ESPN's Matchup Predictor: Minnesota Gophers outlook

[NoelarBear]

ESPN's Matchup Predictor: Minnesota Golden Gophers outlook. - GopherHole.com

With college football and the Gophers season almost upon us, we are starting to see predictions for the season roll in. Gophers fans are waiting in anticipation to see how this team will do this season. While there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, there are enough question marks that give...

gopherhole.com

With college football and the Gophers season almost upon us, we are starting to see predictions for the season roll in. Gophers fans are waiting in anticipation to see how this team will do this season. While there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, there are enough question marks that give fans pause to delay making bowl game plans.



Although we still have to wait until next week to see the Gophers start their season against North Carolina, I noticed that ESPN’s Matchup Predictor can now be seen for every Minnesota game except against rival Wisconsin.

One thing that stood out to me was the first game against North Carolina. While Vegas thinks the Gophers are two-point favorites, ESPN Match Predictor gives them a 45.3% chance of beating the Tar Heels. Let’s take a look at the game-by-game results according to the metrics, and find out how ESPN believes that Minnesota will do during the 2024 season.

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North Carolina at Minnesota

Projected record: 0-1

Matchup predictor win percentage: 45.3%

As of today, the Gophers are 2.5-point favorites against the Tar Heels, which isn’t much obviously. ESPN metrics give North Carolina the edge, slightly. This game could go either way. ESPN metrics say the Gophers lose this one.



Rhode Island at Minnesota

Projected Record: 1-1

Matchup predictor win percentage: 96.7%

ESPN Metrics say this game is the easiest one for the Gophers in 2024. Rhode Island is the only FCS team on the Gophers schedule this year.



Nevada at Minnesota

Projected Record: 2-1

Matchup predictor win percentage: 84.4%

This will be the first meeting between the two programs. The Wolfpack are predicted to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West. ESPN metrics clearly like the Gophers chances in this game.



Iowa at Minnesota

Projected Record: 2-2

Matchup predictor win percentage: 41.9%

Minnesota catches Iowa early this season as the Hawkeyes drive up on September 21st. This game should have plenty of fireworks as the Gophers look to defend Floyd for the first time since 2015. ESPN Metrics like Iowa in this game.



Minnesota at Michigan

Projected Record: 2-3

Matchup predictor win percentage: 15.6%

The Gophers first road game is a big one in The Big House against the defending national champions. The Gophers last win against Michigan came in Ann Arbor in 2014. ESPN Metrics has this game being the toughest one for Minnesota. They have the Little Brown Jug staying in Michigan.



USC at Minnesota

Projected Record: 2-4

Matchup predictor win percentage: 33.3%

The Trojans get to be the first West Coast team the Gophers face in the new Big Ten era. USC had no problems putting points on the board last season, it was their defense that let them down. ESPN metrics seem to think their defense will do fine in Dinkytown.



Minnesota at UCLA

Projected Record: 2-5

Matchup predictor win percentage: 32.3%

The Gophers will travel to Pasadena to take on a LA school for a second straight week. This percentage does surprise me, as I think the Bruins have more question marks than the Gophers heading into the season. I also don’t think this will be a tough road environment for Minnesota.



Maryland at Minnesota

Projected Record: 3-5

Matchup predictor win percentage: 50.9%

The Gophers have won two straight against Maryland at home. This is the first matchup between the programs since 2021, when the Gopher won 34-16 in Minneapolis. ESPN Metrics say this game is a toss-up.



Minnesota at Illinois

Projected Record: 3-6

Matchup predictor win percentage: 45.1%

The Gophers will travel to Champaign looking to end a three-game losing streak to the Illini. Another streak they look to end is handing Bret Bielema his first loss against Minnesota in his career. ESPN metrics say the Gophers might have a chance of doing that.



Minnesota at Rutgers

Projected Record: 3-7

Matchup predictor win percentage: 30.5%

There is a lot to look forward to in this game. As the Gophers face off against their former starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis in New Jersey. This will be Minnesota’s second straight game on the road. I thought their percentage would be a lot higher than this, but here we are.



Penn State at Minnesota

Projected Record: 3-8

Matchup predictor win percentage: 16.1%

The Battle of Governor's Victory Bell is the second hardest game for the Gophers, per ESPN metrics. There is a lot of optimism in Happy Valley this year, and rightfully so. The Nittany Lions arguably have the best running back duo in the nation. Last time Penn State played in Minnesota? It was 2019 when the Gophers beat No. 4 Penn State.



Minnesota at Wisconsin

For some reason, ESPN Matchup Predictor doesn’t show any percentages for this game.

The Gophers travel to Madison looking to get Paul Bunyan’s Axe back.

What percentage would I give them?

I say 39%.

 

[GopherVotary]

That sucks. We’re doomed.

 

[MNVCGUY]

just 30% at Rutgers? I continue to be totally lost on the Rutgers love this off season. You would think they were coming off a great season and landed a hotshot QB from the portal.

Media expectations for the upcoming season are pretty low.....here's hoping the team surprises the "experts" and goes out and has a strong year.

 

[Word]

just 30% at Rutgers? I continue to be totally lost on the Rutgers love this off season. You would think they were coming off a great season and landed a hotshot QB from the portal.

Media expectations for the upcoming season are pretty low.....here's hoping the team surprises the "experts" and goes out and has a strong year.

Didn't you hear? They got a starting big ten QB transfer!

 

[denguegopher]

That sucks. We’re doomed.

My exact thought. I can't figure out why we are such underdogs vs. UCLA (among other games).

 

[upnorthkid]

For those who were wondering how the preseason one is calculated. Per the article, it’s 72% accurate vs 75% from Vegas lines

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.

 

[mngg11]

Does anyone recall the prognostications prior to the 2019 season generally? Were we expected to be an 8+ win team?