ESPN 2020 FPI - Minnesota Gophers Ranked #31

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gophernut1

gophernut1

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This is bulletin board material. ESPN FPI ranks Gophers at #31, with 7.5 victories and behind WI, IA and NW in the West and the 7th best team in the B1G. Gives MN a less than 5% chance of winning the division. On top of this it give WI a 86% chance of winning the division.

I have to admit I am shocked any computer system would spit out these results unless the data being examined is seriously flawed. Which anything with ESPN is. I still can't believe how little respect this system gives to MN. The reasons WI is ranks so high is because of an efficient QB and returning players. Curious to break down where they MN will falter. It sounds like coaching transitions matter so they could be saying the change in OC will hurt our offense. Either way this is very curious.

Link: https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/season/2020/group/5
 


makes no sense....ranked behind the arrogant 'side-mouth-talker' Fitzgerald's Mildcats? Hahhahahaha...I don't think so.
 

FPI heavily weights returning production. We lost a big chunk of our starting defense, so the results are unsurprising.
 

I don't really trust FPI.
Especially when it's this far off from SP+.
 



The one factor tremendously in Wisconsin's favor is schedule. They miss both Ohio State and Penn State (easily the top two FPI teams in the entire conference). They have cross over games against Michigan, Maryland, and Indiana. Road games at Iowa and Michigan are their toughest. Given everything, that is quite favorable.

The Gopher schedule is favorable, as well, but road game at Wisconsin probably tips things a bit.
 

tjgopher said:
The one factor tremendously in Wisconsin's favor is schedule. They miss both Ohio State and Penn State (easily the top two FPI teams in the entire conference). They have cross over games against Michigan, Maryland, and Indiana. Road games at Iowa and Michigan are their toughest. Given everything, that is quite favorable.
Click to expand...
They have to play the Gophers ...
 





A couple of things. Our special teams were not good last year. They weren't even mediocre. There's no proof they'll be better this year. Our defense lost some very good players. There's no certainty they will be replaced. Then there is the mindset of the prognosticators that when teams like Ohio State or Michigan lose good players they will be replaced and when Minnesota or Indiana lose good players they won't.
 

FPI probably looks back more than a season in some respects so our 2-3 year moving average is likely dragging us down some. Also, there's a lot of unknowns on defense. Not a bad defense for sure, just unknowns.
 

Disney + Dink = Dinkney. Obviously ESPN knows nothing about sports.
 



I read a little bit about FPI out of curiosity and here is what they said.

1.) Returning production matters. (great for our offense, but defense and special team's don't help)
2.) Coaching continuation matters. Our great offense is with a new coordinator - knocks them down a notch.
3.) Previous teams do not matter, but recruiting rankings and end of year production do. Our last four games and our 2-2 record gets weighted more heavily than our 8 - 0 start.

Still hard to believe Northwestern gets put over us in this model, but I guess they return a lot of production from a very bad team, they played games tight at the end of the year and coaching stays the same.
 

gophernut1 said:
I read a little bit about FPI out of curiosity and here is what they said.

1.) Returning production matters. (great for our offense, but defense and special team's don't help)
2.) Coaching continuation matters. Our great offense is with a new coordinator - knocks them down a notch.
3.) Previous teams do not matter, but recruiting rankings and end of year production do. Our last four games and our 2-2 record gets weighted more heavily than our 8 - 0 start.

Still hard to believe Northwestern gets put over us in this model, but I guess they return a lot of production from a very bad team, they played games tight at the end of the year and coaching stays the same.
Click to expand...

Our offense could very well be the best Gopher offense ever. It has the talent and experience to do that. The defense does have a lot of new faces and you just never really know how long it will take for everything to gel.
 

Put me in the camp that thinks the offense will be better and outweigh the defense's regression. TJ6 is a big loss but we will have everyone else coming back more physically developed (I hope we have a plan for off-season strength and conditioning) and one year more experienced.
 

ESPN FPI ranking probably reflects that Wiscy has a slightly easier schdedule and calendar than the GOphers.

Wiscy plays the Gopher early this season on October 10 instead of traditionally the last game of the regular season.

Both teams have easier cross divisional games, but Wiscy has a more favorable schedule playing both cross div games early.

The Gophers play Michigan at home on Oct. 17, and MSU on the road on Oct. 31.

Wiscy plays Indiana early at home on Sept. 5, and Michigan away on Sept 26.
The Gophers have a young Defense.
 

The offense may or may not be as good next year given that we lose two key offensive players and we do not know that the injury gods will not eat us alive. The defense is too new to believe it will be as solid as was the veteran starting eleven of last season. I hope we will win all 16 games of the season, but, like every year, we will know more after the first Big Ten game of the season.
 

It ever ceases to amaze me how easy it is to push the MN fan's indignation button over a meaningless poll.
 

For the record, last year's FPI before the season turned out to be wildly incorrect, giving Ohio State and Wisconsin almost no chance of meeting in Indianapolis, let alone winning the conference championship.

Preseason 2019 FPI: OSU was 8.7% to win Big Ten (which it did handily). Wisconsin was 1.4% chance to win Big Ten (which it was a win away).
 

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