Do you guys look at the spread

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flyingfish

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We were a 3.5-4.5 pt dog today, the end result was pretty close to the expectation going in. Do some of the people on here not know that or do they just not care?
 


OK, I’ll bite. The reason why we were a dog is not because Northwestern is any good. It’s because we had only played cumulatively about 80 decent minutes of football in the first 10 games. The fact that we played to the spread is nothing to be proud of.
 

I fully expected a close game but would not have predicted the way this one played out in a million years.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
That’s just predicting and manipulating where money is going. It was basically a toss up game.
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I read your stuff on here a lot and respect you. Usually I like your takes. Toss up is not a correct characterization at all of a 4.5 pt spread. If it was really a toss up good bettors would be printing on this type of stuff. 4.5 is 4.5, not 0
 


Gopherchase said:
OK, I’ll bite. The reason why we were a dog is not because Northwestern is any good. It’s because we had only played cumulatively about 80 decent minutes of football in the first 10 games. The fact that we played to the spread is nothing to be proud of.
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But they actually are decent though. They are wayyyy better than they were beginning of season. Taking Michigan albeit a mediocre Michigan team to the ropes ain't nothing
 

flyingfish said:
I read your stuff on here a lot and respect you. Usually I like your takes. Toss up is not a correct characterization at all of a 4.5 pt spread. If it was really a toss up good bettors would be printing on this type of stuff. 4.5 is 4.5, not 0
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I don’t gamble and probably shouldn’t have commented. I was giving home team 3 and thinking 1.5.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
I don’t gamble and probably shouldn’t have commented. I was giving home team 3 and thinking 1.5.
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sports gambling notoriously challenging if not impossible to win at. But this "giving home team 3" thing isn't some obligatory BS it's a statistically backed component of building a spread. Home field is worth a lot.
 

flyingfish said:
We were a 3.5-4.5 pt dog today, the end result was pretty close to the expectation going in. Do some of the people on here not know that or do they just not care?
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The Gopher defense made an offense that is like 106th in the country look like a juggernaut. Whether the final score ended up at the spread or not has nothing to do with their performance.
 



GreasyGopher said:
The Gopher defense made an offense that is like 106th in the country look like a juggernaut. Whether the final score ended up at the spread or not has nothing to do with their performance.
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Well we also scored more points than Oregon did on them so you can slice it and dice it however you want. Our defense played very poorly for sure. But my point in all of this is literally just that the end result was pretty close ultimately to what the expectation going in was and everyone acts like the sky is falling now
 

flyingfish said:
But they actually are decent though. They are wayyyy better than they were beginning of season. Taking Michigan albeit a mediocre Michigan team to the ropes ain't nothing
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This is the rub. Teams like Northwestern and Wisconsin are improving as the season wears on. Gophers are regressing and in some areas, at an alarming rate.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
This is the rub. Teams like Northwestern and Wisconsin are improving as the season wears on. Gophers are regressing and in some areas, at an alarming rate.
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The defense was really bad today. The offense was pretty good possibly best performance of the year. The poor play of defense today outweighed the good things Drake did and we lost.
 

flyingfish said:
Well we also scored more points than Oregon did on them so you can slice it and dice it however you want. Our defense played very poorly for sure. But my point in all of this is literally just that the end result was pretty close ultimately to what the expectation going in was and everyone acts like the sky is falling now
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That was the expectation going in because the sky has been falling…

There’s been like 2 QBs all season that haven’t torched this defense because the secondary has no idea how to cover anyone in man or zone coverage. They can’t stop the run because the defense line is constantly getting blown off the LOS. When they do get in position to make a play tackling is absolutely atrocious. They force next to no turnovers.

Pretty sure they have the worst (or 2nd worst) offense in the B1G. The run game is non-existent. The OL gets zero push and the WRs get zero separation.

Kicking game is terrible, and today is the first time all season there’s been any life in the return game.

But yeah, people are acting like the sky is falling only because of today’s performance.

Edit: I’m not sure what type of transitive property argument you’re trying to make by bringing up Oregon but the Gophers played the Ducks… and they didn’t force a single punt!
 
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flyingfish said:
We were a 3.5-4.5 pt dog today, the end result was pretty close to the expectation going in. Do some of the people on here not know that or do they just not care?
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Neither, although I do recall Burns or someone else mentioned an over /under around 40 points which seems a wee bit off. The ‘Cats nearly hit the over on their own.

