ESPN Big Ten Predictions

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So we’re losing to Mich, OSU, UNC and one of Iowa and Wisconsin. I can’t easily find a way to make the math work to have Wisconsin win with us having 3 conferences losses unless we’re beating one of OSU or Michigan

For us to finish 3rd in this scenario, we would have to beat one of Mich or OSU given we'd win the tiebreak over them both by west winning % unless they're picking Wisconsin to Rutgers or IU.
 

upnorthkid said:
So we’re losing to Mich, OSU, UNC and one of Iowa and Wisconsin. I can’t easily find a way to make the math work to have Wisconsin win with us having 3 conferences losses unless we’re beating one of OSU or Michigan

For us to finish 3rd in this scenario, we would have to beat one of Mich or OSU given we'd win the tiebreak over them both by west winning % unless they're picking Wisconsin to Rutgers or IU.
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Yeah, having the top 3 teams (with MN in third) with the same conference record confuses the heck out me. Considering we play Michigan and OSU. Do they have us beating one of them?

Maybe it’s Michigan, they have them losing one game and finishing over Ohio State.
 

NoelarBear said:
Yeah, having the top 3 teams (with MN in third) with the same conference record confuses the heck out me. Considering we play Michigan and OSU. Do they have us beating one of them?

Maybe it’s Michigan, they have them losing one game and finishing over Ohio State.
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it's the only way i can make it make sense and would make for another massive gopher slap in the face to be rolling into the last week 2 weeks of the season leading the west to lose out to OSU and WI.
 



Would be interesting to see how they broke down each record game by game. For instance they have both Michigan and Ohio State with a loss, since they put Mich first that would tell me they have Michigan beating Ohio State but wonder who they have beating Michigan.

Same for the West, with all three top teams at 6-3 some interesting tiebreakers would come into play.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Would be interesting to see how they broke down each record game by game. For instance they have both Michigan and Ohio State with a loss, since they put Mich first that would tell me they have Michigan beating Ohio State but wonder who they have beating Michigan.

Same for the West, with all three top teams at 6-3 some interesting tiebreakers would come into play.
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I have to wonder if they actually broke it down game by game. My guess is no.
 

jonnyganas said:
Without seeing the new WI team, I can't feel good predicting 9 wins for the Badgers, even if their schedule is "easy"
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I can easily see them at 6-3 in conference and 3-0 non-conference given that schedule. They could lose to all 3 matchup-plus teams on their schedule (OSU, IA, MN) and still be 9-3.

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Panthadad2 said:
I can easily see them at 6-3 in conference and 3-0 non-conference given that schedule. They could lose to all 3 matchup-plus teams on their schedule (OSU, IA, MN) and still be 9-3.

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That assumes that things go somewhat smoothly and predictably in the first steps of the Fickell era. They could trip up on unexpected teams (Nebraska did in early Frost era, we did with Purdue last year and BG not long ago). Northwestern always gives WI fits. Wazzu beat them last year at Camp Randall.
 



jonnyganas said:
That assumes that things go somewhat smoothly and predictably in the first steps of the Fickell era. They could trip up on unexpected teams (Nebraska did in early Frost era, we did with Purdue last year and BG not long ago). Northwestern always gives WI fits. Wazzu beat them last year at Camp Randall.
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That Washington State will be interesting. I don't know what kind of shape the WSU roster is in but like you point out they beat Wisconsin last year in Camp Randall and this game is at their place. Has potential to be a bit dicey for the Badgers.
 

jonnyganas said:
That assumes that things go somewhat smoothly and predictably in the first steps of the Fickell era. They could trip up on unexpected teams (Nebraska did in early Frost era, we did with Purdue last year and BG not long ago). Northwestern always gives WI fits. Wazzu beat them last year at Camp Randall.
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Agree, and with Wisconsin changing their offensive scheme, seems like it will take 2-3 years for Fickell to get in the right players for this system.
 


Panthadad2 said:
I can easily see them at 6-3 in conference and 3-0 non-conference given that schedule. They could lose to all 3 matchup-plus teams on their schedule (OSU, IA, MN) and still be 9-3.

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Problem is, if that's the case, Wisconsin doesn't win the West as ESPN has them pegged for. For Wisconsin to beat out Iowa with them both having 3 conference losses they have to win the head-to-head game.

That means Wisconsin has to lose to Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana, or Nebraska (no northwestern, as ESPN has them at 0-9 in conference) in addition to us and OSU. Who would beat them?

I might try to work this out later today, but I'm fairly certain these win-loss predictions don't actually work if you try to figure out what teams they belong to. That or ESPN is predicting some wild upsets to make the predictions work.
 




