Expectations for 2010

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I.M. Hippster

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Hello Gopher nation! I'm a Husker fan and I look forward to seeing the Big Red joining the Big 10 in 2011! I am not an expert on Gopher football, so I have some questions. What are your expectations for Minnesota this season? How do you feel about the job that Tim Brewster has done so far? From reading some posts on this board, I gather the defense is pretty solid, while the offense needs some work. Which players do you see having potential breakout years? Thank you.
 

I.M. Hippster said:
Hello Gopher nation! I'm a Husker fan and I look forward to seeing the Big Red joining the Big 10 in 2011! I am not an expert on Gopher football, so I have some questions. What are your expectations for Minnesota this season? How do you feel about the job that Tim Brewster has done so far? From reading some posts on this board, I gather the defense is pretty solid, while the offense needs some work. Which players do you see having potential breakout years? Thank you.
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1. I expect the team to be +/- 1 win from 6-6
2. Brewster gets an incomplete from me so far, once he displays how his recruits can do this season we can give him a more accurate grade. His game day coaching leaves some to be desired.
3. The defense is a huge question mark since there are so many new guys starting. We've seen spot duty from some that looked encouraging but it's hard to say how they will do as a unit.
4. WR McKnight and hopefully some guys on the Oline could step up, Tinsley on defense could also make a big impact.
 

I'll tell you my sleeper candidate, for a breakout year, is Jewhan Edwards. He's been solid but I expect him to blow up and be a monster on the D-line. Tinsley, will be recognized as one of the best linebackers in the B10, by the end of the year. I also expect either, Lair or Euree, to step up as the number two receiver on the team. I believe the defense will be good and constantly improving, the offense, will be competent, it'll show signs of becoming good but it'll be a year away.
 

I expect Minnesota to win more games than Nebraska. Maybe.
 

I expect the beer to be cold before the game, and the atmosphere at TCF Stadium to be fantastic. Other than that, I can't guarantee anything! :)

Looking forward to another year of outdoor football! Welcome to the Big 10 (12)
 


I expect about 6 wins.

It has been an on the job learning process for Brew. He has gone through quite a few coordinators by picking promising NFL assistants that had to learn the college game, they then moved on back to the pros or to coach with closer buddies at NC or Auburn. This has really hampered the progress of the team. He now has two "proven" (I am sure the Nebraska fans would argue about the D) college coaches that should make a big difference. He has brought in better talent and created a team family with much more emphasis on school tradition.
 

I agree. Brew has finally put together the kind of team I think we all expected three years ago. It's almost like we're just now starting. unfortunately the honeymoon is over. This will be the most talented team we've had here in a very long time. But there is still a learning curve that presents a high degree of uncertainty. If the D doesn't gel quickly it will be a long year, and 3-4 wins isn't out of the question. And maybe the coaches seat is a little too hot for him to survive such a year. On the other hand if things gel quickly and we survive the MTSU game and compete well against USC we could be the surprise team of the big ten this year.
 

I think the Gophers will finish around 6-6, possibly better if the unknowns turn out OK. The offense should be better; it would be difficult to be worse. With the offense tailored to the talent available, instead of asking college athletes to play like all-pro players in order to make it work, it will be better. I expect the defense to be OK, and any improvement in the offense makes the defense look better.

I think the jury is still out on Brewster. A coach like him can do well, but he has to be able to rely on the coordinators. I think that means having a system where the coordinators are replaceable. If the system is so unique that you face a radical change by hiring another coordinator, it may not be the best choice.
 




Good to hear from IM Hipp(ster)

How are things down in Chapin, SC?
 

Most importantly, a win over Iowa/and or Wisconsin. Nothing would do more to help the id of Gopher football followers than beating the Hawkeyes or Badgers, diehards, casual fans & bandwagoners alike.

Winning a November Big Ten game wouldn't hurt, either. 0-9 under Brew to this point.
 

My expectations is to win a rivalry game. I think that has to be focus so that we don't go into rebuilding mode again.
 

