Did some AI analysis of the game (assuming Taylor out)

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FreeDC_CalAlum

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Market & context

  • Line/Total (latest): Minnesota -2.5, 41.5–42.5 depending on book; kick at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN in Berkeley. Low total = defensive, field-position game.

Unit vs unit (what changes without Taylor)


Minnesota offense vs Cal defense

  • Run game: Without Taylor’s explosive vision, Minnesota likely rides a committee (A.J. Turner/ Cam Davis/ Fame Ijeboi). Expect a drop in EPA/rush and explosive rate, more “stay-on-schedule” calls (zone/duo) rather than explosives. H1 edge remains because Cal LB Cade Uluave misses the first half (targeting), but the ceiling is lower without Taylor.
  • Pass game: RS-Fr Drake Lindsey has been efficient, but with fewer easy 2nd-and-shorts, Minnesota should lean heavier on play-action/quick RPOs and perimeter screens. Cal under Justin Wilcox will pattern-match and force long drives; once Uluave returns after halftime, hook/curl windows tighten. Edge H1: MIN small; H2: ~even.

Cal offense vs Minnesota defense

  • QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (true Fr): Flashed poise at Oregon State, but the first INT and stalled early drives vs TSU showed freshman variance. Minnesota’s defense is allowing minuscule yardage so far and has ball-skills in the secondary; they’ll muddy post-snap looks and bait outside throws. Edge: Minnesota defense.
  • Run game: RB Kendrick Raphael (131 yds vs TSU) is the stabilizer; if Cal can get 4–5 yds on early downs, they protect the QB and shorten the game. Minnesota’s run fits travel well; call it even to slight MIN.

Special teams / hidden yards

  • Cal showed willingness to use specials (fake punt) last week; in a low-total game, a single trick or return can swing win prob by ~5–7 ppts. Coverage and field position favor the more disciplined side; slight lean MIN, but variance is high.
Player vs player battlegrounds

  • MIN iOL vs Cal ILBs (no Uluave in H1): Minnesota must cash this 30 minutes of advantage; if they don’t, leverage flips.
  • MIN CBs (e.g., John Nestor) vs Cal boundary WRs (e.g., Trond Grizzell): Explosive-prevention vs freshman timing routes. One takeaway likely decides it.
  • Cal OT vs MIN edge pressure: Passing downs = simulated pressures; protect the rookie QB or live with a short field against you.

Schemes vs schemes (with Taylor out)

  • MIN O: More horizontal stretch (RPO/quick game) and PA off wide zone, but fewer true shot plays without RB gravity. Expect drive lengths to increase and FG attempts to matter.
  • CAL D (Wilcox): Match-zone/quarters to cap explosives; emphasize rush-lane discipline (his public gripe after TSU) to choke boot/PA. Uluave’s H2 return boosts underneath coverage and green-dog pressure.
  • CAL O: RPO/quick-game plus Raphael on early downs to keep JKS ahead of schedule; selected deep shots if MIN safeties get nosy.
  • MIN D: Late rotations/robber looks to test a freshman’s processing; hunt that one bad ball.
Strength of schedule & intangibles
  • Early numbers are opponent-inflated on both sides (FCS games for each); Cal’s road win at Oregon State is the best data point, but overall the samples are small. Gold Out at home and body-clock (9:30 p.m. CT) are real but modest edges.


Betting context (what the market implies)

  • -2.5 / 41.5–42.5 implies something like MIN 22–20. Removing Taylor lowers Minnesota’s offensive ceiling and increases the chance of field-goal trading. Market leans Under and tight margin, consistent with our matchup view.

