ESPN Ranks the 33 undefeated NCAAF teams (gophers 13th)

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13. Minnesota (3-0)​

SP+ and FPI rankings: 16th and 19th
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 129th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.2%
What they did in Week 3: defeated Colorado 49-7
Why they're still unbeaten: All-around dominance of weak opposition. All three of Minnesota's nonconference opponents rank 112th or worse in SP+, and the Gophers predictably cruised by a combined 149-17. That might not mean much, but their success comes on the back of a strong rise to 21st in SP+ last season. Tanner Morgan and the Gophers have a track record.
Why they're ranked here: It's impossible to completely trust PJ Fleck's team as a Big Ten West contender (or even front-runner) until we see it against a team with a pulse. The next two games -- against wounded Michigan State on the road and Purdue at home -- should tell us what we need to know.

This is behind a paywall but ESPN+ is part of the Disney+ package for me so its a nice perk of having a 2 year old.

www.espn.com

Ranking college football's 33 unbeaten teams: Blue bloods, easy paths and stunners

And then there were 33. Bill Connelly ranks the remaining undefeated teams, from CFP contenders to stunning turnarounds.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 

Crazy that we are the only unbeaten left in the West while everyone but Michigan State is still unbeaten in the East.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Crazy that we are the only unbeaten left in the West while everyone but Michigan State is still unbeaten in the East.
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Very strange.

The Gophers are behind Ohio St, PSU and Michigan in these rankings--fwiw.
 


The 12 unbeaten teams ranked above the Gophers comprise a good list.

#12 USC
#11 Kentucky
#10 OK State
#9 Tennessee
#8 Penn State
#9 Ole Miss
#6 Clemson
#5 Oklahoma
#4 Michigan
#3 Ohio State
#2 Alabama
#1 Georgia

They rank Washington below us at #15 and Arkansas at #16.

Maryland is at #18, Rutgers is at #29, and Indiana at #32.

Coastal Carolina is the lowest ranked unbeaten (#33).
 


cjbfbp said:
The 12 unbeaten teams ranked above the Gophers comprise a good list.

#12 USC
#11 Kentucky
#10 OK State
#9 Tennessee
#8 Penn State
#9 Ole Miss
#6 Clemson
#5 Oklahoma
#4 Michigan
#3 Ohio State
#2 Alabama
#1 Georgia

They rank Washington below us at #15 and Arkansas at #16.

Maryland is at #18, Rutgers is at #29, and Indiana at #32.

Coastal Carolina is the lowest ranked unbeaten (#33).
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Yeah when put into the perspective of one spot below a top 10 team with an infinite money hack and we look pretty good.
 

At least 4 of the 3-0 teams will lose this week. Gophers need to stay in this list.
 

The ESPN unbeaten ranks have been updated after week 4. Week 4 trimmed the list from 33 to 21. The Gophers are ranked #10 among this group.

1) Georgia
2) Alabama
3) OSU
4) Michigan
5) Clemson
6) Tennessee
7) OK State
8) Ole Miss
9) Penn State
10) Minnesota
11) USC
12) Kentucky
13) NC State
14) Washington
15) Florida State
16) UCLA
17) TCU
18) Kansas
19) James Madison
20) Syracuse
21) Coastal Carolina

Minnesota's entry:

SP+ and FPI rankings: 7th and 14th

Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 9.4%

What they did in Week 4: defeated Michigan State 34-7

Why they're ranked here: The Golden Gophers feasted on the tastiest of cupcakes to start the year, but their pummeling of Michigan State last week was quite a statement. The Gophers are first in the nation in points per drive and fourth in points per drive allowed; in the name of "it's not who you play, it's how," they've proved everything they possibly can so far this year.

Now they just have to keep doing it -- first against oddballs such as Purdue and Illinois, then against a high-level Penn State team Oct. 22 in Happy Valley.
 

Apparently beating bad teams with huge margins and massive statistical advantages is more impressive than having an early string of barely beating middling opponents.

I distinctly remember the early season struggles of barely beating middling programs in the early part of 2019 costing the Gophers dearly in the court of public opinion. As the Gophers piled up win after win and ran their record all the way up to 9-0, it was the same story every week. "Yeah, but they had tight games with South Dakota State and Georgia Southern." It would show up everywhere. Especially among opposing fan bases as they convinced themselves they would win their matchup with the Gophers.