Regardless, I don’t support the notion being a betting public opinion dog to Northwestern gives the staff cover.



.
 
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Pompous Elitist said:
Neither, although I do recall Burns or someone else mentioned an over /under around 40 points which seems a wee bit off. The ‘Cats nearly hit the over on their own.
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yeah I hammered the over in this game as soon as I saw the weather was going to be fine
 

flyingfish said:
The defense was really bad today. The offense was pretty good possibly best performance of the year. The poor play of defense today outweighed the good things Drake did and we lost.
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Have you watched the rest of the year?

The poor play of the defense TODAY…

You’re presenting your argument as if the rest of the season has not happened and is not full of data points to support people having a strong reaction to what they saw today.
 

GreasyGopher said:
Have you watched the rest of the year?

The poor play of the defense TODAY…

You’re presenting your argument as if the rest of the season has not happened and is not full of data points to support people having a strong reaction to what they saw today.
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no today was the first game I watched. I skipped the wins against Nebraska, Purdue and msu.
 


For the record I think fleck made some really bad choices today and at other times this season. The EV of that 48 yd fg we kicked was probably less than a point. Clear go for it spot imo. The punt when NW player muffed it was also a really bad choice we just got bailed out. So it's not like I'm saying coaches are blameless in this loss or others. Defense seems to be very bad. I just don't understand why some of you call for gutting the program. I'd say this team has overachieved in all honesty this season (many of you will think that's insane) but 4 big ten wins so far and hopefully a 5th on the way is probably more than I'd have expected when looking at our roster preseason.
 

flyingfish said:
We were a 3.5-4.5 pt dog today, the end result was pretty close to the expectation going in. Do some of the people on here not know that or do they just not care?
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this cuts both ways. Do you want to be satisfied with being a team who is a 3.5 pt dog to a 5-5 NW team in the 9th year of your HCs tenure? There's a reason people have been saying we've stagnated for weeks.

This team is exactly where we've been for the last 60 years. Don't have the athletes to routinely compete with the top and a "good" season will be decided on if we don't blow it vs the bottom dwellers and trade punches enough with the middle of the pack.

agree that this shouldn't be the game/surprise/etc that swings people. this was largely predictable/predicted coming in if you'd watched both teams this year. just a matter of if you're cool with that this is where we're at
 

upnorthkid said:
this cuts both ways. Do you want to be satisfied with being a team who is a 3.5 pt dog to a 5-5 NW team in the 9th year of your HCs tenure? There's a reason people have been saying we've stagnated for weeks.

This team is exactly where we've been for the last 60 years. Don't have the athletes to routinely compete with the top and a "good" season will be decided on if we don't blow it vs the bottom dwellers and trade punches enough with the middle of the pack.

agree that this shouldn't be the game/surprise/etc that swings people. this was largely predictable/predicted coming in if you'd watched both teams this year. just a matter of if you're cool with that this is where we're at
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Yes Stu, it is cool. I think until we close the deal with MBS and get the Saudi funding we are not in a position to do much more. If you're not cool with 6-8 win seasons you probably should cheer for a team with some more coin. Or a team with less that's in a different conference. People acting like Indiana is the rule, they are the exception.
 

flyingfish said:
no today was the first game I watched. I skipped the wins against Nebraska, Purdue and msu.
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Even in two of these examples the Gopher defense made really bad offenses look really good. Purdue was averaging less than 60 yards per game on the ground and they gave up 256 yards at a 6.2 ypc clip! If you subtract out sack yardage, Michigan State gained 539 yards… They played a freshman backup qb!
 

GreasyGopher said:
Even in two of these examples the Gopher defense made really bad offenses look really good. Purdue was averaging less than 60 yards per game on the ground and they gave up 256 yards at a 6.2 ypc clip! If you subtract out sack yardage, Michigan State gained 539 yards… They played a freshman backup qb!
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You're right but you also get credit for red zone stops, turnovers, etc. yes those are more variable but at the end of the day it directly
Impacts points on the board and defense deserves credit for those things.
 

