Do the Twins make/miss the playoffs?

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I say In by the slimmest of margins, 1 game or less.

 

[Slim Tubby]

I voted "choke"...Detroit shocks the baseball world.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

I voted "choke"...Detroit shocks the baseball world.

Rather have them than Boston or Seattle

 

[Full Speed Ahead]

We have a decent schedule for the remaining 19 games, so I think we'll make it into the show. Note that the Royals and Tigers play each other for 3 games, so that'll help in our division standings (and we play the Guardians for four games where we need to at least spilt the series).

 

[short ornery norwegian]

does it matter?

is it worse to miss the playoffs - or is it worse to stumble into the playoffs and get eliminated in the first round?

for me, the bigger picture is that this organization has a lot of issues, and I don't see any quick fixes that will transform them into a team that can make a playoff run.

some really touch conversations need to take place in the off-season.

(I have a sneaky feeling that the front office is getting ready to dump a lot of veterans and go full youth movement over the next 2 seasons.)

 

[Spaulding!No!]

SON!

 

[Gophers1992]

does it matter?

is it worse to miss the playoffs - or is it worse to stumble into the playoffs and get eliminated in the first round?

for me, the bigger picture is that this organization has a lot of issues, and I don't see any quick fixes that will transform them into a team that can make a playoff run.

some really touch conversations need to take place in the off-season.

(I have a sneaky feeling that the front office is getting ready to dump a lot of veterans and go full youth movement over the next 2 seasons.)

It matters a ton. The 2 WS teams last year were wild card teams. Anything can happen, especially in a best of 3 series.

Most organizations have some sort of issues, and flaws in their roster. This organization is in wayyyy better shape than it was before the current regime took over.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

It matters a ton. The 2 WS teams last year were wild card teams. Anything can happen, especially in a best of 3 series.

Most organizations have some sort of issues, and flaws in their roster. This organization is in wayyyy better shape than it was before the current regime took over.

The farm system appears to be in good shape. The free agency signings have been largely a mixed bag, with more bad signings than good ones, especially when you look at players who they didn't scrape the bottom of the barrel for. And the deadline deals have ranged from bad to absolute disasters.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

It matters a ton. The 2 WS teams last year were wild card teams. Anything can happen, especially in a best of 3 series.

We can also throw in the 87 & 91 WS Champs in that

Most organizations have some sort of issues, and flaws in their roster. This organization is in wayyyy better shape than it was before the current regime took over.

 

[GopherVotary]

does it matter?

is it worse to miss the playoffs - or is it worse to stumble into the playoffs and get eliminated in the first round?

for me, the bigger picture is that this organization has a lot of issues, and I don't see any quick fixes that will transform them into a team that can make a playoff run.

some really touch conversations need to take place in the off-season.

(I have a sneaky feeling that the front office is getting ready to dump a lot of veterans and go full youth movement over the next 2 seasons.)

Of the last four WS teams, two were 6-seeds and one was a 5-seed.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

does it matter?

Yes, more experience/seasoning is always beneficial, especially as some of our key young contributors weren’t playing in that same role last season. The more you do any task, the more proficient you become and the playoffs are at a different level.

is it worse to miss the playoffs - or is it worse to stumble into the playoffs and get eliminated in the first round?

We’ve had several periods/streaks of good/bad ball this year - for all anyone knows the next good streak is right around the corner. We have two pitchers, who 90% if the time deliver a quality start and SWR & Festa usually provide competitive outings.

That being said, I think the next stretch/streak of good ball requires Correra in the lineup.

for me, the bigger picture is that this organization has a lot of issues, and I don't see any quick fixes that will transform them into a team that can make a playoff run.

I don’t see it this bleak. What specific lot of issues are you referring to?

Arguably losing your two best players/RH sticks for the second half is a majority of the problem; you shorten your lineup and expose role players by giving them to many ABs.

The bullpen is another issue and they need quality veterans, including one lefty. I’d rather have too many good options than bargain binning it for the Blewitt and Tonkin’s of the waiver wire.

some really touch conversations need to take place in the off-season.

(I have a sneaky feeling that the front office is getting ready to dump a lot of veterans and go full youth movement over the next 2 seasons.)

Whom specifically?

I think you naturally part ways with Farmer, Kepler and Theilbar and after that every key contributor is at present under 40, except Buck and Santana.

I’d try and trade Buck for some pitching - his reasonable contract may entice someone and I think a change of scenario will be helpful to all.

I love Santana, but I’d rather spend his $6M on relief pitching. Figure out who your first sacker is and park them for 80%+ of the starts, so they can become proficient at it.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

OK, here's where I'm coming from.

