Expectation/Fire Line - Next Few Years

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RickDornsby

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Even though we have 10+ "fire Pitino" threads, I'm going to confidently say I am not on that bandwagon and that he's staying.

So my questions are:

1. What are your expectations for the next 3 years?
2. What is the make/break fire line?

Not everyone has to have the same type of answers, but this would be the suggested format. Obviously there is some objectivity involved, but just looking for a general standard.

Expectations:
2016-2017: 17 wins, 7 BIG wins, 1 signature win, NCAA bubble
2017-2018: 20 wins, 9-10 BIG wins, 2 signature wins, make NCAAs
2018-2019: 20 wins, 9-10 BIG wins, 2 signature wins, make NCAAs

Fire line (anything below this would likely be his last year):
2016-2017: 14 wins, 5 BIG wins
2017-2018: 17 wins, 8 BIG wins - basically anything short of NCAAs
2018-2019: 17 wins, 8 BIG wins - depends on previous year, but probably NCAA

Rationale: Next year I can't imagine NCAAs but I wouldn't be shocked if we were in the conversation. There is a very interesting dynamic...the direction after next year is key. If we say, "he's showing decent improvement" a very key decision needs to be made. Do you want to trust a coach who has generally underwhelmed coaching a team with 5 seniors that will play either key or at least sub big man roles plus soph/junior class key players?

If he delivers 2 years from now, we'll need to hopefully restock a bit. I'd love to be a bit reloaded going into that season, if we can at least maintain some solid recruits, I will be ok with that.
 

Call me a pessimist, but I'm not sure that next year's record is going to be this huge improvement that some people are predicting. The Gophs will have to work 5 new players into the rotation, figure out everyone's roles, and will still have a lot of work to do on player development - the 4 FR from this year and the 3 incoming FR for next year.

I would not be surprised to see the team struggle out of the gate until Pitino figures out the rotation and substitution patterns.

I could be wrong - Coffee and Curry could come in and be instant difference-makers. Lynch and Fitzgerald could immediately fix all the front-line issues. But, I suspect it will take a little longer for all of the pieces to fit together. My gut tells me mid-season next year will be the key point of the season - that's when this team should start showing some real improvement. If it doesn't start showing that improvement by mid-season (or sooner), then the coach's seat will be hotter than Tim Brewster's chili.
 

RickDornsby said:
Even though we have 10+ "fire Pitino" threads, I'm going to confidently say I am not on that bandwagon and that he's staying.

So my questions are:

1. What are your expectations for the next 3 years?
2. What is the make/break fire line?

Not everyone has to have the same type of answers, but this would be the suggested format. Obviously there is some objectivity involved, but just looking for a general standard.

Expectations:
2016-2017: 17 wins, 7 BIG wins, 1 signature win, NCAA bubble
2017-2018: 20 wins, 9-10 BIG wins, 2 signature wins, make NCAAs
2018-2019: 20 wins, 9-10 BIG wins, 2 signature wins, make NCAAs

Fire line (anything below this would likely be his last year):
2016-2017: 14 wins, 5 BIG wins
2017-2018: 17 wins, 8 BIG wins - basically anything short of NCAAs
2018-2019: 17 wins, 8 BIG wins - depends on previous year, but probably NCAA

Rationale: Next year I can't imagine NCAAs but I wouldn't be shocked if we were in the conversation. There is a very interesting dynamic...the direction after next year is key. If we say, "he's showing decent improvement" a very key decision needs to be made. Do you want to trust a coach who has generally underwhelmed coaching a team with 5 seniors that will play either key or at least sub big man roles plus soph/junior class key players?

If he delivers 2 years from now, we'll need to hopefully restock a bit. I'd love to be a bit reloaded going into that season, if we can at least maintain some solid recruits, I will be ok with that.
Click to expand...

I agree with the 7 B10 wins next year....Unless they have a great non-conference record, 6 wins or less will not cut it...The awful attendance at the barn this year and next will also contribute.
 

