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bailee88

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How good can we truly expect to be if we get the best players from MN and 3-4 star players from other states. (FL, TX, OH)
 

As good as Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.?

Are you saying we should shut down the program?
 

As a first step...in a few years...

good enough to shed the "bottom feeder" role and migrate into the BT "mid-tier" on a regular basis.
 

I guess I don't completely understand the question, or perhaps don't understand if there are any underlying tones to the question-but I think if we can get the top 4-5 players from MN each year, or at least the majority of the ones capable of being impact players, and then surround them with highly rated players from the more talent-rich states, the sky is the limit.

The same could be said if we don't recruit any MN kids and get a lot of 3-4-5 star kids from other states. However, I think the intrinsic value of recruiting good in-state kids goes beyond their ratings and talent and would make for a better class than an equally rated class with no in-state kids.

This is the route taken by some successful upper Midwest teams over the years-Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin. I would say that our high schools produce at least as much talent as those states.
 

I am not saying we should shut down the program. I am a very positive Gopher supporter. I supported Mason 100%, and now Brewster 100%. I am just asking a legitimate question. What are realistic expectations for the football program? It requires so many good players to make a team good and I am not sure Minnesota produces enough top tier players to be successful on a consistent basis.
For example if the Gopher basketball team gets 2 top 100 player out of Minnesota that makes up 1/6th of their roster or about 16%. For the football team to do the same that would require the state to produce abot 14 top 100 players.(16% of the 85 man roster) That is assuming that all those players choose the Gophers.
 


bailee88 said:
I am not saying we should shut down the program. I am a very positive Gopher supporter. I supported Mason 100%, and now Brewster 100%. I am just asking a legitimate question. What are realistic expectations for the football program? It requires so many good players to make a team good and I am not sure Minnesota produces enough top tier players to be successful on a consistent basis.
For example if the Gopher basketball team gets 2 top 100 player out of Minnesota that makes up 1/6th of their roster or about 16%. For the football team to do the same that would require the state to produce abot 14 top 100 players.(16% of the 85 man roster) That is assuming that all those players choose the Gophers.
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Minnesota produces just as many as Wisconsin and more than Iowa. There are PLENTY of good programs hailing from states that produce low amounts of top tier DI talent. Boise State anyone? Plus, Minnesota has one other big advantage... no other DI program within the border. Even Iowa has other DI programs in their state to recruit against. I don't think it is realistic to expect a dynasty, but it is is very realistic to have the kind of program that regularly finishes in the top 5 in the Big 10 and contends for a Big 10 title every few years.
 


The problem Minnesota has is that it does not develop talent. Sure, maybe Brewster will turn Carter into an AA and that's great but he came in with those expectations. The key to building a consistent program in the B10 is being able to develop those underrated guys that come in, like Decker, year in and year out to fill our the rest of the roster. You look at programs like Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin and they have less star talent than Minnesota nearly every year. The difference is the coaches a these programs are willing to bring in a few 1 and 2 star kids in each recruiting class from that state and work and develop them. Every year Iowa has at least one guy who starts as a senior for the first time and Ferentz is able to get them at least a shot at the NFL if they aren't drafted, which they usually are. Brewster needs to look deeper at Minnesota and maybe even the Dakotas and take a few kids with offers only from lower level teams. Even if he is only able to produce one or two all-B10 players a year it still gives you depth and confidence to go along with your highest recruits from each class.
 

mittens22 said:
The problem Minnesota has is that it does not develop talent. Sure, maybe Brewster will turn Carter into an AA and that's great but he came in with those expectations. The key to building a consistent program in the B10 is being able to develop those underrated guys that come in, like Decker, year in and year out to fill our the rest of the roster. You look at programs like Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin and they have less star talent than Minnesota nearly every year. The difference is the coaches a these programs are willing to bring in a few 1 and 2 star kids in each recruiting class from that state and work and develop them. Every year Iowa has at least one guy who starts as a senior for the first time and Ferentz is able to get them at least a shot at the NFL if they aren't drafted, which they usually are. Brewster needs to look deeper at Minnesota and maybe even the Dakotas and take a few kids with offers only from lower level teams. Even if he is only able to produce one or two all-B10 players a year it still gives you depth and confidence to go along with your highest recruits from each class.
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So you are saying that Brewster should pass up a few recruits he has ranked higher for a few lower level recruits from Minnesota or the Dakotas to give "depth and confidence to go along with (our) highest rated recruits from each class?" I'm confused how this will help.
 



I agree with some of what mittens is talking about. There have been some lower-ranked MN and Dakota players the last few years that we have not recruited and ended up excelling at a lower level, and some even have made it to the NFL (Tyler Roehl, Craig Dahl, Ryan Hoag, Kyle Minett, etc.). I think it is too early to say that Brewster's staff can't develop players. You could say that Nate Triplett or even Eric Decker are guys who were developed by Brew's staff even though they were recruited by Mason.

