ESPN: How each Top 25 college football team wins next season's national title

[Taji34]

19. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Coming off an 11-2 season, including a decisive win against Auburn in the Outback Bowl, the Golden Gophers are most certainly a program on the rise. It's possible for the Big Ten champion to get left out of the playoff, but let's go ahead and assume a conference title will result in a playoff berth. From a scheduling standpoint, the Gophers are positioned well. They don't play Penn State or Ohio State in the regular season (although neither does Wisconsin) and play Michigan at home. If quarterback Tanner Morgan builds off his impressive sophomore season under new coordinator Mike Sanford, the Gophers should be in the mix. --Bonagura

How each top 25 team wins the national title

Feel like celebrating next January? Here's what each of the nation's best teams needs to win it all next season.

www.espn.com

 

[IceBoxGopher]

Air raid with Morgan and Bateman

 

[Mitu]

Iowa will be a huge early test, especially for our young defense. They return their best players at OL, RB, WR, and TE. If we can beat them, I feel very optimistic about how the rest of our season will shake out.

 

[Urbandale]

Iowa will be a huge early test, especially for our young defense. They return their best players at OL, RB, WR, and TE. If we can beat them, I feel very optimistic about how the rest of our season will shake out.

I agree they'll be a big test, because Iowa is always rock solid. But they do lose their best OL - Tristan Wirfs, who will almost certainly be a top 10 pick in the draft.

 

[Mitu]

I agree they'll be a big test, because Iowa is always rock solid. But they do lose their best OL - Tristan Wirfs, who will almost certainly be a top 10 pick in the draft.

Forgot about Wirfs, I was thinking about Alaric Jackson. He got hurt early last year, but I think he was their highest potential guy last year.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I agree they'll be a big test, because Iowa is always rock solid. But they do lose their best OL - Tristan Wirfs, who will almost certainly be a top 10 pick in the draft.

And of course there is the small issue of having a brand new starting QB with very limited starting experience under his belt by that point. I have no doubt they will be solid as usual, but I am glad we are playing them early next year because it may take the new QB some time to find his footing.

 

[Taji34]

Iowa will be a huge early test, especially for our young defense. They return their best players at OL, RB, WR, and TE. If we can beat them, I feel very optimistic about how the rest of our season will shake out.

Didn't they also lose their best TE to the draft as well?

 

[Spaulding!No!]

And of course there is the small issue of having a brand new starting QB with very limited starting experience under his belt by that point. I have no doubt they will be solid as usual, but I am glad we are playing them early next year because it may take the new QB some time to find his footing.

as if having a QB with 3-5 yr experience even matters.

 

[Jeshurun]

Pretty sure only one team can win it.

 

[Mitu]

Didn't they also lose their best TE to the draft as well?

No, LaPorta, their best TE, was a freshman.

 

[Mitu]

And of course there is the small issue of having a brand new starting QB with very limited starting experience under his belt by that point. I have no doubt they will be solid as usual, but I am glad we are playing them early next year because it may take the new QB some time to find his footing.

This is a great point, though Petras has better and more developed weapons around him that Nate Stanley did.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

They lost Epenesa. He toyed with us last year on passing downs. Iowa is always tough on defense, and seems to have the Gophers' number, but Epenesa will be tough to replace.

 

[MNVCGUY]

This is a great point, though Petras has better and more developed weapons around him that Nate Stanley did.

You just never know how a young QB is going to respond. Some take off quickly and others take a while to develop. Hopefully we are able to generate more pressure next season with the D-Line so that we can get in his face some and make him uncomfortable.

On paper this really feels like one we should win (at least at the moment, things may change between now and next fall). At home and early in the year before Iowa has time to get things figured out on offense.

 

[Schnauzer]

just curious: if an SEC team won the outback bowl in dominant fashion (statistically), finished the year ranked #10 in the AP and Coach's polls and returned the bulk of their offensive starters, would this fictitious SEC team be ranked 7 places behind the team it beat in the Outback Bowl in ESPN's "too early" preseason poll for the following season?

As others have said, I am glad to be playing Iowa earlier. Hopefully they are due for one of their 7-5 seasons that always seem to pop up for them.

 

[MNVCGUY]

just curious: if an SEC team won the outback bowl in dominant fashion (statistically), finished the year ranked #10 in the AP and Coach's polls and returned the bulk of their offensive starters, would this fictitious SEC team be ranked 7 places behind the team it beat in the Outback Bowl in ESPN's "too early" preseason poll for the following season?

As others have said, I am glad to be playing Iowa earlier. Hopefully they are due for one of their 7-5 seasons that always seem to pop up for them.

Think we all know the answer to the first part. We are still the new kids when it comes to the ranked teams so we will have a lot of people looking for us to "prove it" this season. As long as we are ranked I really don't care where at the start of the season.

The rankings in September are pretty meaningless, but it is much easier to move up if you start out ranked then it is if you start out unranked.

 

[Mitu]

just curious: if an SEC team won the outback bowl in dominant fashion (statistically), finished the year ranked #10 in the AP and Coach's polls and returned the bulk of their offensive starters, would this fictitious SEC team be ranked 7 places behind the team it beat in the Outback Bowl in ESPN's "too early" preseason poll for the following season?

