ESPN: Big Ten spring preview: Top storyline, newcomer to watch for each team

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Big Ten spring preview: Can Ohio State knock off Michigan, and who wins the West?

While new coaches and new quarterbacks are in the Big Ten spotlight, Michigan returns experience as it seeks to win the Big Ten for the third straight year.
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For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, the Big Ten had multiple teams selected, with Michigan and Ohio State making it in 2022. This fall, Michigan and Ohio State could be joined by Penn State as top-10 teams in the preseason and all three should be capable of making a run at the CFP.

That's not even including a potential undefeated team from the Big Ten West, with your three crossovers always pivotal. Iowa and Illinois don't face either Ohio State or Michigan while Wisconsin misses Michigan but hosts Ohio State. Minnesota, however, plays at Ohio State and hosts Michigan.

As the league prepares for one final year at 14 schools before USC and UCLA come from the Pac-12 prior to the 2024 season, new coaches at Wisconsin (Luke Fickell), Nebraska (Matt Rhule) and Purdue (Ryan Walters) should energize the Big Ten West race. In the Big Ten East, new quarterbacks at both Ohio State (Kyle McCord) and Penn State (Drew Allar) will be two of the most prominent positions to watch while Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is perhaps the most experienced signal-caller returning in the conference. -- Baumgartner

i

Minnesota​

Top storyline: The Gophers are losing running back Mo Ibrahim to the NFL, which is a huge blow to the offense. Ibrahim set school rushing records during his time at Minnesota and was the heart of the offense, with 1,665 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns last season. The next-best mark was shared by Trey Potts and Bryce Williams, who each had three rushing touchdowns. Replacing that production at running back will be a tough task and an important piece of whether or not the offense will have success in 2023.

Newcomer to watch: Running back Sean Tyler transferred in from Western Michigan to try to help replace Ibrahim's stats. Tyler had 1,027 yards and seven rushing touchdowns last season for the Broncos. -- VanHaaren
 






Taylor, Tyler and Evans are exciting prospects for the RB room.
Imagine the "new" offense allowing an elevated passing attack to open up the run...would be amazing.
 

Off-GridTNgopher said:
This... I expect Evans to be the guy before the season is out
Click to expand...

But does there have to be "the guy?"

If the Gophers can have 2 or 3 quality backs sharing the work-load, I'm fine with that. there is more than one way to run an offense. You can have one workhorse back getting 25-30 carries a game, or you can have 2 or three backs working in tandem.

that approach worked out pretty well when the Gophers had Maroney, Barber, Tapeh, Russell, etc.

the obvious benefit of a multi-back approach is that if one guy gets hurt, that doesn't have to derail your entire rushing attack.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
But does there have to be "the guy?"

If the Gophers can have 2 or 3 quality backs sharing the work-load, I'm fine with that. there is more than one way to run an offense. You can have one workhorse back getting 25-30 carries a game, or you can have 2 or three backs working in tandem.

that approach worked out pretty well when the Gophers had Maroney, Barber, Tapeh, Russell, etc.

the obvious benefit of a multi-back approach is that if one guy gets hurt, that doesn't have to derail your entire rushing attack.
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Yes, I agree with you; there can be an effective multi-back approach... and there often has been under Fleck.

At one time not so very long ago, Rodney Smith, Shannon Brooks, Mo Ibrahim and Bryce Williams split time carrying the ball in the Gopher offense.

More recently, the three to four back approach was quite successful with Potts, Williams, Thomas and Irving in 2021, after Mo went down in the opener.

I think Fleck and the staff saw Ibrahim as a very special talent... and he clearly is. Mo always seemed like the type of back who needed to get quite a few carries to get really going, at which point he'd simply bulldoze and wear down the opposing defense.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
But does there have to be "the guy?"

If the Gophers can have 2 or 3 quality backs sharing the work-load, I'm fine with that. there is more than one way to run an offense. You can have one workhorse back getting 25-30 carries a game, or you can have 2 or three backs working in tandem.

that approach worked out pretty well when the Gophers had Maroney, Barber, Tapeh, Russell, etc.

the obvious benefit of a multi-back approach is that if one guy gets hurt, that doesn't have to derail your entire rushing attack.
Click to expand...
The guy = majority of touches
 



To have dominant running backs there has to be a dominant OL.
It helps to have the threat of a good passing game.
This is being Mr. Obvious but it needs to be mentioned.
 

