"Field of 65" Projection #1 (12/18/09)

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SelectionSunday

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Will post these every couple weeks until late February, then each Monday (or thereabouts) until Selection Sunday. Please note: later in the season, I will base the selections entirely on results up to that point in time; I will not project future results. However, because we're so early in the season, the first couple projections will be a combination of "who've you beat" and a "whole lotta' how I think teams will do."

Obviously, the first couple will look a little on the wild side until conference seasons settle in & the RPI truly starts taking shape. A team must be in the top 100 of the RPI to be considered for at-large selection.

For the at-large selections, top-50 wins are listed. Constructive comments and/or critiques are encouraged.

Automatic Qualifiers (31) -- conference leader or best RPI
America East: Stony Brook (117)
ACC: Boston College (106)
Atlantic Sun: Belmont (116)
Atlantic 10: Temple (5)
Big East: West Virginia (3)
Big Sky: Montana State (127)
Big South: Radford (58)
Big 10: Purdue (6)
Big 12: Kansas State (1)
Big West: Long Beach State (33)
Colonial: William & Mary (19)
Conference USA: Southern Miss (8)
Horizon: Green Bay (99)
Ivy: Cornell (22)
Metro Atlantic: Niagara (103)
MAC: Eastern Michigan (59)
MEAC: Morgan State (124)
Missouri Valley: Missouri State (25)
Mountain West: New Mexico (16)
Northeast: Long Island (168)
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay (63)
Pac 10: Cal (10)
Patriot: Army (120)
SEC: Ole Miss (21)
Southern: Charleston (160)
Southland: Southeastern Louisiana (114)
SWAC: Texas Southern (213)
Summit: IUPUI (72)
Sun Belt: North Texas (95)
West Coast: St. Mary's (31)
WAC: Louisiana Tech (82)

At-Large Bids (34) -- by conference order, then RPI
1. Duke (2): Connecticut, St. John's
2. Florida State (44)
3. Clemson (45): Butler, Long Beach State, South Carolina
4. North Carolina (71): Michigan State
5. Dayton (20)
6. Rhode Island (39)
7. St. John's (4): Temple
8. Syracuse (7): Cal, Cornell, Florida
9. Connecticut (9): Harvard, William & Mary
10. Villanova (11): Dayton, Ole Miss
11. Georgetown (12): Butler, Temple, Washington
12. Seton Hall (53): Cornell
13. Wisconsin (27): Duke, Oakland
14. Michigan State (49): Oakland
15. Northwestern (54): NC State
16. Ohio State (60): Cal, Florida State
17. Illinois (96): Clemson, Vanderbilt
18. Kansas (13): Oakland
19. Texas (15): Long Beach State, Pitt, Western Carolina
20. Texas A&M (14): Clemson
21. Texas Tech (28): Washington
22. Oklahoma State (38)
23. VCU (24): Rhode Island, Richmond
24. Tulsa (32): Oklahoma State
25. Memphis (69): Oakland
26. Butler (29)
27. Northern Iowa (30)
28. UNLV (35)
29. BYU (85)
30. Washington (17)
31. Kentucky (23): Connecticut
32. Tennessee (37)
33. Florida (46): Florida State, Michigan State
34. Gonzaga (51): Wisconsin

Multiple-Bid Leagues (12): Big East (7), Big 10 (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Conference USA (3), Mountain West (3), Colonial (2), Missouri Valley (2), Pac 10 (2), West Coast (2)

Last 4 In: Oklahoma State (38), Rhode Island (39), Memphis (69), BYU (85)

First 4 Out: Richmond (34), Vanderbilt (43), Wake Forest (73), Georgia Tech (76)

Non-BCS At-Larges (10): Dayton (20), VCU (24), Butler (29), Northern Iowa (30), Tulsa (32), UNLV (35), Rhode Island (39), Gonzaga (51), Memphis (69), BYU (85)

In the Mix (20): San Diego State (26), South Carolina (40), Harvard (41), Xavier (42), NC State (47), Pitt (48), Western Kentucky (52), UAB (55), Virginia Tech (56), Mississippi State (61), Maryland (62), Portland (64), Minnesota (66), Marquette (70), Charlotte (74), Cincinnati (75), Washington State (80), Miami-Florida (84), Baylor (92), Alabama (93)

Next Projection: Monday, Dec. 28
 

Am I reading this right and you're not thinking Kentucky will win the SEC?

I'm about ready to think they're headed to the Final Four.
 

Pretty sure he has Ole Miss as the SEC champ because they have the best RPI right now, as he said.

Kentucky looks pretty good, but they've still had two real close games against bad teams. Although the national media is definitely prepared to anoint them.
 


Sure, you can nail all 65 on Selection Sunday, big deal.:)

Let's see how many you get on December 18.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Will post these every couple weeks until late February, then each Monday (or thereabouts) until Selection Sunday. Please note: later in the season, I will base the selections entirely on results up to that point in time; I will not project future results. However, because we're so early in the season, the first couple projections will be a combination of "who've you beat" and a "whole lotta' how I think teams will do."

Obviously, the first couple will look a little on the wild side until conference seasons settle in & the RPI truly starts taking shape. A team must be in the top 100 of the RPI to be considered for at-large selection.

For the at-large selections, top-50 wins are listed. Constructive comments and/or critiques are encouraged.