I think if he misses the NIT next year, there is no possible excuse for not firing him. If he doesn't make the NCAAs next year, we should consider firing him, and if he misses it two years in a row he is definitely gone.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I think if he misses the NIT next year, there is no possible excuse for not firing him. If he doesn't make the NCAAs next year, we should consider firing him, and if he misses it two years in a row he is definitely gone.
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I agree with bleeds line of thinking. Making the NIT is fairly easy to do. I was led to believe that he was the caliber coach that could get a team like this year's team to the NIT door. That is what makes this year such a disappointment.

If he cannot make the NIT with the talent of a top 20 recruiting class, then it becomes evident where the problem resides.



Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk
 


Ewert86PC said:
I agree with bleeds line of thinking. Making the NIT is fairly easy to do. I was led to believe that he was the caliber coach that could get a team like this year's team to the NIT door. That is what makes this year such a disappointment.

If he cannot make the NIT with the talent of a top 20 recruiting class, then it becomes evident where the problem resides.



Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Seaton Hall
Missouri (2nd top 20 in a row)
USC
UNLV (2 in the top 20 in last 3 years)
Florida (2nd top 20 in a row)


All top 20 recruiting classes in 2014, none WENT to the NIT last year (not sure how many turned down invites).

Top 20 Recruiting class /= immediate "success".
 

Give me 3 NCAAs every 5 years, and then go from there

My general expectation for any Gopher basketball coach -- and I know it's one that hasn't happened often here -- is 3 NCAA appearances over a rolling 5-year cycle. Yes, I would like to be a NCAA tourney regular and am envious of schools that get there almost every year, but I could live with 3 NCAAs every 5 years. And that expectation doesn't mean there can't be some flexibility (with the 3 in 5) when a team falls short due to unfortunate circumstances.

I grow weary of hearing every excuse in the world why we don't win here:

1. Weather
2. Administration doesn't care enough about football/men's basketball
3. Academics are too tough
4. No practice facility
5. Williams Arena is an outdated fossil, 18 year-olds hate it
6. We're jinxed

I look at three schools in our region (Iowa, Iowa State, and Wisconsin), IMO all universities basketball- and conference-wise (major conference) comparable to Minnesota. Since the NCAA Tournament went to a 64-team bracket in 1985, Wisconsin has appeared in 19 NCAAs (including 17 consecutive), Iowa & Iowa State 16 apiece, and the Gophers 10.

Only 4 times since 1985 has Minnesota had its program to the point where it reached the NCAA tourney 3 times in a 5-year cycle (feel free to put an asterisk by the first 3 if you so choose):

1993-97 (94, 95, 97)
1994-98 (94, 95, 97)
1995-99 (95, 97, 99)
2009-13 (09, 10, 13)

Know it doesn't sound like much, but I would AT LEAST like to get this program to the point where we're hearing our name called on Selection Sunday 60% of the time every 5 years, with the expectation/hope/assumption (however you want to phrase it) that at least 1 of those involves a trip to the 2nd weekend (Sweet 16 or better) of the tournament. Legitimately competing for a B1G regular-season championship in late February/early March would be exceptionally cool, too.
 

In three years, I expect to be in the top three of the conference with an NCAA run to, at least, the sweet sixteen.
 

SelectionSunday said:
My general expectation for any Gopher basketball coach -- and I know it's one that hasn't happened often here -- is 3 NCAA appearances over a rolling 5-year cycle. Yes, I would like to be a NCAA tourney regular and am envious of schools that get there almost every year, but I could live with 3 NCAAs every 5 years. And that expectation doesn't mean there can't be some flexibility (with the 3 in 5) when a team falls short due to unfortunate circumstances.

I grow weary of hearing every excuse in the world why we don't win here:

1. Weather
2. Administration doesn't care enough about football/men's basketball
3. Academics are too tough
4. No practice facility
5. Williams Arena is an outdated fossil, 18 year-olds hate it
6. We're jinxed

I look at three schools in our region (Iowa, Iowa State, and Wisconsin), IMO all universities basketball- and conference-wise (major conference) comparable to Minnesota. Since the NCAA Tournament went to a 64-team bracket in 1985, Wisconsin has appeared in 19 NCAAs (including 17 consecutive), Iowa & Iowa State 16 apiece, and the Gophers 10.

