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A couple months ago another GopherHole faithful posted a thread about a lazily written article that compiled a Big Ten tier list for the upcoming season. I wanted to see if I could do a better job, so here we go… Welcome to StudentSectionMenance’s Early Big Ten Tier List.
Tier 1 - National Championship contenders
This tier is for those Big Ten teams that have a legitimate shot to win the National Championship. This year only one team appears equipped to do so.
Ohio State
Ohio State came close last year, only losing a single regular season game by six points to the eventual National Champions. The Buckeyes brought back a lot of members from their suffocating defense and brought in new quarterback Will Howard, and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to try and solve an often stagnant offense. Will Howard has his share of doubters, but he was solid at Kansas State and should be even better with more talent and better coaching surrounding him at Ohio State. Overall, especially with Jim Harbaugh and much of Michigan’s roster moving on to the NFL, I do not see many teams competing with the Buckeyes this year.
However it is important to note that this year will not be a cake-walk this year with the Buckeyes having to travel to Oregon and Penn State, but this team is insanely talented and even if they drop a game, they should be (horse)shoe-ins for the now expanded 12-team playoff and will be one of, if not, the most talented roster in those playoffs.
3 hardest games: @Oregon, @Penn State, Michigan
Potential surprising upset: Iowa
X-Factor: Will Howard
Tier 2 - Playoff Contenders *reminder that the 12 team playoff starts next year
This tier is for those Big Ten teams that will be in the conversation throughout the entire season to make the newly expanded playoffs. Now can these teams make an actual run once in the playoffs? Doubtful. The gap between true title contenders and playoff contenders is still very wide and it would be a considerable upset if any of these teams go the distance and win the National Championship.
Oregon
Much like Ohio State, Oregon came close to making the playoffs this past year losing twice to Washington by a total of 6 points. Oregon was aggressive in the portal and picked up Oklahoma star QB Dillion Gabriel. Gabriel had impressive numbers at Oklahoma throwing for 3,600 passing yards and 30 TDs, as well as another 400 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. Despite these numbers, it will be hard for him, as it would be for any QB in the nation, to replace Nix’s 4,500 yards and 45 TDs passing. Many people have Oregon as title contenders, but I am skeptical. To me it hinges on Dillion Gabriel. Gabriel is a solid QB, but will he be good enough to carry Oregon all the way to a National Championship? Oregon has a talented roster, but it is not like Ohio State’s where it can win a National Title with above average QB play. Oregon will also play a much tougher schedule this year having Big Ten favorite Ohio State coming to town and traveling to defending national champs Michigan’s (big) house. However, despite questions at quarterback, a tougher schedule and a tall order to maintain production on offense, the Ducks should be more than ready to go this year and should earn a spot in the 12 team playoff. Even if they lose two games to Ohio State and Michigan, they still will be in good shape to make the playoffs. Oregon would be my second pick to win the Big Ten as if they are able to upset Ohio State at home, they should be in a very good spot to make the Big Ten Championship.
3 hardest games: Ohio State, @Michigan, @Wisconsin
Potential surprising upset: @Purdue
X-Factor: Dillion Gabriel
Michigan
How could the defending National Champs be any lower than tier 2? Despite coming off of a national championship run, the Wolverines have more questions to answer than perhaps any other team in the not named UCLA. How well will Moore replace Harbaugh? Will they be able to replace McCarthy? Who will step into the void left by Roman Wilson? They lost 14 players to the NFL draft and 24 in the portal, while only gaining one projected high impact transfer. It is not all doom and gloom for Michigan. They have many key contributors on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball returning and Michigan has recruited well for years now, so there's a chance that they will be able to replace their talent and go on a run similar to Georgia. However, the key difference is that Kirby is still in Athens, and Harbaugh is in Los Angeles. Moore did well when filling in during Harbaugh’s absences last year, which included wins over Penn State and Ohio State, but the jury is still out on whether he can guide a team through a whole season and sustain the championship culture that Harbaugh built. Overall, the Michigan Wolverines are the defending champs and have the talent to be playoff contenders, and I expect them to compete again this year.
3 hardest games: @Ohio State, Texas, Oregon
Potential surprising upset: USC
X-Factor: Sherrone Moore
Penn State
Penn State lost some talent to the draft and transfer portal this year, but brought back a talented roster. Last year they finished the regular season ranked 10th in the CFP which would’ve likely been good enough for a spot in the playoffs this year. I do not expect Penn State to drop off much, as many key contributors return and their schedule is significantly easier. The key to this season will be the offense. Last year, the only consistency the offense had in big games was that it consistently stunk. An interesting under the radar story will be how their defense performs given the departure of Defensive Coordinator Mario Cristobal. Last year, their defense kept them in those big games, but if there is any drop off after losing Cristobal, it could spell trouble, even if the offense were to improve. As long as the offense can find some consistency, and Drew Allar takes a step forward, Penn State will be in the playoffs.
3 hardest games: Ohio State, @USC, @Wisconsin
Potential surprising upset: @Minnesota
X-Factor: Drew Allar
Tier 3 - Sneaky Conference & Playoff Contenders
This tier is for those teams that at first glance, no one would think of them as legitimate conference/playoff contenders. However, these teams, with a combination of returning talent and being blessed by the scheduling gods, could make a push for a berth in the Big Ten Championship game and a spot in the newly expanded 12 team playoff.
