Agreed we need Payne to make a big jump this year to be successful. Here's why I would bet on him making a big jump: 1. He's not just a big strong kid with good skills, he's a great athlete who has the ability to put the ball on the floor, pass it, rebound at a high level, has unbelievable hands, and I think he's probably taking thousands of short jumpers and jump hooks-which he is capable of developing.
He is also pretty new to the game, and with two new guards who shoot over 40% on 3's (no, we don't know how good they are yet) and a couple other guys who can shoot it in the backcourt (Carrington and Christie-we're not sure about their effectiveness either), he should have better opportunities close to the basket. And if he can develop a short jumper-and I've seen him shooting enough to believe he can develop it, he will be awfully hard to guard. And I know, other players will get better too...I think Payne will be higher than #6 at the end of next year.