I think 3 and 9 is the most probable outcome for this year. We'll see - MN has a very young Defense and Weber was pathetic last year, even with Decker in the line up. I think he finished around 13 ints to 15 TD.. Maybe the run game will be better, because Weber could kill the team again this year.
 



tds2n said:
I think 3 and 9 is the most probable outcome for this year. We'll see - MN has a very young Defense and Weber was pathetic last year, even with Decker in the line up. I think he finished around 13 ints to 15 TD.. Maybe the run game will be better, because Weber could kill the team again this year.
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A lot of things could happen. 3 and 9 is could happen, but to say it is probable takes some evidence. Questions about the defense are not evidence. Many people make the mistake of assume that if we don't know something, that lack of knowledge counts as evidence. Weber could have another bad year or it might not be so bad with a sane offense.
 

nsmike said:
I'll tell you my sleeper candidate, for a breakout year, is Jewhan Edwards. He's been solid but I expect him to blow up and be a monster on the D-line. Tinsley, will be recognized as one of the best linebackers in the B10, by the end of the year. I also expect either, Lair or Euree, to step up as the number two receiver on the team. I believe the defense will be good and constantly improving, the offense, will be competent, it'll show signs of becoming good but it'll be a year away.
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You know, when I was reading your post, my own ramblings, and some others on breakout players/sleeper candidates, suprise impact players etc, I think basically that is where we are at as far as expectations going into this year: We have a ton of potential breakout candidates and unknowns, but nothing solid to hang our hat on until we see the team in action.
Who knows, maybe Lair catches 10 balls in the first game, or Watkins has 3 forced fumbles, or Garin has 3 sacks, or .....
the list can go on and on, but basically we have a bunch of very heralded, very talented youngsters who may or may not step up and become impact players, our season will depend on Brew's recruits becoming bread and butter players. If they do, we win 7+ games, if they don't we win 5 or less. I think that's where we're at.
 

RodentRampage said:
A lot of things could happen. 3 and 9 is could happen, but to say it is probable takes some evidence. Questions about the defense are not evidence. Many people make the mistake of assume that if we don't know something, that lack of knowledge counts as evidence. Weber could have another bad year or it might not be so bad with a sane offense.
Click to expand...


What we don’t know:

Exactly how the 2010 team will perform.

What we have evidence of:

Offense
The offense has been ranked at #11 offensively in conference play for the past two seasons.

Offensively, the difference in Time of Possession was a decrease of :24 from ’08 to ’09. The ‘09 defense did not spend significantly more time on the field.

Offensively we scored more points per game in conf. play than we did in 2008

We gave up 8 more sacks, or one per game in 2009 (29 vs. 21)

The running game improved by nearly 20 yards in 2009, but still ranked #11 in 2009 (as it did in 2008)

Defense
The Defense was on the field for 561 plays in 2009 vs. 534 plays in 2008. Effectively they were on the field for roughly 3.5 plays more per game in 2009.

The Defense gave up 5 fewer yds/game in conf. play in 2009

Defensively we gave up .6 points per game more in 2009– effectively the same as the year before

3rd Down conversions went from opponents being successful 39.4% in 2008 to opponents having a 49.2% success rate against us in 2009

Red Zone defense went from #1 in the Big Ten in 2008 to #9 in 2009.

Special Teams
The return games was #5 in KO returns (down from #3 in ’08 but with more yardage in ’09) and #1 in Punt returns (up from #7 in 2008)

Punting improved to #2 in the conference from #5

Discipline
In 08 we were #10 in the Big Ten in penalty yards/game with 56.5. In 2009 we were #9 in the Big Ten with 57.4 yards/game.

NOTE: The above numbers are influenced by switching out Michigan for Michigan State and Penn State for Indiana. While there are significant statistical differences between the four teams, the record in each season was the same: 1-1.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: All stats are for Conference play only.

