ESPN: What College Football Playoff expansion could learn from the 2026 World Cup

BleedGopher

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Per ESPN:

In this summer's expanded FIFA World Cup, the entire world got a taste of peak March Madness. And it loved what it saw. Lower seeds -- in this case, small or unproven countries like Cape Verde and Congo DR -- defined the early part of the tournament, pulling upsets (it's soccer, so draws count as upsets) and giving us a bracket we didn't quite expect. The heavyweights eventually took over, but despite the fact that this was the biggest and longest World Cup ever, the underdogs gave the tournament almost endless momentum. Something breathless was almost always happening. It was great.

Of course, being the biggest World Cup -- 48 teams in all, up from 32 in 2022 -- had its advantages: We had more underdogs, and therefore more had opportunities to make noise. Not all of them did, but there were few mega-blowouts. The underdogs came to play, as I was confident they would. And getting to watch the celebrations when Cape Verde qualified for the knockout rounds (where they would damn near beat Argentina) was one of the cooler sports moments of the decade.

Despite naysaying from a number of fans and journalists, and despite extremely apt judgments regarding why FIFA wanted to expand the World Cup -- an even larger money cannon, plus the votes president Gianni Infantino needs to remain in office -- I was extremely confident that expansion would pay off precisely because of the March Madness angle. Pure law of averages suggested we would get upsets and chaos in the early going. And the floor for soccer has risen enough that if you're, say, the 44th-best team in the world, the gap between you and the top teams isn't as vast as it once was. Congo DR, for instance, has half its roster (13 of 26 players) playing in major leagues in England, Spain or France.

The underdog buzz from the early weeks of this tournament was so strong that, when I would put on my college football hat and do a radio bit the moment after a huge result, I would inevitably get asked the same question: If the expanded World Cup is this awesome, what does that say about the expanded College Football Playoff that is being proposed?

Hypothetical 2025 CFP with all conference champions​

First round

  • 17 Arizona at 16 USC
  • 24 Kennesaw State at 9 Alabama
  • 21 Duke at 12 BYU
  • 20 JMU at 13 Texas
  • 22 Boise State at 11 Notre Dame
  • 19 Tulane at 14 Vanderbilt
  • 23 Western Michigan at 10 Miami
  • 18 Michigan at 15 Utah
Second round

  • USC/Arizona at 1 Indiana
  • Alabama/KSU at 8 Oklahoma
  • BYU/Duke at 5 Oregon
  • Texas/JMU at 4 Texas Tech
  • Notre Dame/Boise State at 11 Ole Miss
  • Vandy/Tulane at 3 Georgia
  • Miami/WMU at 7 Texas A&M
  • Utah/Michigan at 2 Ohio State
Who would have been more excited about making the dance: the field's Italy (Michigan) or the field's Cape Verde (Kennesaw State)? And what outcome would have resonated more in the long term: Michigan reaching the quarterfinals or Kennesaw State upsetting Alabama in the first round? Per SP+, the odds of the latter would have actually been slightly greater than the former.


Go Gophers!!
 


I get wanting to capture the unpredictability and intensity of the World Cup or March Madness in football when there are so many teams, but at the end of the day, their two respective sports are are fairly different. I think the distance between teams, both in terms of talent and depth, is overall smaller simply because of the roster sizes. That extends to teh size of the offensive and defensive lines, too.

On top of that, though, the existing playoff format at 12 has already given several opportunities for lower ranked teams to make a splash with Boise State, James Madison, Tulane and Southern Methodist. They've all been underdogs but were given a shot, that's already an improvement over where the BCS and original CFP were at.

All things considered, I'd say a 12 team tournament has been fine, though I'm not opposed to a slight expansion. Adding a couple more teams can work to avoid something like last year where 10/11-win teams like Notre Dame, BYU, Vanderbilt and Utah were left out. Same with 2024 with Miami and BYU.

But if we’re looking at other teams left out in 2024, I’m not quite sure Illinois, Syracuse, Missouri or Colorado, all with 9 wins at the end of the regular season, would have gone very far. Same with 9 win USC, Arizona and Michigan teams, all in the CFP top 25 to end the season.

The 10s area of the rankings, whether it's the AP, Coaches, or CFP Committee, are always debatable, but I think once you get to the teams ranked 16-25, there starts to be a bit of a gap compared to 1-15. I'd say, max it at 16, which would be sufficient in making sure the best teams are in the mix while lending an opportunity for some underdogs, too.
 


The qualifying rounds were pretty underwhelming with so many teams earning berths.

Same will happen to CFB regular season if they expand the playoffs too much.
That’s true but the bigger issue than that was the group stage being so low stakes due to 2/3 of the 3s making it
 


I get wanting to capture the unpredictability and intensity of the World Cup or March Madness in football when there are so many teams, but at the end of the day, their two respective sports are are fairly different. I think the distance between teams, both in terms of talent and depth, is overall smaller simply because of the roster sizes. That extends to teh size of the offensive and defensive lines, too.

On top of that, though, the existing playoff format at 12 has already given several opportunities for lower ranked teams to make a splash with Boise State, James Madison, Tulane and Southern Methodist. They've all been underdogs but were given a shot, that's already an improvement over where the BCS and original CFP were at.

All things considered, I'd say a 12 team tournament has been fine, though I'm not opposed to a slight expansion. Adding a couple more teams can work to avoid something like last year where 10/11-win teams like Notre Dame, BYU, Vanderbilt and Utah were left out. Same with 2024 with Miami and BYU.

But if we’re looking at other teams left out in 2024, I’m not quite sure Illinois, Syracuse, Missouri or Colorado, all with 9 wins at the end of the regular season, would have gone very far. Same with 9 win USC, Arizona and Michigan teams, all in the CFP top 25 to end the season.

The 10s area of the rankings, whether it's the AP, Coaches, or CFP Committee, are always debatable, but I think once you get to the teams ranked 16-25, there starts to be a bit of a gap compared to 1-15. I'd say, max it at 16, which would be sufficient in making sure the best teams are in the mix while lending an opportunity for some underdogs, too.
I get everything you’re saying. But if Illinois wouldn’t go that far and people are getting paid…then what’s the harm in having them get beat?
I’d love to see 16 with all conference champs who are in a formulaic top 25 automatically in.

Then the committee picks the other team and the seeds
 

Run of the mill G5 conference champions are never going to do anything in the tournament. The MAC hasn’t had a worthy team since Fleck coached there.
 




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