All Things 2024 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread

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Gopher_In_NYC said:
One thing to keep in mind, is at this point, the Twins don’t know their broadcast rights for next year either.

Royce Lewis’ agent is the human(?) being Scott Bora and he’s under team control till 2028 and thst contract will dwarf Correra’s if he stays healthy and continues on his trajectory.

Buxton isn’t a free agent until 2029 & Correra in 2023.

It’s sensible to me to first try and see if Tony D. Or Varland can be your 5th starter, as you can always make a trade later for a starter.
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I'm pretty sure the Twins have bots that are repeating this line over and over (not saying that's you, just saying that phrase gets thrown around constantly). I understand lower revenue doesn't help. However, when you look at the entire picture, it isn't as big of an impact as they're making it out to be.

National Media Rights = $60MM (roughly)
Local Media Rights = $54MM x 52% they receive from this = $28MM
MLB Revenue Sharing (3.3% of total pot generated by pooling 48% of local media rights) = $118MM
So in 2023, the Twins had roughly $206MM just in broadcast rights before any other revenue. If the local media rights goes down to $40MM (which is roughly the floor, as MLB said they will cover something like 75% of their local rights to make them whole). That would leave the Twins with a total broadcast revenue of $198.8MM. That would be a drop of let's call it $8MM total, as a worst-case scenario. It is grossly overstated how big of a deal this is, and the Twins are taking full advantage to give them an excuse to go cheap.
 

forever a gopher said:
I'm pretty sure the Twins have bots that are repeating this line over and over (not saying that's you, just saying that phrase gets thrown around constantly). I understand lower revenue doesn't help. However, when you look at the entire picture, it isn't as big of an impact as they're making it out to be.

National Media Rights = $60MM (roughly)
Local Media Rights = $54MM x 52% they receive from this = $28MM
MLB Revenue Sharing (3.3% of total pot generated by pooling 48% of local media rights) = $118MM
So in 2023, the Twins had roughly $206MM just in broadcast rights before any other revenue. If the local media rights goes down to $40MM (which is roughly the floor, as MLB said they will cover something like 75% of their local rights to make them whole). That would leave the Twins with a total broadcast revenue of $198.8MM. That would be a drop of let's call it $8MM total, as a worst-case scenario. It is grossly overstated how big of a deal this is, and the Twins are taking full advantage to give them an excuse to go cheap.
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They’re not mutually exclusive.

Both can be true.

You disagree with how they run the team’s budget and I laid out my reasons why I don’t. Both of us are entitled to our perspectives/viewpoints.
 
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forever a gopher said:
I'm pretty sure the Twins have bots that are repeating this line over and over (not saying that's you, just saying that phrase gets thrown around constantly). I understand lower revenue doesn't help. However, when you look at the entire picture, it isn't as big of an impact as they're making it out to be.

National Media Rights = $60MM (roughly)
Local Media Rights = $54MM x 52% they receive from this = $28MM
MLB Revenue Sharing (3.3% of total pot generated by pooling 48% of local media rights) = $118MM
So in 2023, the Twins had roughly $206MM just in broadcast rights before any other revenue. If the local media rights goes down to $40MM (which is roughly the floor, as MLB said they will cover something like 75% of their local rights to make them whole). That would leave the Twins with a total broadcast revenue of $198.8MM. That would be a drop of let's call it $8MM total, as a worst-case scenario. It is grossly overstated how big of a deal this is, and the Twins are taking full advantage to give them an excuse to go cheap.
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but is it an "excuse" if the team has, in fact, posted operating losses for several seasons in a row?
I'm not saying that Forbes magazine is carved on stone tablets, but it is a respected financial publication, and Forbes has now stated that the Twins have posted operating losses for the last two seasons, after a small operating profit in 2021.

in almost any other business, if a business has posted operating losses for two consecutive years, that business is going to cut expenses, especially if one of its revenue sources is declining.

it seems the fans want owners who don't care if they lose money. I just don't think there are a lot of people in that category. and even then, losing money doesn't guarantee success on the field.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
but is it an "excuse" if the team has, in fact, posted operating losses for several seasons in a row?
I'm not saying that Forbes magazine is carved on stone tablets, but it is a respected financial publication, and Forbes has now stated that the Twins have posted operating losses for the last two seasons, after a small operating profit in 2021.

in almost any other business, if a business has posted operating losses for two consecutive years, that business is going to cut expenses, especially if one of its revenue sources is declining.

it seems the fans want owners who don't care if they lose money. I just don't think there are a lot of people in that category. and even then, losing money doesn't guarantee success on the field.
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It's their team and they can obviously run it as they see fit. But comparing it to "regular business" isn't really persuasive in my opinion. In a "regular business" if you were losing money every year the value of that business would typically be declining, not increasing exponentially. Carl bought the team for less than $50M. It's worth something approaching $1.5B now. They could certainly justify the economics of investing more money into the roster if they chose to do so.
 