Updated prediction (Taylor OUT)

  • Win probability: Minnesota 52%, Cal 48% (down a few points from prior view).
  • Game script:
    • H1: Minnesota still edges success rate via run structure vs. Uluave-less LB room; points are scarce.
    • H2: Uluave returns; Cal defense stiffens; one turnover or special-teams swing decides it.
  • Final score: Minnesota 19, California 17.
  • Totals/side lean: Under 41.5–42.5 (best number you can find). Side: Pass or MIN ML small; if you want derivative exposure, MIN 1H -0.5 makes sense given the H1 matchup.
Notes on availability

As of this morning, major outlets list Taylor as doubtful; if he unexpectedly does suit up, bump Minnesota’s win probability back ~2–3 pts and the median score toward 20–17 or 23–20.
 

I haven’t been paying close attention the first few weeks TBH but are the Gophers still running much RPO?

Someone correct me
 


I
GopherWeatherGuy said:
They haven't run much RPO for a couple of years
Click to expand...
It said this




Why I flagged RPO for this matchup


  • Taylor out = less downhill run threat. Without him, Minnesota loses its best “win the box on talent alone” weapon. That usually pushes an OC to look for easy yards with quick-hitters: bubbles, slants, stick concepts tied to zone looks. That’s RPO territory.
  • Cal’s first-half LB suspension (Uluave). A weakened 2nd level makes it attractive to tag RPO slants/bubbles behind play-action looks. Even if RPO hasn’t been their bread-and-butter, it’s a logical situational wrinkle.
  • Freshman QB management. With Lindsey, the staff has emphasized comfort throws. RPO tags let him get the ball out quickly if the run box is stacked — safer than asking him to read downfield.
Important distinction

  • I don’t think Minnesota suddenly becomes an RPO-heavy team. The core is still zone + play-action.
  • What I meant is: in this game, they’re more likely to sprinkle in RPO looks situationally (especially 1H, when Uluave is out), not that it will be the main offensive identity.
 

FreeDC_CalAlum said:
I

It said this




Why I flagged RPO for this matchup


  • Taylor out = less downhill run threat. Without him, Minnesota loses its best “win the box on talent alone” weapon. That usually pushes an OC to look for easy yards with quick-hitters: bubbles, slants, stick concepts tied to zone looks. That’s RPO territory.
  • Cal’s first-half LB suspension (Uluave). A weakened 2nd level makes it attractive to tag RPO slants/bubbles behind play-action looks. Even if RPO hasn’t been their bread-and-butter, it’s a logical situational wrinkle.
  • Freshman QB management. With Lindsey, the staff has emphasized comfort throws. RPO tags let him get the ball out quickly if the run box is stacked — safer than asking him to read downfield.
Important distinction

  • I don’t think Minnesota suddenly becomes an RPO-heavy team. The core is still zone + play-action.
  • What I meant is: in this game, they’re more likely to sprinkle in RPO looks situationally (especially 1H, when Uluave is out), not that it will be the main offensive identity.
Click to expand...
I think it can be hard to "sprinkle in" RPO. Our teams have tended to be RPO or not RPO. It takes a pretty significant time investment practice wise, just my 🪙🪙
 


FreeDC_CalAlum said:
I

It said this




Why I flagged RPO for this matchup


  • Taylor out = less downhill run threat. Without him, Minnesota loses its best “win the box on talent alone” weapon. That usually pushes an OC to look for easy yards with quick-hitters: bubbles, slants, stick concepts tied to zone looks. That’s RPO territory.
  • Cal’s first-half LB suspension (Uluave). A weakened 2nd level makes it attractive to tag RPO slants/bubbles behind play-action looks. Even if RPO hasn’t been their bread-and-butter, it’s a logical situational wrinkle.
  • Freshman QB management. With Lindsey, the staff has emphasized comfort throws. RPO tags let him get the ball out quickly if the run box is stacked — safer than asking him to read downfield.
Important distinction

  • I don’t think Minnesota suddenly becomes an RPO-heavy team. The core is still zone + play-action.
  • What I meant is: in this game, they’re more likely to sprinkle in RPO looks situationally (especially 1H, when Uluave is out), not that it will be the main offensive identity.
Click to expand...

It seems in this particular application LLMs are not ready for prime time. GIGO is a time honored truism yet to be defeated. Maybe in my lifetime.
 

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