ESPN's FPI Chances To Win Remaining Games

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RogueGopher

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Gophers Remaining games:

MINNESOTA
10/29 - vs Rutgers - 88.5%
11/5 - at Nebraska - 72.1%
11/12 - vs Northwestern - 92.2%
11/19 - vs Iowa - 71.2%
11/26 - at Wisconsin - 42.0%

Illinois and Purdue remaining games:

ILLINOIS
10/26 - at Nebraska - 68.3%
11/5 - vs Mich State - 63.7 %
11/12 - vs Purdue - 58.2%
11/19 - at Michigan - 11.8%
11/26 - at Northwestern - 83.8%

PURDUE
10/26 - BYE
11/5 - vs Iowa - 70.4%
11/12 - at Illinois - 41.8%
11/19 - Northwestern - 90.5%
11/26 - at Indiana - 73.2%


Path to Indy still remains with the following scenario:

1666547854590.png

Can be Co-division champs in other scenarios but can't win any tiebreaker scenarios even with Nebraska or Iowa in the mix.
 
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Current lines on ESPN for 10/29

MINN -12.0 vs RUTG
ILL -5.5 @ NEB
 


I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Nebraska beat Illinois in Lincoln. NU fans have very much rallied around Mickey Joseph, and the team really has been playing better for him.
 


RogueGopher said:
Path to Indy still remains with the following scenario:

View attachment 21299

Can be Co-division champs in other scenarios but can't win any tiebreaker scenarios even with Nebraska or Iowa in the mix.
Click to expand...

Thank you for posting this. The table is easy to understand and tells the story really well.

None of this looks impossible; in fact, most of it seems rather probable. The biggest exception, in my mind at least, is Illinois losing at home to Michigan State. Second most unlikely (to me) is Purdue losing to Iowa, only because the Hawkeye offense is... well... you know.

The most important part (obviously): the Gophers have to get their mojo back.
 
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Week 10 update:

MINNESOTA
11/5 - at Nebraska - 77.2% - up 5.1% since last week
11/12 - vs Northwestern - 93.2% - up 1.0%
11/19 - vs Iowa - 73.3% - up 2.2%
11/26 - at Wisconsin - 45.0% - up 3.0%

ILLINOIS
11/5 - vs Mich State - 68.2% - up 4.5% since last week
11/12 - vs Purdue - 62.3% - up 4.1%
11/19 - at Michigan - 13.0% - up 1.2%
11/26 - at Northwestern - 85.7% - up 1.9%

PURDUE
11/5 - vs Iowa - 69.2 % - down 1.2%
11/12 - at Illinois - 37.7% - down 4.1%
11/19 - Northwestern - 90.3% - down 0.2%
11/26 - at Indiana - 73.6% - up 0.4%


- With Illinois beating Nebraska last weekend the math for Gophers to win the division outright is essentially 0 now. Co-champs also still very unlikely.
- Against Michigan, Michigan State showed they know how to fight, just not on the football field. Illinois should handle them easily I'd imagine.
- Purdue vs Iowa, I have no clue, probably favor the home team, but Iowa can defend and get some turnover luck to make things interesting.

The Miracle Path:
1667240190275.png
 

So Illinois needs to lose 3 of 4. Pretty unlikely, but stranger things have happened. Northwestern could rise up and do us a solid!
 




RogueGopher said:
Week 10 update:

MINNESOTA
11/5 - at Nebraska - 77.2% - up 5.1% since last week
11/12 - vs Northwestern - 93.2% - up 1.0%
11/19 - vs Iowa - 73.3% - up 2.2%
11/26 - at Wisconsin - 45.0% - up 3.0%

ILLINOIS
11/5 - vs Mich State - 68.2% - up 4.5% since last week
11/12 - vs Purdue - 62.3% - up 4.1%
11/19 - at Michigan - 13.0% - up 1.2%
11/26 - at Northwestern - 85.7% - up 1.9%

PURDUE
11/5 - vs Iowa - 69.2 % - down 1.2%
11/12 - at Illinois - 37.7% - down 4.1%
11/19 - Northwestern - 90.3% - down 0.2%
11/26 - at Indiana - 73.6% - up 0.4%


- With Illinois beating Nebraska last weekend the math for Gophers to win the division outright is essentially 0 now. Co-champs also still very unlikely.
- Against Michigan, Michigan State showed they know how to fight, just not on the football field. Illinois should handle them easily I'd imagine.
- Purdue vs Iowa, I have no clue, probably favor the home team, but Iowa can defend and get some turnover luck to make things interesting.