Evidence vs. Opinion
The evidence is historical, but there is significant evidence that the pre-season rags aren’t wrong. I hope that things get much, much better, but there isn’t evidence to suggest it will. I will continue to hope, but my analytical nature suggests that my hope will not be rewarded again this season.
 

caliGopher, thank you for posting those comparisons. They certainly help to compare some aspects of the 2008 and 2009 teams. I'm sincerely hoping the 2010 offense can increase their time of possession and keep the defense off the field so they don't tire. I wonder how the stats would project if the offense were able to do this.
 

I'm not sure how much a comparison of 08 to 09 has to do with how 10 will be compared to 09. If I put a pan of cold water on the stove it may go from 50 degress to 212 degrees, but I can't conclude that it will next be at 400 degrees.

The big question is whether the new starters will be any good. The magazine writers haven't researched this, merely assumed that they won't. The other question is whether the offense will be any better. It won't be any worse, but with a simpler offense tuned to the players abilities, it could be somewhat better.
 

6 + wins. At least 1 over Wisconsin, Iowa, USC or PSU. More competative losses. A more coherent game-day sideline. Fewer off-field incidents (this isn't off to a great start).
 


I expect a lot a cheap tickets available for the South Dakota game and thus my whole family can see the Gophers win a game.
 

I don't expect much

Honestly, I don't expect much. I think the Gophers will be 3 and 9 this season and will be looking for a new head coach. It's sad, but I'm just hoping, Some Day...Maybe the Gophers will have a stretch of good football that lasts a decade. Let's hope the next coach is the best since Mr. Lou Holtz. By the way, you can take my prediction to the bank!
 

I predict 6-wins for our favorite squad this year.

MTSU: W
USD: W
USC (that last letter is important, isn't it?): L
NIU: W
NWU: W
UW: L
PU: W
PSU, OSU, MSU: L
Ill: W
Ia: L

Reasons we'll get to 6 or more:
  • Much more depth than we've seen in previous years. On offense, guys like Gray, Allen, Stoudermire, Green, and Lair are all legit BT athletes. On D, I believe we have even more in Cooper, Tinlsey, Carter, Wilhite, Hageman, Jacobs, Kirksey...
  • Staff has shown the ability to prepare for and beat equal/lesser teams on the road. See NW, Ill, Purdue, and Syracuse (thus the predicted wins at PU and Ill).
  • A good non-conference schedule will both challenge and prepare us for BT play without leaving us wrecked. I predict 3-1, which I think is a good result against mostly solid competition.
  • I think our front 7 will be solid which is key in the BT. I really believe in our DT's and LB's.
  • I like the change to Horton and a presumed simpler offense.

Reasons we won't even reach 6 wins
  • Plain and simple, not enough offense again. Aside from Weber, we really don't have much in the way of dynamic playmaking ability on offense. We certainly have more solid, BT caliber athletes than we've had in the past, but where is that guy who's going to dominate consistently or carry us through a tough spot? Minus Gray (who likely won't play much), I just don't see anyone. McKnight has shown some big-play ability, but he's so inexperienced. Stoudermire is a good player (and GREAT on special teams), but he's not a natural receiver. Green is a good slot guy, but he's not a game changer. Running backs? Forget about it. All in all, I'm afraid that we'll continue to look like we did down the stretch (sans Decker).
  • Despite the hype this Spring, I'm worried that our running game hasn't improved at all. We don't have a breakaway back, nor do we have the personnel to pound it for 3-4 yards consistently.
  • I like Carter, but beyond that I don't see a whole lot of talent in the defensive backfield. Royston, Theret, and Collado are hard-working, solid players (and even good against the run), but they aren't game-changers and just don't do it for me against most BT passing games. Thorton and Watkins might be nice surprises, but that remains to be seen.
  • With so much youth on the field, there's the potential for many mental mistakes such as turnovers, blown coverage assignments, missed audibles, dumb penalties, etc. These can make the difference in close games (which I think will comprise the majority of our contests), so I could easily seeing us lose 1-2 games because of silly stuff.