2nd Degree Gopher said:
It's their team and they can obviously run it as they see fit. But comparing it to "regular business" isn't really persuasive in my opinion. In a "regular business" if you were losing money every year the value of that business would typically be declining, not increasing exponentially. Carl bought the team for less than $50M. It's worth something approaching $1.5B now. They could certainly justify the economics of investing more money into the roster if they chose to do so.
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That's really the only argument that holds water for me. Like borrowing on increased value of your home. That said, their team, their money. If they don't put an entertaining product on the field, they will lose more. Other than a couple stretches, they've put a decent product on the field and have signed key players to expensive, long-term contracts (Lopez, Correa, Buxton). Think we get pretty good value.
 


short ornery norwegian said:
but is it an "excuse" if the team has, in fact, posted operating losses for several seasons in a row?
I'm not saying that Forbes magazine is carved on stone tablets, but it is a respected financial publication, and Forbes has now stated that the Twins have posted operating losses for the last two seasons, after a small operating profit in 2021.

in almost any other business, if a business has posted operating losses for two consecutive years, that business is going to cut expenses, especially if one of its revenue sources is declining.

it seems the fans want owners who don't care if they lose money.
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If they had that mindset, they likely wouldn’t of had the money 💴 to buy the franchise in the first place.
short ornery norwegian said:
I just don't think there are a lot of people in that category. and even then, losing money doesn't guarantee success on the field.
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TNGophfan said:
That's really the only argument that holds water for me. Like borrowing on increased value of your home. That said, their team, their money. If they don't put an entertaining product on the field, they will lose more. Other than a couple stretches, they've put a decent product on the field and have signed key players to expensive, long-term contracts (Lopez, Correa, Buxton). Think we get pretty good value.
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We also have an exciting core of young players and seemingly more on the way, as our farm system is ranked in the Top Ten.

We should win a 4th central division in 6 years this season.

FWIW, I’m on record that we’ll win a WS within the next 3-5 years.

We’re in a Golden Era.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
We also have an exciting core of young players and seemingly more on the way, as our farm system is ranked in the Top Ten.

We should win a 4th central division in 6 years this season.

FWIW, I’m on record that we’ll win a WS within the next 3-5 years.

We’re in a Golden Era.
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Hope you're right!
 

short ornery norwegian said:
but is it an "excuse" if the team has, in fact, posted operating losses for several seasons in a row?
I'm not saying that Forbes magazine is carved on stone tablets, but it is a respected financial publication, and Forbes has now stated that the Twins have posted operating losses for the last two seasons, after a small operating profit in 2021.

in almost any other business, if a business has posted operating losses for two consecutive years, that business is going to cut expenses, especially if one of its revenue sources is declining.

it seems the fans want owners who don't care if they lose money. I just don't think there are a lot of people in that category. and even then, losing money doesn't guarantee success on the field.
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I posted this earlier, but if we're using the Forbes article as gospel, they posted a loss in 2021, a gain in 2022 and loss in 2023, so not two consecutive years of losses. Even including all the Covid losses, according to Forbes, the team is cumulatively $110MM in the black over the past 10 years (graph shown below).

I'm not insinuating that they should be reckless with their money and "they're rich, what do they care". What I'm saying is that per my post above, the difference in their revenue, when looking at the actual numbers we know about (broadcast rights and revenue sharing), the difference in their net revenue with this Bally's debacle is minimal (likely less than 3% of their total revenue when looking between best case and worst case scenario) and is completely blown out of proportion.

I'm also not taking the Forbes information as gospel, as these are private companies, and have no incentive to divulge financial information to a writer at Forbes. Any time a corporation that is run by very wealthy people with very expensive accountants and tax experts, you have to take the information they divulge with a grain of salt. My firm this year had record revenue, around $80MM, and our profit was 28% overall on those billings. Yet, at the end of the year, we had a net-negative operating expense. To reduce tax liability on corporate holdings, we distribute profit sharing at year end. We could have saved some money and rolled it over into 2024. However, that incurs extra taxes that don't have added value. So we are a very healthy, profitable company, but on paper we were in the red in 2023. It's a very long-winded way of saying "take the operating expenses loss information with a heavy grain of salt".