If we get to the end of our recruting and have some scholarships to fill, I would be all for offering players like this. But for every Decker, Barber, Eslinger, etc, there are probably 10 lower-ranked players that don't ever pan out. I think Brew is trying to create a system for developing some players like this through preferred walk-ons. Over the next couple years I think we will see how well the staff can develop these lower-ranked players.
 

bailee88 said:
I am not saying we should shut down the program. I am a very positive Gopher supporter. I supported Mason 100%, and now Brewster 100%. I am just asking a legitimate question. What are realistic expectations for the football program? It requires so many good players to make a team good and I am not sure Minnesota produces enough top tier players to be successful on a consistent basis.
For example if the Gopher basketball team gets 2 top 100 player out of Minnesota that makes up 1/6th of their roster or about 16%. For the football team to do the same that would require the state to produce abot 14 top 100 players.(16% of the 85 man roster) That is assuming that all those players choose the Gophers.
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Your comparison between football and basketball isn't fair because football and basketball have different sized rosters. Basketball has 13 scholarships and 5 starters whereas football has 85 schollies and 22 starters (24 if you count specialists). If you're going to use the top 100 for basketball you should be using the top 440 players for a comparable ratio in football (5 starters/top 100 = 22 starters/top 440).

To further illustrate the difference, only 3 states (California, Florida, and Texas) generally have 14 of the top 100 football players in the country and no football program pulls in 14 of the top 100 players.

After adjusting for what you seem to be trying to say, yes, based on homegrown talent it is easier for Minnesota basketball to compete nationally than it is for our football program.
 

I'm not saying that you should sacrifice Seantral Henderson for a 1A all state player from some little town. I'm saying that there should be a larger focus on bringing in a few under the radar guys every year in hopes that one out of five will develop into a starter. Decker is a good example of this and it seems that the teams I mentioned before are able to to this very well. This may start with evaluations made by the coaches, Brewster is looking at the big time recruits all around the country and in Minnesota but maybe he should look at the 6'4'' 210 running back from Calendonia who was all-state a few years ago. Everyone said he wasn't big enough to play in the B10 at his size and that he'd have to get faster to play OLB. Iowa offers him and turns him into a DT. Iowa takes the Karl Klug type player because even if they don't start there is a chance they'll be able to develop him by his senior year.
 

GopherBeef said:
I agree with some of what mittens is talking about. There have been some lower-ranked MN and Dakota players the last few years that we have not recruited and ended up excelling at a lower level, and some even have made it to the NFL (Tyler Roehl, Craig Dahl, Ryan Hoag, Kyle Minett, etc.). I think it is too early to say that Brewster's staff can't develop players. You could say that Nate Triplett or even Eric Decker are guys who were developed by Brew's staff even though they were recruited by Mason.

If we get to the end of our recruting and have some scholarships to fill, I would be all for offering players like this. But for every Decker, Barber, Eslinger, etc, there are probably 10 lower-ranked players that don't ever pan out. I think Brew is trying to create a system for developing some players like this through preferred walk-ons. Over the next couple years I think we will see how well the staff can develop these lower-ranked players.
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I agree that it is too early to judge the development abilities of the staff. You can monitor progress of players to try to evaluate the developmental abilities of the staff but the best analysis is to evaluate the difference between a group of seniors at graduation from where they were when they came in to the program.

And I personally don't agree with the philosophy of offering a few low rated Minnesota kids because they are from Minnesota if we can get better athletes elsewhere. A preferred walk-on program is the perfect system for the recruits that appear borderline D-I. Not to knock Minnesota football but our state doesn't have the same focus as places like Texas, Florida, etc so our athletes don't receive the same coaching, weight training, etc. We are notorious for having late bloomers (underdeveloped players that blossom with proper coaching & weight training) and it makes the job of a coach/scout that much harder to determine which players should get scholarships. Nebraska is the same way and they had the wisdom to develop an extensive walk-on program years ago to help them land late bloomers without the risk of wasting scholarships.
 



Kids in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska grow up wanting to be players for those teams. I don't know if that can be said here with all the changes. We need to ride Brewster as long as possible or cut the chord now. MN is lacking tradition. 40 years ago is no longer a tradition. It needs to be built again. Kids in our neighboring state bleed their colors, we need that here.