This go around, people are certainly mentioning how bad the first three opponents were, but that acknowledgement doesn't seem to be convincing those outside of MN that the Gophers aren't good. In fact, I'd even argue that the win over Michigan State is being seen as TOO impressive. Time will tell but I wonder if MSU has dropped off considerably and aren't evidence of the Gophers greatness.
 



Schnauzer said:
Apparently beating bad teams with huge margins and massive statistical advantages is more impressive than having an early string of barely beating middling opponents.

I distinctly remember the early season struggles of barely beating middling programs in the early part of 2019 costing the Gophers dearly in the court of public opinion. As the Gophers piled up win after win and ran their record all the way up to 9-0, it was the same story every week. "Yeah, but they had tight games with South Dakota State and Georgia Southern." It would show up everywhere. Especially among opposing fan bases as they convinced themselves they would win their matchup with the Gophers.

This go around, people are certainly mentioning how bad the first three opponents were, but that acknowledgement doesn't seem to be convincing those outside of MN that the Gophers aren't good. In fact, I'd even argue that the win over Michigan State is being seen as TOO impressive. Time will tell but I wonder if MSU has dropped off considerably and aren't evidence of the Gophers greatness.
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I'll be rooting hard for MSU to beat Maryland. This could bolster the Goph's resume`. However, that game probably revolves around which team's defense is worse. I'm skeptical that MSU can stop Maryland on even a few drives. Turnovers will be key.
 

Four North Carolina schools on the list, very unusual for a state that's supposed to college basketball hotbed only. (By the way, the Gophers play the Tar Heels next year and in 2024.)
 

GoForGold said:
Four North Carolina schools on the list, very unusual for a state that's supposed to college basketball hotbed only. (By the way, the Gophers play the Tar Heels next year and in 2024.)
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There is only one North Carolina school in the updated list. Clemson and Coastal Carolina are in South Carolina and James Madison is in Virginia.
 

Schnauzer said:
Apparently beating bad teams with huge margins and massive statistical advantages is more impressive than having an early string of barely beating middling opponents.

I distinctly remember the early season struggles of barely beating middling programs in the early part of 2019 costing the Gophers dearly in the court of public opinion. As the Gophers piled up win after win and ran their record all the way up to 9-0, it was the same story every week. "Yeah, but they had tight games with South Dakota State and Georgia Southern." It would show up everywhere. Especially among opposing fan bases as they convinced themselves they would win their matchup with the Gophers.

This go around, people are certainly mentioning how bad the first three opponents were, but that acknowledgement doesn't seem to be convincing those outside of MN that the Gophers aren't good. In fact, I'd even argue that the win over Michigan State is being seen as TOO impressive. Time will tell but I wonder if MSU has dropped off considerably and aren't evidence of the Gophers greatness.
Click to expand...
The reality is that in terms of things like rankings and national perception style points do matter. Look at all the Power 5 teams across the country struggling with lesser opponents. No one disputes that we have benefitted from a soft schedule, but the complete domination to this point has caught a lot of people's attention.

2019 helps this year as well because even though it was a couple seasons ago, there is a track record that says we just might be for real. In 2019 there was no high level success to look back on to justify how we were doing.

Best advice to Gopher fans is sit back and enjoy the ride. We will be tested at some point, we will have some tough games and may even lose a few along the way. Time will tell if we are ready to compete with the big dogs.

For now just enjoy that this team is kicking butt each weekend and the offense looks much more like the really fun 2019 unit than the one that took the field the past 2 years. That combined with a strong defense and solid special teams means we could be setup for a great season.

I just hope Crawford remembers how to punt the ball and the long snapper is able to get it back to him. They have had very few live game reps to work on their craft :)
 



cjbfbp said:
There is only one North Carolina school in the updated list. Clemson and Coastal Carolina are in South Carolina and James Madison is in Virginia.
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You missed NC State so 2 North and 2 South

edit - nevermind - North Carolina isn't on the new list so yeah 1 North and 2 South.
 