Automatic Qualifiers (31) -- conference leader or best RPI
America East: Stony Brook (117)
ACC: Boston College (106)
Atlantic Sun: Belmont (116)
Atlantic 10: Temple (5)
Big East: West Virginia (3)
Big Sky: Montana State (127)
Big South: Radford (58)
Big 10: Purdue (6)
Big 12: Kansas State (1)
Big West: Long Beach State (33)
Colonial: William & Mary (19)
Conference USA: Southern Miss (8)
Horizon: Green Bay (99)
Ivy: Cornell (22)
Metro Atlantic: Niagara (103)
MAC: Eastern Michigan (59)
MEAC: Morgan State (124)
Missouri Valley: Missouri State (25)
Mountain West: New Mexico (16)
Northeast: Long Island (168)
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay (63)
Pac 10: Cal (10)
Patriot: Army (120)
SEC: Ole Miss (21)
Southern: Charleston (160)
Southland: Southeastern Louisiana (114)
SWAC: Texas Southern (213)
Summit: IUPUI (72)
Sun Belt: North Texas (95)
West Coast: St. Mary's (31)
WAC: Louisiana Tech (82)

At-Large Bids (34) -- by conference order, then RPI
1. Duke (2): Connecticut, St. John's
2. Florida State (44)
3. Clemson (45): Butler, Long Beach State, South Carolina
4. North Carolina (71): Michigan State
5. Dayton (20)
6. Rhode Island (39)
7. St. John's (4): Temple
8. Syracuse (7): Cal, Cornell, Florida
9. Connecticut (9): Harvard, William & Mary
10. Villanova (11): Dayton, Ole Miss
11. Georgetown (12): Butler, Temple, Washington
12. Seton Hall (53): Cornell
13. Wisconsin (27): Duke, Oakland
14. Michigan State (49): Oakland
15. Northwestern (54): NC State
16. Ohio State (60): Cal, Florida State
17. Illinois (96): Clemson, Vanderbilt
18. Kansas (13): Oakland
19. Texas (15): Long Beach State, Pitt, Western Carolina
20. Texas A&M (14): Clemson
21. Texas Tech (28): Washington
22. Oklahoma State (38)
23. VCU (24): Rhode Island, Richmond
24. Tulsa (32): Oklahoma State
25. Memphis (69): Oakland
26. Butler (29)
27. Northern Iowa (30)
28. UNLV (35)
29. BYU (85)
30. Washington (17)
31. Kentucky (23): Connecticut
32. Tennessee (37)
33. Florida (46): Florida State, Michigan State
34. Gonzaga (51): Wisconsin

Multiple-Bid Leagues (12): Big East (7), Big 10 (6), Big 12 (6), ACC (5), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Conference USA (3), Mountain West (3), Colonial (2), Missouri Valley (2), Pac 10 (2), West Coast (2)

Last 4 In: Oklahoma State (38), Rhode Island (39), Memphis (69), BYU (85)

First 4 Out: Richmond (34), Vanderbilt (43), Wake Forest (73), Georgia Tech (76)

Non-BCS At-Larges (10): Dayton (20), VCU (24), Butler (29), Northern Iowa (30), Tulsa (32), UNLV (35), Rhode Island (39), Gonzaga (51), Memphis (69), BYU (85)

In the Mix (20): San Diego State (26), South Carolina (40), Harvard (41), Xavier (42), NC State (47), Pitt (48), Western Kentucky (52), UAB (55), Virginia Tech (56), Mississippi State (61), Maryland (62), Portland (64), Minnesota (66), Marquette (70), Charlotte (74), Cincinnati (75), Washington State (80), Miami-Florida (84), Baylor (92), Alabama (93)

Next Projection: Monday, Dec. 28
Click to expand...

Northwestern? That'll be a first, LITERALLY. NWU has never made NCAA field.
 


I'm very aware Northwestern has never made the NCAA field, but there's a first for everything. Certainly the Wildcats have their work cut out for them.
 

GV, I'll do my best, but don't expect a repeat of last season. It's only happened twice in 18 years.

I'll really get put to the test when the field is expanded to 96 in 2013.
 



2013

Please tell me that 96 in 2013 is your cynical assesment of the NCAA on a money grab, and not a done deal. I know they talked, but did they really make that decision? They will destroy the tournament if they do that. Killing the goose that lays golden eggs is a bad idea.
 

Holy Man, It's my cynical assessment, but I trust John Feinstein. He's flat out against expansion like most everyone else is, but he says it's going to happen in 2013 (after the current TV contract runs out) because the coaches want it. The coaches are already firing their guns. The biggest name (and the biggest dink) of them all has already started the campaigning. ... Coach K. Look for Boeheim and the rest of their coaching minions to to follow suit shortly. The coaches are going to fire up the rhetoric very soon.
 

I'm gonna predict Harvard noses out Cornell for the Ivy League berth. Seriously.

(I'm rooting for 'em 'cause they're the Drake of the East. Not seriously.)
 

SelectionSunday said:
Holy Man, It's my cynical assessment, but I trust John Feinstein. He's flat out against expansion like most everyone else is, but he says it's going to happen in 2013 (after the current TV contract runs out) because the coaches want it. The coaches are already firing their guns. The biggest name (and the biggest dink) of them all has already started the campaigning. ... Coach K. Look for Boeheim and the rest of their coaching minions to to follow suit shortly. The coaches are going to fire up the rhetoric very soon.
Click to expand...

Tubby Smith was campaigning for expansion last week on his radio program.
 




"Lets get a "Field of 96" thread started."

Am not looking forward to the day I have to figure out 65 at-large bids as opposed to the current 34.
 

Rick,

This a long ways off, but I could see a scenario where the Ivy League has a chance for an at-large bid, especially if Cornell is not the automatic qualifier. Cornell already has two decent road wins (Alabama and Drexel), and they can get a couple more potential quality wins at LaSalle, perhaps at St. John's (in a Christmas Tournament) and (the biggie) at Kansas. However, both surely will have to kick butt (probably go 13-1 with a season split) in the Ivy League. Not probable, but possible.
 

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