ESPN's Jeff Borzello: "As of time of publish, it seems Ben Johnson is likely to get another year at Minnesota."

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BleedGopher

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Per Jeff:

As of time of publish, it seems Ben Johnson is likely to get another year at Minnesota. It was reported Tuesday Bobby Hurley is returning to Arizona State next season for the final year of his contract. Officials at Boston College, Cincinnati and Syracuse have publicly stated their head coaches are getting another year, while Virginia Tech's Mike Young and Colorado's Tad Boyle have no plans to retire.

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Men's coaching tracker: Who could replace Mike Woodson in Indiana? More buzz

Who's up next in Bloomington? What are the other big openings and potential candidates? Here's what we know about the 2025 coaching hiring and firing cycle.
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Go Gophers!!
 


I think only Coyle knows if Ben will get another year. By all metrics he does not deserve another one. I do think the local media banging the Ben drum is something he is stirring up with them or they are doing for clicks.

75% confidence that Ben is fired within the next week. Whalen is more of a legend. Had a better record. Had better recruits and we still made a move. Coyle will do the right thing.

Ben: 56-70 (.444), 22-57 (.278)
Lindsay: 71-76 (.483), 32-58 (.356)
 


Let's ignore if you think he "deserves" another year for whatever reason you choose, and just look at this objectively. What is the absolute best-case scenario for next year that is actually plausible?

Looking at the roster, Betts, Frank Mitchell, Grayson Grove and Asuma will be the only returnees. Then add in three freshman who based on their rankings and other offers likely won't be big-time contributors out of the gate. That leaves up to 6 spots up in the air. If we go off of CBJ's history on the level of player he'll be able to attract, we can reasonably predict what those players will be like. Also looking at how long this year's team took to "gel" and in 25/26 relying a ton on "one and done" transfers yet again (likely also acclimating to the B1G from a lower division), what will be the performance of those guys the first 1/3 to half the season?

I would argue the absolute best case scenario is a 8-12 conference record with a bunch of cupcake wins in the non-con. If all things go right, at best it puts us on the fringe of the NCAA's, but very likely on the outside looking in. While there is always a chance, I have a hard time believing there is better than a 5-10% chance next year's team is better than this year's team. At which point I would say, what is the point of keeping him on? If you're rolling the dice on a 10% chance you're better and a fringe NCAA team, but the much higher likelihood is further alienating and driving away the fan base, is that really a risk worth taking?
 


Beerculees said:
I think only Coyle knows if Ben will get another year. By all metrics he does not deserve another one. I do think the local media banging the Ben drum is something he is stirring up with them or they are doing for clicks.

75% confidence that Ben is fired within the next week. Whalen is more of a legend. Had a better record. Had better recruits and we still made a move. Coyle will do the right thing.

Ben: 56-70 (.444), 22-57 (.278)
Lindsay: 71-76 (.483), 32-58 (.356)
Click to expand...

I'd have 75% confidence the other way. I've thought for a couple months the NIL situation and the perception he wasn't given a fair shake as a result would be his life preserver. I still believe it. I guess I can only be pleasantly surprised at this point.
 


forever a gopher said:
Let's ignore if you think he "deserves" another year for whatever reason you choose, and just look at this objectively. What is the absolute best-case scenario for next year that is actually plausible?

Looking at the roster, Betts, Frank Mitchell, Grayson Grove and Asuma will be the only returnees. Then add in three freshman who based on their rankings and other offers likely won't be big-time contributors out of the gate. That leaves up to 6 spots up in the air. If we go off of CBJ's history on the level of player he'll be able to attract, we can reasonably predict what those players will be like. Also looking at how long this year's team took to "gel" and in 25/26 relying a ton on "one and done" transfers yet again (likely also acclimating to the B1G from a lower division), what will be the performance of those guys the first 1/3 to half the season?

I would argue the absolute best case scenario is a 8-12 conference record with a bunch of cupcake wins in the non-con. If all things go right, at best it puts us on the fringe of the NCAA's, but very likely on the outside looking in. While there is always a chance, I have a hard time believing there is better than a 5-10% chance next year's team is better than this year's team. At which point I would say, what is the point of keeping him on? If you're rolling the dice on a 10% chance you're better and a fringe NCAA team, but the much higher likelihood is further alienating and driving away the fan base, is that really a risk worth taking?
Click to expand...

Probably too early to make projections at this point but I understand what you are saying here. Based on history can we even say the four names you listed (what is Cochran's situation also) will return? Unclear how happy any of them are behind the scenes.

So difficult to be a Gopher basketball follower with how anemic the results have been. We are a dying breed at this point.
 

Truly surprising that, among both his basketball hires, Coyle would give Johnson more rope than Whalen, who outperformed him.

Meanwhile, Iowa will oust Fran after one bad year and bring in some rock star like McCollum.
 



forever a gopher said:
Let's ignore if you think he "deserves" another year for whatever reason you choose, and just look at this objectively. What is the absolute best-case scenario for next year that is actually plausible?