For me the Top Storyline makes sense - it's losing Mo and how the Gophers respond. But rather than framing this from an RB response, for me it's about whether AK can elevate the passing game to alleviate what will likely be a less productive RB situation.
 

Plato said:
To have dominant running backs there has to be a dominant OL.
It helps to have the threat of a good passing game.
This is being Mr. Obvious but it needs to be mentioned.
Click to expand...

Yes, of course. Just for the sake of reference, below is a list of Big Ten teams and the percent of their plays that were rushing and passing during this past season. The table is sorted from largest to smallest rushing percentage.

1678640059953.png

No surprises with the rushing percentage leader and last place team. Supposedly we have passed at a lower percentage than any teams other than the service academies in the last couple of years and one only has to watch a Purdue game recently to know their clear preference. I didn't know that Indiana was very similar to Purdue in its mix but I guess that's because I hardly ever think about Indiana.

Given that Fleck made recruiting two experienced and accomplished receivers an immediate priority, one would think he intends to expand the passing game a bit. While we're unlikely to lower our rushing percentage down to the Iowa/Penn State midpoint of the league, perhaps we could move closer to the Michigan or Wisconsin percentage.
 
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cjbfbp said:
Yes, of course. Just for the sake of reference, below is a list of Big Ten teams and the percent of their plays that were rushing and passing during this past season. The table is sorted from largest to smallest rushing percentage.

View attachment 24529

No surprises with the rushing percentage leader and last place team. Supposedly we have passed at a lower percentage than any teams other than the service academies in the last couple of years and one only has to watch a Purdue game recently to know their clear preference. I didn't know that Indiana was very similar to Purdue in its mix but I guess that's because I hardly ever think about Indiana.

Given that Fleck made recruiting two experienced and accomplished receivers an immediate priority, one would think he intends to expand the passing game a bit. While we're unlikely to lower our rushing percentage down to the Iowa/Penn State midpoint of the league, perhaps we could move closer to the Michigan or Wisconsin percentage.
Click to expand...

One factor to consider with Indiana is that they were 4-8 last year, and six of the losses were by at least 14 points. That would tend to force a team to pass more than it might like.
 
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cjbfbp said:
Yes, of course. Just for the sake of reference, below is a list of Big Ten teams and the percent of their plays that were rushing and passing during this past season. The table is sorted from largest to smallest rushing percentage.

View attachment 24529

No surprises with the rushing percentage leader and last place team. Supposedly we have passed at a lower percentage than any teams other than the service academies in the last couple of years and one only has to watch a Purdue game recently to know their clear preference. I didn't know that Indiana was very similar to Purdue in its mix but I guess that's because I hardly ever think about Indiana.

Given that Fleck made recruiting two experienced and accomplished receivers an immediate priority, one would think he intends to expand the passing game a bit. While we're unlikely to lower our rushing percentage down to the Iowa/Penn State midpoint of the league, perhaps we could move closer to the Michigan or Wisconsin percentage.
Click to expand...
Did MN face as many eight and nine-men defensive fronts as WI did?
I read WI was, after the service academies close to #1 in facing fronts like that.
Trying not to be pedantic but it would have been better to round the passing, rushing, and % to two significant figures.
 

cjbfbp said:
View attachment 24529
Click to expand...

Interesting stats, and thanks for posting. Here's something I find to be especially eye-catching...

The won-lost records of the four teams that had the highest run percentage:

Minnesota (9-4)
Michigan (13-1)
Wisconsin (7-6)
Illinois (8-5)

TOTAL won-lost record for the top 4 rushing teams:

37-16 (.698 win pct.)

-----

The won-lost records of the four teams that had the highest pass percentage:

Purdue (8-6)
Indiana (4-8)
Michigan State (5-7)
Maryland (8-5)

TOTAL won-lost record for the top 4 passing teams:

25-26 (.490 win pct.)

-----

Hmmmm... maybe having a run-heavy offense isn't all bad after all.
 