Nebraska
I promise that I am not one of those people that always overhypes Nebraska in the preseason because of what they did in the 90s. This year, Nebraska actually has a compelling case to be considered a dark horse playoff and Big Ten contender. For starters, they bring back the most returning starters of any Big Ten teams, which at first glance does not seem like much given they went 5-7 last season. However, a closer look at Nebraska's results from last season show that this team could’ve just as easily went 10-2 as they went 5-7. Only three losses were by more than three. Of those three losses, one of them was an overtime loss. The Huskers also picked up quality pieces in the transfer portal as well, and signed the number one QB in the country in high school recruiting. This is also year three of Matt Rhule who should have his team where he wants it. Their schedule is also one of the easiest in the Big Ten, the only game they will be a significant underdog in is at Ohio State. Other than that, the rest of their schedule is filled with winnable games. I do not believe it is unreasonable to believe that with their returning starters and easy schedule that the Huskers could finish their season 11-1. Nebraska would have to go to LA and beat USC and beat Iowa for the first time in years for this to happen, but it is feasible. The biggest question mark for the Huskers this upcoming season is at QB. They did not bring in a QB from the transfer portal, but did bring in the number one QB recruit who looked impressive in his spring debut.
Three hardest games: @Ohio State, @iowa, @USC
Potential Surprising Upset: University of Northern Iowa
X-Factor: Getting rid of the curse
Iowa
Now you really think that I always buy into preseason hype, but again, that is not the case here with Iowa. Iowa always seems to be blessed by the scheduling gods, and this year is no different. The only game that they will open as significant underdogs to is a game at Ohio State. Every other game is either very winnable or they should absolutely win. There is a chance that Iowa’s only regular season loss will be to Ohio State, and if that is the case, they will undoubtedly be in the playoffs and have a very good shot to be in the Big Ten Championship. Iowa’s defense was elite last year, and looks to be very solid again despite losing All-American Cooper DeJean to the draft. Iowa’s offense has been abysmal the last couple of years, but that looks to improve with a new offensive coordinator. There is reason for concern. Iowa won by very thin margins last year and losing a significant game changer like DeJean could flip those results. Although it is almost certain that the offense will improve (because it literally could not get worse) just how much they improve is a legitimate question. If Iowa wants to take advantage of their weak schedule, they will need a playmaker on either the offense or defense to step up. Iowa could go either way, but it would not shock me if they surprise some people and end up in the playoff conversation in December.
3 hardest games: @Ohio State, @Minnesota, @Maryland
Potential surprising upset: Troy
X-Factor: Unknown Playmaker
Rutgers
I am not saying that Rutgers will actually be a good team. They got into this tier because they have the EASIEST schedule in the Big Ten and possibly of anyone in the Power Four. They only play one team (Nebraska) that is in the top three tiers of this tier list. They went 7-6 last year and their only major loss was Max Melton. They brought in two potentially impactful transfers, 4-star WR Dymere Miller and Athan Kaliakmanis to play quarterback. Kaliakmanis had a disappointing year last season as the Golden Gophers QB1, but reuniting him with his former offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca could help him realize the potential he flashed when he played under him in the 2022-2023 season. IF Ciarrocca can unlock Kaliakmanis and IF Rutgers can find someone to replace Melton, with their extremely weak schedule Rutgers could be the surprise team that is making noise late for a potential playoff berth. That being said, Rutgers could also just as easily not be bowl eligible by the end of the season, but if things go right…. Watch out.
3 hardest games: @Virginia Tech, @USC, @Nebraska
Potential surprising upset: Akon
X-Factor: Athan Kaliakmanis
Tier 4- Dream Breakers
The difference between tier 4 and tier 5? There's really not much, just that these teams happen to play a higher number of elite teams and could possibly pull off an upset in one of those games.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin will likely be a better team than their record will show at the end of the year. They have a very hard schedule this year, playing many teams that will likely be in playoff conversations. Due to their schedule, Wisconsin will have multiple opportunities to upset a potential playoff team and break their dreams of making the playoffs. Wisconsin has been mediocre the past couple years now and they look to remain the same this year. They did bring in a solid transfer class and a very solid recruiting class, but it is doubtful that will be enough to improve the team much this year. The biggest hole Wisconsin will have to solve is the one left by Braelon Allen. Allen has been the Badgers main source of offense since he stepped on campus three years ago and Fickell will have to figure out how they are going to replace that production. If Wisconsin wants any hope to be competitive this year, they will need someone to break out and fill that void. Tyler Van Dyke, transfer QB from Miami, will look to fill this role. Even if he does it is doubtful that it will be enough to make up for an otherwise average roster. Fickell in his second year could really use a marquee upset to get his program going. Look for them to upset Oregon or Penn State at home.