Looking at the roster, Betts, Frank Mitchell, Grayson Grove and Asuma will be the only returnees. Then add in three freshman who based on their rankings and other offers likely won't be big-time contributors out of the gate. That leaves up to 6 spots up in the air. If we go off of CBJ's history on the level of player he'll be able to attract, we can reasonably predict what those players will be like. Also looking at how long this year's team took to "gel" and in 25/26 relying a ton on "one and done" transfers yet again (likely also acclimating to the B1G from a lower division), what will be the performance of those guys the first 1/3 to half the season?

I would argue the absolute best case scenario is a 8-12 conference record with a bunch of cupcake wins in the non-con. If all things go right, at best it puts us on the fringe of the NCAA's, but very likely on the outside looking in. While there is always a chance, I have a hard time believing there is better than a 5-10% chance next year's team is better than this year's team. At which point I would say, what is the point of keeping him on? If you're rolling the dice on a 10% chance you're better and a fringe NCAA team, but the much higher likelihood is further alienating and driving away the fan base, is that really a risk worth taking?
Click to expand...
I get where you are coming from but I don't think you can assign a best case scenario to a team that doesn't even exist yet.

Without some impact transfers, 8-12 is probably a stretch, find a way to get a few and the crazy part about basketball is that your fortunes can change really quickly.

The only thing we know for sure is that whoever the coach is, he is going to have to kill it in the transfer portal to do well next year because there is very little coming back from the current squad as all of the starters and nearly all of the production from this year is graduating.
 

Bad Gopher said:
Truly surprising that, among both his basketball hires, Coyle would give Johnson more rope than Whalen, who outperformed him.

Meanwhile, Iowa will oust Fran after one bad year and bring in some rock star like McCollum.
Click to expand...
Whalen got 5 years....so giving Ben one more year would bring him even with her.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I get where you are coming from but I don't think you can assign a best case scenario to a team that doesn't even exist yet.

Without some impact transfers, 8-12 is probably a stretch, find a way to get a few and the crazy part about basketball is that your fortunes can change really quickly.

The only thing we know for sure is that whoever the coach is, he is going to have to kill it in the transfer portal to do well next year because there is very little coming back from the current squad as all of the starters and nearly all of the production from this year is graduating.
Click to expand...
You win with stars. He's going to have to replace a second-team all-conference forward and a shooting guard (Mitchell) who's performed at an all-conference level when at his best. Considering they might even lose Asuma, who Johnson stubbornly refused to start, this is looking bleak. Patterson was good, and Femi had his moments, but it's going to take way better than Patterson-level replacements to even get back to seven conference wins.
 

Those two wins in LA that would have been losses 9 times out of 10 have now set this program back at least a year, probably more. Without those wins they'd be 5-15 and have lost 7 of their last 8. Coyle couldn't possibly defend this cowardly move in that case. And they're exactly why the move should have been made in season.

The Gophers truly lose by winning more than any team I've ever seen.
 




MNVCGUY said:
I get where you are coming from but I don't think you can assign a best case scenario to a team that doesn't even exist yet.

Without some impact transfers, 8-12 is probably a stretch, find a way to get a few and the crazy part about basketball is that your fortunes can change really quickly.

The only thing we know for sure is that whoever the coach is, he is going to have to kill it in the transfer portal to do well next year because there is very little coming back from the current squad as all of the starters and nearly all of the production from this year is graduating.
Click to expand...
Agreed, you can't make any sort of predictions based on the roster at this point. However, you basically have to if you're Coyle, because if the team ends up winning 3-6 conference games, what exactly was the point of leaving CBJ in place? So projecting based on limited information is what ADs need to do.

A big part of sports is hope. If you can't sell results, you need to sell hope. Fair or not, that's how the human psyche works. If CBJ stays, you have neither. If they fire CBJ and get a new coach, that guy could have the same record as what CBJ could have produced. However, the new coach will have more support and fanfare (assuming it's not a total dud hire again) whether they deserve it or not. Because that person can sell hope.
 


forever a gopher said:
Agreed, you can't make any sort of predictions based on the roster at this point. However, you basically have to if you're Coyle, because if the team ends up winning 3-6 conference games, what exactly was the point of leaving CBJ in place? So projecting based on limited information is what ADs need to do.

A big part of sports is hope. If you can't sell results, you need to sell hope. Fair or not, that's how the human psyche works. If CBJ stays, you have neither. If they fire CBJ and get a new coach, that guy could have the same record as what CBJ could have produced. However, the new coach will have more support and fanfare (assuming it's not a total dud hire again) whether they deserve it or not. Because that person can sell hope.
Click to expand...
There's little chance they even win 7 B1G games next year without Dawson Garcia, much less the 10 + that would be required to make the NCAAs. This is an exercise in futility.
 

Is Coyle really foolish enough to think Ben is going to pull a miracle next year or is he just that scared of Marcus Fuller, LaVelle and Jim Souhan? Either way his job should be on the line now too.
 

forever a gopher said:
Agreed, you can't make any sort of predictions based on the roster at this point. However, you basically have to if you're Coyle, because if the team ends up winning 3-6 conference games, what exactly was the point of leaving CBJ in place? So projecting based on limited information is what ADs need to do.