Captu88re.JPG
 




Kirilloff better really hit otherwise his opportunities on this team are going to be limited. The defense just ain’t there and they already have a glut of lefties. Not saying he won’t make the team, but his at bats are gonna be limited if not hitting. It’s too bad about the injuries cause he swung like Mauer, but had more power.
 

Prescient post @From the Parkinglot regarding Kiriloff’s future at first.

This article on Brooks Lee receiving reps at 2nd as he may end up there in Mpls!

https://theathletic.com/5292288/202...prospect-position/?source=user_shared_articleTop prospect Brooks Lee is almost ready to be ‘the guy’ for Twins, but where?


FORT MYERS, Fla. — Brooks Lee had to think about it. When was the last time he played second base with any sort of regularity? He figures it was during college intrasquad games at Cal-Poly. But that’s about to change.

Less than 20 months after surprisingly landing with the Minnesota Twins as the eighth pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Lee is on the doorstep of the big leagues. The switch-hitting, career-long shortstop cemented his status as a consensus top 50 global prospect by reaching Triple A in his first full season of professional ball. But becoming the Twins’ long-term shortstop is unlikely with Carlos Correa signed through at least 2028.

When shortstops change positions, they tend to move to either second or third base, depending on their skill set. Twins officials have generally been split on which would fit Lee best, but with Royce Lewis getting comfortable at third base, that debate may already be over. Correa and Lewis appear to be the left side of the infield for the foreseeable future.

Lee’s clearest path to a regular spot in the Twins’ lineup, in 2024 and beyond, is at second base, where Edouard Julien is now taking over as the starter following the Jorge Polanco trade. Julien is one of the impact hitters around whom future Twins lineups can be built, and he’s made dramatic strides defensively just to be playable at second base, but Lee profiles as a much better fielder there.

Lee will continue to see plenty of action at shortstop this spring, and probably once the Triple-A season starts as well, because maintaining the ability to play there has value. He’ll also get reps at third base, where he dabbled at the end of last season with the St. Paul Saints. But for the first time as a pro, Lee will begin to see time at second base during Twins camp.

“We have five, six weeks,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “There’s plenty of time to get him work at second base. He’s taken balls fairly regularly at those other spots. I’m not going to hesitate. (Infield coach) Tony (Diaz) and the infield guys are going to work him pretty hard everywhere. And once the games start, we’re going to see him all over.”

And everyone involved, including Lee, seems to think it’ll be a smooth process thanks to his sure hands, steady footwork and natural instincts.

“I’m ready for the challenge,” said Lee, 23. “Second base, I just need to get better at turning double plays. It’s not that big of a difference. It is a shorter throw, and I think I have a pretty good arm and I like to use my arm when I can, but I still enjoy it a lot. You’re in the middle of the field, so it’s still in my eyes a premium position. You’re involved a lot in relays and double plays, a lot of action.”

At some point, as soon as this summer, the Twins could slide Julien over to first base (and/or to designated hitter) and make room for Lee as Correa’s double-play partner. Correa and Lewis on the left side, and Lee and Julien on the right side, could be an excellent long-term infield alignment that might be one of the league’s best, offensively and defensively.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Prescient post @From the Parkinglot regarding Kiriloff’s future at first.

This article on Brooks Lee receiving reps at 2nd as he may end up there in Mpls!

https://theathletic.com/5292288/202...prospect-position/?source=user_shared_articleTop prospect Brooks Lee is almost ready to be ‘the guy’ for Twins, but where?


FORT MYERS, Fla. — Brooks Lee had to think about it. When was the last time he played second base with any sort of regularity? He figures it was during college intrasquad games at Cal-Poly. But that’s about to change.

Less than 20 months after surprisingly landing with the Minnesota Twins as the eighth pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Lee is on the doorstep of the big leagues. The switch-hitting, career-long shortstop cemented his status as a consensus top 50 global prospect by reaching Triple A in his first full season of professional ball. But becoming the Twins’ long-term shortstop is unlikely with Carlos Correa signed through at least 2028.

When shortstops change positions, they tend to move to either second or third base, depending on their skill set. Twins officials have generally been split on which would fit Lee best, but with Royce Lewis getting comfortable at third base, that debate may already be over. Correa and Lewis appear to be the left side of the infield for the foreseeable future.

Lee’s clearest path to a regular spot in the Twins’ lineup, in 2024 and beyond, is at second base, where Edouard Julien is now taking over as the starter following the Jorge Polanco trade. Julien is one of the impact hitters around whom future Twins lineups can be built, and he’s made dramatic strides defensively just to be playable at second base, but Lee profiles as a much better fielder there.