The Miracle Path:
View attachment 21489
Click to expand...
Could you put this in a tweet and then start a new thread of your tweet every time you update it? That's my preferred way of getting info.

I kid I kid.
 






RogueGopher said:
Week 10 update:

MINNESOTA
11/5 - at Nebraska - 77.2% - up 5.1% since last week
11/12 - vs Northwestern - 93.2% - up 1.0%
11/19 - vs Iowa - 73.3% - up 2.2%
11/26 - at Wisconsin - 45.0% - up 3.0%

ILLINOIS
11/5 - vs Mich State - 68.2% - up 4.5% since last week
11/12 - vs Purdue - 62.3% - up 4.1%
11/19 - at Michigan - 13.0% - up 1.2%
11/26 - at Northwestern - 85.7% - up 1.9%

PURDUE
11/5 - vs Iowa - 69.2 % - down 1.2%
11/12 - at Illinois - 37.7% - down 4.1%
11/19 - Northwestern - 90.3% - down 0.2%
11/26 - at Indiana - 73.6% - up 0.4%


- With Illinois beating Nebraska last weekend the math for Gophers to win the division outright is essentially 0 now. Co-champs also still very unlikely.
- Against Michigan, Michigan State showed they know how to fight, just not on the football field. Illinois should handle them easily I'd imagine.
- Purdue vs Iowa, I have no clue, probably favor the home team, but Iowa can defend and get some turnover luck to make things interesting.

The Miracle Path:
View attachment 21489
Click to expand...
Thanks for doing this.
 

Week 11 update:

MINNESOTA
11/12 - vs Northwestern - 91.4% - down 1.8% from previous week
11/19 - vs Iowa - 67.7% - down 5.6%
11/26 - at Wisconsin - 42.7% - down 2.3%

ILLINOIS
11/12 - vs Purdue - 65.5% - up 3.2%
11/19 - at Michigan - 10.6% - down 2.4%
11/26 - at Northwestern - 85.7% - up 1.9%

PURDUE
11/12 - at Illinois - 34.5% - down 3.2%
11/19 - Northwestern - 85.5% - down 4.8%
11/26 - at Indiana - 71.2% - down 2.4%

- Michigan State beating Illinois opened the door again for the rest of the West, including Minnesota.
- Purdue at Illinois outcome will determine the remaining path for Gophers to win outright.
--- Purdue win - Gophers win out + Purdue loss to Northwestern OR Indiana
--- Illinois win - Gophers win out + Illinois loss to Michigan AND Northwestern
--- Minnesota has benefit of 2 of final 3 at home, ILL and PUR both have 2 of final 3 on road. All 3 play final game on the road.
 

RogueGopher said:
Week 11 update:

MINNESOTA
11/12 - vs Northwestern - 91.4% - down 1.8% from previous week
11/19 - vs Iowa - 67.7% - down 5.6%
11/26 - at Wisconsin - 42.7% - down 2.3%

ILLINOIS
11/12 - vs Purdue - 65.5% - up 3.2%
11/19 - at Michigan - 10.6% - down 2.4%
11/26 - at Northwestern - 85.7% - up 1.9%

PURDUE
11/12 - at Illinois - 34.5% - down 3.2%
11/19 - Northwestern - 85.5% - down 4.8%
11/26 - at Indiana - 71.2% - down 2.4%

- Michigan State beating Illinois opened the door again for the rest of the West, including Minnesota.
- Purdue at Illinois outcome will determine the remaining path for Gophers to win outright.
--- Purdue win - Gophers win out + Purdue loss to Northwestern OR Indiana
--- Illinois win - Gophers win out + Illinois loss to Michigan AND Northwestern
--- Minnesota has benefit of 2 of final 3 at home, ILL and PUR both have 2 of final 3 on road. All 3 play final game on the road.
Click to expand...
Another Illinois upset and things are starting to open up again for the entire west Division.
Gophers hold on vs NW there will be a 4 way tie at the end of the day.
 

RogueGopher said:
Another Illinois upset and things are starting to open up again for the entire west Division.
Gophers hold on vs NW there will be a 4 way tie at the end of the day.
Click to expand...

The Iowa and Wisconsin games are always the most important games of the season.

That is especially true this year.
 

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