Only 4 times since 1985 has Minnesota had its program to the point where it reached the NCAA tourney 3 times in a 5-year cycle (feel free to put an asterisk by the first 3 if you so choose):

1993-97 (94, 95, 97)
1994-98 (94, 95, 97)
1995-99 (95, 97, 99)
2009-13 (09, 10, 13)

Know it doesn't sound like much, but I would AT LEAST like to get this program to the point where we're hearing our name called on Selection Sunday 60% of the time every 5 years, with the expectation/hope/assumption (however you want to phrase it) that at least 1 of those involves a trip to the 2nd weekend (Sweet 16 or better) of the tournament. Legitimately competing for a B1G regular-season championship in late February/early March would be exceptionally cool, too.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with any of that. But what you didn't say, and may imply this (you didn't) that if you don't meet those goals you should hit the reset button after year 5.

That doesn't solve anything, if anything, it creates a constant recycling of poor results with expectations that haven't been met very often. We have got to get out of that rut and give a coach some time. Tubby could have/should have gotten more time. Pitino needs to get more time. We've PROVEN, it's not greener on the otherside, time and time again.
 



I think you interpreted my post very well. I'm not in the "fire Pitino" camp, and won't be unless Year 4 resembles where this season appears headed. To give a coach a fair chance, 5 years is reasonable to prove yourself.

I will add, however, that if said coach is given those 5 years, and in Years 3, 4, and 5 there isn't even a sniff of a NCAA tourney bid and/or an above .500 B1G record, all bets are off. Especially, when said coach was handed a "reset" season by the standing AD for Year 3, which typically is a season one should reasonably expect a "new regime" to be competing for (if not earning) a NCAA bid.
 

SelectionSunday said:
My general expectation for any Gopher basketball coach -- and I know it's one that hasn't happened often here -- is 3 NCAA appearances over a rolling 5-year cycle. Yes, I would like to be a NCAA tourney regular and am envious of schools that get there almost every year, but I could live with 3 NCAAs every 5 years. And that expectation doesn't mean there can't be some flexibility (with the 3 in 5) when a team falls short due to unfortunate circumstances.

I grow weary of hearing every excuse in the world why we don't win here:

1. Weather
2. Administration doesn't care enough about football/men's basketball
3. Academics are too tough
4. No practice facility
5. Williams Arena is an outdated fossil, 18 year-olds hate it
6. We're jinxed

I look at three schools in our region (Iowa, Iowa State, and Wisconsin), IMO all universities basketball- and conference-wise (major conference) comparable to Minnesota. Since the NCAA Tournament went to a 64-team bracket in 1985, Wisconsin has appeared in 19 NCAAs (including 17 consecutive), Iowa & Iowa State 16 apiece, and the Gophers 10.

Only 4 times since 1985 has Minnesota had its program to the point where it reached the NCAA tourney 3 times in a 5-year cycle (feel free to put an asterisk by the first 3 if you so choose):

1993-97 (94, 95, 97)
1994-98 (94, 95, 97)
1995-99 (95, 97, 99)
2009-13 (09, 10, 13)

Know it doesn't sound like much, but I would AT LEAST like to get this program to the point where we're hearing our name called on Selection Sunday 60% of the time every 5 years, with the expectation/hope/assumption (however you want to phrase it) that at least 1 of those involves a trip to the 2nd weekend (Sweet 16 or better) of the tournament. Legitimately competing for a B1G regular-season championship in late February/early March would be exceptionally cool, too.
Click to expand...
This is where I would like to see the program be as well, there's some flexibility for example if we can get in the next two years and throw in the NIT title from year one, I can live with that. I don't think I could live with a six win in conference season though next season. I would like us to get back to the 8-10 mark next year, IDK how I would feel about 7-11. Depend on who we beat and how the NIT went I guess in that scenario. 2018 is definitely an NCAA or bust season. Mason, Lynch, Fitz will be seniors, the current freshman will be upperclassmen with a lot of playing time under their belts, Coffey and Curry will have a year under their belts as well along with Hurt. That team should be a top half of the conference team at least.
 