Lee will continue to see plenty of action at shortstop this spring, and probably once the Triple-A season starts as well, because maintaining the ability to play there has value. He’ll also get reps at third base, where he dabbled at the end of last season with the St. Paul Saints. But for the first time as a pro, Lee will begin to see time at second base during Twins camp.

“We have five, six weeks,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “There’s plenty of time to get him work at second base. He’s taken balls fairly regularly at those other spots. I’m not going to hesitate. (Infield coach) Tony (Diaz) and the infield guys are going to work him pretty hard everywhere. And once the games start, we’re going to see him all over.”

And everyone involved, including Lee, seems to think it’ll be a smooth process thanks to his sure hands, steady footwork and natural instincts.

“I’m ready for the challenge,” said Lee, 23. “Second base, I just need to get better at turning double plays. It’s not that big of a difference. It is a shorter throw, and I think I have a pretty good arm and I like to use my arm when I can, but I still enjoy it a lot. You’re in the middle of the field, so it’s still in my eyes a premium position. You’re involved a lot in relays and double plays, a lot of action.”

At some point, as soon as this summer, the Twins could slide Julien over to first base (and/or to designated hitter) and make room for Lee as Correa’s double-play partner. Correa and Lewis on the left side, and Lee and Julien on the right side, could be an excellent long-term infield alignment that might be one of the league’s best, offensively and defensively.
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Gopher_In_NYC said:
Prescient post @From the Parkinglot regarding Kiriloff’s future at first.

This article on Brooks Lee receiving reps at 2nd as he may end up there in Mpls!

https://theathletic.com/5292288/202...prospect-position/?source=user_shared_articleTop prospect Brooks Lee is almost ready to be ‘the guy’ for Twins, but where?


FORT MYERS, Fla. — Brooks Lee had to think about it. When was the last time he played second base with any sort of regularity? He figures it was during college intrasquad games at Cal-Poly. But that’s about to change.

Less than 20 months after surprisingly landing with the Minnesota Twins as the eighth pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Lee is on the doorstep of the big leagues. The switch-hitting, career-long shortstop cemented his status as a consensus top 50 global prospect by reaching Triple A in his first full season of professional ball. But becoming the Twins’ long-term shortstop is unlikely with Carlos Correa signed through at least 2028.

When shortstops change positions, they tend to move to either second or third base, depending on their skill set. Twins officials have generally been split on which would fit Lee best, but with Royce Lewis getting comfortable at third base, that debate may already be over. Correa and Lewis appear to be the left side of the infield for the foreseeable future.

Lee’s clearest path to a regular spot in the Twins’ lineup, in 2024 and beyond, is at second base, where Edouard Julien is now taking over as the starter following the Jorge Polanco trade. Julien is one of the impact hitters around whom future Twins lineups can be built, and he’s made dramatic strides defensively just to be playable at second base, but Lee profiles as a much better fielder there.

Lee will continue to see plenty of action at shortstop this spring, and probably once the Triple-A season starts as well, because maintaining the ability to play there has value. He’ll also get reps at third base, where he dabbled at the end of last season with the St. Paul Saints. But for the first time as a pro, Lee will begin to see time at second base during Twins camp.

“We have five, six weeks,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “There’s plenty of time to get him work at second base. He’s taken balls fairly regularly at those other spots. I’m not going to hesitate. (Infield coach) Tony (Diaz) and the infield guys are going to work him pretty hard everywhere. And once the games start, we’re going to see him all over.”

And everyone involved, including Lee, seems to think it’ll be a smooth process thanks to his sure hands, steady footwork and natural instincts.

“I’m ready for the challenge,” said Lee, 23. “Second base, I just need to get better at turning double plays. It’s not that big of a difference. It is a shorter throw, and I think I have a pretty good arm and I like to use my arm when I can, but I still enjoy it a lot. You’re in the middle of the field, so it’s still in my eyes a premium position. You’re involved a lot in relays and double plays, a lot of action.”

At some point, as soon as this summer, the Twins could slide Julien over to first base (and/or to designated hitter) and make room for Lee as Correa’s double-play partner. Correa and Lewis on the left side, and Lee and Julien on the right side, could be an excellent long-term infield alignment that might be one of the league’s best, offensively and defensively.
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You also have Miranda hitting well so far. Not that hitting well in the preseason means anything, but it’s something. Just really too bad as AK could flat out hit, but his wrists just won’t let him.
 