flyingfish said:
For the record I think fleck made some really bad choices today and at other times this season. The EV of that 48 yd fg we kicked was probably less than a point. Clear go for it spot imo. The punt when NW player muffed it was also a really bad choice we just got bailed out. So it's not like I'm saying coaches are blameless in this loss or others. Defense seems to be very bad. I just don't understand why some of you call for gutting the program. I'd say this team has overachieved in all honesty this season (many of you will think that's insane) but 4 big ten wins so far and hopefully a 5th on the way is probably more than I'd have expected when looking at our roster preseason.
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W Buffalo (5-6)
W NW St (1-11)
L Cal (6-5)
W Rutgers (5-6)
L OSU (11-0)
W Purdue (2-9)
W Nebraska (7-4); this may be referred to as the only "good" win of the year when its all said and done
L Iowa (7-4)
W Mich St (3-8)
L Oregon (10-1)
L NW (6-5)

Think the trouble I'd have with calling it "overachieving" is the combined record of the wins is 23-44 (.343)

The reason more I'd move on (moreso from the coordinators than from PJ if we'd actually spend some money to get and retain good coordinators) is not that I'm upset with the record (we have lost to who I expected, beat who I expected, and roughly split with those I expected so far) but that we're beating ourselves frequently, don't seem prepared (we are 2-8-1 in the first quarter this year), and I can't really explain what we're even trying to do on defense nor what we're trying to recruit to be anymore. I agree with you it won't matter if we don't invest more NIL money in terms of doing something like getting to the playoff.
 

flyingfish said:
For the record I think fleck made some really bad choices today and at other times this season. The EV of that 48 yd fg we kicked was probably less than a point. Clear go for it spot imo. The punt when NW player muffed it was also a really bad choice we just got bailed out. So it's not like I'm saying coaches are blameless in this loss or others. Defense seems to be very bad. I just don't understand why some of you call for gutting the program. I'd say this team has overachieved in all honesty this season (many of you will think that's insane) but 4 big ten wins so far and hopefully a 5th on the way is probably more than I'd have expected when looking at our roster preseason.
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The overall B1G record of the 4 teams they’ve beat is 6-26. Minus Nebraska each of those games had points in them where it looked very likely that the Gophers would lose.

In their 4 losses, they’ve been outscored 163-54…
 

flyingfish said:
Yes Stu, it is cool. I think until we close the deal with MBS and get the Saudi funding we are not in a position to do much more. If you're not cool with 6-8 win seasons you probably should cheer for a team with some more coin. Or a team with less that's in a different conference. People acting like Indiana is the rule, they are the exception.
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You’re going to have to expand on this?
 

flyingfish said:
You're right but you also get credit for red zone stops, turnovers, etc. yes those are more variable but at the end of the day it directly
Impacts points on the board and defense deserves credit for those things.
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Purdue and Michigan State are 0-16 in the Big Ten and they combined for over 900 yards against the Gophers. OT was needed to be MSU and a pick 6 was needed to beat Purdue..
 

upnorthkid said:
W Buffalo (5-6)
W NW St (1-11)
L Cal (6-5)
W Rutgers (5-6)
L OSU (11-0)
W Purdue (2-9)
W Nebraska (7-4); this may be referred to as the only "good" win of the year when its all said and done
L Iowa (7-4)
W Mich St (3-8)
L Oregon (10-1)
L NW (6-5)

Think the trouble I'd have with calling it "overachieving" is the combined record of the wins is 23-44 (.343)

The reason more I'd move on (moreso from the coordinators than from PJ if we'd actually spend some money to get and retain good coordinators) is not that I'm upset with the record (we have lost to who I expected, beat who I expected, and roughly split with those I expected so far) but that we're beating ourselves frequently, don't seem prepared (we are 2-8-1 in the first quarter this year), and I can't really explain what we're even trying to do on defense nor what we're trying to recruit to be anymore. I agree with you it won't matter if we don't invest more NIL money in terms of doing something like getting to the playoff.
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Boss, moving on from a coach isn't free it's very very expensive and detracts from ability to bring in NIL dollars. I'd way rather see what the current staff could do with reasonable talent before making a change and somehow plunging full steam into the NIL world
 


flyingfish said:
Boss, moving on from a coach isn't free it's very very expensive and detracts from ability to bring in NIL dollars. I'd way rather see what the current staff could do with reasonable talent before making a change and somehow plunging full steam into the NIL world
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The problems on defense are very much due to really bad coaching and not talent. Talent doesn’t fix this issue.

All of these games remind me of watching the Gopher defense get destroyed by Maryland in 2018. That defense had a ton of talent but the coaching was so bad those players couldn’t overcome it.
 

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