"Field of 65" Projection (2/22/10)

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SelectionSunday

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The Gophers are back on the radar after two wins last week. Nice to hear the talking heads on ESPN giving them some love. Any NCAA Tournament scenario for the Gophers must include a win over Purdue on Wednesday. Playing a top-10 RPI team (playing for a #1 seed) on your home court late in February? That's the ultimate opportunity for a bubble team. If the Gophers pull it off, it's a win that will resonate a lot of extra "oomph" with the Selection Committee.

As we draw closer to Selection Sunday -- taking a broad view of the bubble -- 10-8 (with a win over Purdue) would give the Gophers a fighting chance, so long as they avoid a "bad loss" in Thursday's BTT play-in. Even moreso now than before, it's apparent 11-7 heading to Indy would seal up a bid. Considering the Gophers remaining schedule, I'll remain a realist. ... I'd settle for 10-8 with about a 50-50 chance (for an at-large) heading to Indy.

***Joe Lunardi and I have no differences at this point. We even have the same "Last 4 In".

*Denotes conference leader (in multiple-bid league) or would hold #1 seed in conference tournament

America East (1): Stony Brook (142)

ACC (7): *Duke (2), Wake Forest (21), Georgia Tech (33), Clemson (35), Maryland (36), Florida State (40), Virginia Tech (44)

Atlantic Sun (1): Campbell (179)

Atlantic 10 (5): Temple (14), Xavier (20), Rhode Island (26), *Richmond (27), Dayton (42)

Big East (7): *Syracuse (4), West Virginia (5), Villanova (8), Pitt (9), Georgetown (11), Louisville (30), Marquette (59)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (72)

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina (134)

Big 10 (5): *Purdue (7), Wisconsin (19), Michigan State (28), Ohio State (32), Illinois (71)

Big 12 (7): *Kansas (1), Kansas State (6), Texas A&M (12), Baylor (17), Texas (24), Oklahoma State (29), Missouri (39)

Big West (1): UCSB (97)

Colonial (2): Old Dominion (41), *Northeastern (70)

Conference USA (2): UAB (31), *UTEP (53)

Horizon (1): Butler (18)

Ivy (1): Cornell (49)

Metro Atlantic (1): Siena (37)

Mid-American (1): Kent State (54)

MEAC (1): Morgan State (115)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (16)

Mountain West (3): *New Mexico (10), BYU (22), UNLV (43)

Northeast (1): Robert Morris (154)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (77)

Pac 10 (1): Cal (23)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (257)

SEC (4): *Kentucky (3), Vanderbilt (13), Tennessee (15), Florida (52)

Southern (1): Charleston (99)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (74)

SWAC (1): Jackson State (220)

Summit (1): Oakland (67)

Sun Belt (1): Troy (146)

West Coast (2): *Gonzaga (25), St. Mary's (46)

WAC (1): Utah State (34)


Non-BCS At-Larges (9): Temple (14), Xavier (20), BYU (22), Rhode Island (26), UAB (31), Old Dominion (41), Dayton (42), UNLV (43), St. Mary's (46)

Last 4 In: Rhode Island (26), UAB (31), Dayton (42), St. Mary's (46)

First 4 Out: San Diego State (38), Connecticut (45), Arizona State (58), Mississippi State (65)

In the Mix (12): William & Mary (48), Wichita State (50), Seton Hall (51), Charlotte (55), Cincinnati (56), Washington (60), Memphis (61), Ole Miss (63), Louisiana Tech (64), South Florida (68), Minnesota (76), Saint Louis (82)

Next Field of 65 Projection: Monday, March 1
 

Playing a top-10 RPI team (playing for a #1 seed) on your home court late in February? That's the ultimate opportunity for a bubble team. If the Gophers pull it off, it's a win that will resonate a lot of extra "oomph" with the Selection Committee.
Click to expand...

This game has upset written all over. One team playing for everything the other playing with nothing to lose.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Considering the Gophers remaining schedule, I'll remain a realist. ... I'd settle for 10-8 with about a 50-50 chance (for an at-large) heading to Indy.
Click to expand...

Considering I gave up all hope a couple games back, I'll take it.
 

Joe Lunardi's Monday projection

Lunardi and I are almost in 100% agreement. We have the exact same at-large teams in the field, and our "last 4 in" are exactly the same. We differ on one of the "first 4 out" teams. ... he has Cincinnati, I have Arizona State.

