Early look at (who'll be competing for) the Field of 65

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SelectionSunday

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Try something a little different this season as we start the winding road toward Selection Sunday. Instead of projecting a preseason Field of 65, let's take a look at a wide range of squads likely to be dancing and/or sweating it out on March 14.

I'll take my first stab at the field on December 14, after we've had a month's worth of games to get a feel for who was over-ranked or under-valued in the preseason. The bevy of quality in-season tournaments will help us sort that out.

Definite 1-Bid Leagues (14)
America East
Atlantic Sun
Big Sky
Big South
Big West
Ivy
MEAC
Northeast
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Southern
Southland
SWAC
Summit

BCS Locks (13)
Connecticut
Duke
Kansas
Kentucky
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
North Carolina
Purdue
Texas
Villanova
Washington
West Virginia

Non-BCS Locks (3)
Butler (Horizon)
Dayton (A-10)
Gonzaga (WCC)

BCS Safe Bets (13)
Boston College
Cal
Clemson
Georgetown
Illinois
Louisville
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Syracuse
Tennessee

Non-BCS Safe Bets (5)
BYU (Mountain West)
Memphis (Conference USA)
Siena (MAAC)
Tulsa (Conference USA)
Xavier (A-10)

Potential BCS At-Larges (23)
Arizona
Arkansas
Cincinnati
Florida
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Iowa State
Kansas State
Missouri
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ole Miss
Oregon State
Penn State
Pitt
Seton Hall
South Carolina
Texas A&M
UCLA
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Washington State
Wisconsin

Potential Non-BCS At-Larges (18)
Buffalo (MAC)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Duquesne (A-10)
Illinois State (Missouri Valley)
LaSalle (A-10)
Niagara (MAAC)
Northeastern (Colonial)
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
Old Dominion (Colonial)
Richmond (A-10)
Rider (MAAC)
San Diego State (Mountain West)
UNLV (Mountain West)
Utah State (WAC)
UTEP (Conference USA)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
Wright State (Horizon)

In a nutshell, to start the season I feel pretty confident about 48 of the teams that will hear their names on Selection Sunday. ... 16 locks & 18 safe bets (+ the 14 certain 1-bid league winners). At least initially, that leaves 41 teams to jostle for the remaining 17 bids. Those numbers will shrink significantly as the season progresses.
 

Like it SS, will the notebook be making a return this year?
 

Not a notebook, per se, but I'm hoping to throw something together every (or most) Monday morning about the week past and the week ahead. Not much writing, just bits & pieces, games to watch, key results, etc. Primary focus will be the Big 10, but also will include the season-long quest for at-large bids from a national perspective. Issue #1 November 9th.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Not a notebook, per se, but I'm hoping to throw something together every (or most) Monday morning about the week past and the week ahead. Not much writing, just bits & pieces, games to watch, key results, etc. Primary focus will be the Big 10, but also will include the season-long quest for at-large bids from a national perspective. Issue #1 November 9th.
Click to expand...

I look forward to reading those. You always do a great job putting stuff together that's interesting for college basketball fans at large. Keep it going.
 



While you have three MVC teams as "Potential Non-BCS At-Larges," you didn't include the Missouri Valley in your count of the "Definite 1-Bid Leagues" Shouldn't that number be 15 (not 14) and the Valley included? (Yeah, I've dropped my moniker but I'm still alert and a fervent MVC fan as well! ... :eek: )

I suspect that one of the 3 MVC teams in the "Potential Non-BCS At-Larges" will likely snare the MVC tournament (which is the lock team for the MVC) ... but that's why they play the tournament. We could go back to those heady days of 3 (or more) MVC teams in the chosen ranks.

So, it's 16 bids remaining for the 40+ teams to jostle for by my math! ...
whistilin.gif
 

Rick,

I suspect the MVC will get back to its more familiar NCAA output, at least a couple bids. The MVC certainly doesn't want to follow the same downward trend as the MAC.

It wasn't too long ago that the MAC regularly got a couple teams in the tournament, and/or then won some games while there (i.e. Kent State, Miami-Ohio). Now I can't even remember the last time the MAC -- once regarded as one of the best mid-major leagues -- received multiple bids, and they haven't won a NCAA game since 2003 (CMU).
 

You would think after 11 in a row, the Badgers could at least make a BCS safe bet. :)

Nailing the 65 on Selection Sunday is child's play. Let's see you do it in late October.
 

Bitter, GVBadger?

One question for SS. How many bids will the B10 get this year? Are will looking at 5, 6, 7 maybe even 8? And can you rank the Potential NCAA bids in the B10 in order of most to least likely to make it?

Thanks,
MNBoiler
 



My early inclination on the Big 10 would be they'll get 7 bids, the same squads as last season. ...

Purdue
Michigan State
Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio State
Illinois
Wisconsin

Would set a goal of getting 3 to the Sweet 16, and 1 or 2 to the Final 4. Certainly within reach looking at Sparty & Boilers.

Am hoping Penn State and Northwestern can get in the NCAA mix as well for maybe an 8th bid. However, usually there's at least 1 team per conference that is expected to do really well and then has a disappointing season. Hope it's not the Gophers.
 

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