I would be more optimistic if the Twins had their best possible team - but without Buxton, Correa, Ryan, they are not that team as of today. Plus, you have Lewis and other hitters slumping, multiple players making bad fielding plays, and Duran is struggling. as of right now, this is not "a playoff team." if they do make the playoffs, they could win a game with Pablo or Ober pitching - but would anyone bet real money that this team - as presently constituted - is making a playoff run?

on the big picture - the ownership cut payroll due to uncertainty about local TV revenue. the Diamond bankruptcy case will not be decided until November - so it's another off-season of uncertainty. At best, the payroll stays the same next year - but it could go lower. and Pablo's raise kicks in next year - he goes from $8.2-mill to $21.7-mill. so they have to cut $13.5-mill just to stay the same. I think they will cut or trade every veteran they can and go full youth movement.

 

[howeda7]

OK, here's where I'm coming from.

I would be more optimistic if the Twins had their best possible team - but without Buxton, Correa, Ryan, they are not that team as of today. Plus, you have Lewis and other hitters slumping, multiple players making bad fielding plays, and Duran is struggling. as of right now, this is not "a playoff team." if they do make the playoffs, they could win a game with Pablo or Ober pitching - but would anyone bet real money that this team - as presently constituted - is making a playoff run?

on the big picture - the ownership cut payroll due to uncertainty about local TV revenue. the Diamond bankruptcy case will not be decided until November - so it's another off-season of uncertainty. At best, the payroll stays the same next year - but it could go lower. and Pablo's raise kicks in next year - he goes from $8.2-mill to $21.7-mill. so they have to cut $13.5-mill just to stay the same. I think they will cut or trade every veteran they can and go full youth movement.

They have no real excuse to cut payroll further. They cut it from $156 to $127 this year. $29 million. They lost about $14 million in TV revenue. They cut $15 million more than they needed to break even with 2023. Even if they take another $15 million hit in TV revenue next year, they should still be able to afford a payroll of $130 million.

The problem with cutting/trading/veterans is that most of the $$ is tied up on Correa and Buxton. I don't think anyone will take either of them. I suppose they could trade Lopez but that would be a terrible decision. They will not bring back Kepler or Farmer and likely not Santana either. So who's left to trade?

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

They have no real excuse to cut payroll further. They cut it from $156 to $127 this year. $29 million. They lost about $14 million in TV revenue. They cut $15 million more than they needed to break even with 2023. Even if they take another $15 million hit in TV revenue next year, they should still be able to afford a payroll of $130 million.

The problem with cutting/trading/veterans is that most of the $$ is tied up on Correa and Buxton. I don't think anyone will take either of them. I suppose they could trade Lopez but that would be a terrible decision. They will not bring back Kepler or Farmer and likely not Santana either. So who's left to trade?

I'll say it again, if money is so tight, why haven't they sold ad space on the uniform? Look around Target Field. They obviously aren't above corporate partnerships.

 

[GophersInIowa]

I'll say it again, if money is so tight, why haven't they sold ad space on the uniform? Look around Target Field. They obviously aren't above corporate partnerships.

The weird thing is they're only one of seven teams that don't have ads on the uniforms and all without are in the bottom half in payroll.
- White Sox (18th in payroll)
- Rockies (17th)
- Twins (19th)
- A's (30th)
- Mariners (16th)
- Rays (28th)
- Nationals (24th)

 

[Ope3]

They have no real excuse to cut payroll further. They cut it from $156 to $127 this year. $29 million. They lost about $14 million in TV revenue. They cut $15 million more than they needed to break even with 2023. Even if they take another $15 million hit in TV revenue next year, they should still be able to afford a payroll of $130 million.

The problem with cutting/trading/veterans is that most of the $$ is tied up on Correa and Buxton. I don't think anyone will take either of them. I suppose they could trade Lopez but that would be a terrible decision. They will not bring back Kepler or Farmer and likely not Santana either. So who's left to trade?

A potential reason for the Pohlad's to cut the payroll further is if their outside MLB business are not doing well financially, such as Commercial Real Estate.

 

[howeda7]

A potential reason for the Pohlad's to cut the payroll further is if their outside MLB business are not doing well financially, such as Commercial Real Estate.

It shouldn't be. We hear they shouldn't have to subsidize losses, so it certainly should work both ways. Sell the team then. It's worth $1.3 billion or so. Cash in.

 

[Ope3]

It shouldn't be. We hear they shouldn't have to subsidize losses, so it certainly should work both ways. Sell the team then. It's worth $1.3 billion or so. Cash in.