As others have said, I am glad to be playing Iowa earlier. Hopefully they are due for one of their 7-5 seasons that always seem to pop up for them.

Keep in mind that an outside observer also sees this as "Minnesota loses 6+ starters, including a Consensus All-American on defense, while losing an All B1G 1st Team WR and their starting RB on offense". They dont benefit from the more nuanced understanding that most of this board has, and frankly, wont bother to until we're consistently a ranked team.

 

[die hard gopher]

just curious: if an SEC team won the outback bowl in dominant fashion (statistically), finished the year ranked #10 in the AP and Coach's polls and returned the bulk of their offensive starters, would this fictitious SEC team be ranked 7 places behind the team it beat in the Outback Bowl in ESPN's "too early" preseason poll for the following season?

As others have said, I am glad to be playing Iowa earlier. Hopefully they are due for one of their 7-5 seasons that always seem to pop up for them.

If this this fictitious SEC team were Vandy, Kentucky or a team like Arkansas that doesn’t typically pull in top 25 classes then yes. If it was a team like Florida or Georgia that pulls in top 10 classes every year than no.

 

[giveme]

just curious: if an SEC team won the outback bowl in dominant fashion (statistically), finished the year ranked #10 in the AP and Coach's polls and returned the bulk of their offensive starters, would this fictitious SEC team be ranked 7 places behind the team it beat in the Outback Bowl in ESPN's "too early" preseason poll for the following season?

As others have said, I am glad to be playing Iowa earlier. Hopefully they are due for one of their 7-5 seasons that always seem to pop up for them.

I think it’s in part because MN football was in a trough from 1969 until just last year. For God’s sake, coming into 2019, we hadn’t lost less than 3 conference games since 1973. I don’t know how many other FBS teams held that distinction. Vanderbilt, probably. But who else?

There’s a perception in the outside world that this year is a one year fluke. I’m not saying I agree with that perception, but honestly I think it’s pretty easy to understand that perception.

 

[gophernut1]

For preseason rankings they are a combination of previous year, who is returning and recruiting rankings.

When people who do the rankings can trust that your next guy up is a stud athlete you will get ranked better. When they think your next guy up is lucky to be playing at a P5 you get ranked poorly. What this tells us is they know out talent from recruiting is a 35-45th ranked team. If our last few recruiting classes were top 15-25 we get ranked

 

[Veritas]

And of course there is the small issue of having a brand new starting QB with very limited starting experience under his belt by that point. I have no doubt they will be solid as usual, but I am glad we are playing them early next year because it may take the new QB some time to find his footing.

But not our seven new defensive starters? I'm a big believer in impact players. Very good players can not replace impact players. Johnson, Winfield and Coughlin were impact players. Fortunately, Iowa lost two as well. We'll see.

 

[WinLoseOrTy]

I think it’s in part because MN football was in a through from 1969 until just last year. For God’s sake, coming into 2019, we hadn’t lost less than 3 conference games since 1973. I don’t know how many other FBS teams held that distinction. Vanderbilt, probably. But who else?

Nobody in one of the Power 5 conferences.

Closest is Iowa State (5-2 in 1977) and Kentucky (6-0 in 1977).

Vanderbilt went 4-2 in 1982.

 

[giveme]

Nobody in one of the Power 5 conferences.

Closest is Iowa State (5-2 in 1977) and Kentucky (6-0 in 1977).

Vanderbilt went 4-2 in 1982.

Holy cow. I had no idea about that.

That's awful.

But, with that being said, Iowa State was only playing 7 conference games when they went 5-2 and Vandy was only playing 6 conference games when they went 4-2. Minnesota has been playing at least 8 conference games every season.

 

[John Galt]

I bet if we just throw to the Tight Ends 7 times per game the natty is ours!

 

[PitinoFan]

I bet if we just throw to the Tight Ends 7 times per game the natty is ours!

Or...maybe just against Iowa in the red zone when they have our WRs blanketed. Or...against Wisconsin in heavy snowfall when they’re daring Morgan to try to complete deep passes with no time in the pocket. Or...against Auburn in a bowl game....

Honestly, I don’t think TE usage alone would have mattered in the Wisconsin game. The Iowa game, on the other hand....

 

[cjbfbp]

I agree they'll be a big test, because Iowa is always rock solid. But they do lose their best OL - Tristan Wirfs, who will almost certainly be a top 10 pick in the draft.

We have them early and they will have a new starting QB so both of those would be expected to help. Of course, they also lost Espeneza which is good news for all of their opponents.

 

[John Galt]

Or...maybe just against Iowa in the red zone when they have our WRs blanketed. Or...against Wisconsin in heavy snowfall when they’re daring Morgan to try to complete deep passes with no time in the pocket. Or...against Auburn in a bowl game....

Honestly, I don’t think TE usage alone would have mattered in the Wisconsin game. The Iowa game, on the other hand....

Yeah - on all those long completions to Bateman and Johnson, we should have thrown a 5 yard check down to Ko Kieft. Or wait, it was only plays that didn’t work where we should have thrown to the TE?

 

[PitinoFan]

Yeah - on all those long completions to Bateman and Johnson, we should have thrown a 5 yard check down to Ko Kieft. Or wait, it was only plays that didn’t work where we should have thrown to the TE?

Any objective observer knows our offense was mostly ineffective in those two losses, assuming points on the board matters?