bemidjigopher said:
This is where I would like to see the program be as well, there's some flexibility for example if we can get in the next two years and throw in the NIT title from year one, I can live with that. I don't think I could live with a six win in conference season though next season. I would like us to get back to the 8-10 mark next year, IDK how I would feel about 7-11. Depend on who we beat and how the NIT went I guess in that scenario. 2018 is definitely an NCAA or bust season. Mason, Lynch, Fitz will be seniors, the current freshman will be upperclassmen with a lot of playing time under their belts, Coffey and Curry will have a year under their belts as well along with Hurt. That team should be a top half of the conference team at least.
Click to expand...

I agree. 6 is not enough next year and 7 is borderline. If they can get to at least 8 wins next year then I feel good about their chances of winning 10+ the following year because they return everyone.
 

This is the challenge I'm facing. I expect/want 7+ wins in the progression next year but I have a hard time seeing too much improvement.
 



I also see 6 wins being the ceiling with 4-5 being an expectation next year. I really hope I'm wrong but we'll likely play Michigan St, Maryland, Ohio St, Wisconsin, and Iowa twice next year. I know all those teams will look a lot different by the start of the season but this years' schedule should be the easiest it gets and we may not win a game.
 

tmvander said:
I also see 6 wins being the ceiling with 4-5 being an expectation next year. I really hope I'm wrong but we'll likely play Michigan St, Maryland, Ohio St, Wisconsin, and Iowa twice next year. I know all those teams will look a lot different by the start of the season but this years' schedule should be the easiest it gets and we may not win a game.
Click to expand...

Why do you put Iowa in that tough group next year, they are the most Sr. dependent team this year.
 

Winasota Gopher said:
Seaton Hall
Missouri (2nd top 20 in a row)
USC
UNLV (2 in the top 20 in last 3 years)
Florida (2nd top 20 in a row)


All top 20 recruiting classes in 2014, none WENT to the NIT last year (not sure how many turned down invites).

Top 20 Recruiting class /= immediate "success".
Click to expand...
Maybe it doesn't, but a coaches job is to recruit and train players to play basketball. Not making the NIT means there is a problem with recruiting and/or training, thus the coach is not getting the job done.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk
 

Ski U Mah Gopher said:
Why do you put Iowa in that tough group next year, they are the most Sr. dependent team this year.
Click to expand...

That's why I said all those teams will look a lot different by the start of the season. My point was that this year's schedule will likely be a whole lot easier this year than next year's schedule will be next year (regardless of roster changes). If we had next year's players playing this year I would put our ceiling of wins higher than having that same team play next year against next year's Big Ten teams.
 

tmvander said:
I also see 6 wins being the ceiling with 4-5 being an expectation next year. I really hope I'm wrong but we'll likely play Michigan St, Maryland, Ohio St, Wisconsin, and Iowa twice next year. I know all those teams will look a lot different by the start of the season but this years' schedule should be the easiest it gets and we may not win a game.
Click to expand...

If we only win 4 or 5 in conference next year, its time for a reset.
 


Recruits could also save his job. Tubby signed Royce White and Rodney Williams. Two highly sought after recruits.
If Pitino signs Gary Trent Junior I would keep him no matter what the record is the next two years.
 