But they have subsidized losses substantially in 2021 - 2023.

 

[howeda7]

But they have subsidized losses substantially in 2021 - 2023.

How substantially? 2021 was restricted attendance and I saw they maybe lost $10 million or so last year. Meanwhile the team is worth $1.2 billion more than what they paid for it. So again, if it's such a money-loser...sell.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

that is the heart of the matter. no MLB team will open its books to the public, so it's all based on guesswork and conjecture.

I found a site "statista" that claims to show operating gains/losses.

according to this site, the Twins had an operating loss of $49-million in 2020 due to covid. then
2021: operating profit of $10-million
2022: operating loss of $27-million
2023: operating loss of $27-million

if this is accurate (huge if), that is a collective operating loss of $93-million over a 4-year period.

and the site is projecting that the Twins will show an operating profit of $19-million in 2024.
what they are basing this on, I have no idea.

FWIW - Forbes estimated that the Twins lost $30-million last year.

 

[howeda7]

In 2025, Twins will pay a total of $19 million for Christian Vazquez, Chris Paddock and Randy Dobnak.

 

[howeda7]

that is the heart of the matter. no MLB team will open its books to the public, so it's all based on guesswork and conjecture.

I found a site "statista" that claims to show operating gains/losses.

according to this site, the Twins had an operating loss of $49-million in 2020 due to covid. then
2021: operating profit of $10-million
2022: operating loss of $27-million
2023: operating loss of $27-million

if this is accurate (huge if), that is a collective operating loss of $93-million over a 4-year period.

and the site is projecting that the Twins will show an operating profit of $19-million in 2024.
what they are basing this on, I have no idea.

FWIW - Forbes estimated that the Twins lost $30-million last year.

The 2021-2022 swing of $37 million doesn't make much sense. The payroll did go up about $30 million, but attendance also went up 500K which translates to about $23M more revenue.

 

[forever a gopher]

They have no real excuse to cut payroll further. They cut it from $156 to $127 this year. $29 million. They lost about $14 million in TV revenue. They cut $15 million more than they needed to break even with 2023. Even if they take another $15 million hit in TV revenue next year, they should still be able to afford a payroll of $130 million.

The problem with cutting/trading/veterans is that most of the $$ is tied up on Correa and Buxton. I don't think anyone will take either of them. I suppose they could trade Lopez but that would be a terrible decision. They will not bring back Kepler or Farmer and likely not Santana either. So who's left to trade?

I posted this long, long ago, but because of revenue sharing on local TV deals, the Twins are effectively "sharing" their loss with the rest of the MLB, and their own immediate loss is less. My math says they lost around $8MM in TV revenue as a worst-case scenario in 2024:

https://gopherhole.com/boards/threa...ta-twins-in-season-thread.114261/post-2898075

forever a gopher:
National Media Rights = $60MM (roughly)
Local Media Rights = $54MM x 52% they receive from this = $28MM
MLB Revenue Sharing (3.3% of total pot generated by pooling 48% of local media rights) = $118MM
So in 2023, the Twins had roughly $206MM just in broadcast rights before any other revenue. If the local media rights goes down to $40MM (which is roughly the floor, as MLB said they will cover something like 75% of their local rights to make them whole). That would leave the Twins with a total broadcast revenue of $198.8MM. That would be a drop of let's call it $8MM total, as a worst-case scenario. It is grossly overstated how big of a deal this is, and the Twins are taking full advantage to give them an excuse to go cheap.

 

[forever a gopher]

that is the heart of the matter. no MLB team will open its books to the public, so it's all based on guesswork and conjecture.

I found a site "statista" that claims to show operating gains/losses.

according to this site, the Twins had an operating loss of $49-million in 2020 due to covid. then
2021: operating profit of $10-million
2022: operating loss of $27-million
2023: operating loss of $27-million

if this is accurate (huge if), that is a collective operating loss of $93-million over a 4-year period.

and the site is projecting that the Twins will show an operating profit of $19-million in 2024.
what they are basing this on, I have no idea.

FWIW - Forbes estimated that the Twins lost $30-million last year.

Also going by Forbes (which I'm hugely skeptical is anywhere near reality, but it's what we got) - the Twins have a $114MM surplus over the past 10 years, including the massive $49MM loss from COVID.

https://gopherhole.com/boards/threa...ta-twins-in-season-thread.114261/post-2897662

 

[GopherVotary]

Magic Number is down to 12. If it’s down to 8 by Sunday night, we’ll be in great shape.

 

[GopherVotary]

Magic number only reduced to 10 over the weekend. Would have been nice to get it to single digits, with a very tough week ahead.