3 hardest games: Alabama, Oregon, Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Rutgers
X-Factor: Tyler Van Dyke
USC
USC had one of the most disappointing seasons in all of college football last year. Having a generational player at QB and only winning 7 games is ridiculous. Talent has never been a problem for USC, even though they lost a number of talented players to the transfer portal and draft, they always have more 4 or 5-stars ready to go. The problem has been getting production out of that talent. Under Lincoln Riley, USC has suffered tremendously on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, nearly every team Lincoln Riley has coached has had defensive struggles. Until he changes that narrative, I am inclined to believe that defense will be USC’s undoing this year as well. Losing Caleb Williams will inevitably hurt USC’s offense, but Miller Moss, who played outstanding in the Holiday Bowl, will hope to lessen that pain. Despite this, I cannot see a team that loses Caleb Williams doing better the following season. Like Wisconsin, USC also has multiple playoff contenders coming to visit them. Combined with long travel and a potent offense, USC could very well upset one of those teams. USC has the offense to make a playoff push and will keep them in games, but it will not be enough to overcome Riley’s defensive woes.
3 hardest games: @Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame
Potential surprising upset: @Minnesota
X-Factor: If Lincoln Riley can figure out defense
Tier 5 - Mid
This tier is for those teams that teeter on being bowl eligible. Teams that have flaws, but no fatal flaws. Teams that would not be a massive underdog against most teams. Teams that many people would expect to get blown out by a playoff contender. These teams are not good, but they're not bad either. They are simply mid.
Minnesota
Minnesota is coming off their worst year since Fleck took over. Expectations to win the West fell apart as late game meltdowns led to a complete unraveling at the end of the season emphasized by Wisconsin marching out of Huntington Bank Stadium with Axe in hand. There is optimism in Dinkytown. Following his worst season, Fleck had the best offseason of his career. Fleck brought a strong recruiting class that included players that could make a significant impact as true freshmen. Fleck followed that up by bringing in an even stronger transfer class. Minnesota is one of those teams that can go 9-3 just as easily as they can go 3-9. Minnesota added talent this offseason, but there are still a lot of questions. How will Brosmer transition to Big Ten football? Was the offense a mess last year because of Kaliakmanis or Simon and Harbarugh? Will Hetherman be able to fix a defense that broke last year? Will someone on defense step up and fill the All-American void left by Tyler Nubin? The Gophers should be going bowling, but should be thinking Vegas more than Citrus.
3 hardest games: @Michigan, Penn State, @Wisconsin
Potential surprising upset: @UCLA*
X-Factor: Coordinators
*Considered Illinois for this spot, but if they beat the Gophers, is it really a surprise?
Northwestern
Northwestern had the most shocking season of any Big Ten team last year, and possibly in the entire FBS. Last summer longtime and beloved head coach Pat Fitzgerald got fired after a team culture scandal. Many did not expect Northwestern to win more than three games, much less sneak into a bowl game. Northwestern didn’t care. NORTHWESTERN WENT 8-5, FINISHED 2ND IN THE WEST, AND WON THEIR BOWL GAME!!! A feel good season after a summer of hardship and change. Looking at this year, it is extremely unlikely that Northwestern will be able to repeat that performance from last year. Northwestern had an uninspiring offseason. They also have a tougher schedule than last year. Despite Northwestern not having a home field this year, they always have grit and should not be a team to overlook. They will win a couple games they shouldn’t, and they’ll sneak into bowl season with a 6-6 record.
3 hardest games: @Michigan, Ohio State, @iowa
Potential surprising upset: Indiana
X-Factor: Can they repeat that passion?
Maryland
Maryland had a very solid season last year going 8-5 and even gave Michigan a scare late in the season. Maryland will look to repeat this level of success this year, but they should be hoping to get into bowl season at all. Maryland had some solid wins last year, but they also had some head scratching losses. With star quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa getting denied another year of eligibility, it leaves a glaring hole at the most important position in football. Maryland did win their bowl game without Taulia, but the quarterback play was below average at best. Despite poor quarterback performance in the bowl game, Maryland failed to improve the position this offseason. Their offseason as a whole was disappointing. Without a decent quarterback it is hard for any team to win 8 games, much less Maryland. Maryland will likely make a bowl game due to a favorable schedule, but it should surprise no one if they miss one.
3 hardest games: @Oregon, @Penn State, Iowa
Potential surprising upset: @Virginia
X-Factor: Can they fill at least some of Taulia’s production?
Tier 6- Unknowns
This tier is dedicated to those teams that went through dramatic changes this offseason making it impossible to project how they will do this season. Being in this tier doesn’t mean they will be bad. It is just hard to make any real predictions with so many question marks.
Michigan State
Michigan State fired Mel Tucker in the middle of last season just after two years of signing a massive extension. Once the season mercifully ended for Sparty, they got aggressive and hired Oregon State’s head coach Jonathan Smith. Smith worked wonders at Oregon State and had them consistently in the top 25 and battling with the elites in the former Pac-12. Smith made quick work hiring his staff and pouched well respected defensive coordinator Joe Rossi from the Gophers. As is typical with a head coaching change, Michigan State brought in a large transfer class and lost a number of players to the portal. The transfers they brought in appear solid on paper, but who knows how well they will play together. Typically year zeros do not go well from programs, but with the quality of coach and transfers coming in, Michigan State could make some noise.
3 hardest games: @Michigan, @Oregon, Ohio State
Potential surprising upset: @Boston College
X-Factor: Can Smith get his culture set in one offseason?