To me, next year has to be a NCAA tournament berth or a winning conference record (bad non-conference record keeps us out of the tourney) for Pitino to get year 5. There are many reasons why I feel this way but in the interest of brevity, I'll focus on one: recruiting. In a hypothetical scenario where Pitino doesn't make the tournament and keeps his job after next season, he will have 5 scholarships to fill (Lynch, Fitzgerald, Diedhiou, Konate, Mason). He's going to have to recruit to replace those guys on what will be one of, if not the hottest seats in college basketball. Pitino will need to somehow convince 3-5 good prospects to commit to Minnesota while having no real idea if he will be around to coach them. If Pitino is canned after year 5, we are putting the next coach in to an awful situation. There will be 5 kids graduating and he'll have to hope to hang on to whoever Pitino got to sign LOI's that November and/or do a whole lot of Spring recruiting. This is setting the next guy up for failure. On the other hand, if Pitino is fired after year 4 the new coach will have that entire Summer/Fall to evaluate kids and host official visits. He can take advantage of the usual mild bump of being the "new guy" and coach a veteran team in year 1 (those 5 seniors) in hopes of building some on the court momentum.

Hopefully Pitino succeeds in year 4 and is able to recruit those 5 open scholarships as a program on the rise.
 

I don't think you look for a number. I think you look for progress. I think people inside the U probably can see and feel progress a lot more than people outside of the U.

I am of the camp that he should get next year 100%.
Next year you look for progress. That could mean 12 wins. That could mean 18 wins. That could mean 20 wins.
Always look for progress, wins are a symptom of a program not a definition of a program. If you go by numbers alone, you are missing the forest through the trees IMO
 

Some guy said:
I don't think you look for a number. I think you look for progress. I think people inside the U probably can see and feel progress a lot more than people outside of the U.

I am of the camp that he should get next year 100%.
Next year you look for progress. That could mean 12 wins. That could mean 18 wins. That could mean 20 wins.
Always look for progress, wins are a symptom of a program not a definition of a program. If you go by numbers alone, you are missing the forest through the trees IMO
Click to expand...

Money.
 

EG#9 said:
To me, next year has to be a NCAA tournament berth or a winning conference record (bad non-conference record keeps us out of the tourney) for Pitino to get year 5. There are many reasons why I feel this way but in the interest of brevity, I'll focus on one: recruiting. In a hypothetical scenario where Pitino doesn't make the tournament and keeps his job after next season, he will have 5 scholarships to fill (Lynch, Fitzgerald, Diedhiou, Konate, Mason). He's going to have to recruit to replace those guys on what will be one of, if not the hottest seats in college basketball. Pitino will need to somehow convince 3-5 good prospects to commit to Minnesota while having no real idea if he will be around to coach them. If Pitino is canned after year 5, we are putting the next coach in to an awful situation. There will be 5 kids graduating and he'll have to hope to hang on to whoever Pitino got to sign LOI's that November and/or do a whole lot of Spring recruiting. This is setting the next guy up for failure. On the other hand, if Pitino is fired after year 4 the new coach will have that entire Summer/Fall to evaluate kids and host official visits. He can take advantage of the usual mild bump of being the "new guy" and coach a veteran team in year 1 (those 5 seniors) in hopes of building some on the court momentum.

Hopefully Pitino succeeds in year 4 and is able to recruit those 5 open scholarships as a program on the rise.
Click to expand...

I think there is a decent chance one of those guys will have transferred out by then. No evidence, just a hunch.
 

EG#9 said:
To me, next year has to be a NCAA tournament berth or a winning conference record (bad non-conference record keeps us out of the tourney) for Pitino to get year 5. There are many reasons why I feel this way but in the interest of brevity, I'll focus on one: recruiting. In a hypothetical scenario where Pitino doesn't make the tournament and keeps his job after next season, he will have 5 scholarships to fill (Lynch, Fitzgerald, Diedhiou, Konate, Mason). He's going to have to recruit to replace those guys on what will be one of, if not the hottest seats in college basketball. Pitino will need to somehow convince 3-5 good prospects to commit to Minnesota while having no real idea if he will be around to coach them. If Pitino is canned after year 5, we are putting the next coach in to an awful situation. There will be 5 kids graduating and he'll have to hope to hang on to whoever Pitino got to sign LOI's that November and/or do a whole lot of Spring recruiting. This is setting the next guy up for failure. On the other hand, if Pitino is fired after year 4 the new coach will have that entire Summer/Fall to evaluate kids and host official visits. He can take advantage of the usual mild bump of being the "new guy" and coach a veteran team in year 1 (those 5 seniors) in hopes of building some on the court momentum.

