Field of 68 Breakdown Heading Into Major Conference Tournaments

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SelectionSunday

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The ACC Tournament begins this morning with three 1st-round games, so let's put together a "cheat sheet" for the glorious (and ulcer-inducing) 6 days leading up to Selection Sunday. Today is all about Auto Bids, Locks, Almost Theres, Bubble Ins, & Bubble Outs.

Five days shy of the bracket reveal, I have 53 of the 68 tournament bids accounted for. There are 29 teams vying for the remaining 15 at-large bids. Four of those (Oklahoma, Iowa, Syracuse, Minnesota) I consider in excellent shape for a bid. A good chunk of the others have very weak cases, but they're still in the running because the bubble isn't running at peak performance this season, largely due to the A-10, Pac 12, and to a lesser extent Mountain West having down seasons.

Current NET ranking is noted in parentheses.

Automatic Bids/Highest Remaining Seed In Conference Tournament (32) (ALL CAPS bold/italic denotes already earned auto bid)
Gonzaga (1)
Virginia (2)
Houston (4)
Michigan State (8)
LSU (13)
WOFFORD (14)
Buffalo (16)
Nevada (18)
Kansas State (24)
Villanova (25)
VCU (31)
Washington (38)
MURRAY STATE (43)
New Mexico State (46)
LIBERTY (59)
Hofstra (71)
UC-Irvine (75)
Vermont (81)
Old Dominion (98)
Montana (124)
Georgia State (127)
Harvard (132)
Colgate (135)
Wright State (140)
Omaha (172)
GARDNER-WEBB (173)
Sam Houston State (174)
BRADLEY (177)
IONA (203)
Prairie View A&M (211)
Saint Francis-PA (250)
Norfolk State (252)

Locks (21)
Duke (3)
Kentucky (5)
Tennessee (6)
North Carolina (7)
Texas Tech (9)
Michigan (10)
Virginia Tech (11)
Purdue (12)
Wisconsin (15)
Auburn (17)
Florida State (19)
Kansas (20)
Mississippi State (21)
Louisville (22)
Iowa State (23)
Maryland (26)
Cincinnati (27)
UCF (28)
Marquette (29)
Ole Miss (34)
Baylor (36)

Almost There -- Likely Already In, But 1 More Win Would Cinch It (4)
Oklahoma (40)
Iowa (42)
Syracuse (44)
Minnesota (56)

Bubble In For Now (11)
Utah State (30)
Florida (33)
Clemson (35)
Belmont (45) -- Last 4 In
Temple (50)
Indiana (51) -- Last 4 In
Creighton (54)
Alabama (57) -- Last 4 In
Seton Hall (62)
Saint John's (66) -- Last 4 In
Arizona State (67)

Bubble Out For Now (14)
NC State (32) -- First 4 Out
Texas (39) -- First 4 Out
Furman (41)
TCU (47) -- First 4 Out
Lipscomb (48)
Memphis (53)
Ohio State (55)
NC-Greensboro (58)
Oregon (61)
Arkansas (64)
Dayton (65)
Xavier (70)
Providence (74)
Georgetown (76) -- First 4 Out

The following bubble or potential teams own victories over the 6 automatic qualifiers who've already clinched their spot in the Field of 68. These also are known as "wins vs. the field". If you're a bubble team, it never hurts to own a couple of these.

Alabama beat Liberty.
Alabama beat Murray State.
Belmont won @ Murray State
Furman beat Gardner-Webb.
Georgetown beat Liberty.
Lipscomb won @ Liberty.
Oklahoma beat Wofford.
VCU beat Gardner-Webb.
VCU beat Iona.
 
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Thank you for this.

A victory over Penn State will make my selection sunday a lot less anxious for me. I'm still nervous right now.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
Thank you for this.

A victory over Penn State will make my selection sunday a lot less anxious for me. I'm still nervous right now.
Click to expand...

As am I, though it's going to take quite a few bid-steals to put them in a truly sweaty spot.

Gophers need to take care of it themselves Thursday night.
 