All in all, I predict that more of the former will happen, which will elevate us to 6 wins. That said, it'll be an interesting ride and could easily leave us with anywhere from 3-8 wins. I know that's a cop-out, but there are so many unknowns on this team. All that said, I predict that 2011 will be a 9-win season and 2012 will see us in a New Year's Day bowl :)
 

caliGopher said:
What we don’t know:

Exactly how the 2010 team will perform.

What we have evidence of:

Offense
The offense has been ranked at #11 offensively in conference play for the past two seasons.

Offensively, the difference in Time of Possession was a decrease of :24 from ’08 to ’09. The ‘09 defense did not spend significantly more time on the field.

Offensively we scored more points per game in conf. play than we did in 2008

We gave up 8 more sacks, or one per game in 2009 (29 vs. 21)

The running game improved by nearly 20 yards in 2009, but still ranked #11 in 2009 (as it did in 2008)u

Defense
The Defense was on the field for 561 plays in 2009 vs. 534 plays in 2008. Effectively they were on the field for roughly 3.5 plays more per game in 2009.

The Defense gave up 5 fewer yds/game in conf. play in 2009

Defensively we gave up .6 points per game more in 2009– effectively the same as the year before

3rd Down conversions went from opponents being successful 39.4% in 2008 to opponents having a 49.2% success rate against us in 2009

Red Zone defense went from #1 in the Big Ten in 2008 to #9 in 2009.

Special Teams
The return games was #5 in KO returns (down from #3 in ’08 but with more yardage in ’09) and #1 in Punt returns (up from #7 in 2008)

Punting improved to #2 in the conference from #5

Discipline
In 08 we were #10 in the Big Ten in penalty yards/game with 56.5. In 2009 we were #9 in the Big Ten with 57.4 yards/game.

NOTE: The above numbers are influenced by switching out Michigan for Michigan State and Penn State for Indiana. While there are significant statistical differences between the four teams, the record in each season was the same: 1-1.

ADDITIONAL NOTE: All stats are for Conference play only.

Evidence vs. Opinion
The evidence is historical, but there is significant evidence that the pre-season rags aren’t wrong. I hope that things get much, much better, but there isn’t evidence to suggest it will. I will continue to hope, but my analytical nature suggests that my hope will not be rewarded again this season.
Click to expand...

You forgot to include a key component........strength of schedule. Without it your analysis is seriously flawed.
 

Some Day...Maybe said:
Honestly, I don't expect much. I think the Gophers will be 3 and 9 this season and will be looking for a new head coach. It's sad, but I'm just hoping, Some Day...Maybe the Gophers will have a stretch of good football that lasts a decade. Let's hope the next coach is the best since Mr. Lou Holtz. By the way, you can take my prediction to the bank!
Click to expand...

SNIFF, SNIFF, I smell the stinch of a TROLL.
 

I think this season is key.

If the Gophers are in any kind of bowl game I will be thrilled. We have a ton of new guys stepping up into starting positions. This can been good and bad but if they can play well the defense could be pretty strong. They are talented and are better athletes than we have had but I am not sure they have the grit we have seen from guys like Campbell and Triplett. If the D can play well and improve on last season which could be possible the Gophers are going to be ok.

Can the offense get any worse? I am not sure it can but the second year in the offense or a simpler version of it should be improved a great deal even though that doesnt make it more than average. The team has a ton of work to do but they need to start up front if the line plays better in pass blocking but more so in run blocking the offense will be more effective period. Throw in a very experienced backfield. Guys like Weber, Bennett, and Eskridge seem to have been around forever. Throw in a couple good recruits the running game should be more effective even if its not flashy.

I think the Gophers are going to be 6-6. Winning a game or two more could happen if theyounger players stepping in come on real fast. That being said winning 4 or 5 games will be very possible if the same young players dont step up or we struggle with injuries.
 

Sportsfan24 said:
You forgot to include a key component........strength of schedule. Without it your analysis is seriously flawed.
Click to expand...

