ESPN: 2013-14 Preview: Minnesota

BleedGopher

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per ESPN:

Richard Pitino has pedigree, but it's rebuilding time in Minnesota

That future revolves around Pitino, who besides the obvious influence of his father, also worked under the Gators' Billy Donovan. An advocate of analytics and intense video study, Pitino brings with him the charisma and stylistic traits of his mentors: pressing defense, drive-and-kick floor generals and lots of 3-point shots.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-col...e-basketball-preview-minnesota-golden-gophers

Go Gophers!!
 

I honestly don't see us in rebuilding mode. Sure we lose a freak athlete and a monster on the boards to graduation, but I am really excited to see what our set of guards can do in this new system. I really think Andre Hollins will flourish in the new offense, and Austin Hollins will love the defense.
 

Yeah, I think "rebuilding" has a negative connotation that's not accurate for this team. Sure this team has holes and there will be growing pains learning the new style of play, but it also has some very good returning players that a lot of new coaches don't have the luxury of inheriting.

I'd say "transition year" is a more accurate term.

I don't know if we'll make the NCAA tourney this year. But I dare say, by the *end* of the year I think we'll be a better team than we were at the end of the year last year (when we made the tourney based on our Nov-Jan play, and one game in February).
 

Gonna be a tough year. Front court defence will be a challenge with the lack of size and athletes. With all the three point shooters, scoring shouldn't be to difficult as long as we find the hot shooter and we are not selfish with the ball.
 

But I dare say, by the *end* of the year I think we'll be a better team than we were at the end of the year last year (when we made the tourney based on our Nov-Jan play, and one game in February).

I would add, the win over Wisconsin (on Valentine's Day) also helped the Gophers make the tournament. Agree with you, it wasn't a great February for the Gophers, but they still managed a couple wins that significantly enhanced/solidified their resume.
 


Gonna be a tough year. Front court defence will be a challenge with the lack of size and athletes. With all the three point shooters, scoring shouldn't be to difficult as long as we find the hot shooter and we are not selfish with the ball.


I think Eliason will be fine defensively in the middle, he might have been a little better than Mbwake was last year, what he won't be able to do is clear the boards like Mbwake did, rebounding is going to be more dependent on a team effort and might create problems, Williams was very good defensively and there is no way there isn't a dropoff there, alot depends on the 3 also, is Hollins physical enough to handle it in the B1G, and if not who do they turn to at times with Coleman gone, Ellenson might have the athleticism but he has not shown anything on the defensive end of the court yet.
 

I prefer "transition year", too. I need to see a few games to decide whether it's truly a rebuilding year. There is some talent on the roster to work with, and after underachieving last season (during the Big Ten season) who's to say the Gophers won't turn the tables and overachieve (.500 in Big Ten) in 2013-14?
 

Gonna be a tough year. Front court defence will be a challenge with the lack of size and athletes. With all the three point shooters, scoring shouldn't be to difficult as long as we find the hot shooter and we are not selfish with the ball.

Going to be a team the relies heavily on the 3 point shot. Going to be some long nights when the shots aren't falling and some pretty good scoring outputs when shots are going down. Unless the defensive can consistently create a lot of easy baskets off turnovers it appears to be an up and down season ahead in Pitino's first year.
 

its rebuilding year in the sense that we need time to get the right guys for the style of play. We've got some of them right now, but definitely not them all
 



Defense and rebounding are certainly question marks. That said, the offense should be better. Having Rodney and Joe standing around the 3-point line was a half-court offense killer, especially with the lack of imaginative coaching. Just having guys who can shoot should open up the lane.
 

I also see this as a "transition" year. Rebuilding is not what I would call it. Rodney and Mbakwe will be missed, but our back court will be very good this year. I have faith in Eliason to play solid this year as well. We will need someone to step up and fill the gap at PF. If we get decent play at the four spot, I simply don't see a regression.
 

I am expecting a step down and hopefull for improved play as the season develops.