Washington
Washington is the biggest mystery in all of college football to me. They could make the playoffs or be this year's TCU and miss bowl season all together. Washington went all the way to the National Championship, but had one of the biggest gut punches in the offseason. Everyone knew that they would lose Penix Jr. and other very talented players to the draft. Despite that, with a lot of talent set to return back and the addition of Will Rogers at QB, Washington and Deboer looked to be a force to be reckoned with coming into the Big Ten. Then it all changed. Nick Saban announced his retirement and the Alabama boosters were quick to secure another star head coach. Kalen DeBoer left Seattle for Tuscaloosa and took a lot of talent with him. Washington responded by hiring Arizona’s head coach Jedd Fisch. Fisch has brought in a solid transfer class and still has plenty of talent on Washington’s roster. Fisch had a solid season at Arizona last year going 10-3. But that has been his only year as a head coach where he has gone over .500. Washington has the talent to make a playoff push, but this year largely depends on how successful of a coach Fisch can be, and if Will Rogers can live up to the potential people thought he had under Mike Leach.
3 hardest games: Michigan, @Oregon, @Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Washington State
X-Factor: Will Rodgers and Jedd Fisch
Tier 7- Bottom Feeders
This tier is for the teams that most fan bases will caulk up as an easy win in their preseason predictions. These teams will not be going bowling and will struggle to win a conference game against a team that isn’t in this tier already. These teams should either be looking ahead to 2025 for their coach and program to finally get their footing or looking to replace their current coach.
Illinois
Big Bert exceeded expectations in 2022 by going 8-5 and having a top five pick in the NFL draft. Illinois looked like it had some momentum going into 2023 with another potential first round pick on their defense. However, Illinois returned to form and sputtered to a 5-7 finish. That 2022 season seems more like an anomaly now then a new trend as it is their only winning season since 2010. This trend of losing looks to continue this year as the Fighting Illni’s roster just cannot compete with the rest of the Big Ten. Illinois lost game changing defensive tackle Jer'zhan Newton to the NFL draft this past offseason and even though they brought in some solid defensive transfers, it is doubtful that any of them can replace the void left by Newton. On offense, Illinois did nothing to help their already pitiful offense. The defense should be OK and maybe quarterback Luke Altmyer will take a step forward and make the offense serviceable. However, with a challenging schedule and an increase in talent across the conference, it looks like Illinois will be playing their last game in November again. Although the weather will be cold by then, Big Bert’s seat will be plenty warm.
3 hardest games: Michigan, @Oregon, @Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Central Michigan
X-Factor: Luke Altmyer
Purdue
Purdue is looking at another tough year after finishing last year 4-8. Ryan Walters will have his hands full this year with a very tough schedule and limited talent. Purdue struggled mightily last year and they spent the offseason failing to address any serious needs. It is hard to not have a little sympathy for the Boilermakers. Just two years ago they were in the Big Ten Championship, and now after Jeff Brohm bailed for Louisville, they are fighting to stay relevant in the new and crowded Big Ten. It is hard to find much optimism for Purdue entering this season, except for maybe Devin Mockobee can break out and carry a horrid offense to being respectable. But for now, it looks like Purdue will spend this next offseason hanging out with a fellow in-state rival in the Bottom Feeder tier.
3 hardest games: @Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Indiana
X-Factor: Devin Mockobee
Indiana
It is a good thing that Indiana has basketball because they are B A D at football. Since the turn of the century Indiana has had three winning seasons (two have come in the last five years) and they have not won a bowl game since 1991 (could you imagine going that long without your team winning anything meaningful?). Indiana has been a bottom feeder and they will continue to be a bottom feeder in 2024. Longtime head coach Tom Allen got fired this offseason and they brought in James Madison head coach Curt Cignetti. Cignetti has done very well at James Madison, leading them to a very successful transition to FBS football. However, the Big Ten is an entirely different beast than the Sun Belt. Cignetti might be able to make Indiana respectable, but it will not happen this first year. Despite bringing a number of talented James Madison players with him, Indiana just does not have the talent to compete in the Big Ten. They could be a trap game for a team like Nebraska, but that would be the extent of their success in 2024.
3 hardest games: Michigan, @Ohio State, Nebraska
Potential surprising upset: FIU*
X-Factor: Being Overlooked
*Considered Charlotte for this spot, but I don’t know if that would be much of a shock
UCLA
Did anyone have a worse offseason than UCLA? Chip Kelly abruptly left just before spring ball to be the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. This left UCLA in a terrible spot as they had missed the coaching carousel and the first transfer window had closed, leaving UCLA with limited opportunity to replace both Chip Kelly and the talent that left with Kelly. Arguably the biggest gut punch came when former top recruit, Dante Moore, transferred out leaving UCLA fans devastated. They brought in former star Bruin, Deshaun Foster, to be their head coach. Foster is a wildcard as he has never been a head coach before. To Foster’s credit, despite being hired in a tough spot, he has brought in some quality transfer players. This shows some promise for recruiting in the future, but Foster is being thrown into the fire and will undoubtedly have some serious growing pains his first year. A first time head coach and a messy offseason is not a recipe for success in the new Big Ten. Maybe the travel will impact teams more than is anticipated and UCLA can pick up a conference win or two at home. But there is a very real chance that UCLA could go their first Big Ten season winless in conference.
