF 68 (through games played Feb. 16)
America East (1): Vermont (79)

American (3): Houston (27), Wichita State (46), *Cincinnati (51)

ACC (4): *Duke (6), Louisville (9), Florida State (15), Virginia (55)

ASUN (1): North Florida (163)

Atlantic 10 (2): *Dayton (5), Rhode Island (32)

Big East (6): Creighton (13), *Seton Hall (14), Villanova (16), Marquette (19), Butler (20), Xavier (40)

Big Sky (1): Montana (132)

Big South (1): Winthrop (141)

Big Ten (10): *Maryland (7), Michigan State (12), Penn State (17), Ohio State (18), Michigan (26), Iowa (28), Rutgers (30), Wisconsin (31), Purdue (33), Illinois (38)

Big XII (5): *Baylor (2), Kansas (4), West Virginia (10), Texas Tech (21), Oklahoma (47)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (111)

Colonial (1): Hofstra (126)

Conference USA (1): North Texas (90)

Horizon (1): Wright State (113)

Ivy (1): Yale (57)

MAAC (1): Saint Peter's (216)

MAC (1): Bowling Green (149)

MEAC (1): NCCU (249)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (40)

Mountain West (2): *San Diego State (1), Utah State (41)

NEC (1): Robert Morris (221)

OVC (1): Austin Peay (144)

Pac 12 (5): Arizona (8), Colorado (11), *Oregon (22), USC (49), Arizona State (50)

Patriot (1): Colgate (118)

SEC (5): *Kentucky (24), Auburn (25), LSU (29), Florida (35), Alabama (36)

SoCon (2): East Tennessee State (42), *Furman (73)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (85)

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M (190)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (122)

Sun Belt (1): Little Rock (146)

WCC (3): *Gonzaga (3), BYU (23), Saint Mary's (34)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (123)
__________________________________

Last 4 At-Larges In: Purdue (33), Alabama (36), Utah State (41), Oklahoma (47)

Last 4 Automatic Qualifiers: Prairie View A&M (190), Saint Peter's (216), Robert Morris (221), NCCU (249)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (7): BYU (23), Houston (27), Rhode Island (32), Saint Mary's (34), Utah State (41), East Tennessee State (42), Wichita State (46)

First 8 At-Larges Out: Stanford (37), Georgetown (43), Richmond (45), Arkansas (48), Mississippi State (53), NC-Greensboro (56), Indiana (63), South Carolina (64)
________________________________
Movin' On In (5): Alabama, Austin Peay, NCCU, Saint Peter's, Utah State

Movin' On Out (5): Arkansas, Murray State, North Carolina A&T, Rider, VCU
 
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Now updated to include current (Monday) NET rankings for all teams.
 

We differ on 3.

I have Georgetown, Richmond, and NC State IN.

I have Furman (w/ ETSU getting auto bid), Purdue, and Alabama OUT.

Last Four In: Utah State, NC State, Texas Tech, Richmond.
First Four Out: Indiana, UNC-Greensboro, Purdue, Arkansas
 

bizzle22 said:
We differ on 3.

I have Georgetown, Richmond, and NC State IN.

I have Furman (w/ ETSU getting auto bid), Purdue, and Alabama OUT.

Last Four In: Utah State, NC State, Texas Tech, Richmond.
First Four Out: Indiana, UNC-Greensboro, Purdue, Arkansas
Click to expand...

Good stuff!

Texas Tech is a tricky one. I hate their resume, but their NET ranking is so strong.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Good stuff!

Texas Tech is a tricky one. I hate their resume, but their NET ranking is so strong.
Click to expand...
Thanks!
I'm with you on TT. The computer numbers are really good, but I can't get over that 2-8 record in Q1 games, road record, and the average win ranking. Probably the team where I differ most from other bracket's I've seen.
 


I think that if Texas Tech ends up as like a 10 seed, no 2 seed wants to potentially play them second round. I know at some point you have to actually win the games, and they have to be seeded poorly based on their record, but I'm convinced that they're actually a pretty good team.
 

Those Ohio State and Michigan wins are looking better and better...

16 wins + 2 wins in the B1G might get the Gophers in.
 






builtbadgers said:
No reason to give up on the teams fate until it is over. Every game is winnable and the field is far from set.
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Any one game is winnable. Needing to win three more of these last four, is a very low percentage.
 


builtbadgers said:
Agree but there not any great teams in the conference.
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I'm merely talking about multiplying percentages.

Even if we had a 70% chance of winning each of the last four games, on their own, winning three of them is a 70%^3 = 34% chance.
 
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MplsGopher said:
I'm merely talking about multiplying percentages.

Even if we had a 70% chance of winning each of the last four games, on their own, winning three of them is a 3*70% = 21% chance.
Click to expand...

I get your point, but technically it would be a 0.70*0.70*0.70 = 34.3% chance

So you are saying there is a chance!
 


MplsGopher said:
I'm merely talking about multiplying percentages.

Even if we had a 70% chance of winning each of the last four games, on their own, winning three of them is a 70%^3 = 34% chance.
Click to expand...
Understand but those numbers rarely hold and we play one at a time. To start with I do not see Maryland as that much better than we are.
 

The team is in a weird position. It has performed better than I expected after the first half of our non-conference schedule, but going into this season I thought we were the definition of a bubble team (although most paid prognosticators said that we didn't have a shot at the tourney)... We were so close to maintaining that bubble status.. Now it will take a significant run to get there.

Overall, I don't think we can blame Pitino. Gabe's lackluster season really hurt our chances.. We definitely give Pitino one more year with this upcoming class and we'll see what happens
 


One game at a time, beat Maryland .
 

