dpodoll68
Elite Poster
- Joined
- Nov 24, 2008
- Messages
- 19,323
- Reaction score
- 971
- Points
- 113
I guess they don't teach the difference between rankings and winning probabilities at madison.
ESPN FPI has Gophers best in West
- Thread starter swingman
- Start date
I guess they don't teach the difference between rankings and winning probabilities at madison.
Section2
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2009
- Messages
- 56,182
- Reaction score
- 9,252
- Points
- 113
Wow, what a garbage ranking even ignoring the gophers and the Big 10.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Could be they consider Wisconsin a better team but Minnesota has a more favorable schedule.
hello-world
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 27, 2016
- Messages
- 2,700
- Reaction score
- 1,703
- Points
- 113
Haha, they have Minnesota as slight favorites to win the West because of our favorable schedule, not because we're the strongest team in the West.
I'm too lazy to actually code that one out and double check them right now, but they are very low on Wisconsin for no reason, so I don't think I would get the same result.
hello-world
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 27, 2016
- Messages
- 2,700
- Reaction score
- 1,703
- Points
- 113
Did the same calculation with SP+ numbers over 10,000 simulated seasons:
Wisconsin shared part of the B1G West lead 8774 times.
Iowa shared part of the B1G West lead 2460 times.
Minnesota shared part of the B1G West lead 2330 times.
Nebraska shared part of the B1G West lead 601 times.
Northwestern shared part of the B1G West lead 110 times.
Purdue shared part of the B1G West lead 155 times.
Illinois shared part of the B1G West lead 0 times.
[Finished in 3.8s]
Same calculation for the B1G East:
Ohio State shared part of the B1G East lead 7935 times.
Michigan shared part of the B1G East lead 5868 times.
Penn State shared part of the B1G East lead 4192 times.
Michigan State shared part of the B1G East lead 1351 times.
Indiana shared part of the B1G East lead 123 times.
Maryland shared part of the B1G East lead 15 times.
Rutgers shared part of the B1G East lead 0 times.
[Finished in 8.7s]
I don't think the Gophers are going to be favorites to win the B1G West this year, and I think the B1G East actually has more parity at the top that the B1G West.
Caveat: Last year this same formula did not give Northwestern great odds so who knows.
Last edited:
They have multiple teams with losing records last year ranked. I believe this is just some random fan throwing P5 teams on a board and putting numbers 1-25 next to them.