3 hardest games: Oregon, @LSU, @Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Hawaii
X-Factor: Travel taking a toll on opposing teams
Tier 1 - National Championship contenders
This tier is for those Big Ten teams that have a legitimate shot to win the National Championship. This year only one team appears equipped to do so.
Ohio State
Ohio State came close last year, only losing a single regular season game by six points to the eventual National Champions. The Buckeyes brought back a lot of members from their suffocating defense and brought in new quarterback Will Howard, and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to try and solve an often stagnant offense. Will Howard has his share of doubters, but he was solid at Kansas State and should be even better with more talent and better coaching surrounding him at Ohio State. Overall, especially with Jim Harbaugh and much of Michigan’s roster moving on to the NFL, I do not see many teams competing with the Buckeyes this year.
However it is important to note that this year will not be a cake-walk this year with the Buckeyes having to travel to Oregon and Penn State, but this team is insanely talented and even if they drop a game, they should be (horse)shoe-ins for the now expanded 12-team playoff and will be one of, if not, the most talented roster in those playoffs.
3 hardest games: @Oregon, @Penn State, Michigan
Potential surprising upset: Iowa
X-Factor: Will Howard
Tier 2 - Playoff Contenders *reminder that the 12 team playoff starts next year
This tier is for those Big Ten teams that will be in the conversation throughout the entire season to make the newly expanded playoffs. Now can these teams make an actual run once in the playoffs? Doubtful. The gap between true title contenders and playoff contenders is still very wide and it would be a considerable upset if any of these teams go the distance and win the National Championship.
Oregon
Much like Ohio State, Oregon came close to making the playoffs this past year losing twice to Washington by a total of 6 points. Oregon was aggressive in the portal and picked up Oklahoma star QB Dillion Gabriel. Gabriel had impressive numbers at Oklahoma throwing for 3,600 passing yards and 30 TDs, as well as another 400 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. Despite these numbers, it will be hard for him, as it would be for any QB in the nation, to replace Nix’s 4,500 yards and 45 TDs passing. Many people have Oregon as title contenders, but I am skeptical. To me it hinges on Dillion Gabriel. Gabriel is a solid QB, but will he be good enough to carry Oregon all the way to a National Championship? Oregon has a talented roster, but it is not like Ohio State’s where it can win a National Title with above average QB play. Oregon will also play a much tougher schedule this year having Big Ten favorite Ohio State coming to town and traveling to defending national champs Michigan’s (big) house. However, despite questions at quarterback, a tougher schedule and a tall order to maintain production on offense, the Ducks should be more than ready to go this year and should earn a spot in the 12 team playoff. Even if they lose two games to Ohio State and Michigan, they still will be in good shape to make the playoffs. Oregon would be my second pick to win the Big Ten as if they are able to upset Ohio State at home, they should be in a very good spot to make the Big Ten Championship.
3 hardest games: Ohio State, @Michigan, @Wisconsin
Potential surprising upset: @Purdue
X-Factor: Dillion Gabriel
Michigan
How could the defending National Champs be any lower than tier 2? Despite coming off of a national championship run, the Wolverines have more questions to answer than perhaps any other team in the not named UCLA. How well will Moore replace Harbaugh? Will they be able to replace McCarthy? Who will step into the void left by Roman Wilson? They lost 14 players to the NFL draft and 24 in the portal, while only gaining one projected high impact transfer. It is not all doom and gloom for Michigan. They have many key contributors on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball returning and Michigan has recruited well for years now, so there's a chance that they will be able to replace their talent and go on a run similar to Georgia. However, the key difference is that Kirby is still in Athens, and Harbaugh is in Los Angeles. Moore did well when filling in during Harbaugh’s absences last year, which included wins over Penn State and Ohio State, but the jury is still out on whether he can guide a team through a whole season and sustain the championship culture that Harbaugh built. Overall, the Michigan Wolverines are the defending champs and have the talent to be playoff contenders, and I expect them to compete again this year.
3 hardest games: @Ohio State, Texas, Oregon
Potential surprising upset: USC
X-Factor: Sherrone Moore
Penn State
Penn State lost some talent to the draft and transfer portal this year, but brought back a talented roster. Last year they finished the regular season ranked 10th in the CFP which would’ve likely been good enough for a spot in the playoffs this year. I do not expect Penn State to drop off much, as many key contributors return and their schedule is significantly easier. The key to this season will be the offense. Last year, the only consistency the offense had in big games was that it consistently stunk. An interesting under the radar story will be how their defense performs given the departure of Defensive Coordinator Mario Cristobal. Last year, their defense kept them in those big games, but if there is any drop off after losing Cristobal, it could spell trouble, even if the offense were to improve. As long as the offense can find some consistency, and Drew Allar takes a step forward, Penn State will be in the playoffs.
3 hardest games: Ohio State, @USC, @Wisconsin
Potential surprising upset: @Minnesota
X-Factor: Drew Allar
Tier 3 - Sneaky Conference & Playoff Contenders
This tier is for those teams that at first glance, no one would think of them as legitimate conference/playoff contenders. However, these teams, with a combination of returning talent and being blessed by the scheduling gods, could make a push for a berth in the Big Ten Championship game and a spot in the newly expanded 12 team playoff.
