***
Michigan State lost two of its three incredible offensive playmakers (running back Kenneth Walker III and wide receiver Jalen Nailor), plus four starting offensive linemen; winning close games just got trickier.
How much of Michigan State's 2021 growth was sustainable? It's really easy to talk yourself into Mel Tucker. Michigan State certainly has, rewarding him with the contract of a national title winner -- 10 years, $95 million -- after his Spartans enjoyed a single good season. He's as charismatic as he is intense. He has coached for Jim Tressel, Nick Saban and Kirby Smart. He has been an NFL defensive coordinator. He mastered the transfer portal in 2021, bringing in Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker III and watching him play most of the year at the level of a Heisman contender.
Both the contract and the hype have set off my "Too much, too soon!" alarm bells, though. Even an 11-2 season took him only to 18-14 as a head coach, and Michigan State was probably a little too successful in close games last year. The Spartans took a clear and definitive step forward as a program in 2021, but SP+ saw them more as an eight- to nine-win team, not 11, and that makes setting expectations for 2022 tricky.
They still have quarterback Payton Thorne and receiver Jayden Reed, one of the best deep route runners in college football. They still have nine of the 12 defenders who logged 400-plus snaps last season. They've again dipped into the portal, adding disruptive linebackers Jacoby Windmon (UNLV) and Aaron Brule (Mississippi State), cornerback Ameer Speed (Georgia) and running backs Jarek Broussard (Colorado) and Jalen Berger (Wisconsin), among others.
They're hitting the same notes they hit last season, and it's possible that they clear a similar bar. But with five games against projected top-25 teams and trips to revenge-hungry Michigan and Penn State on tap, this feels more like a "hold your serve" kind of season -- win seven or eight games, solidify some of last year's gains, and further position yourself as a top-15 or 20 level program moving forward. An eight-win season would be fine.
(Of course, I said six wins would be great last season. What do I know?)
Michigan State lost two of its three incredible offensive playmakers (running back Kenneth Walker III and wide receiver Jalen Nailor), plus four starting offensive linemen; winning close games just got trickier.
How much of Michigan State's 2021 growth was sustainable? It's really easy to talk yourself into Mel Tucker. Michigan State certainly has, rewarding him with the contract of a national title winner -- 10 years, $95 million -- after his Spartans enjoyed a single good season. He's as charismatic as he is intense. He has coached for Jim Tressel, Nick Saban and Kirby Smart. He has been an NFL defensive coordinator. He mastered the transfer portal in 2021, bringing in Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker III and watching him play most of the year at the level of a Heisman contender.
Both the contract and the hype have set off my "Too much, too soon!" alarm bells, though. Even an 11-2 season took him only to 18-14 as a head coach, and Michigan State was probably a little too successful in close games last year. The Spartans took a clear and definitive step forward as a program in 2021, but SP+ saw them more as an eight- to nine-win team, not 11, and that makes setting expectations for 2022 tricky.
They still have quarterback Payton Thorne and receiver Jayden Reed, one of the best deep route runners in college football. They still have nine of the 12 defenders who logged 400-plus snaps last season. They've again dipped into the portal, adding disruptive linebackers Jacoby Windmon (UNLV) and Aaron Brule (Mississippi State), cornerback Ameer Speed (Georgia) and running backs Jarek Broussard (Colorado) and Jalen Berger (Wisconsin), among others.
They're hitting the same notes they hit last season, and it's possible that they clear a similar bar. But with five games against projected top-25 teams and trips to revenge-hungry Michigan and Penn State on tap, this feels more like a "hold your serve" kind of season -- win seven or eight games, solidify some of last year's gains, and further position yourself as a top-15 or 20 level program moving forward. An eight-win season would be fine.
(Of course, I said six wins would be great last season. What do I know?)