Thanks as always for the information SelectionSunday. Tons of information recently on the site. Admittedly not as big a follower of all the analytics as you and others, but if I had to break it down in a best case scenario for the Gophers.....what would I be missing?

1. Nobody comes out of nowhere in the big four conferences to steal a bid (ACC/Big 12/Big Ten/SEC).
2. No sustained runs for Syracuse, NC State, or Clemson in the ACC.
3. No sustained runs for Texas or TCU in the Big 12.
4. No sustained runs for Ohio State or Indiana in the Big Ten.
5. No sustained run for Florida in the SEC.
6. Houston, UCF, or Cincinnati wins the American. No sustained run for Temple.
7. Marquette, Villanova, or Seton Hall wins the Big East. No sustained run for St. John's.
8. Nevada or Utah State wins the Mountain West.
9. Washington go ahead and win the Pac 12. No sustained run for Arizona State.
10. Gonzaga win the WCC.
11. Buffalo win the MAC.
12. Wofforn win the Southern. (GOOD)
13. VCU win the Atlantic 10.
14. Murray State or Belmont win the Ohio Valley (GOOD). Interesting to watch this one.

I realize not everything needs to or will fall our way, but trying to figure out from a rooting interest perspective. Thanks!

Anything else to keep an eye on?
 

golfing18now said:
Thanks as always for the information SelectionSunday. Tons of information recently on the site. Admittedly not as big a follower of all the analytics as you and others, but if I had to break it down in a best case scenario for the Gophers.....what would I be missing?

1. Nobody comes out of nowhere in the big four conferences to steal a bid (ACC/Big 12/Big Ten/SEC).
2. No sustained runs for Syracuse, NC State, or Clemson in the ACC.
3. No sustained runs for Texas or TCU in the Big 12.
4. No sustained runs for Ohio State or Indiana in the Big Ten.
5. No sustained run for Florida in the SEC.
6. Houston, UCF, or Cincinnati wins the American. No sustained run for Temple.
7. Marquette, Villanova, or Seton Hall wins the Big East. No sustained run for St. John's.
8. Nevada or Utah State wins the Mountain West.
9. Washington go ahead and win the Pac 12. No sustained run for Arizona State.
10. Gonzaga win the WCC.
11. Buffalo win the MAC.
12. Wofforn win the Southern. (GOOD)
13. VCU win the Atlantic 10.
14. Murray State or Belmont win the Ohio Valley (GOOD). Interesting to watch this one.

I realize not everything needs to or will fall our way, but trying to figure out from a rooting interest perspective. Thanks!

Anything else to keep an eye on?
Click to expand...

That's a pretty dang good list. Not much to add to that.

I would add. ..

when you're a potential bubble team, I like to have what I call "tack on" wins to the resume, wins over teams that earn automatic bids. The Gophers can get one tonight when Omaha plays North Dakota State (Go Mavericks!). And if Washington doesn't win the Pac 12 Tournament (though that would hurt all bubble teams), we should hope for the next best thing, Utah to win it. Utes are capable of that.
 


Hodger, your analysis can't be argued (certainly by me) but this looks like the weakest bubble I've ever seen. I know Oklahoma and TCU have some big wins, but their overall numbers don't scream NCAA worthy to me.

I'm glad you have Texas out. I've seen a few who still have them in. Do you think a win against Kansas gets them back in?

I'm looking forward with interest to the reactions of the talking heads when a handful of under .500 conference record teams get in. Righteous indignation will fill the airwaves, but with more conference games and the made for TV NC games, this is where we're headed. TCU and Indiana might be the poster children for the new way.
 

SelectionSunday said:
As am I, though it's going to take quite a few bid-steals to put them in a truly sweaty spot.

Gophers need to take care of it themselves Thursday night.
Click to expand...

When is the last time we were in contention for a spot but ended up on the wrong side of the bubble? Last time I can remember was 95-96. Was there a year with Tubby where bubble popped on selection sunday?
 

Holy Man said:
Hodger, your analysis can't be argued (certainly by me) but this looks like the weakest bubble I've ever seen. I know Oklahoma and TCU have some big wins, but their overall numbers don't scream NCAA worthy to me.