Beat the Boliers on Wednesday and I suspect the Gophers will reappear on Lunardi's Friday projection, perhaps as high as one of the first 4 out.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
 

SelectionSunday said:
Lunardi and I are almost in 100% agreement. We have the exact same at-large teams in the field, and our "last 4 in" are exactly the same. We differ on one of the "first 4 out" teams. ... he has Cincinnati, I have Arizona State.

Beat the Boliers on Wednesday and I suspect the Gophers will reappear on Lunardi's Friday projection, perhaps as high as one of the first 4 out.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Click to expand...

Have you submitted a resume to the Star Tribune? You beat Linardi last year and agree with him now. I'd be more interested in seeing a blog piece about this then most things Doogie has submitted recently. No offense to Doogie.
 


What happens if any of the following lose their conference tournament? I assume Butler is a lock but how about the others? Murray State?

Horizon (1): Butler (18)

Ivy (1): Cornell (49)

Metro Atlantic (1): Siena (37)

Mid-American (1): Kent State (54)
 

Winnipegopher said:
What happens if any of the following lose their conference tournament? I assume Butler is a lock but how about the others? Murray State?

Horizon (1): Butler (18)

Ivy (1): Cornell (49)

Metro Atlantic (1): Siena (37)

Mid-American (1): Kent State (54)
Click to expand...

Butler is a lock no matter what. No issue with Cornell (no conference tourney.) Not sure about the other two. Sienna didn't help itself by getting beat fairly handily be Butler on Saturday, but they might still warrent an at-large. Kent State I doubt it.
 

Siena and Kent State are not getting at-larges. Butler would.
 

Thank you Howeda. It was a feather in my cap to best both Lunardi and Jerry Palm (CollegeRPI.com) last season with regards to the 34 at-larges. Last year was the first time I was able to do that. But it's like getting the final "E" in a game of H-O-R-S-E. Ya' gotta' prove it by doing it again (a second time).
 



Siena & Kent State (no), Cornell (a small chance)

At this point in time, among the non-Big 6 conferences, these are the squads all bubble teams will want to win their conference tourneys. Failure to do so could or will shrink the at-large pool:

Old Dominion (CAA)
UAB (Conference USA) -- has better resume than C-USA leading UTEP, so it'd be better to have UTEP in the at-large pool
Butler (Horizon)
Northern Iowa (MVC)
Gonzaga (WCC)
Utah State (WAC) -- I now think Utah State has a legit chance for at-large if it fails to win WAC tourney.

No way could it be justified giving Siena or Kent State an at-large if they don't win their conference tourney. Cornell? I'd at least give them the slightest of slight chances (especially if St. John's finishes strong), but they'd still be a longshot.
 

Campbell ??

Campbell ?? Isn't that a soup?

We are on the bubble and some school named for soup is in?

Whataworld.

:mad:
 

Campbell ??

Campbell ?? Isn't that a soup?

We are on the bubble and some school named for soup is in?

Whataworld.

:mad:
 




SelectionSunday said:
Cornell? I'd at least give them the slightest of slight chances (especially if St. John's finishes strong), but they'd still be a longshot.
Click to expand...

Doesn't Cornell pretty much have the Ivy locked up? I believe Princeton is the only one within a game and Cornell already beat them.
 

howeda7 said:
Doesn't Cornell pretty much have the Ivy locked up? I believe Princeton is the only one within a game and Cornell already beat them.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Cornell is a game up on Princeton, but they play each other once more...at Cornell. Cornell is much better, but who knows.
 


So what's the scoop with USC?

Are they just getting hammered because of the soft Pac-10? Or is it their multitude of bad losses?

Logged UNLV, St. Marys, and Tennessee victories out of the conference.

8-3 vs RPI top 100.

I realize their overall 78 RPI should only warrant fringe bubble at the moment, but that 8-3 record versus good teams is impressive. Just curious why that hasn't garnered them any attention. Suppose its the Pac 10 drag...
 

inflectionpoint said:
So what's the scoop with USC?

Are they just getting hammered because of the soft Pac-10? Or is it their multitude of bad losses?

Logged UNLV, St. Marys, and Tennessee victories out of the conference.

8-3 vs RPI top 100.

I realize their overall 78 RPI should only warrant fringe bubble at the moment, but that 8-3 record versus good teams is impressive. Just curious why that hasn't garnered them any attention. Suppose its the Pac 10 drag...
Click to expand...
USC imposed sanctions on themselves early in the season banning them from any postseason play.
 



With all due respect to Mike Montgomery's comments, the Pac 10 is way down, but I think it'll be one of the most intriguing conference tournaments. There's not a single team that can feel safe about having a NCAA bid locked up. I think every team legitimately has a chance to win the tournament, with the exception of Oregon.
 

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