Nebraska
I promise that I am not one of those people that always overhypes Nebraska in the preseason because of what they did in the 90s. This year, Nebraska actually has a compelling case to be considered a dark horse playoff and Big Ten contender. For starters, they bring back the most returning starters of any Big Ten teams, which at first glance does not seem like much given they went 5-7 last season. However, a closer look at Nebraska's results from last season show that this team could’ve just as easily went 10-2 as they went 5-7. Only three losses were by more than three. Of those three losses, one of them was an overtime loss. The Huskers also picked up quality pieces in the transfer portal as well, and signed the number one QB in the country in high school recruiting. This is also year three of Matt Rhule who should have his team where he wants it. Their schedule is also one of the easiest in the Big Ten, the only game they will be a significant underdog in is at Ohio State. Other than that, the rest of their schedule is filled with winnable games. I do not believe it is unreasonable to believe that with their returning starters and easy schedule that the Huskers could finish their season 11-1. Nebraska would have to go to LA and beat USC and beat Iowa for the first time in years for this to happen, but it is feasible. The biggest question mark for the Huskers this upcoming season is at QB. They did not bring in a QB from the transfer portal, but did bring in the number one QB recruit who looked impressive in his spring debut.
Three hardest games: @Ohio State, @iowa, @USC
Potential Surprising Upset: University of Northern Iowa
X-Factor: Getting rid of the curse
Iowa
Now you really think that I always buy into preseason hype, but again, that is not the case here with Iowa. Iowa always seems to be blessed by the scheduling gods, and this year is no different. The only game that they will open as significant underdogs to is a game at Ohio State. Every other game is either very winnable or they should absolutely win. There is a chance that Iowa’s only regular season loss will be to Ohio State, and if that is the case, they will undoubtedly be in the playoffs and have a very good shot to be in the Big Ten Championship. Iowa’s defense was elite last year, and looks to be very solid again despite losing All-American Cooper DeJean to the draft. Iowa’s offense has been abysmal the last couple of years, but that looks to improve with a new offensive coordinator. There is reason for concern. Iowa won by very thin margins last year and losing a significant game changer like DeJean could flip those results. Although it is almost certain that the offense will improve (because it literally could not get worse) just how much they improve is a legitimate question. If Iowa wants to take advantage of their weak schedule, they will need a playmaker on either the offense or defense to step up. Iowa could go either way, but it would not shock me if they surprise some people and end up in the playoff conversation in December.
3 hardest games: @Ohio State, @Minnesota, @Maryland
Potential surprising upset: Troy
X-Factor: Unknown Playmaker
Rutgers
I am not saying that Rutgers will actually be a good team. They got into this tier because they have the EASIEST schedule in the Big Ten and possibly of anyone in the Power Four. They only play one team (Nebraska) that is in the top three tiers of this tier list. They went 7-6 last year and their only major loss was Max Melton. They brought in two potentially impactful transfers, 4-star WR Dymere Miller and Athan Kaliakmanis to play quarterback. Kaliakmanis had a disappointing year last season as the Golden Gophers QB1, but reuniting him with his former offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca could help him realize the potential he flashed when he played under him in the 2022-2023 season. IF Ciarrocca can unlock Kaliakmanis and IF Rutgers can find someone to replace Melton, with their extremely weak schedule Rutgers could be the surprise team that is making noise late for a potential playoff berth. That being said, Rutgers could also just as easily not be bowl eligible by the end of the season, but if things go right…. Watch out.
3 hardest games: @Virginia Tech, @USC, @Nebraska
Potential surprising upset: Akon
X-Factor: Athan Kaliakmanis
Tier 4- Dream Breakers
The difference between tier 4 and tier 5? There's really not much, just that these teams happen to play a higher number of elite teams and could possibly pull off an upset in one of those games.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin will likely be a better team than their record will show at the end of the year. They have a very hard schedule this year, playing many teams that will likely be in playoff conversations. Due to their schedule, Wisconsin will have multiple opportunities to upset a potential playoff team and break their dreams of making the playoffs. Wisconsin has been mediocre the past couple years now and they look to remain the same this year. They did bring in a solid transfer class and a very solid recruiting class, but it is doubtful that will be enough to improve the team much this year. The biggest hole Wisconsin will have to solve is the one left by Braelon Allen. Allen has been the Badgers main source of offense since he stepped on campus three years ago and Fickell will have to figure out how they are going to replace that production. If Wisconsin wants any hope to be competitive this year, they will need someone to break out and fill that void. Tyler Van Dyke, transfer QB from Miami, will look to fill this role. Even if he does it is doubtful that it will be enough to make up for an otherwise average roster. Fickell in his second year could really use a marquee upset to get his program going. Look for them to upset Oregon or Penn State at home.