I'm glad you have Texas out. I've seen a few who still have them in. Do you think a win against Kansas gets them back in?

I'm looking forward with interest to the reactions of the talking heads when a handful of under .500 conference record teams get in. Righteous indignation will fill the airwaves, but with more conference games and the made for TV NC games, this is where we're headed. TCU and Indiana might be the poster children for the new way.
Click to expand...

There are a lot of resumes this year that scream "NIT", but quite a few of those are going to get in. Just the way it is this year.

My gut feeling on Texas, but don't hold me to it? Longhorns need to win 2 games. Definitely out with quarterfinal loss to Jayhawks.

I'm actually not buying all the hate for Indiana. Yes, Hoosiers have lost A LOT of games, but the quality of their wins are so much better than the other under .500s in conference, the TCUs and Ohio States of the bubble world. I will have no problem putting the Hoosiers in the field if they simply beat Ohio State. 18-15 (assuming a loss to MSU) with a pair of wins over MSU, a win over Marquette, a win over Louisville, a win over Wisconsin. I just don't get hung up on conference record.

Not to mention, if Indiana beats Ohio State (which I think will cinch a bid for the Hoosiers), the Gophers pick up another "win vs. the field". Last thing in the world Gophers want is for OSU to beat Indiana.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
There are a lot of resumes this year that scream "NIT", but quite a few of those are going to get in. Just the way it is this year.

My gut feeling on Texas, but don't hold me to it? Longhorns need to win 2 games. Definitely out with quarterfinal loss to Jayhawks.

I'm actually not buying all the hate for Indiana. Yes, Hoosiers have lost A LOT of games, but the quality of their wins are so much better than the other under .500s in conference, the TCUs and Ohio States of the bubble world. I will have no problem putting the Hoosiers in the field if they simply beat Ohio State. 18-15 (assuming a loss to MSU) with a pair of wins over MSU, a win over Marquette, a win over Louisville, a win over Wisconsin. Not to mention, if Indiana beats Ohio State (which I think will cinch a bid for the Hoosiers), the Gophers pick up another "win vs. the field". Last thing in the world Gophers want is for OSU to beat Indiana.
Click to expand...

Excellent. I know where my allegiances are at 11:00 on Thursday. It doesn't seem to be talked about as much as they used to, but I think the Hoosiers could make a case "in the room" of being devastated by injuries at mid-season. I thought a healthy IU would be a much tougher battle than they gave us. You read that game a lot better than I did.

Cheering for IU while sitting between two Boilers fans won't be easy, but I will do it. Will you be there in time for all Thursday games?
 



SelectionSunday said:
There are a lot of resumes this year that scream "NIT", but quite a few of those are going to get in. Just the way it is this year.

My gut feeling on Texas, but don't hold me to it? Longhorns need to win 2 games. Definitely out with quarterfinal loss to Jayhawks.

I'm actually not buying all the hate for Indiana. Yes, Hoosiers have lost A LOT of games, but the quality of their wins are so much better than the other under .500s in conference, the TCUs and Ohio States of the bubble world. I will have no problem putting the Hoosiers in the field if they simply beat Ohio State. 18-15 (assuming a loss to MSU) with a pair of wins over MSU, a win over Marquette, a win over Louisville, a win over Wisconsin. Not to mention, if Indiana beats Ohio State (which I think will cinch a bid for the Hoosiers), the Gophers pick up another "win vs. the field". Last thing in the world Gophers want is for OSU to beat Indiana.
Click to expand...

You make a great case for Indiana. With the bubble so weak, the big time wins they have puts them in a great spot. It shows they can compete with really good teams, which is what the committee wants for the tournament.
 

Holy Man said:
Excellent. I know where my allegiances are at 11:00 on Thursday. It doesn't seem to be talked about as much as they used to, but I think the Hoosiers could make a case "in the room" of being devastated by injuries at mid-season. I thought a healthy IU would be a much tougher battle than they gave us. You read that game a lot better than I did.

Cheering for IU while sitting between two Boilers fans won't be easy, but I will do it. Will you be there in time for all Thursday games?
Click to expand...