A big part of sports is hope. If you can't sell results, you need to sell hope. Fair or not, that's how the human psyche works. If CBJ stays, you have neither. If they fire CBJ and get a new coach, that guy could have the same record as what CBJ could have produced. However, the new coach will have more support and fanfare (assuming it's not a total dud hire again) whether they deserve it or not. Because that person can sell hope.
Click to expand...
Don't disagree with anything you said here. I was on board with Ben coming back in year 4 after the improvement in year 3. But there is nothing in year 4 that makes me think bigger and better things are in store for year 5.

I would fully expect season ticket renewals to crater and there won't be new buyers looking to get those tickets. Apathy is already really high around the program and bringing Johnson back for year 5 will just make that worse.

Will still follow the program and hope for the best but if this all ends up being true and Johnson is back next year it will be very disappointing.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Whalen got 5 years....so giving Ben one more year would bring him even with her.
Click to expand...
Pitino also got 5 years under Coyle, so I can’t see him having the balls to invite the troubles with certain local constituencies that would come with not giving Johnson the same number of years as those two.
 


WindyCityGopher said:
Pitino also got 5 years under Coyle, so I can’t see him having the balls to invite the troubles with certain local constituencies that would come with not giving Johnson the same number of years as those two.
Click to expand...

You aren't wrong but Pitino had an NCAA berth, an NIT championship, and NCAA consideration at some point in three of his first four years. This guy hasn't even been close in any of his first four years. So frustrating.
 



I would think this is a reflection of them not having the money to attract the quality of coach they want as much as anything. The reasons for firing him are obvious, that goes without saying. In the long run, change for change's sake doesn't benefit you either, just puts you on the hook for 4-5 years with someone else you got on the cheap that's a roll of the dice. They need to make a splash with their next hire, hiring Tauer or Medved isn't doing that.
 

GopherNuts said:
I would think this is a reflection of them not having the money to attract the quality of coach they want as much as anything. The reasons for firing him are obvious, that goes without saying. In the long run, change for change's sake doesn't benefit you either, just puts you on the hook for 4-5 years with someone else you got on the cheap that's a roll of the dice. They need to make a splash with their next hire, hiring Tauer or Medved isn't doing that.
Click to expand...
This is my stance on it. If you're going to fire him there should be a plan in place to attract a big time coach. A big time coach isn't touching this job without guarantees of NIL and revenue sharing. I'm of the opinion that a mid major coach who's had a good year or 2 isn't going to meaningfully change the program.
 

howeda7 said:
Screw Mark Coyle, Ben and this program. I can't take it anymore. Wake me when he's fired or they make an NCAA tournament.
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I swear Coyle must be looking at another universe when watching these teams. Bad roster makeup, bad offensive sets, bad lineup combinations, bad defense strategy. I've played, watched, and coached a lot of basketball, you can't look at the product on the floor and tell me that this is OK. Just watching these mid-low major teams in these tournaments, you can see well coached teams with a plan and strategy and it's executed.
 

Johnnyboy18 said:
This is my stance on it. If you're going to fire him there should be a plan in place to attract a big time coach. A big time coach isn't touching this job without guarantees of NIL and revenue sharing. I'm of the opinion that a mid major coach who's had a good year or 2 isn't going to meaningfully change the program.
Click to expand...

That might be true but doesn't that become a "chicken or the egg" argument? How do you attract NIL donations with the record of the current coach? Part of his issue is he is so uninspiring and a perpetual expectations wet blanket. PJ Fleck with all his quirks works in the same environment but exceeds expectations to the point of competing well against everybody but the really big fish in the B1G (OSU/Michigan/Penn State/Oregon). We now shoot for Northwestern in basketball?
 

GopherNuts said:
I would think this is a reflection of them not having the money to attract the quality of coach they want as much as anything. The reasons for firing him are obvious, that goes without saying. In the long run, change for change's sake doesn't benefit you either, just puts you on the hook for 4-5 years with someone else you got on the cheap that's a roll of the dice. They need to make a splash with their next hire, hiring Tauer or Medved isn't doing that.
Click to expand...
Johnnyboy18 said:
This is my stance on it. If you're going to fire him there should be a plan in place to attract a big time coach. A big time coach isn't touching this job without guarantees of NIL and revenue sharing. I'm of the opinion that a mid major coach who's had a good year or 2 isn't going to meaningfully change the program.
Click to expand...
This is the "death spiral" post I made in the other thread. It's practically impossible to increase the financial component without greater fan interest in the program and excitement in the community. You can't get those things back to where they were before (sold-out building with a waiting list) in the absence of on-court success, and that ain't happening with an incapable person in the head coach position. So you either accept the current situation as your lot or you do something...anything to change your lot. Everyone knows that one definition of insanity, so I won't repeat it here.

This is a better basketball town than most. Any city who continues to love the Timberwolves after all we've been through with them is also ready to embrace a successful college team. The city and state have before, and they would again. Don't try to convince me otherwise.
 


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