The media needs Wisc and Neb to be “relevant” in the West, even if it’s a complete fabrication. That’s how they squeeze the most clicks out of their respective fanbases before reality sets in.

Just business
 


Panthadad2 said:
I can easily see them at 6-3 in conference and 3-0 non-conference given that schedule. They could lose to all 3 matchup-plus teams on their schedule (OSU, IA, MN) and still be 9-3.

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I think Washington State get them in week 2. They got a pretty good QB coming back and their leading rusher returns as well.
 

Xerxes_ said:
I think Washington State get them in week 2. They got a pretty good QB coming back and their leading rusher returns as well.
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They’re picked as undefeated non conf and with 3 Ls in conference, so that doesn’t fit with ESPNs idea. But I agree I wouldn’t be surprised if Wash St gets them
 

When I think about Fickell, I regard him as a high-end, successful coach who: (1) has won; (2) knows why he has won; and (3) knows how to recreate the conditions that generate victories.

Guys like that know that their "system" generates wins. And -- while they'll never say it out loud -- they will ALWAYS prioritize installation of their system over choices that lead to more wins in the short term. ALWAYS.

So if there is any conflict between system installation and victories this year, I predict he'll choose system installation. For this reason, I just don't think they'll get as many victories as they "should."

BTW - I put PJ in the same category as Fickell. I give PJ the nod right now, only because his system is installed here at MN.
 

The opener for both the Gophers and Nebraska are pivotal must-win games for both teams.

It will set the tone for the rest of the season.

After all the hype talk dies down, it is time to back up the talk.
 

touchdownvikings said:
When I think about Fickell, I regard him as a high-end, successful coach who: (1) has won; (2) knows why he has won; and (3) knows how to recreate the conditions that generate victories.
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Problem with number 3 is that the conditions that lead him to winning was being at one of the best 3 programs in the AAC and having one huge upset over notre dame. I would argue it was the best AAC program. Every recent coach has had success there. The least successful of the last 4 was maybe Mark Dantonio. Tommy Tuberville won a conference title before dismantling the program.




He is now at a program that is currently pretty solidly in the 4-8 range of the conference. By 2024 they become in the 6-11 range.


I agree with most of what you said though. I’m not sure his system is a good fit at wisconsin (air raid concepts and a 4-2-5)
 

Was listening to JG, Burns and Scoggins on KFAN the other day.
They mentioned that WI has been the pre-season favorite to win the West the last 3 or 4 seasons.

JG commented "I haven't checked closely but they must not have won the division in that time cuz they fired their coach"

While it annoys me that WI is the preseason favorite, I rest easy knowing that hasn't been accurate in previous seasons.
 

MplsGopher said:
The media needs Wisc and Neb to be “relevant” in the West, even if it’s a complete fabrication. That’s how they squeeze the most clicks out of their respective fanbases before reality sets in.

Just business
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Money talks - you are spot on.
 

Nebraska is in the opposite of a must win situation, this year. Rhule has to tear down the existing house and build new from scratch, starting with a new foundation.

I wouldn’t put it past him to get them back to Bo Pelini levels of winning by year 3. But I don’t think even he has much of any expectations for year 1.
 

MplsGopher said:
Nebraska is in the opposite of a must win situation, this year. Rhule has to tear down the existing house and build new from scratch, starting with a new foundation.

I wouldn’t put it past him to get them back to Bo Pelini levels of winning by year 3. But I don’t think even he has much of any expectations for year 1.
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I think his expectations are 3-5 wins and some sort of demonstration that they have broken the "lose by a single score" curse frost had. Bowl game would be icing on the cake this year, but I think is probably expected next year.
 


Illinois has one respectable year in forever and the morons come out of the cornfields to write some articles
 

jonnyganas said:
Here's a dink's prediction for the B1G this season.
https://writingillini.com/2023/08/23/big-ten-football-standings-predictions-2023-season/10/

Gophers "come back to Earth" for a 4-8 record because schedule is tough. He also has Fickells Badgers going 12-0 so...
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Hey it got your click, so seems like it worked for them. Tis the only goal these days for random onliners. Matters naught if they’re even remotely close to correct.

Did you know Luke Altmeyer is a former 4 star who has thrown for *checks notes* 317 career yards with a completion percentage of ~52% (or 47% last year, whichever you prefer) which is *checks notes again* worse than AKs 54% last year that was said was not good. But don’t worry he will pick up right where Devito left off because he threw a couple TDs vs central Arkansas last year
 

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