3 hardest games: Alabama, Oregon, Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Rutgers
X-Factor: Tyler Van Dyke
USC
USC had one of the most disappointing seasons in all of college football last year. Having a generational player at QB and only winning 7 games is ridiculous. Talent has never been a problem for USC, even though they lost a number of talented players to the transfer portal and draft, they always have more 4 or 5-stars ready to go. The problem has been getting production out of that talent. Under Lincoln Riley, USC has suffered tremendously on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, nearly every team Lincoln Riley has coached has had defensive struggles. Until he changes that narrative, I am inclined to believe that defense will be USC’s undoing this year as well. Losing Caleb Williams will inevitably hurt USC’s offense, but Miller Moss, who played outstanding in the Holiday Bowl, will hope to lessen that pain. Despite this, I cannot see a team that loses Caleb Williams doing better the following season. Like Wisconsin, USC also has multiple playoff contenders coming to visit them. Combined with long travel and a potent offense, USC could very well upset one of those teams. USC has the offense to make a playoff push and will keep them in games, but it will not be enough to overcome Riley’s defensive woes.
3 hardest games: @Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame
Potential surprising upset: @Minnesota
X-Factor: If Lincoln Riley can figure out defense
Tier 5 - Mid
This tier is for those teams that teeter on being bowl eligible. Teams that have flaws, but no fatal flaws. Teams that would not be a massive underdog against most teams. Teams that many people would expect to get blown out by a playoff contender. These teams are not good, but they're not bad either. They are simply mid.
Minnesota
Minnesota is coming off their worst year since Fleck took over. Expectations to win the West fell apart as late game meltdowns led to a complete unraveling at the end of the season emphasized by Wisconsin marching out of Huntington Bank Stadium with Axe in hand. There is optimism in Dinkytown. Following his worst season, Fleck had the best offseason of his career. Fleck brought a strong recruiting class that included players that could make a significant impact as true freshmen. Fleck followed that up by bringing in an even stronger transfer class. Minnesota is one of those teams that can go 9-3 just as easily as they can go 3-9. Minnesota added talent this offseason, but there are still a lot of questions. How will Brosmer transition to Big Ten football? Was the offense a mess last year because of Kaliakmanis or Simon and Harbarugh? Will Hetherman be able to fix a defense that broke last year? Will someone on defense step up and fill the All-American void left by Tyler Nubin? The Gophers should be going bowling, but should be thinking Vegas more than Citrus.
3 hardest games: @Michigan, Penn State, @Wisconsin
Potential surprising upset: @UCLA*
X-Factor: Coordinators
*Considered Illinois for this spot, but if they beat the Gophers, is it really a surprise?
Northwestern
Northwestern had the most shocking season of any Big Ten team last year, and possibly in the entire FBS. Last summer longtime and beloved head coach Pat Fitzgerald got fired after a team culture scandal. Many did not expect Northwestern to win more than three games, much less sneak into a bowl game. Northwestern didn’t care. NORTHWESTERN WENT 8-5, FINISHED 2ND IN THE WEST, AND WON THEIR BOWL GAME!!! A feel good season after a summer of hardship and change. Looking at this year, it is extremely unlikely that Northwestern will be able to repeat that performance from last year. Northwestern had an uninspiring offseason. They also have a tougher schedule than last year. Despite Northwestern not having a home field this year, they always have grit and should not be a team to overlook. They will win a couple games they shouldn’t, and they’ll sneak into bowl season with a 6-6 record.
3 hardest games: @Michigan, Ohio State, @iowa
Potential surprising upset: Indiana
X-Factor: Can they repeat that passion?
Maryland
Maryland had a very solid season last year going 8-5 and even gave Michigan a scare late in the season. Maryland will look to repeat this level of success this year, but they should be hoping to get into bowl season at all. Maryland had some solid wins last year, but they also had some head scratching losses. With star quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa getting denied another year of eligibility, it leaves a glaring hole at the most important position in football. Maryland did win their bowl game without Taulia, but the quarterback play was below average at best. Despite poor quarterback performance in the bowl game, Maryland failed to improve the position this offseason. Their offseason as a whole was disappointing. Without a decent quarterback it is hard for any team to win 8 games, much less Maryland. Maryland will likely make a bowl game due to a favorable schedule, but it should surprise no one if they miss one.
3 hardest games: @Oregon, @Penn State, Iowa
Potential surprising upset: @Virginia
X-Factor: Can they fill at least some of Taulia’s production?
Tier 6- Unknowns
This tier is dedicated to those teams that went through dramatic changes this offseason making it impossible to project how they will do this season. Being in this tier doesn’t mean they will be bad. It is just hard to make any real predictions with so many question marks.
Michigan State
Michigan State fired Mel Tucker in the middle of last season just after two years of signing a massive extension. Once the season mercifully ended for Sparty, they got aggressive and hired Oregon State’s head coach Jonathan Smith. Smith worked wonders at Oregon State and had them consistently in the top 25 and battling with the elites in the former Pac-12. Smith made quick work hiring his staff and pouched well respected defensive coordinator Joe Rossi from the Gophers. As is typical with a head coaching change, Michigan State brought in a large transfer class and lost a number of players to the portal. The transfers they brought in appear solid on paper, but who knows how well they will play together. Typically year zeros do not go well from programs, but with the quality of coach and transfers coming in, Michigan State could make some noise.
3 hardest games: @Michigan, @Oregon, Ohio State
Potential surprising upset: @Boston College
X-Factor: Can Smith get his culture set in one offseason?