I think we sometimes forget how good Mbakwe is and was. He led the big ten in rebounding-twice! A very good shotblocker, defensive quickness to recover. Rodney also battled well on defense and was an athlete. Let's just say we are starting with EE and Oto, backed by King and Mo. Think about that for a minute.
Look at what some of the mid tier teams in the big ten will have at the 4 and 5 spots:
Indiana: 4. Vonleh 5. Fischer/Perea
Purdue: 4. Hale/Carroll or going small 5. Hammonds
Illinois: 4. Ekey, Hill 5. Egwu
Iowa: 4 A. White/Basabe 5. Woodbury
Penn St: 4. Ross 5. Brandon taylor
Northw: 4. Abrahamson 5. Olah
I think they have Northwestern a bit to high; who knows if Crawford will be the same player. Iowa too low. A. White and Vonleh are probably the toughest matchups here. With the expected improved 3 pt shooting, and our Hollins duo, i think we can play with these teams. If Dekker is considered a 4 at Scony that's a tough matchup as well.


I also see this as a "transition" year. Rebuilding is not what I would call it. Rodney and Mbakwe will be missed, but our back court will be very good this year. I have faith in Eliason to play solid this year as well. We will need someone to step up and fill the gap at PF. If we get decent play at the four spot, I simply don't see a regression.
 

I think we sometimes forget how good Mbakwe is and was. He led the big ten in rebounding-twice! A very good shotblocker, defensive quickness to recover. Rodney also battled well on defense and was an athlete. Let's just say we are starting with EE and Oto, backed by King and Mo. Think about that for a minute.
Look at what some of the mid tier teams in the big ten will have at the 4 and 5 spots:
Indiana: 4. Vonleh 5. Fischer/Perea
Purdue: 4. Hale/Carroll or going small 5. Hammonds
Illinois: 4. Ekey, Hill 5. Egwu
Iowa: 4 A. White/Basabe 5. Woodbury
Penn St: 4. Ross 5. Brandon taylor
Northw: 4. Abrahamson 5. Olah
I think they have Northwestern a bit to high; who knows if Crawford will be the same player. Iowa too low. A. White and Vonleh are probably the toughest matchups here. With the expected improved 3 pt shooting, and our Hollins duo, i think we can play with these teams. If Dekker is considered a 4 at Scony that's a tough matchup as well.

I love how you name smaller players like Dekker and Purdue's small line up and negate the fact that if they go small that helps us out.

Also, EE and Mo will be more than fine at center for us. It's not like the Big Ten is loaded with talented 7 footers.
 




IMHO the absolute key to Gophers' success will be how much havoc they create by their pressing defense. If the answer in the B1G is "not much;" Alternatively if the answer is Frequently, then Gophs will make it to the tourney.

We'll know alot by Maui.
 

Dude has Michigan at #1 and Iowa at #9. That tells you all you need to know.
 

Well as far as Purdue is concerned their traditional 4 spot is so weak they might start a 6'6" 200 wing there. If one knows anything about Hale and Carrol they are borderline Big ten players. I agree our center combo matches up very well with these mid tier teams. So when I say things like White and Vonleh would be our toughest matchups i am also inferring the rest don't look that tough. Now do we match up well with the big 3 or 4 teams, no, but we never have, save the Indiana win last year.
Dekker plays more of a 3 unless they are going small as well. I guess we'd play Austin on him then. I agree that when teams go small, which they will if they have trouble with our press, it negates the possible rebounding advantage. Sometimes I think its helpful to look at other mid level big ten lineups as I have the tendency to say how can Oto guard Payne? Well Payne will be playing the 5 more this year. Or how can Oto stay with Ross? Thinking of the worst scenarios. How does Hale stay with either??
I love how you name smaller players like Dekker and Purdue's small line up and negate the fact that if they go small that helps us out.

Also, EE and Mo will be more than fine at center for us. It's not like the Big Ten is loaded with talented 7 footers.
 