Twins trade for pitcher with arm issues who experiences setback.


giphy (1).gif
 

as I see the deal with Seattle, the Twins gave up Polanco - who was about to be replaced anyway by Brooks Lee - and in return they got DeSclafani, Topa, two prospects and cash.

If DeSclafani's arm blows up, the Twins still got value out of the deal with Topa and Gonzalez. and that opens up a spot for Varland in the rotation.

yes - the optics are bad with trading for a pitcher with arm issues. but, I don't think DeCaf was the centerpiece of the trade - I think Topa and Gonzalez are the main pieces in the trade. DeCaf was a flyer. if his arm stays in one piece, great - Twins got more value. if his arm blows up, it really doesn't cost the Twins anything because the cash they got back in the deal covers his salary.
 

From the Parkinglot said:
You also have Miranda hitting well so far. Not that hitting well in the preseason means anything, but it’s something. Just really too bad as AK could flat out hit, but his wrists just won’t let him.
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Yes, could end up being a durability causality,

As Bud once quipped to Sid, regarding Rick Fenney, “Hell of a back WHEN he’s healthy.”
 

short ornery norwegian said:
as I see the deal with Seattle, the Twins gave up Polanco - who was about to be replaced anyway by Brooks Lee - and in return they got DeSclafani, Topa, two prospects and cash.

If DeSclafani's arm blows up, the Twins still got value out of the deal with Topa and Gonzalez. and that opens up a spot for Varland in the rotation.

yes - the optics are bad with trading for a pitcher with arm issues. but, I don't think DeCaf was the centerpiece of the trade - I think Topa and Gonzalez are the main pieces in the trade. DeCaf was a flyer. if his arm stays in one piece, great - Twins got more value. if his arm blows up, it really doesn't cost the Twins anything because the cash they got back in the deal covers his salary.
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Pitch perfect - your Spring Training is over!
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
Yes, could end up being a durability causality,

As Bud once quipped to Sid, regarding Rick Fenney, “Hell of a back WHEN he’s healthy.”
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and now I'm going to have Sid's voice in my head all day saying "Bud Grant always says that durability is just as important as ability...."
 



short ornery norwegian said:
as I see the deal with Seattle, the Twins gave up Polanco - who was about to be replaced anyway by Brooks Lee - and in return they got DeSclafani, Topa, two prospects and cash.

If DeSclafani's arm blows up, the Twins still got value out of the deal with Topa and Gonzalez. and that opens up a spot for Varland in the rotation.

yes - the optics are bad with trading for a pitcher with arm issues. but, I don't think DeCaf was the centerpiece of the trade - I think Topa and Gonzalez are the main pieces in the trade. DeCaf was a flyer. if his arm stays in one piece, great - Twins got more value. if his arm blows up, it really doesn't cost the Twins anything because the cash they got back in the deal covers his salary.
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I don't really care that he was part of the trade, but the Twins pretending he's one of their 5 starters when guys like Clevinger and Lorezen are still available is dumb. Sign one of them and if Disco can actually start some games in May/June fine. But you have to assume he gives you zero.
 



From the Parkinglot said:
Kirilloff better really hit otherwise his opportunities on this team are going to be limited. The defense just ain’t there and they already have a glut of lefties. Not saying he won’t make the team, but his at bats are gonna be limited if not hitting. It’s too bad about the injuries cause he swung like Mauer, but had more power.
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The odds are stacked heavily against him. When you get down to experimental surgery to fix issues, it's real hard to be optimistic about his future. And it's too bad, because he sure looked the part at the plate.
 


Gopher_In_NYC said:
It wouldn’t surprise me to see him make their roster and carve out a career going forward; as someone who learned many lessons the hard way, I’ll be rooting for Miggy.
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God, that would be so Minnesota. Gave him every chance in the book but he refused to get in shape as the money kept rolling in. I am not rooting for him as he never gave the Twins a professional effort.
 

Gopher_In_NYC said:
It wouldn’t surprise me to see him make their roster and carve out a career going forward; as someone who learned many lessons the hard way, I’ll be rooting for Miggy.
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It’s too bad it couldn’t have happened with the twins. If Joey Gallo can continue to get major league jobs there is no reason Sano can’t. Gallo’s defense ain’t that great to out him over the top of a guy like Sano.
 

TNGophfan said:
God, that would be so Minnesota. Gave him every chance in the book but he refused to get in shape as the money kept rolling in. I am not rooting for him as he never gave the Twins a professional effort.
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So you won’t be betting on him to win Comeback Player of the Year, then?
🤣
 


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