Hopefully Pitino succeeds in year 4 and is able to recruit those 5 open scholarships as a program on the rise.
Click to expand...

This statement is right on. Coach P. must produce next year or we have to bring in a new coach. Why wait for what. He has made so many huge recruiting mistakes and I am not sure that he and his staff are very good coaches, but we need to wait until after then 2016/2017 season to make a coaching decision. I hope that he can turn it around, but I feel like I am sitting on the Titanic as a Gopher ticket holder
.
 

If "produce" is a winning big 10 conference record, it's happened 2 times in the last 18 years. And if you only count official years its 2x in the last 25 and it has happend 10 times in the last 50 years.

It will be almost IMPOSSIBLE to not see "progress" next year considering how terrible this year has been. That said, it's going to be difficult, in my eyes, to justify not allowing him a chance to coach Mason as a senior.

Him committing "so many recruiting mistakes" I'm not on board with. He had 1 bad year recruiting, that was his first full class. His first class overall served its purpose. He has to be perfect with his second class and he absolutely swung and missed, that was his recruiting mistake, 1 bad year. His 3rd class the jury is still out and his 4th class looks to at a minimum be an improvement from his 3rd class.



Stop with they hyperbole.
 

RickDornsby said:
Even though we have 10+ "fire Pitino" threads, I'm going to confidently say I am not on that bandwagon and that he's staying.

So my questions are:

1. What are your expectations for the next 3 years?
2. What is the make/break fire line?

Not everyone has to have the same type of answers, but this would be the suggested format. Obviously there is some objectivity involved, but just looking for a general standard.

Expectations:
2016-2017: 17 wins, 7 BIG wins, 1 signature win, NCAA bubble
2017-2018: 20 wins, 9-10 BIG wins, 2 signature wins, make NCAAs
2018-2019: 20 wins, 9-10 BIG wins, 2 signature wins, make NCAAs

Fire line (anything below this would likely be his last year):
2016-2017: 14 wins, 5 BIG wins
2017-2018: 17 wins, 8 BIG wins - basically anything short of NCAAs
2018-2019: 17 wins, 8 BIG wins - depends on previous year, but probably NCAA

Rationale: Next year I can't imagine NCAAs but I wouldn't be shocked if we were in the conversation. There is a very interesting dynamic...the direction after next year is key. If we say, "he's showing decent improvement" a very key decision needs to be made. Do you want to trust a coach who has generally underwhelmed coaching a team with 5 seniors that will play either key or at least sub big man roles plus soph/junior class key players?

If he delivers 2 years from now, we'll need to hopefully restock a bit. I'd love to be a bit reloaded going into that season, if we can at least maintain some solid recruits, I will be ok with that.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure we can reach the bubble next year, but I think the 'fire line' is reasonable.
 

howeda7 said:
I'm not sure we can reach the bubble next year, but I think the 'fire line' is reasonable.
Click to expand...

Pitino perhaps will be coaching for his job in 2016-17, so I'd guess the non-league schedule will be as soft as it's been in a long time. He's likely to schedule a ton of sure-fire wins, similar to what Collins did this season at Northwestern. Won't be surprised if the ACC Challenge and the Gavitt Tipoff game (vs. Big East, if we play in it) are the only decent opponent(s). It will be a schedule built to earn a NIT bid if they can squeeze out 6-7 conference wins.

I agree with "some guy" that you can't just put a number on things -- you have to look at other factors -- but if I were to put a general expectation on 2016-17, it'd be at least getting back to 6 B1G wins + not having to play on Weakling Wednesday of the 2017 B1G Tournament in D.C. A 3rd straight season of being 1 of the bottom 4 teams in a 14-team conference is not acceptable.
 

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