Dude has Michigan at #1 and Iowa at #9. That tells you all you need to know.

It may happen that way, but I'm just not sure how anyone can project this season to turn out that way. Iowa finished 6th last year, and I really can't see them falling off much, and they should be better. I definitely can't see how he can put Northwestern ahead of them. I just don't know what to say about most of his predictions, so strange.

I would like to believe the Gophers can do better than 11th though, and if they can at least be reasonable in regards to turning the ball over, I think we'll snatch enough games to finish in a similar position we did last year, in that 7-9 range at least. A lot of it probably will depend on just how good the Hollins' can be in the backcourt, as well as how stout Eliason & Mo are in the paint.
 

Well as far as Purdue is concerned their traditional 4 spot is so weak they might start a 6'6" 200 wing there. If one knows anything about Hale and Carrol they are borderline Big ten players. I agree our center combo matches up very well with these mid tier teams. So when I say things like White and Vonleh would be our toughest matchups i am also inferring the rest don't look that tough. Now do we match up well with the big 3 or 4 teams, no, but we never have, save the Indiana win last year.
Dekker plays more of a 3 unless they are going small as well. I guess we'd play Austin on him then. I agree that when teams go small, which they will if they have trouble with our press, it negates the possible rebounding advantage. Sometimes I think its helpful to look at other mid level big ten lineups as I have the tendency to say how can Oto guard Payne? Well Payne will be playing the 5 more this year. Or how can Oto stay with Ross? Thinking of the worst scenarios. How does Hale stay with either??

Wisconsin has one of most inexperienced front courts in the conference. Theirs is arguably a bigger question mark than ours, especially wen you factor in that Bo doesn't play freshmen that much. I'm not arguing that our front court is a sure fire strength, I'm just trying to show you that very few teams, if any, have dominant front courts this year. As long as EE and Mo are solid, we'll be fine. We'll have a more talented and deeper backcourt than most teams we go up against.
 

Here's the full article if you don't have insider.

2013-14 Big Ten Projected Standings
1. Michigan | 2. Michigan State | 3. Ohio State | 4. Wisconsin | 5. Indiana | 6. Purdue | 7. Illinois | 8. Northwestern | 9. Iowa | 10. Penn State | 11. Minnesota | 12. Nebraska
Links to every conference



Minnesota Golden Gophers
2012-13: 21-13 (8-10)
In-conference offense: 1.04 points per possession (4th)
In-conference defense: 1.04 points per possession (8th)

When Tubby Smith was hired to take over Minnesota's basketball program in 2007, he'd won more than 70 percent of his games at both Georgia and Kentucky, captured a national title with the Wildcats in 1998 and finished in the top 20 of the AP rankings for nine seasons running. None of which happened during Smith's six seasons with the Golden Gophers, and expectations that they would resulted in the venerable coach being handed his walking papers after a disappointing 2012-13. In his place is a man who, at 31, is exactly half the age of Smith. He has a famous name and not much of a track record. Say hello to Richard Pitino.

Last season's shortfall was the final straw for Smith, who couldn't coax a .500 conference record out of a team with a strong starting core, a rare season of good health and a certain amount of star power in pro prospects Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams. After reaching the AP's top 10 in January, the Gophers proceeded to lose 11 of 16 down the stretch. Miraculously, the Gophers earned their first NCAA berth since 2010 anyway: Minnesota even won a game, knocking off UCLA before bowing out in the round of 32 against Florida, in what fans didn't realize was a glimpse of their future.

That future revolves around Pitino, who besides the obvious influence of his father, also worked under the Gators' Billy Donovan. An advocate of analytics and intense video study, Pitino brings with him the charisma and stylistic traits of his mentors: pressing defense, drive-and-kick floor generals and lots of 3-point shots.