MNVCGUY said:
You missed NC State so 2 North and 2 South

edit - nevermind - North Carolina isn't on the new list so yeah 1 North and 2 South.
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Yep, I was thinking Duke was still undefeated too.
 

Schnauzer said:
This go around, people are certainly mentioning how bad the first three opponents were, but that acknowledgement doesn't seem to be convincing those outside of MN that the Gophers aren't good. In fact, I'd even argue that the win over Michigan State is being seen as TOO impressive. Time will tell but I wonder if MSU has dropped off considerably and aren't evidence of the Gophers greatness.
Click to expand...
Have you noticed the subtext from several sources that (paraphrasing), "You can't give Minnesota credit for beating Michigan State, because Michigan State is so bad that they lost to Minnesota." This attitude isn't widespread, but it's persistent where you find it.

It kind of reminds me of the old joke: "I wouldn't date any woman whose standards are so low that she would go out with me."
 

everybody knows my name said:
Have you noticed the subtext from several sources that (paraphrasing), "You can't give Minnesota credit for beating Michigan State, because Michigan State is so bad that they lost to Minnesota." This attitude isn't widespread, but it's persistent where you find it.

It kind of reminds me of the old joke: "I wouldn't date any woman whose standards are so low that she would go out with me."
Click to expand...

Or, Groucho Marx's old line of "I wouldn't belong to a club that would have me as a member."

But, I don't agree that we are being dissed. I think the Gophers are getting the respect they deserve both quantitatively and qualitatively so far this season.

First quantitatively: Notice that ESPN ranks the Gophers as #14 in their power rankings and #7 in their S&P rankings. Sagarin has the Gophers ranked #10 in the overall rankings and #4 in the "RECENT" rankings. Massey also has the Gophers at #10. The AP and Coaches Polls aren't quite as kind but they are the least "scientific" of the rankings and are more prone to the bias of the voters. You can expect those polls to lag the quantitative rankings when it comes to elevating newbies and demoting mainstays.

As far as qualitative remarks, the Gophers are getting pretty much unanimous praise for what they've done so far. Yes, commenters mention the weakness of the first three opponents but that's simply the facts of those opponents' records and quantitative rankings.
 

MNVCGUY said:
You missed NC State so 2 North and 2 South

edit - nevermind - North Carolina isn't on the new list so yeah 1 North and 2 South.
Click to expand...

One thing you should note in the Minnesota narrative above. ESPN ranks the Gophers #7 in the S&P ratings. That's a pretty lofty position. But, per S&P probability simulations, you'll see that the Gophers' chances of going 12-0 in the regular season are only about 9.4%.

I'm more impressed by quantitative probabilities than I am by qualitative observations of message board posters like "I think we can beat anyone on our schedule" or "I don't see anyone on our schedule who should beat us." The simple fact of the matter is that only 2 or 3 teams out of a 130+ end up with undefeated regular seasons each year so projecting something like that just doesn't make sense when you consider the odds. If it happens, great, but that's very unlikely to happen, even for the #7 ranked S&P team.
 

At least 3 undefeated teams will lose this weekend, but only 1 (Clemson) of the 6 teams involved in the guaranteed loss games is ranked above Minnesota on this list.

A Gophers win keeps them in elite company
 

MNVCGUY said:
The reality is that in terms of things like rankings and national perception style points do matter. Look at all the Power 5 teams across the country struggling with lesser opponents. No one disputes that we have benefitted from a soft schedule, but the complete domination to this point has caught a lot of people's attention.

2019 helps this year as well because even though it was a couple seasons ago, there is a track record that says we just might be for real. In 2019 there was no high level success to look back on to justify how we were doing.

Best advice to Gopher fans is sit back and enjoy the ride. We will be tested at some point, we will have some tough games and may even lose a few along the way. Time will tell if we are ready to compete with the big dogs.

For now just enjoy that this team is kicking butt each weekend and the offense looks much more like the really fun 2019 unit than the one that took the field the past 2 years. That combined with a strong defense and solid special teams means we could be setup for a great season.

I just hope Crawford remembers how to punt the ball and the long snapper is able to get it back to him. They have had very few live game reps to work on their craft :)
Click to expand...
Do we have a long snapper? And if Crawford got confused about Bye week and went to Mall of America Saturday would Coach notice?
 

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