Washington
Washington is the biggest mystery in all of college football to me. They could make the playoffs or be this year's TCU and miss bowl season all together. Washington went all the way to the National Championship, but had one of the biggest gut punches in the offseason. Everyone knew that they would lose Penix Jr. and other very talented players to the draft. Despite that, with a lot of talent set to return back and the addition of Will Rogers at QB, Washington and Deboer looked to be a force to be reckoned with coming into the Big Ten. Then it all changed. Nick Saban announced his retirement and the Alabama boosters were quick to secure another star head coach. Kalen DeBoer left Seattle for Tuscaloosa and took a lot of talent with him. Washington responded by hiring Arizona’s head coach Jedd Fisch. Fisch has brought in a solid transfer class and still has plenty of talent on Washington’s roster. Fisch had a solid season at Arizona last year going 10-3. But that has been his only year as a head coach where he has gone over .500. Washington has the talent to make a playoff push, but this year largely depends on how successful of a coach Fisch can be, and if Will Rogers can live up to the potential people thought he had under Mike Leach.
3 hardest games: Michigan, @Oregon, @Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Washington State
X-Factor: Will Rodgers and Jedd Fisch
Tier 7- Bottom Feeders
This tier is for the teams that most fan bases will caulk up as an easy win in their preseason predictions. These teams will not be going bowling and will struggle to win a conference game against a team that isn’t in this tier already. These teams should either be looking ahead to 2025 for their coach and program to finally get their footing or looking to replace their current coach.
Illinois
Big Bert exceeded expectations in 2022 by going 8-5 and having a top five pick in the NFL draft. Illinois looked like it had some momentum going into 2023 with another potential first round pick on their defense. However, Illinois returned to form and sputtered to a 5-7 finish. That 2022 season seems more like an anomaly now then a new trend as it is their only winning season since 2010. This trend of losing looks to continue this year as the Fighting Illni’s roster just cannot compete with the rest of the Big Ten. Illinois lost game changing defensive tackle Jer'zhan Newton to the NFL draft this past offseason and even though they brought in some solid defensive transfers, it is doubtful that any of them can replace the void left by Newton. On offense, Illinois did nothing to help their already pitiful offense. The defense should be OK and maybe quarterback Luke Altmyer will take a step forward and make the offense serviceable. However, with a challenging schedule and an increase in talent across the conference, it looks like Illinois will be playing their last game in November again. Although the weather will be cold by then, Big Bert’s seat will be plenty warm.
3 hardest games: Michigan, @Oregon, @Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Central Michigan
X-Factor: Luke Altmyer
Purdue
Purdue is looking at another tough year after finishing last year 4-8. Ryan Walters will have his hands full this year with a very tough schedule and limited talent. Purdue struggled mightily last year and they spent the offseason failing to address any serious needs. It is hard to not have a little sympathy for the Boilermakers. Just two years ago they were in the Big Ten Championship, and now after Jeff Brohm bailed for Louisville, they are fighting to stay relevant in the new and crowded Big Ten. It is hard to find much optimism for Purdue entering this season, except for maybe Devin Mockobee can break out and carry a horrid offense to being respectable. But for now, it looks like Purdue will spend this next offseason hanging out with a fellow in-state rival in the Bottom Feeder tier.
3 hardest games: @Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Indiana
X-Factor: Devin Mockobee
Indiana
It is a good thing that Indiana has basketball because they are B A D at football. Since the turn of the century Indiana has had three winning seasons (two have come in the last five years) and they have not won a bowl game since 1991 (could you imagine going that long without your team winning anything meaningful?). Indiana has been a bottom feeder and they will continue to be a bottom feeder in 2024. Longtime head coach Tom Allen got fired this offseason and they brought in James Madison head coach Curt Cignetti. Cignetti has done very well at James Madison, leading them to a very successful transition to FBS football. However, the Big Ten is an entirely different beast than the Sun Belt. Cignetti might be able to make Indiana respectable, but it will not happen this first year. Despite bringing a number of talented James Madison players with him, Indiana just does not have the talent to compete in the Big Ten. They could be a trap game for a team like Nebraska, but that would be the extent of their success in 2024.
3 hardest games: Michigan, @Ohio State, Nebraska
Potential surprising upset: FIU*
X-Factor: Being Overlooked
*Considered Charlotte for this spot, but I don’t know if that would be much of a shock
UCLA
Did anyone have a worse offseason than UCLA? Chip Kelly abruptly left just before spring ball to be the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. This left UCLA in a terrible spot as they had missed the coaching carousel and the first transfer window had closed, leaving UCLA with limited opportunity to replace both Chip Kelly and the talent that left with Kelly. Arguably the biggest gut punch came when former top recruit, Dante Moore, transferred out leaving UCLA fans devastated. They brought in former star Bruin, Deshaun Foster, to be their head coach. Foster is a wildcard as he has never been a head coach before. To Foster’s credit, despite being hired in a tough spot, he has brought in some quality transfer players. This shows some promise for recruiting in the future, but Foster is being thrown into the fire and will undoubtedly have some serious growing pains his first year. A first time head coach and a messy offseason is not a recipe for success in the new Big Ten. Maybe the travel will impact teams more than is anticipated and UCLA can pick up a conference win or two at home. But there is a very real chance that UCLA could go their first Big Ten season winless in conference.
3 hardest games: Oregon, @LSU, @Penn State
Potential surprising upset: Hawaii
X-Factor: Travel taking a toll on opposing teams