Projected starting lineup
POS. NAME YEAR
C
Elliott Eliason
Jr.
F
Charles Buggs
Fr.
G
Austin Hollins
Sr.
G
Malik Smith
Sr.
G
Andre Hollins
Jr.
Pitino's only collegiate experience as a head coach came last season at Florida International, where he did some good things amid the carnage left over from the Isiah Thomas era. With just three scholarship players on hand, Pitino's charges improved from 8-21 to 18-14, jumped from 231st to 48th in adjusted tempo and posted the fifth-best defensive turnover rate in the country.

Along with an apparent knack for X's and O's, Pitino might give Minnesota a big stick in the recruiting game. More on that in a bit, but suffice to say, to make his brand of hoops work for the Gophers, Pitino is going to need that pipeline of talent to be fruitful.

Pitino spent much of his first summer in Minneapolis dealing with the usual coaching-change fallout. Smith's last two Gopher recruits decommitted, with Alvin Ellis ending up with Michigan State and Alex Foster joining Smith in his new gig at Texas Tech. In addition, starting wing Joe Coleman transferred to Saint Mary's. At a time of the year when most teams already had their 2013-14 rosters set, Pitino found himself with five unused scholarships.

Considering the circumstances, the new coach seems to have done just fine. Malik Smith transferred from FIU to re-join Pitino with the Gophers, and will be eligible immediately after being granted an NCAA waiver. Smith is a prolific 3-point shooter, and that's an area where Minnesota needed help even before Pitino brought his system to town.

Fellow transfer Joey King is returning to his home state after playing his freshman season at Drake. The 6-foot-9 King is a face-up big who hit 35 percent from deep during his only season with the Bulldogs.

Pitino picked up a two-star freshman in Daquein McNeil, who could eventually develop into a rotation player. He also added junior college transfer Deandre Mathieu, a 5-9 point guard with the quickness you'd expect from a player that size but also the kind of leaping ability that turns heads and wins dunk contests.

The fifth scholarship remained open through the summer after another potential FIU transfer, Rakeem Buckles, was denied his waiver request in a bizarre decision by the NCAA. Buckles played three seasons at Louisville and was emerging as a rotation player before suffering two major knee injuries. He sat out last season at FIU, which remains ineligible for postseason play because academic probation. Buckles was denied an appeal and returned to FIU.

The Gophers were further weakened by the loss of Mbakwe and Williams to the pros, but there is some decent talent on hand to go with the newcomers. Minnesota should be strong on the perimeter, led by junior point guard Andre Hollins. Hollins' ability to score and kick out off penetration should make him a nice fit for Pitino's offense. We already know Smith fits the scheme, and he'll give Hollins someone to kick to. Pitino will likely start a third guard in senior Austin Hollins -- no relation to Andre -- who averaged 10.7 points as a slasher on offense and put up a team-best steal rate on defense.

Pitino will also welcome redshirt freshman forward Charles Buggs, an athletic, inside-out power forward who could emerge as one of the more impressive newcomers in the Big Ten this season. Another player whose athleticism fits the Pitino mold is sophomore wing Wally Ellenson, who didn't play much as a freshman under Smith. Ellenson won a gold medal in the high jump over the summer during the Junior Pan Am Games.

Beyond that, Pitino will cycle through options in the frontcourt that include Oto Osenieks, Maurice Walker and Elliott Eliason. Chances are, the players with the shot-block and offensive-rebound rates will earn the big-man minutes, which bodes well for Eliason and perhaps Walker.

Pitino will be sorting through all of this while making plenty of noise on the recruiting trail. The Gophers have landed on the final lists of a number of top prospects, three of whom happen to be from the Minneapolis area. The big fish among that trio is point guard Tyus Jones, the current No. 3 player in ESPN RecruitingNation's 2014 rankings. The usual blue bloods are after Jones as well, but if Pitino were to sign him, it would be a sure sign that big things are happening for the Gophers.

Right now, it's all about potential. Pitino has coached only one season. There are big names thinking about the Gophers, but none have committed. The style of play sounds great, but with the wrong talent, that same style can lead to ugly results.