I played on very good HS teams and all my teammates bleed their MIAC/NCC/Northern Sun Colors first and then think Gophers. Our best tradition going is a DIII team and a DII defending national champion.
 

mittens22 said:
I'm not saying that you should sacrifice Seantral Henderson for a 1A all state player from some little town. I'm saying that there should be a larger focus on bringing in a few under the radar guys every year in hopes that one out of five will develop into a starter. Decker is a good example of this and it seems that the teams I mentioned before are able to to this very well. This may start with evaluations made by the coaches, Brewster is looking at the big time recruits all around the country and in Minnesota but maybe he should look at the 6'4'' 210 running back from Calendonia who was all-state a few years ago. Everyone said he wasn't big enough to play in the B10 at his size and that he'd have to get faster to play OLB. Iowa offers him and turns him into a DT. Iowa takes the Karl Klug type player because even if they don't start there is a chance they'll be able to develop him by his senior year.
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We have camps to evaluate these type of players. We have a preferred walk-on program for those players that are still considered borderline or not quite worthy of a scholarship but have good development potential.

For every under the radar player that blossoms there are far more that never make it in to the two-deep and probably weren't the best use of a scholarship. Close up evaluation (camps) helps coaches make the best informed decision but it is all a prediction of how much someone is going to grow and develop.
 

mittens22 said:
The problem Minnesota has is that it does not develop talent. Sure, maybe Brewster will turn Carter into an AA and that's great but he came in with those expectations. The key to building a consistent program in the B10 is being able to develop those underrated guys that come in, like Decker, year in and year out to fill our the rest of the roster. You look at programs like Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisconsin and they have less star talent than Minnesota nearly every year. The difference is the coaches a these programs are willing to bring in a few 1 and 2 star kids in each recruiting class from that state and work and develop them. Every year Iowa has at least one guy who starts as a senior for the first time and Ferentz is able to get them at least a shot at the NFL if they aren't drafted, which they usually are. Brewster needs to look deeper at Minnesota and maybe even the Dakotas and take a few kids with offers only from lower level teams. Even if he is only able to produce one or two all-B10 players a year it still gives you depth and confidence to go along with your highest recruits from each class.
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Um, that bolded line is incorrect. Other than the past two years of recruiting, the Gophers have not had more "star power" than those programs. If you use the rivals rankings, here are the average star ratings of those four programs the past 6 seasons:

MN - 2.64
WI - 2.80
IA - 2.75
NE - 3.16

The past two years have been much better, but those players are still young. If you take out the last two seasons (only including 04-07) it looks like this:

MN - 2.43
WI - 2.75
IA - 2.87
NE - 3.19

Iowa had some pretty good classes in 05, 06, and 07. That's a big reason why they are doing so well right now.

Look at our 05 and 06 rankings. These are our juniors and seniors right now. Looks like there are some of these low rated in-state guys there.

We just have to be patient. I know it sucks that we keep losing to our rivals. I really believe that if we can consistantly bring in the classes we have the past two years, we will be a good program that will compete for BT championships.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Um, that bolded line is incorrect. Other than the past two years of recruiting, the Gophers have not had more "star power" than those programs. If you use the rivals rankings, here are the average star ratings of those four programs the past 6 seasons:

QUOTE]

I think he meant in state stars.
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Many MN kids will continue to leave. A majority of kids want to move away from home to attend College. It's not just about football or athletics, but when you get an athletic scholarship and your costs are covered, even more kids are likely to want to get out on their own and try a different part of the country. Plus, most D1 MN kids are from or near the metro, so they are ready to get away from Mom & Dad and see something else. Conversely, many WI, IA, NE, etc kids are not from large Metro areas. Not only are they less familiar with a large metro and not as eager to go abroad, but in some cases, moving to Iowa City, Madison, Lincoln, etc is like moving to the "big city" in those states.
 

To the OP, a program with good recruiting can only recruit so far over their percieved position. Thus if a team is considered to be a mid tier team (50th) they can only recruit so far above that with good recruiting, say 35th-ish. So it really becomes a process, after you build a team with the 35th best talent you can recruit teams at maybe the top 25 and so on.

How long that process takes depends on how quickly you're able to build your percieved program position, which is all about how well you do on the field. Thus in the end it takes both solid recruiting and coaching to reach the top.
 

GopherBeef said:
I agree with some of what mittens is talking about. There have been some lower-ranked MN and Dakota players the last few years that we have not recruited and ended up excelling at a lower level, and some even have made it to the NFL (Tyler Roehl, Craig Dahl, Ryan Hoag, Kyle Minett, etc.).'


I agree with your overall point GopherBeef, and that's that you recruit the best players possible. That said, your list of lower ranked players needs an asterisk. I know Tyler Roehl and played against him growing up and in high school. I can tell you for a fact the ONLY reason he panned out at the college level is because he took an absurd amount of steroids for his entire college career. I think at the lower D-1 level they don't test very often or at all, and NDSU players (once once intoxicated) were surprisingly open about their steroid use. In all sincerity Roehl wasn't even the most effective RB on his high school team (Nick Reinisch was, he went on to play at D3 Concordia).
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