MplsGopher said:
Doh! Yes, 70% ^3, not 3*70%, thanks!
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It's slightly more complicated than that. You've correctly calculated the probability of winning 3 out of 3 with a 70% chance in each game. But the question was winning 3 out of 4. And that extra game is key. Here's the formula:

binomial.png
Where n is the number of games, k is the number of games you want to win, p is the chance of winning each game and q is 1-p. The part in parentheses is "n choose k" which is n!/(k!*(n-k)!).

Works out to (4!/(3!*1!))*(0.7^3)*(0.3^1) = 4*(0.7^3)*0.3 = 0.4116 or 41.2%.

So if we had a 70% chance of winning each of the four games, we would have a 41% chance of winning exactly 3 of them. But we'd also have a 24% (0.7^4) chance of winning all four.

So if we had a 70% chance of winning each of the four games, we'd have a 65% chance of winning at least 3 of 4.

Unless I've made a mistake, which is entirely possible.
 
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builtbadgers said:
Understand but those numbers rarely hold and we play one at a time. To start with I do not see Maryland as that much better than we are.
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Regardless how it feels, the formula is correct. We just don’t know the “true” number for each game.

Do you think we have a 70% chance of beating Maryland this week?
 

ATLgopherfan said:
It's slightly more complicated than that. You've correctly calculated the probability of winning 3 out of 3 with a 70% chance in each game. But the question was winning 3 out of 4. And that extra game is key. Here's the formula:

View attachment 7164
Where n is the number of games, k is the number of games you want to win, p is the chance of winning each game and q is 1-p. The part in parentheses is "n choose k" which is n!/(k!*(n-k)!).

Works out to (4!/(3!*1!))*(0.7^3)*(0.3^1) = 4*(0.7^3)*0.3 = 0.4116 or 41.2%.

So if we had a 70% chance of winning each of the four games, we would have a 41% chance of winning exactly 3 of them. But we'd also have a 24% (0.7^4) chance of winning all four.

So if we had a 70% chance of winning each of the four games, we'd have a 65% chance of winning 3 of 4.

Unless I've made a mistake, which is entirely possible.
Click to expand...
The formula you bring up is in regards to ordering, in the sense of total permutations that are possible of wins and losses. For example, WLWW gives the same result as WWLW. There are (n,k) ways to order them, hence why you multiply by that. But each has the same probability, which is what I was talking about. So sure, the prob for winning 3 and losing 1, when all four have a 70% chance of winning, is .7^3 * .3 = 10%. That is too far skewed down, because the loss is probably far less than 70% chance of winning.

All I was trying to say is this: someone pointed out that we need to get to 16 wins before the tourny. So if you look at just the three most likely games of these last four, and say that each was 70%, then the chances of winning all three is still only 34%.

Anyway, it’s was just a minor point. I was told there would be no math.
 

MplsGopher said:
Regardless how it feels, the formula is correct. We just don’t know the “true” number for each game.

Do you think we have a 70% chance of beating Maryland this week?
Click to expand...
NO. but I think it is 60% and I am the eternal optimist about this team.
 

If you use the BPI odds from ESPN, then they have about a 32% chance to win at least 3 of the 4 games. Winning against Maryland, Indiana, and Nebraska give the best odds to do so, at 12%.
 

Lakers612 said:
Overall, I don't think we can blame Pitino. Gabe's lackluster season really hurt our chances.. We definitely give Pitino one more year with this upcoming class and we'll see what happens
Click to expand...

Then sit him down or tell him to quit shooting. This is not hard or rocket science. If someone is sucking, let them fill water bottles. Don't continue to run them out there and let them throw up bricks for weeks and months on end.
 

Gopherbbdude said:
Beat MD at home and the fans are back in
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Agree.

But I would give the Gophers a 10-15% chance of winning that game. This game, IMO will be the toughest one to get. I feel like if we get this one, we have a decent chance to win out. Lose this one though, I would wager losing out is likely.
 

Go Gophs said:
Agree.

But I would give the Gophers a 10-15% chance of winning that game. This game, IMO will be the toughest one to get. I feel like if we get this one, we have a decent chance to win out. Lose this one though, I would wager losing out is likely.
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What metrics do you use to come up with 10-15%? ESPN's BPI gives the Gophers 52% chance of winning. What are you seeing that maybe the computers are missing?
 

I have watched the games. LOL. Just so dang inconsistent. I hope we win and if they give us a 52% chance of it, lets run with it.
 

Go Gophs said:
I have watched the games. LOL. Just so dang inconsistent. I hope we win and if they give us a 52% chance of it, lets run with it.
Click to expand...
to me, it's always 50/50
 

MplsGopher said:
The formula you bring up is in regards to ordering, in the sense of total permutations that are possible of wins and losses. For example, WLWW gives the same result as WWLW. There are (n,k) ways to order them, hence why you multiply by that. But each has the same probability, which is what I was talking about. So sure, the prob for winning 3 and losing 1, when all four have a 70% chance of winning, is .7^3 * .3 = 10%. That is too far skewed down, because the loss is probably far less than 70% chance of winning.

All I was trying to say is this: someone pointed out that we need to get to 16 wins before the tourny. So if you look at just the three most likely games of these last four, and say that each was 70%, then the chances of winning all three is still only 34%.

Anyway, it’s was just a minor point. I was told there would be no math.
Click to expand...

Ah, didn't realize you were talking about only the three most likely games. My math is right for 3 out of 4 if you think we have a 70% chance of winning each game, which we obviously don't. What you're saying makes sense!
 

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