Still, the coaching change brings hope to what had become a moribund program. Richard Pitino brings with him the one thing that Tubby Smith no longer had the luxury of: A clean slate.

Projected 2013-14 conference finish:*&^!#11th
 

11th, behind Northwestern and Penn State? Come on, man.

I know everybody is biased toward their own team, including me, but barring unusual injuries or eligibility issues, I foresee us finishing anywhere from 4th to 9th.

9th as floor because I think we're better than NW, Nebraska and Penn State. 4th as ceiling because we're not in the same league as MSU, Michigan, and OSU. In the middle group, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana and us all have some big strengths and some big question marks. While 4th is unlikely, I think sneaking into 6th place would not be overly surprising.
 

I think we sometimes forget how good Mbakwe is and was. He led the big ten in rebounding-twice! A very good shotblocker, defensive quickness to recover. Rodney also battled well on defense and was an athlete. Let's just say we are starting with EE and Oto, backed by King and Mo. Think about that for a minute.
Look at what some of the mid tier teams in the big ten will have at the 4 and 5 spots:
Indiana: 4. Vonleh 5. Fischer/Perea
Purdue: 4. Hale/Carroll or going small 5. Hammonds
Illinois: 4. Ekey, Hill 5. Egwu
Iowa: 4 A. White/Basabe 5. Woodbury
Penn St: 4. Ross 5. Brandon taylor
Northw: 4. Abrahamson 5. Olah

Donnie Hale is gone from Purdue. Transferred down a level to be closer to home.

SOPH. A.J. Hammons (not Hammonds) could be a lottery pick next Spring. Let's just say Purdue is not expecting him back next year and the staff has altered their recruiting plan for bigs.

SR. Travis Carroll will be serviceable off the bench. Smart player but very limited offensively. Will not hurt you defensively.

RS-FR. Jay Simpson will get a bunch of minutes at the 4. High expectations for him last year but was redshirted because of ankle injury early in the season that never seemed to heal. People close to the program are saying he is a legit NBA prospect.

RS-Sr. Errick Peck will also see action at the 4. He is a 5th year transfer from Cornell. Averaged 10 ppg last year. Ivy League doesn't allow 5th year players so he had to transfer somewhere if he wanted to play his last year.

FR. - Basil Smotherman will get some minutes as well.
 

You think Painter needs to make the NCAA tourney this year to keep his job?

Purdue seems like the kind of team that either could surprise, or hit rock bottom. They have some pieces, but need to mold them together and re-find their grit.
 

No - Painter is not even remotely close to losing his job. They made the NCAA Tournament 6 years in a row prior to last year. He's had some shortcomings on the recruiting front namely Tyler Zeller, Brendan Dawson, and Gary Harris - players Purdue thought they had locked up only to see them go elsewhere. Gary Harris' mother was an All-American at Purdue and he grew up a huge Purdue fan but Izzo still lured him away.

If you throw out his first year - which was a disaster due to injuries and inheriting a bad roster to begin with - Painter has never finished worse than 7th in the Big Ten and that was last year. He's finished 1st or 2nd 4 times in 8 years and has won 8 NCAA Tournament games. I will admit, many Purdue fans expected a lot more than a couple Sweet 16's and 1 Big Ten title from the Hummel, Johnson, and Moore class, but Purdue ain't gonna do any better for a coach right now.

His recruiting is trending upwards. The 2013 and 2014 classes are damn good. They have the potential to be very good this year and sneak up on some people.
 

Purdue

Thanks for the Purdue info. Hammons is listed as the 53rd best prospect on Chad Ford's top 100 for next year, and the 9th best center. You would have to be a "homer" to think he could be a lottery pick. Next years draft could be the best in a decade as far as potential goes. Doesnt mean he wont be a 2nd round pick and go pro. I agree that someone mentioned Painter on the hotseat after one down year is a joke also. Simpson was the lowest (espn-rated) of the 4-- 2012 recruits. There were gopher holers who thought Trevor and Rodney were for sure first rounders also.