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RememberMurray said:
Interesting stats, and thanks for posting. Here's something I find to be especially eye-catching...

The won-lost records of the four teams that had the highest run percentage:

Minnesota (9-4)
Michigan (13-1)
Wisconsin (7-6)
Illinois (8-5)

TOTAL won-lost record for the top 4 rushing teams:

37-16 (.698 win pct.)

-----

The won-lost records of the four teams that had the highest pass percentage:

Purdue (8-6)
Indiana (4-8)
Michigan State (5-7)
Maryland (8-5)

TOTAL won-lost record for the top 4 passing teams:

25-26 (.490 win pct.)

-----

Hmmmm... maybe having a run-heavy offense isn't all bad after all.
Click to expand...
Agree that a run heavy offense, when successful, probably means a better chance to win given you have a good defense. Not on your list are OSU and PSU, both had more balanced approach.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Agree that a run heavy offense, when successful, probably means a better chance to win given you have a good defense. Not on your list are OSU and PSU, both had more balanced approach.
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Well, let's see; I compared the four teams with the most rushing attempts to the four teams with the most passing attempts; that adds up to 8 of 14 B1G teams. Let's close the loop and do the remaining six teams, who would constitute the "most balanced" group. They are:

Rutgers (4-8)
Nebraska (4-8)
Iowa (8-5)
Penn State (11-2)
Ohio State (11-2)
Northwestern (1-11)

TOTAL won-lost record of the "most balanced" group:

39-36. (.520 win pct.)

-----

Win percentage final, complete 2023 B1G comparison:

The four teams with the most rushing attempts: .698 win pct.

The four teams with the most passing attempts: .490 win pct.

The six teams with the most balanced offenses: .520 win pct.
 
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Gophers1992 said:
The stat that correlates highest to win % is kneel downs. Clearly we should be kneeling as often as possible.
Click to expand...
I’d love to see the “Victory Formation” on the first play of the game. In your face confidence. “Boom!,” says John Madden from football Valhalla.
 

RememberMurray said:
Well, let's see; I compared the four teams with the most rushing attempts to the four teams with the most passing attempts; that adds up to 8 of 14 B1G teams. Let's close the loop and do the remaining six teams, who would constitute the "most balanced" group. They are:

Rutgers (4-8)
Nebraska (4-8)
Iowa (8-5)
Penn State (11-2)
Ohio State (11-2)
Northwestern (1-11)

TOTAL won-lost record of the "most balanced" group:

39-36. (.520 win pct.)

-----

Win percentage final, complete 2023 B1G comparison:

The four teams with the most rushing attempts: .698 win pct.

The four teams with the most passing attempts: .490 win pct.

The six teams with the most balanced offenses: .520 win pct.
Click to expand...
Except that the groupings of 4-6-4 is pretty arbitrary, for instance, if you did 5-4-5 instead, the balanced group comes out on top.

Rush heavy 5: 41-24 (.631)
Balanced 4: 34-17 (.666)
Pass heavy 5: 26-37 (.41)

So you can slice it to show either rush heavy or balanced did better, and all that really points to is that teams that can pass and rush tend to rush heavily once the game is in their grasp, swinging the numbers. All these numbers show is that if you can't run at all, you likely won't be consistently winning in the Big ten.
 

swelna said:
Except that the groupings of 4-6-4 is pretty arbitrary, for instance, if you did 5-4-5 instead, the balanced group comes out on top.

Rush heavy 5: 41-24 (.631)
Balanced 4: 34-17 (.666)
Pass heavy 5: 26-37 (.41)

So you can slice it to show either rush heavy or balanced did better, and all that really points to is that teams that can pass and rush tend to rush heavily once the game is in their grasp, swinging the numbers. All these numbers show is that if you can't run at all, you likely won't be consistently winning in the Big ten.
Click to expand...

The numbers show that if you could run successfully, you had a much better chance to succeed in the B1G in 2022.

You definitely don't need to throw the ball often to win; it does help if you can throw it efficiently when you do throw it.

I have always liked FleckBall/TresselBall. It suits the B1G quite well. I'm excited to see the Gopher offense on the field in 2023.
 

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