Yep, skipping Weakling Wednesday this year, but will be there bright & early Thursday, Chicago traffic willing!
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
When is the last time we were in contention for a spot but ended up on the wrong side of the bubble? Last time I can remember was 95-96. Was there a year with Tubby where bubble popped on selection sunday?
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2002 they had a darkhorse shot as well as 2014 when they got a #1 seed in the NIT.
 

Pretty much how I see it. 20 wins is psychologically significant and would be enough to tip it into the near lock category. I'll be sweating with an L to the Nits.
 



Ope3 said:
2002 they had a darkhorse shot as well as 2014 when they got a #1 seed in the NIT.
Click to expand...

thank you. Much appreciated. My memory is failing me. I've blended the Monson Tubby Pitino years together.
 
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JimmyJamesMD said:
When is the last time we were in contention for a spot but ended up on the wrong side of the bubble? Last time I can remember was 95-96. Was there a year with Tubby where bubble popped on selection sunday?
Click to expand...

Pitino's first year, 2014. We ended up the #1 seed in the NIT. I could live with it except Iowa got one of the last 4 spots despite losing something like 8 out of their last 9 games. (Sort of like this year but worse). 95-96 was an outright screw job. We should have been safely in.
 

howeda7 said:
Pitino's first year, 2014. We ended up the #1 seed in the NIT. I could live with it except Iowa got one of the last 4 spots despite losing something like 8 out of their last 9 games. (Sort of like this year but worse). 95-96 was an outright screw job. We should have been safely in.
Click to expand...

The Gophers won 7 of their last 10 in 1996, but it's urban legend they got screwed that season. 5 of those 7 wins were vs. bottom half teams, and the two they won (Penn State, Iowa) were at home.

5 Big Ten teams made the tournament that year, and the Gophers were 2-6 vs. those 5. And they didn't beat anybody of note in the non-conference slate.

1993, the year Gophers ended up winning the NIT? That's the year they got completely hosed. That's the one that made my blood boil. Resume was rock solid and got left out.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The Gophers won 7 of their last 10 in 1996, but it's urban legend they got screwed that season. 5 of those 7 wins were vs. bottom half teams, and the two they won (Penn State, Iowa) were at home.

5 Big Ten teams made the tournament that year, and the Gophers were 2-6 vs. those 5. And they didn't beat anybody of note in the non-conference slate.

1993, the year Gophers ended up winning the NIT? That's the year they got completely hosed. That's the one that made my blood boil. Resume was rock solid and got left out.
Click to expand...


If I recall correctly, that's the year the Boilers got in with Glenn Robinson and the same record, and Clem was pissed off and said, "It looks like I'll have to sell my soul for a superstar." Post selection grumbling then, but a harbinger of things to come.
 

howeda7 said:
Pitino's first year, 2014. We ended up the #1 seed in the NIT. I could live with it except Iowa got one of the last 4 spots despite losing something like 8 out of their last 9 games. (Sort of like this year but worse). 95-96 was an outright screw job. We should have been safely in.
Click to expand...

I think that was partially a make-up call for Iowa being passed over the season before while Minnesota and Illinois, who finished below Iowa with losing records in the conference, were selected.
 


SelectionSunday said:
The Gophers won 7 of their last 10 in 1996, but it's urban legend they got screwed that season. 5 of those 7 wins were vs. bottom half teams, and the two they won (Penn State, Iowa) were at home.

5 Big Ten teams made the tournament that year, and the Gophers were 2-6 vs. those 5. And they didn't beat anybody of note in the non-conference slate.

1993, the year Gophers ended up winning the NIT? That's the year they got completely hosed. That's the one that made my blood boil. Resume was rock solid and got left out.
Click to expand...

Perhaps. I just remember the Lunardi's of the day saying that if they went into Illinois and won on Lou Henson day, they would be a lock. And they did. Up to that point no team that finished .500 in the B1G had ever been left out of the 64 team field and 8-10 teams got in regularly. Also Clem let WCCO be there while they watched the Selection Show, which he never would have done if he thought they wouldn't make it, iMO.
 
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