ESPN'S Playoff Predictor

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They give Minnesota a 39% chance to make the playoff as a 1 or 2 loss Big Ten Champion.
26% with only loss in the Conference Championship.

Surprisingly, a 5% chance of not making the CFP at 13-0.
 
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RogueGopher said:
They give Minnesota a 39% chance to make the playoff as a 1 or 2 loss Big Ten Champion.
26% with only loss in the Conference Championship.

Surprisingly, a 5% chance of not making the CFP at 13-0.
Click to expand...
I assume it looks something like the follow undefeated teams:

USC
Baylor/Kansas/OK State
Georgia/Bama
Clemson/FSU/NC State
Minnesota
 


RogueGopher said:
They give Minnesota a 39% chance to make the playoff as a 1 or 2 loss Big Ten Champion.
26% with only loss in the Conference Championship.

Surprisingly, a 5% chance of not making the CFP at 13-0.
Click to expand...
I want to see the math behind a 25% chance of making the CFP with a loss in Indy. Would have to be at least a 2 loss B1G East champion. The 2 loss Ohio State scenario in that tool still has them at 98% chance to make the playoff.

1 in 4 for us doesn’t sound right.
 



RogueGopher said:
They give Minnesota a 39% chance to make the playoff as a 1 or 2 loss Big Ten Champion.
26% with only loss in the Conference Championship.

Surprisingly, a 5% chance of not making the CFP at 13-0.
Click to expand...
It hasn’t ever happened yet, but there is a chance there could be 5 undefeated P5 teams.
mnsportsgeek said:
I want to see the math behind a 25% chance of making the CFP with a loss in Indy. Would have to be at least a 2 loss B1G East champion. The 2 loss Ohio State scenario in that tool still has them at 98% chance to make the playoff.

1 in 4 for us doesn’t sound right.
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Almost all of that 1/4 is probably attributable to the scenario that 2 B1G teams make the playoff.

Their FPI has Ohio State the most likely team in the country to finish 12-0. So if you force feed another 12-0 Big Ten team into their model you basically have a situation more favorable to getting two teams in than AL/GA had last year.
 


noamfromm said:
I assume it looks something like the follow undefeated teams:

USC
Baylor/Kansas/OK State
Georgia/Bama
Clemson/FSU/NC State
Minnesota
Click to expand...
The scenario of MN not making playoff at 13-0 includes unbeaten USC, Bama and Georgia having one loss between the two of them
Clemson being unbeaten.
Even then, I think Mn is 4
 

Some guy said:
The scenario of MN not making playoff at 13-0 includes unbeaten USC, Bama and Georgia having one loss between the two of them
Clemson being unbeaten.
Even then, I think Mn is 4
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If 1-3 is undefeated USC, SEC titlist, ACC titlist.

Then the remaining teams are undefeated Minnesota, undefeated Big12 titlist, and one loss SEC runner up there would be a case for any of the teams, depending on how the SEC runner up finished
 




Dakota2 said:
Nobody in BIG, with possible exception of OSU, has an 81% chance of beating Iowa in late November. They will be the same old Iowa with the same old home run, game breaker defense. It's a tough game as always.
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Luckily today, we're worrying about the Purdue Championship Season...
 

noamfromm said:
If 1-3 is undefeated USC, SEC titlist, ACC titlist.

Then the remaining teams are undefeated Minnesota, undefeated Big12 titlist, and one loss SEC runner up there would be a case for any of the teams, depending on how the SEC runner up finished
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Yeah. Except I think 12-0 big ten team beating Ohio state or Michigan wins that tie 100% of the time

Especially with SEC #2 being the clear 4 in that scenario they won’t match the SEC championship game two weeks in a row. Baylor, k state, or Kansas won’t have the clout to unseat a big ten champ
 

Some guy said:
Yeah. Except I think 12-0 big ten team beating Ohio state or Michigan wins that tie 100% of the time

Especially with SEC #2 being the clear 4 in that scenario they won’t match the SEC championship game two weeks in a row. Baylor, k state, or Kansas won’t have the clout to unseat a big ten champ
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I think Baylor or OK State would. They both were in the title game last year and I think the consistency argument would allow one of them to sneak by us.
 

noamfromm said:
I think Baylor or OK State would. They both were in the title game last year and I think the consistency argument would allow one of them to sneak by us.
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Neither one of them would have a win against a 1 loss team in that scenario though.

Best wins would be 2 loss (whoever lost twice)

Their conference title game model with round robin plus play the best team again model IMO

Beating Ohio state or Michigan would jump a west champ over Baylor beating ok state a second time
 

Some guy said:
Neither one of them would have a win against a 1 loss team in that scenario though.

Best wins would be 2 loss (whoever lost twice)

Their conference title game model with round robin plus play the best team again model IMO

Beating Ohio state or Michigan would jump a west champ over Baylor beating ok state a second time
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Correct -- your unstated assumption was that 12-0 Minnesota plays 12-0 OSU/Michigan. In that case yes the gophers would have the upper hand.
 

Dakota2 said:
Nobody in BIG, with possible exception of OSU, has an 81% chance of beating Iowa in late November. They will be the same old Iowa with the same old home run, game breaker defense. It's a tough game as always.
Click to expand...
What about early December when Michigan kicked their asses?
 

noamfromm said:
Correct -- your unstated assumption was that 12-0 Minnesota plays 12-0 OSU/Michigan. In that case yes the gophers would have the upper hand.
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Even a 1 loss Michigan or Ohio state.


Going into the game.
1 loss Ohio state is a better quality win than 1 loss Oklahoma state or Baylor
I think the east champ would have to have two losses
 

From the Sporting News:

'Row the Boat to Indianapolis!'​

Minnesota (4-0) answered questions about an early-season soft schedule with an impressive 34-7 victory at Michigan State (2-2). The Gophers should earn a Top 25 ranking as a result, and the path to Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship is negotiable for the Gophers and coach P.J. Fleck.

Minnesota dominated the Spartans. Michigan State managed just nine carries for 15 yards in the first half and finished with 13 carries for 33 yards for the game. The Gophers also dominated the time of possession battle 42:30-17:30.

It's old-school Big Ten football and it is good enough to win the Big Ten West.

Minnesota continues to revolve around a pair of feel-good stories. Sixth-year senior Tanner Morgan (23 of 26, 268 yards, 3 TDs), who has been efficient (72 percent completions for the season), and running back Mohamed Ibrahim (22 carries, 103 yards, TD) who has returned from a ruptured Achilles' tendon to be one of the best running backs in the FBS?

Remember when P.J. Fleck led Minnesota off to a 9-0 start in 2019? The path to get there is back. The only ranked team on the schedule now is No. 14 Penn State, where the Gophers travel on Oct. 22. Minnesota could at least be 9-1 when they face Iowa and Wisconsin in the final two weeks. The Gophers have yet to play in the Big Ten championship game. This should be the year.
 


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