Donnie Hale is gone from Purdue. Transferred down a level to be closer to home.
SOPH. A.J. Hammons (not Hammonds) could be a lottery pick next Spring. Let's just say Purdue is not expecting him back next year and the staff has altered their recruiting plan for bigs.
SR. Travis Carroll will be serviceable off the bench. Smart player but very limited offensively. Will not hurt you defensively.
RS-FR. Jay Simpson will get a bunch of minutes at the 4. High expectations for him last year but was redshirted because of ankle injury early in the season that never seemed to heal. People close to the program are saying he is a legit NBA prospect.
RS-Sr. Errick Peck will also see action at the 4. He is a 5th year transfer from Cornell. Averaged 10 ppg last year. Ivy League doesn't allow 5th year players so he had to transfer somewhere if he wanted to play his last year.
 

A lot of talk nationally re: Hammons; little talk about Olah. Tsk tsk.

PS - I think Purdue has a relatively low ceiling this coming season. Not a big fan.
 

11th, behind Northwestern and Penn State? Come on, man.

I know everybody is biased toward their own team, including me, but barring unusual injuries or eligibility issues, I foresee us finishing anywhere from 4th to 9th.

9th as floor because I think we're better than NW, Nebraska and Penn State. 4th as ceiling because we're not in the same league as MSU, Michigan, and OSU. In the middle group, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana and us all have some big strengths and some big question marks. While 4th is unlikely, I think sneaking into 6th place would not be overly surprising.

I'd agree with this. When all is said and done IMHO I think we end up in that 6-8 spot. I also see wisky ending up a spot lower than us with NW, penn state and nebraska rounding out the bottom three.
 

Basketball is a Game of Inches

Thanks for the Purdue info. Hammons is listed as the 53rd best prospect on Chad Ford's top 100 for next year, and the 9th best center. You would have to be a "homer" to think he could be a lottery pick. Next years draft could be the best in a decade as far as potential goes. Doesnt mean he wont be a 2nd round pick and go pro. I agree that someone mentioned Painter on the hotseat after one down year is a joke also. Simpson was the lowest (espn-rated) of the 4-- 2012 recruits. There were gopher holers who thought Trevor and Rodney were for sure first rounders also.

Good info. I think Hammons is going in the first round at some point in time. IIRC we just missed on him and signed Buggs shortly thereafter. I've been following Coach Painter since Clem almost snagged him. I think he does a great job.
 

Hammons is listed as the 53rd best prospect on Chad Ford's top 100 for next year, and the 9th best center. You would have to be a "homer" to think he could be a lottery pick. Next years draft could be the best in a decade as far as potential goes.

Yeah - I would agree that my view is biased. I don't think Hammons will be a lottery pick this year - but from what I'm hearing it's possible if he blows up this season. NBA folks are obsessed with 7 footers with wide bodies. Unless he does blow up - he should stay in school and avoid the deep 2014 draft (like you mention).

Simpson was the lowest (espn-rated) of the 4-- 2012 recruits. There were gopher holers who thought Trevor and Rodney were for sure first rounders also.

Jay Simpson is a late bloomer of sorts. He would've been a big help last year but hurt his ankle in the Summer of 2012 playing on the AAU circuit and it just wouldn't heal. He tried playing a few games very early last season but they shut him down just before the cutoff to preserve a year of eligibility. When his ankle was healthy towards the end of last season he was dominating in practice. The NBA prospect "hype" is very similar to Mbakwe and Williams. All 3 had potential as 18-19 year olds. I guess it's up to Simpson now to improve his game to that level. Will he? I have no idea. I'm just going off reports from a few people I stay in touch with from my undergrad days that are "very close" to the program.
 

I stopped reading after I read "I think Eliason will be fine defensively in the middle, he might have been a little better than Mbwake"

Half the time last year it looked like Eliason was going to trip over his own feet while on defense?
 




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