Actually, the strength of schedule change is noted in the evidence. Two stronger teams (PSU, MSU) replaced two weaker teams (Um and IU), yet the Gophers went 1-1 both years.

What could have been said is this:

In 2008, using Sagarin ratings we beat one team we shouldn't have: Illinois, beat two teams we should have: Purdue and Indiana, and lost to one team we shouldn't have: Michigan.

In 2009, again using Sagarin ratings, we beat two teams we shouldn't have: Michigan State and Northwestern, Beat one team we should have: Purdue and lost to one we shouldn't have: Illinois.

Within these factual results, one could argue that it doesn't take into account x, y or z factors (e.g. we played Michigan State after a heart wrenching loss, Eric Decker would have made a difference at the end of both seasons in a few games, etc.) but the goal was to stick to the evidence (facts) based on Rodent Rampage's post. Given the disparity in NC schedules from '08 to '09, this is the reason I looked at Conf. Stats only.

Finally this is not an analysis. I draw no actual conclusions from these numbers, I only look at it as evidence to what direction the program took in this two year period.

As someone pointed out, past performance is not a guarantee of future results and nowhere is this more true than in sports. The data is merely evidence (or fact) vs. opinion. There were mitigating factors to be sure, but I was surprised at some of the stats and the direction the Gophers "D" took statistically. I was also surprised that the offense actually performed closer to 2008 levels as my opinion was it was much worse.

Rather than an analysis, I merely pointed out that the evidence of the past two seasons is informing my opinion that my hopes for this year will not be rewarded.

You are free to take from this what you will.
 

caliGopher said:
Actually, the strength of schedule change is noted in the evidence. Two stronger teams (PSU, MSU) replaced two weaker teams (Um and IU), yet the Gophers went 1-1 both years.

What could have been said is this:

In 2008, using Sagarin ratings we beat one team we shouldn't have: Illinois, beat two teams we should have: Purdue and Indiana, and lost to one team we shouldn't have: Michigan.

In 2009, again using Sagarin ratings, we beat two teams we shouldn't have: Michigan State and Northwestern, Beat one team we should have: Purdue and lost to one we shouldn't have: Illinois.

Within these factual results, one could argue that it doesn't take into account x, y or z factors (e.g. we played Michigan State after a heart wrenching loss, Eric Decker would have made a difference at the end of both seasons in a few games, etc.) but the goal was to stick to the evidence (facts) based on Rodent Rampage's post. Given the disparity in NC schedules from '08 to '09, this is the reason I looked at Conf. Stats only.

Finally this is not an analysis. I draw no actual conclusions from these numbers, I only look at it as evidence to what direction the program took in this two year period.

As someone pointed out, past performance is not a guarantee of future results and nowhere is this more true than in sports. The data is merely evidence (or fact) vs. opinion. There were mitigating factors to be sure, but I was surprised at some of the stats and the direction the Gophers "D" took statistically. I was also surprised that the offense actually performed closer to 2008 levels as my opinion was it was much worse.

Rather than an analysis, I merely pointed out that the evidence of the past two seasons is informing my opinion that my hopes for this year will not be rewarded.

You are free to take from this what you will.
Click to expand...

I'm reading this from my smart phone so I missed that you only took into account the conference schedule. I enjoyed your post, it was well thought out and backed with statistical data!
 

I'm optimistic that the O-Line improves this year, thus, giving Weber more time in the pocket. This will help us give a better passing threat, which in turn will give us a better running game. So, I'm saying 7-5 overall record and a 7th or 6th place Big Ten finish. Yea, this may be a fantasy, but I'm going with this. If we lose our opener to MTSU and look pathetic doing it, I'll revise my prediction to 4-8 and 10th place in the Big Ten.
 

Sportsfan24 said:
I'm reading this from my smart phone so I missed that you only took into account the conference schedule. I enjoyed your post, it was well thought out and backed with statistical data!
Click to expand...

Actually adding the results based on Sagarin ratings is interesting and showed improvement over 2008 in a meaningful way, so glad you asked the question. I hadn't looked at it that way.
 

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